Your unpopular takes? (PC Board Edition)

[70sFan]

I mean, any attempt to measure player's goodness by one metric is very flawed and often misleading. I'd say we have much bigger problem about it with the use of "ppg + TS%" in recent years.

Don't know why it's focused on Nash though.

[eminence]

I mean, any attempt to measure player's goodness by one metric is very flawed and often misleading. I'd say we have much bigger problem about it with the use of "ppg + TS%" in recent years.

Don't know why it's focused on Nash though.

I don't know if there's any PC board regulars who seriously use TSA (basically) to do their offensive player rankings in a one metric folly type situation.

There seems to me to be a fair number who will say - offensive on-court rating is king, or at least weight it very very very heavily.

This is not to say Nash doesn't have an argument. I think he has quite a strong one, and is my current offensive GOAT - prime/peak at least, Oscar/LeBron/someone else may be ahead in career offensive value, but not something I've ever thought about too much.

[70sFan]

I mean, any attempt to measure player's goodness by one metric is very flawed and often misleading. I'd say we have much bigger problem about it with the use of "ppg + TS%" in recent years.

Don't know why it's focused on Nash though.

I don't know if there's any PC board regulars who seriously use TSA (basically) to do their offensive player rankings in a one metric folly type situation.

There seems to me to be a fair number who will say - offensive on-court rating is king, or at least weight it very very very heavily.

This is not to say Nash doesn't have an argument. I think he has quite a strong one, and is my current offensive GOAT - prime/peak at least, Oscar/LeBron/someone else may be ahead in career offensive value, but not something I've every thought about too much.

I have heard recently that Bill Russell was a roleplayer in 1969, so...

[eminence]

I mean, any attempt to measure player's goodness by one metric is very flawed and often misleading. I'd say we have much bigger problem about it with the use of "ppg + TS%" in recent years.

Don't know why it's focused on Nash though.

I don't know if there's any PC board regulars who seriously use TSA (basically) to do their offensive player rankings in a one metric folly type situation.

There seems to me to be a fair number who will say - offensive on-court rating is king, or at least weight it very very very heavily.

This is not to say Nash doesn't have an argument. I think he has quite a strong one, and is my current offensive GOAT - prime/peak at least, Oscar/LeBron/someone else may be ahead in career offensive value, but not something I've every thought about too much.

I have heard recently that Bill Russell was a roleplayer in 1969, so...

On this board? Tragic. I'd recommend not engaging that poster (assuming they aren't a new poster just starting following basketball).

[penbeast0]

I mean, any attempt to measure player's goodness by one metric is very flawed and often misleading. I'd say we have much bigger problem about it with the use of "ppg + TS%" in recent years.

Don't know why it's focused on Nash though.

Maybe because Nash is arguably the worst defensive player in the top 50, the way Russell is arguably the worst scorer, so they get the extremes of these differential ways of thinking about value.

[eminence]

How unpopular is this one - Since his rise in '13 Stephen Curry has provided more cumulative basketball value than any other player in the league (notably - more than LeBron).

[Joao Saraiva]

1. Billups is a top 50 player ever. He should be ranked above Allen Iverson and Isiah Thomas to start. I think he's very underrated, even if people recognize his value.

2. Hakeem Olajuwon has the best playoff run ever in 94, and depending on how much you value playoffs he has a great case for the best peak ever.

3. Kobe Bryant was a better player than Larry Bird.

4. Per position, Andrei Kirilenko should be ranked among the best defenders ever.

5. LBJ's contributions on defense in his earlier years (07-13) got underappreciated with time and he should be regarded as en elite defender in that period.

[f4p]

How unpopular is this one - Since his rise in '13 Stephen Curry has provided more cumulative basketball value than any other player in the league (notably - more than LeBron).

other than the 2016 regular season, he hasn't been better than lebron at any point in that stretch so he can't have provided more value. and if we're just specifically talking about value as adding odds to win a championship, then steph would have to play until the sun explodes to overcome 2013/14/15/16/17/18/20 playoff lebron.

[AEnigma]

How unpopular is this one - Since his rise in '13 Stephen Curry has provided more cumulative basketball value than any other player in the league (notably - more than LeBron).

It is a defensible enough regular season take; Lebron does have a 2500 minute advantage over that period, but at some point the advantage would go to Curry, and while 2013 is an ambitious starting point, you can make a case for it all the same. Curry is indeed one of the most impactful regular season players ever.

