Post-Mortem: 2022-23 Orlando Magic

[ElectricMayhem]

The Wizards can still tie for a spot, but they cannot tie break.

Here is the data from previous years' Post-Mortems:
2020-21:

Spoiler:

Post-Mortem Results I: GM Confidence Meter
Post-Mortem Results II: Coaching Confidence Meter
Post-Mortem Results III: Performance Compared to Expectations
Post-Mortem Results IV: Rising/Treadmill/Waning

2021-22:
2021-22 Post Mortem Final Summary

Team Name: Orlando Magic
Record at Time of Death: 34-45 (.430)
Head of Front Office: John Hammond (2017-)
Coach: Jamahl Mosley (2021-)

Offensive Rating: 26th
Defensive Rating: 17th
Rebound %: 11th
Turnover %: 24th

Front Office: Change or keep?
Coach: Change or keep?
Relative to expectations, how did they fare this year?
Rising, falling, or treadmill?
If you were in charge, what would you do this offseason?

Notes:
Players under contract next year:
Jonathan Isaac ($17m) (Partially Guaranteed)
Markelle Fultz ($17m) (Partially Guaranteed)
Wendell Carter Jr. ($13m)
Gary Harris ($13m) (Partially Guaranteed)
Paolo Banchero ($12m)
Jalen Suggs ($7m)
Franz Wagner ($6m)
Cole Anthony ($6m)
Chuma Okeke ($5m)
Bol Bol ($2m) (Partially Guaranteed)
Caleb Houston ($2m)

Team Options:
Michael Carter-Williams ($3m)
Goga Bitadze ($2m)
Admiral Schofield ($2m)

Player Options:

Free Agents:
Moritz Wagner
Kevon Harris
Jay Scrubb

Dead Money:


Previous Post-Mortems:
30. Houston Rockets
29. San Antonio Spurs
28. Detroit Pistons
27. Charlotte Hornets
26. Portland Trail Blazers
25. Indiana Pacers
24. Washington Wizards
23. Orlando Magic

[baldur]

So many similar levels of players at same positions . Consolidate them for starters - star players.

[ElectricMayhem]

Orlando hit on the top pick in a draft that had no clear top choice. They've got young talent in Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr. They've made good risks on injured players like Isaac, Fultz, and Bol. They made a giant step this year and a smaller step next year could put them in the playoffs. Hammond has been a part of building championship teams in Detroit and Milwaukee and he currently has Orlando on a solid path. He's staying. Mosley has Orlando playing better than most anyone expected. He's staying. Good vibes in Orlando.

[CallMeKahn]

Really hard to see Orlando making any FO/Coaching changes at the moment. That core is very close to being in the POs. They own all their future 1sts and have some underrated flexibility cap-wise. Just keep going.

[Godymas]

Great season from Orlando

Slam dunked the first pick, Banchero looks like a future star.

Recovered Markelle Fultz's career, looks like their starting PG of the future.

Slam dunked with Franz last year ofc, he looks like a future All Star, he had a nice little bit of growth this year.

Slam dunked the Vucevic trade, got Wendell Carter Jr. (ofc Franz was the guy they got with the pick) who's been great for them this year.

Performed waaaay above expectations. Borderline play-in team on what is essentially their first full year of rebuilding.

They got tons of nice trade pieces moving forwards. Suggs, Anthony, Bol Bol, all these guys have shown value on the Magic. Bol Bol might be a piece they choose to keep. I can see them moving one of their guards out.

The only thing they could have done better would have been to draft Josh Giddey instead of Suggs. That would have been absolutely monstrous.

The Jon Isaac situation sucks, it's hard to blame anyone on the Magic for what happened. They had a guy that was a generational defensive prospect, showed good potential, tossed him a contract, and it's been injury after injury. At this point he'll be lucky to play in the NBA again considering how many injuries have stacked up.

They don't need to draft in the high lottery anymore. Paolo and Franz is an amazing tandem of size, Fultz serves as the floor general for these 2. Wendell Carter their starting Center. All they need is a nice sharp shooter which is easily found in the 5-15 range.

Orlando is an exciting team moving forward. Jamahl Mosley is a young coach learning with this young core. Expect them to be easily a play-in team next season, potentially knocking at a playoff appearance. Especially if Franz and Paolo continue to take leaps while Fultz masters his game.

[Jadoogar]

Magic look like a real rising team. They are my favourite FVV destination, it would be good for them to have a veteran point guard.
The front court is set with Franz, Paolo and WCJ. Fultz looks to be turning a corner as well, adding a 3+D veteran point guard could really round out the lineup.

[3ddman23]

How can this season be looked at anything but successful. No one really had them winning more then 20-25 games. They have been playing there youth all season and we have seen real progress from multiple players on the team.