I do not think it is particularly defensible in the postseason though — and even if we judge them in tandem, Lebron’s minute advantage extends by another thousand before we get into the question of how to weigh postseason value provided against regular season value provided.

[Joao Saraiva]

How unpopular is this one - Since his rise in '13 Stephen Curry has provided more cumulative basketball value than any other player in the league (notably - more than LeBron).

I'd have to check but it's close. LeBron certainly didn't add a ton of value after 2020 since he spent a ton of time injured. I don't remember exactly how much he missed but... hasn't Curry had seasons of not adding so much value too?

I'll probably go ahead and say in the last 5 years Giannis did add the most value of any player to his NBA career.

[LA Bird]

I mean, any attempt to measure player's goodness by one metric is very flawed and often misleading. I'd say we have much bigger problem about it with the use of "ppg + TS%" in recent years.

Agreed. PPG + TS% got pushed so hard by Rockets fans during Harden's MVP campaign in 2017 that it became the most mainstream analytics even though it's not even an advanced stat. I feel like that's when some people started using TS% synonymously with the term impact even though it had nothing to do with it, all while ignoring +/- numbers. Though I would say this is a much bigger problem elsewhere at like reddit than the PC board.

How unpopular is this one - Since his rise in '13 Stephen Curry has provided more cumulative basketball value than any other player in the league (notably - more than LeBron).

Regular season only, I think many would agree but LeBron would still be ahead once you include the playoffs.

[eminence]

How unpopular is this one - Since his rise in '13 Stephen Curry has provided more cumulative basketball value than any other player in the league (notably - more than LeBron).

other than the 2016 regular season, he hasn't been better than lebron at any point in that stretch so he can't have provided more value. and if we're just specifically talking about value as adding odds to win a championship, then steph would have to play until the sun explodes to overcome 2013/14/15/16/17/18/20 playoff lebron.

Umm, '22 LeBron over '22 Curry is certainly a take, way hotter than mine I'd say (I'd also call '19 and '21 not particularly close in Currys favor).

[f4p]

How unpopular is this one - Since his rise in '13 Stephen Curry has provided more cumulative basketball value than any other player in the league (notably - more than LeBron).

I'd have to check but it's close. LeBron certainly didn't add a ton of value after 2020 since he spent a ton of time injured. I don't remember exactly how much he missed but... hasn't Curry had seasons of not adding so much value too?

I'll probably go ahead and say in the last 5 years Giannis did add the most value of any player to his NBA career.

steph has only played 27 more games than lebron the last 3 years. and that's coming off a 3 year stretch where lebron played 80 more than steph.

[eminence]

How unpopular is this one - Since his rise in '13 Stephen Curry has provided more cumulative basketball value than any other player in the league (notably - more than LeBron).

It is a defensible enough regular season take; Lebron does have a 2500 minute advantage over that period, but at some point the advantage would go to Curry, and while 2013 is an ambitious starting point, you can make a case for it all the same. Curry is indeed one of the most impactful regular season players ever.

I do not think it is particularly defensible in the postseason though — and even if we judge them in tandem, Lebron’s minute advantage extends by another thousand before we get into the question of how to weigh postseason value provided against regular season value provided.

I went with the most ambitious starting point to be the least popular (and that I still believe to be true - though admittedly by a narrow margin). It is still quite favorable to Curry of course, he can't touch LeBron for career value (very few can). From '13 onwards I very narrowly prefer Steph as of now, and it's close enough it could flip depending on how this season finishes up. If I'd gone with '14 I wouldn't consider it particularly close.

I would say Curry overtook LeBron in the RS already in '14 (in large part due to LeBron having a bit of a down RS, but making this now 9 straight RSs where each played a notable number of games that I've preferred Curry - obviously '20 is a huge edge to LeBron, and LeBron overall ahead in '18 due to minutes, but I preferred Curry when he played). Some of those by quite small margins ('14/'23 most notably), but still true for all imo.

In the playoffs I agree that LeBron makes up ground, but it's a lot of ground to make up, and I'm more impressed by Currys runs than some it seems.

For full seasons I wind up preferring Steph in 5 of the finished seasons ('15/'17'/'19/'21/'22) and LeBron in the other 5 seasons. Curry slightly in the season to date.

[f4p]

How unpopular is this one - Since his rise in '13 Stephen Curry has provided more cumulative basketball value than any other player in the league (notably - more than LeBron).

other than the 2016 regular season, he hasn't been better than lebron at any point in that stretch so he can't have provided more value. and if we're just specifically talking about value as adding odds to win a championship, then steph would have to play until the sun explodes to overcome 2013/14/15/16/17/18/20 playoff lebron.

Umm, '22 LeBron over '22 Curry is certainly a take, way hotter than mine I'd say (I'd also call '19 and '21 not particularly close in Currys favor).

is this strictly just a health thing? i don't think anyone would take curry for a playoff series over lebron for any of these years. it's not like their ages are so much different that there's reason to think lebron has fallen behind steph (since he was quite a bit ahead in their primes/peaks).


'22 - games played wasn't that different and while curry had his worst regular season since his rookie year, lebron still looked pretty good and would have won the scoring title if he had played another game. steph had a good playoffs, but his numbers (at least box score stuff) were basically only on par with lebron's regular season numbers, so unless we're just crediting steph with having a good enough team to make the playoffs, then i don't see the advantage for steph (and then steph would lose '21 for not being in the playoffs).

'19 looks pretty even and then steph doesn't elevate in the playoffs so again, is this just advantage steph because he played slightly more? that would make the "cumulative value since 2013" hard for steph since he's played a lot less than lebron.

'21 - steph slightly better numbers in the regular season and lebron was injured/not good in the playoffs so i guess steph could get a season advantage over lebron, but again is anyone really taking steph over lebron for a playoff series (i.e. the championship odds argument)? lebron won the play-in game.

[eminence]

other than the 2016 regular season, he hasn't been better than lebron at any point in that stretch so he can't have provided more value. and if we're just specifically talking about value as adding odds to win a championship, then steph would have to play until the sun explodes to overcome 2013/14/15/16/17/18/20 playoff lebron.

Umm, '22 LeBron over '22 Curry is certainly a take, way hotter than mine I'd say (I'd also call '19 and '21 not particularly close in Currys favor).

is this strictly just a health thing? i don't think anyone would take curry for a playoff series over lebron for any of these years. it's not like their ages are so much different that there's reason to think lebron has fallen behind steph (since he was quite a bit ahead in their primes/peaks).


'22 - games played wasn't that different and while curry had his worst regular season since his rookie year, lebron still looked pretty good and would have won the scoring title if he had played another game. steph had a good playoffs, but his numbers (at least box score stuff) were basically only on par with lebron's regular season numbers, so unless we're just crediting steph with having a good enough team to make the playoffs, then i don't see the advantage for steph (and then steph would lose '21 for not being in the playoffs).

'19 looks pretty even and then steph doesn't elevate in the playoffs so again, is this just advantage steph because he played slightly more? that would make the "cumulative value since 2013" hard for steph since he's played a lot less than lebron.

'21 - steph slightly better numbers in the regular season and lebron was injured/not good in the playoffs so i guess steph could get a season advantage over lebron, but again is anyone really taking steph over lebron for a playoff series (i.e. the championship odds argument)? lebron won the play-in game.

No, LeBrons level of play in those 3 seasons was not particularly close to Steph.

[f4p]

Umm, '22 LeBron over '22 Curry is certainly a take, way hotter than mine I'd say (I'd also call '19 and '21 not particularly close in Currys favor).

is this strictly just a health thing? i don't think anyone would take curry for a playoff series over lebron for any of these years. it's not like their ages are so much different that there's reason to think lebron has fallen behind steph (since he was quite a bit ahead in their primes/peaks).


'22 - games played wasn't that different and while curry had his worst regular season since his rookie year, lebron still looked pretty good and would have won the scoring title if he had played another game. steph had a good playoffs, but his numbers (at least box score stuff) were basically only on par with lebron's regular season numbers, so unless we're just crediting steph with having a good enough team to make the playoffs, then i don't see the advantage for steph (and then steph would lose '21 for not being in the playoffs).

'19 looks pretty even and then steph doesn't elevate in the playoffs so again, is this just advantage steph because he played slightly more? that would make the "cumulative value since 2013" hard for steph since he's played a lot less than lebron.