They have been a top 12 team record wise sine the beginning of December, if it wasn't for a 5-20 start (fultz was out injured) this team would be firmly in the playoffs mix all on the backs of a rookie and second year player.

This team has a chance to make a splash this off season and catapult themselves into potentially the top 6 in the east if they make the right moves.

They have cap space, they have draft assets and young players( let's not even mention if they Jump into the top 3 of the draft). Out of all the young teams I think the magic are being set up the right way, and the trajectory is up.

They need a real upgrade at the starting sg spot. I would look at names like vassell, Poole, Trent Jr, Simons.

Fultz, cole
Starting sg, Suggs
Franz
Paolo
Wendell

Fill out the bench with a couple of more vets and draft picks and I think you have something cooking.

[Pointgod]

Magic did what they needed to do this year and actually showed some team growth. They have a high lottery pick and another low lottery to mid first round pick. They’re set for the future for at least 2 positions. Franchise player in Banchero and future all star in Franz. Now it’s time to start winning. They should follow the OKC model and get one more tall ball handling player. Focus on getting some shooting around Franz and Banchero. I think they should move Suggs even if it’s a little early because I don’t think they absolutely need him. They should move Cole Anthony because I hate his game. If Magic could put themselves in a position to land Scoot through the lottery or trade, that’s the perfect way to complete their rebuild.

[Ni Da Ye]

So many similar levels of players at same positions . Consolidate them for starters - star players.

We are more than happy to make a trade, they can have Irving.

[bmurph128]

Really encouraging season....they have some players.

They remind of the Cavs a bit from last year and I'd make the same type of move if a star is available....I think their supporting cast is ready.

[cupcakesnake]

The Paolo/Franz thing is so tantalizing right now. I'm pretty sure we've never seen a young duo with this much skill and size. 2x 6'9"+ over 220lbs who can both dribble, attack, and pass. Paolo's physical dominance gives him the higher ceiling, and Franz has the high floor since he has way fewer holes in his games (especially as a defender and shooter).

Individually, I really like a lot of the Magic's other pieces too. Fultz and Wendell specifically, but I could throw in Suggs (or if you really want to go crazy: Bol and Isaac). ........BUT!

I think the long-term fit questions are ready to kick in next year. The Fultz/Franz/Paolo/Wendell quartet has great defensive potential but the lack of shooting is going to make this lineup impossible. Paolo flat out had a pretty disappointing season in terms of shooting the ball. He wasn't supposed to be a good shooter as a rookie, but for him to regress from his college percentages is what it is. Wendell and Franz are average (can they bump that up a bit next year?), Fultz plays inside the 3-point line. Suggs isn't the answer to this specific question because he comes in as a total non-scoring threat.

Can Paolo/Franz/Wendell become good enough shooters to play with Fultz in the long term? Right now it seems like the Magic need a lot of shooting in the backcourt to make their core pieces viable on offense.

This team is young so I'm not calling this situation desperate. But I think these players could be ready to compete right away so I'm not sure how much they want to hamstring that process by playing lineups that don't really have a chance to produce efficient offense. Basically I love each of the top-4 core pieces but don't see them fitting together going forward without some really fortunate internal development.

[BloodNinja]

They'll be a playoff team next season for sure

[hippesthippo]

The Paolo/Franz thing is so tantalizing right now. I'm pretty sure we've never seen a young duo with this much skill and size. 2x 6'9"+ over 220lbs who can both dribble, attack, and pass. Paolo's physical dominance gives him the higher ceiling, and Franz has the high floor since he has way fewer holes in his games (especially as a defender and shooter).

Individually, I really like a lot of the Magic's other pieces too. Fultz and Wendell specifically, but I could throw in Suggs (or if you really want to go crazy: Bol and Isaac). ........BUT!

I think the long-term fit questions are ready to kick in next year. The Fultz/Franz/Paolo/Wendell quartet has great defensive potential but the lack of shooting is going to make this lineup impossible. Paolo flat out had a pretty disappointing season in terms of shooting the ball. He wasn't supposed to be a good shooter as a rookie, but for him to regress from his college percentages is what it is. Wendell and Franz are average (can they bump that up a bit next year?), Fultz plays inside the 3-point line. Suggs isn't the answer to this specific question because he comes in as a total non-scoring threat.

Can Paolo/Franz/Wendell become good enough shooters to play with Fultz in the long term? Right now it seems like the Magic need a lot of shooting in the backcourt to make their core pieces viable on offense.

This team is young so I'm not calling this situation desperate. But I think these players could be ready to compete right away so I'm not sure how much they want to hamstring that process by playing lineups that don't really have a chance to produce efficient offense. Basically I love each of the top-4 core pieces but don't see them fitting together going forward without some really fortunate internal development.