'21 - steph slightly better numbers in the regular season and lebron was injured/not good in the playoffs so i guess steph could get a season advantage over lebron, but again is anyone really taking steph over lebron for a playoff series (i.e. the championship odds argument)? lebron won the play-in game.

No, LeBrons level of play in those 3 seasons was not particularly close to Steph.

i mean, no. lebron had a significant edge on steph at their peaks, which arguably happened at the same time if you think 2016/17 lebron was his peak. and while lebron has gotten older, so has steph. so it's hard to see how steph has not only closed the large gap, and then not only evened it up, but then surpassed lebron by some significant margin. especially since you are just making this a "quality of play" argument and not knocking lebron for missing games in 2019 and 2021.

2022 lebron had a much better regular season than 2022 curry. this doesn't seem debatable. and 2014 is a huge advantage to lebron. we're still talking about almost 30 PER lebron one year removed from arguably his peak regular season. even if it was a snub, steph isn't getting overlooked for the ASG if he was on lebron's level. and 2017 is also tough to see for steph given how much of a step back he took in the regular season. way worse stats and his team won 6 less games even after adding KD.

2018 and 2019 steph was on teams that won 58 and 57 games, despite massive amounts of talent. he was on just as much cruise control as lebron has ever been.

as far as the playoffs, unless this is just some 1 to 1 comparison where 82 games of regular season is compared to ~20 games of playoffs, with no regard for the fact that for both of these guys their whole season revolves around the playoffs, then the ground lebron makes up is just too much to ignore.

in this entire period, does steph have a playoff run that would be as good as 2013/14/15/16/17/18/20 for lebron? the only one that might would be 2017, and that's only if i ignore that it is by far steph's best playoffs in by far the least pressure-packed scenario, calling into question how real it was and how much it really affected championship odds (he could have played way worse and the warriors still would have cruised). and after 2017 nothing else would crack lebron's top 10 playoff runs. that's simply too much value at the most important time of the year to compared to some slight extra regular season value with lebron on cruise control.

[jalengreen]

Interesting, I wonder what a poll for this Curry v LeBron take would look like. I think it's pretty clearly LeBron, but this *is* an unpopular take thread.

[eminence]

is this strictly just a health thing? i don't think anyone would take curry for a playoff series over lebron for any of these years. it's not like their ages are so much different that there's reason to think lebron has fallen behind steph (since he was quite a bit ahead in their primes/peaks).


'22 - games played wasn't that different and while curry had his worst regular season since his rookie year, lebron still looked pretty good and would have won the scoring title if he had played another game. steph had a good playoffs, but his numbers (at least box score stuff) were basically only on par with lebron's regular season numbers, so unless we're just crediting steph with having a good enough team to make the playoffs, then i don't see the advantage for steph (and then steph would lose '21 for not being in the playoffs).

'19 looks pretty even and then steph doesn't elevate in the playoffs so again, is this just advantage steph because he played slightly more? that would make the "cumulative value since 2013" hard for steph since he's played a lot less than lebron.

'21 - steph slightly better numbers in the regular season and lebron was injured/not good in the playoffs so i guess steph could get a season advantage over lebron, but again is anyone really taking steph over lebron for a playoff series (i.e. the championship odds argument)? lebron won the play-in game.

No, LeBrons level of play in those 3 seasons was not particularly close to Steph.

i mean, no. lebron had a significant edge on steph at their peaks, which arguably happened at the same time if you think 2016/17 lebron was his peak. and while lebron has gotten older, so has steph. so it's hard to see how steph has not only closed the large gap, and then not only evened it up, but then surpassed lebron by some significant margin. especially since you are just making this a "quality of play" argument and not knocking lebron for missing games in 2019 and 2021.

2022 lebron had a much better regular season than 2022 curry. this doesn't seem debatable. and 2014 is a huge advantage to lebron. we're still talking about almost 30 PER lebron one year removed from arguably his peak regular season. even if it was a snub, steph isn't getting overlooked for the ASG if he was on lebron's level. and 2017 is also tough to see for steph given how much of a step back he took in the regular season. way worse stats and his team won 6 less games even after adding KD.

2018 and 2019 steph was on teams that won 58 and 57 games, despite massive amounts of talent. he was on just as much cruise control as lebron has ever been.

as far as the playoffs, unless this is just some 1 to 1 comparison where 82 games of regular season is compared to ~20 games of playoffs, with no regard for the fact that for both of these guys their whole season revolves around the playoffs, then the ground lebron makes up is just too much to ignore.

in this entire period, does steph have a playoff run that would be as good as 2013/14/15/16/17/18/20 for lebron? the only one that might would be 2017, and that's only if i ignore that it is by far steph's best playoffs in by far the least pressure-packed scenario, calling into question how real it was and how much it really affected championship odds (he could have played way worse and the warriors still would have cruised). and after 2017 nothing else would crack lebron's top 10 playoff runs. that's simply too much value at the most important time of the year to compared to some slight extra regular season value with lebron on cruise control.

I've got '09/'12/'13 as LeBrons top 3 seasons. '16/'17 contending with '10 to round out the top 5.

'22 LeBron being 'much better' than '22 Steph for the RS is so far out there I don't think I can have a serious discussion with you my man.

LeBron plays 56 games on a 33 win team, they are -2.1 with him on court, a +2.1 on/off. Posting a +0.31 RAPM, good for 182nd in the league.

Steph plays 64 games on a 53 win team, they are +10.1 with him on court, a +10.0 on/off. +3.67 RAPM, good for 2nd in the league.

[AEnigma]

No, LeBrons level of play in those 3 seasons was not particularly close to Steph.

i mean, no. lebron had a significant edge on steph at their peaks, which arguably happened at the same time if you think 2016/17 lebron was his peak. and while lebron has gotten older, so has steph. so it's hard to see how steph has not only closed the large gap, and then not only evened it up, but then surpassed lebron by some significant margin. especially since you are just making this a "quality of play" argument and not knocking lebron for missing games in 2019 and 2021.

2022 lebron had a much better regular season than 2022 curry. this doesn't seem debatable. and 2014 is a huge advantage to lebron. we're still talking about almost 30 PER lebron one year removed from arguably his peak regular season. even if it was a snub, steph isn't getting overlooked for the ASG if he was on lebron's level. and 2017 is also tough to see for steph given how much of a step back he took in the regular season. way worse stats and his team won 6 less games even after adding KD.

2018 and 2019 steph was on teams that won 58 and 57 games, despite massive amounts of talent. he was on just as much cruise control as lebron has ever been.

as far as the playoffs, unless this is just some 1 to 1 comparison where 82 games of regular season is compared to ~20 games of playoffs, with no regard for the fact that for both of these guys their whole season revolves around the playoffs, then the ground lebron makes up is just too much to ignore.

in this entire period, does steph have a playoff run that would be as good as 2013/14/15/16/17/18/20 for lebron? the only one that might would be 2017, and that's only if i ignore that it is by far steph's best playoffs in by far the least pressure-packed scenario, calling into question how real it was and how much it really affected championship odds (he could have played way worse and the warriors still would have cruised). and after 2017 nothing else would crack lebron's top 10 playoff runs. that's simply too much value at the most important time of the year to compared to some slight extra regular season value with lebron on cruise control.

I've got '09/'12/'13 as LeBrons top 3 seasons. '16/'17 contending with '10 to round out the top 5.

'22 LeBron being 'much better' than '22 Steph for the RS is so far out there I don't think I can have a serious discussion with you my man.

LeBron plays 56 games on a 33 win team, they are -2.1 with him on court, a +2.1 on/off. Posting a +0.31 RAPM, good for 182nd in the league.

Steph plays 64 games on a 53 win team, they are +10.1 with him on court, a +10.0 on/off. +3.67 RAPM, good for 2nd in the league.

Okay but that is an argument disconnected from what they are actually doing. 2022 was the worst scoring season of Steph’s prime. He did not shoulder a higher passing load. He did not take better care of the ball. His defence was potentially a step up that year, fine, but that is not the source of the value spike you see in 2022 compared to what we see in 2021 and 2023 — incidentally, two years where Lebron has a better on-court rating and on-off rating on teams with similar results. Now, contrast that with Lebron, who had his best scoring season as a Laker, and played his highest minutes per game since 2017, but all the same had an extreme value nadir compared to every other Lakers season. Again, seasonal shifts in defence are only worth so much. Those three season stretches should be a textbook example of how your surrounding roster affects your real impact, but instead you want to go with this rudimentary “Lebron was -2 and +2 and therefore had an awful season and Curry was +10 and +10 and therefore had his best post-Durant season.”