Mostly agree. I just don't see the fit with Fultz. I'd try to move on from him this Summer while his value is at it's highest.

[Karate Diop]

They have some great pieces but they're missing a glue guy to pull everything together...

[cupcakesnake]

The Paolo/Franz thing is so tantalizing right now. I'm pretty sure we've never seen a young duo with this much skill and size. 2x 6'9"+ over 220lbs who can both dribble, attack, and pass. Paolo's physical dominance gives him the higher ceiling, and Franz has the high floor since he has way fewer holes in his games (especially as a defender and shooter).

Individually, I really like a lot of the Magic's other pieces too. Fultz and Wendell specifically, but I could throw in Suggs (or if you really want to go crazy: Bol and Isaac). ........BUT!

I think the long-term fit questions are ready to kick in next year. The Fultz/Franz/Paolo/Wendell quartet has great defensive potential but the lack of shooting is going to make this lineup impossible. Paolo flat out had a pretty disappointing season in terms of shooting the ball. He wasn't supposed to be a good shooter as a rookie, but for him to regress from his college percentages is what it is. Wendell and Franz are average (can they bump that up a bit next year?), Fultz plays inside the 3-point line. Suggs isn't the answer to this specific question because he comes in as a total non-scoring threat.

Can Paolo/Franz/Wendell become good enough shooters to play with Fultz in the long term? Right now it seems like the Magic need a lot of shooting in the backcourt to make their core pieces viable on offense.

This team is young so I'm not calling this situation desperate. But I think these players could be ready to compete right away so I'm not sure how much they want to hamstring that process by playing lineups that don't really have a chance to produce efficient offense. Basically I love each of the top-4 core pieces but don't see them fitting together going forward without some really fortunate internal development.

Mostly agree. I just don't see the fit with Fultz. I'd try to move on from him this Summer while his value is at it's highest.

I don't like it though!
Fultz was a pretty intriguing scorer inside the arc this year. He gets to the rim, has the floater game, and can counter into pull-ups anywhere inside the 3-point line. On top of that he finds guys with the pass. Wrap that up into his herky-jerky, unpredictable game, and that's a pretty interesting guard. The fact that he did it on one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA is intriguing.

I wonder if this is his highest value. Another injury could tank it obviously. I wonder how other teams feel about him this year. A healthy year of doing this might have people seeing poor man's Shai?

I'm not obsessed with the Magic getting the fit perfect while their players are so young. But it concerns me in the long term.

[hippesthippo]

The Paolo/Franz thing is so tantalizing right now. I'm pretty sure we've never seen a young duo with this much skill and size. 2x 6'9"+ over 220lbs who can both dribble, attack, and pass. Paolo's physical dominance gives him the higher ceiling, and Franz has the high floor since he has way fewer holes in his games (especially as a defender and shooter).

Individually, I really like a lot of the Magic's other pieces too. Fultz and Wendell specifically, but I could throw in Suggs (or if you really want to go crazy: Bol and Isaac). ........BUT!

I think the long-term fit questions are ready to kick in next year. The Fultz/Franz/Paolo/Wendell quartet has great defensive potential but the lack of shooting is going to make this lineup impossible. Paolo flat out had a pretty disappointing season in terms of shooting the ball. He wasn't supposed to be a good shooter as a rookie, but for him to regress from his college percentages is what it is. Wendell and Franz are average (can they bump that up a bit next year?), Fultz plays inside the 3-point line. Suggs isn't the answer to this specific question because he comes in as a total non-scoring threat.

Can Paolo/Franz/Wendell become good enough shooters to play with Fultz in the long term? Right now it seems like the Magic need a lot of shooting in the backcourt to make their core pieces viable on offense.

This team is young so I'm not calling this situation desperate. But I think these players could be ready to compete right away so I'm not sure how much they want to hamstring that process by playing lineups that don't really have a chance to produce efficient offense. Basically I love each of the top-4 core pieces but don't see them fitting together going forward without some really fortunate internal development.

Mostly agree. I just don't see the fit with Fultz. I'd try to move on from him this Summer while his value is at it's highest.

I don't like it though!
Fultz was a pretty intriguing scorer inside the arc this year. He gets to the rim, has the floater game, and can counter into pull-ups anywhere inside the 3-point line. On top of that he finds guys with the pass. Wrap that up into his herky-jerky, unpredictable game, and that's a pretty interesting guard. The fact that he did it on one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA is intriguing.

I wonder if this is his highest value. Another injury could tank it obviously. I wonder how other teams feel about him this year. A healthy year of doing this might have people seeing poor man's Shai?

I'm not obsessed with the Magic getting the fit perfect while their players are so young. But it concerns me in the long term.

I like Fultz. I do. He's coming off a great season. Look at his contract, though. Next year it's $17m, but only partially guaranteed. Considering his level of play this year, I think that has value to quite a few other teams. However, if you're the Magic what kind of contract are you prepared to give Fultz when his deal is up considering his outside game and injury history?

[cupcakesnake]

Mostly agree. I just don't see the fit with Fultz. I'd try to move on from him this Summer while his value is at it's highest.

I don't like it though!
Fultz was a pretty intriguing scorer inside the arc this year. He gets to the rim, has the floater game, and can counter into pull-ups anywhere inside the 3-point line. On top of that he finds guys with the pass. Wrap that up into his herky-jerky, unpredictable game, and that's a pretty interesting guard. The fact that he did it on one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA is intriguing.

I wonder if this is his highest value. Another injury could tank it obviously. I wonder how other teams feel about him this year. A healthy year of doing this might have people seeing poor man's Shai?

I'm not obsessed with the Magic getting the fit perfect while their players are so young. But it concerns me in the long term.

I like Fultz. I do. He's coming off a great season. Look at his contract, though. Next year it's $17m, but only partially guaranteed. Considering his level of play this year, I think that has value to quite a few other teams. However, if you're the Magic what kind of contract are you prepared to give Fultz when his deal is up considering his outside game and injury history?[/quote

I imagine there will be extension negotiations this offseason. His agent will be curious to see what he can get and weigh that against his potential value on the open market. Orlando will look to get a team-friendly contract due to Fultz's injury history and their role in his comeback. Players love to bet on themselves, so it could be that Fultz and his agent insist on something too rich for the Magic's taste. Or maybe Fultz's experience with how delicate an NBA career makes them agree to something reasonable.

I really don't think Fultz or his people will be happy rolling into the new season with only a non-guaranteed contract after Fultz's solid play this season. But this is a difficult one to gauge. He missed most of 2 seasons but was fairly healthy this year. Orlando's cap sheet is clean, so I can see them taking a small risk on Fultz.

[hippesthippo]

I don't like it though!
Fultz was a pretty intriguing scorer inside the arc this year. He gets to the rim, has the floater game, and can counter into pull-ups anywhere inside the 3-point line. On top of that he finds guys with the pass. Wrap that up into his herky-jerky, unpredictable game, and that's a pretty interesting guard. The fact that he did it on one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA is intriguing.

I wonder if this is his highest value. Another injury could tank it obviously. I wonder how other teams feel about him this year. A healthy year of doing this might have people seeing poor man's Shai?

I'm not obsessed with the Magic getting the fit perfect while their players are so young. But it concerns me in the long term.

I like Fultz. I do. He's coming off a great season. Look at his contract, though. Next year it's $17m, but only partially guaranteed. Considering his level of play this year, I think that has value to quite a few other teams. However, if you're the Magic what kind of contract are you prepared to give Fultz when his deal is up considering his outside game and injury history?

I imagine there will be extension negotiations this offseason. His agent will be curious to see what he can get and weigh that against his potential value on the open market. Orlando will look to get a team-friendly contract due to Fultz's injury history and their role in his comeback. Players love to bet on themselves, so it could be that Fultz and his agent insist on something too rich for the Magic's taste. Or maybe Fultz's experience with how delicate an NBA career makes them agree to something reasonable.

I really don't think Fultz or his people will be happy rolling into the new season with only a non-guaranteed contract after Fultz's solid play this season. But this is a difficult one to gauge. He missed most of 2 seasons but was fairly healthy this year. Orlando's cap sheet is clean, so I can see them taking a small risk on Fultz.

Fair points. It will be interesting to see how his contract ends up playing out. The Magic have so much potential to improve considering their young talent and, as you noted, their clean cap situation. Isaac's similar [but opposite] situation only increases the intrigue. It'd just be a shame to see the Magic dragged down by injury again.

I just find it doubtful that Fultz is willing to except the number that I'd be willing to risk on him if I'm Orlando.

I tried cleaning up the quote situation, but it's not cooperating.

[FeatheryTouch]

The Magic are in a really good spot, but to take the next step they really need to improve their team shooting and scoring from the guard spots.

An upgrade on Suggs/Harris at SG would be perfect, then you can move those guys to the bench unit or use them as trade chips.

If I'm them I'm hanging on to Fultz as starting PG.

If Isaac isn't going to be reliable moving forward Orlando could also use some interior defense and rim protection.

[AddiFB]

People need to realize that Markelle means more to the Magic than just stats and salary numbers.

The guy is the frigging heart and soul of this team.

You can't put that into stats or put a dollar sign on that.