For the next 5 years: most important player to keep – Cavaliers edition

[The-Power]

The scenario is that you can only choose one of the listed players and guarantee that he stays with the team for the next 5 years. Think of it as an expansion draft in which you get to protect only one player who'll sign a new 5-year deal for max money.

Who should the Cavaliers choose keep?

[ronnymac2]

Not sure how this isn't Mobley by a mile.

[rk2023]

Mobley. Still two years remain on his rookie deal

[The-Power]

Mobley. Still two years remain on his rookie deal

As the OP clearly states, the current contract does not matter in this scenario.

[RCM88x]

Mobley. Still two years remain on his rookie deal

As the OP clearly states, the current contract does not matter in this scenario.

It's pretty hard to completely divorce players from their contracts IMO. That is precisely what defines how you keep a player.

[yoyoboy]

Earlier in the season I would have said Garland. But now it’s clearly Mobley for me. I have more confidence in him turning into a playmaking/inside scoring hub after the last few months, and his defensive IQ/instincts are nearly perfect already. He just needs to add more size so guys can’t knock him out of position on both ends.

In his first 45 games this year, Mobley averaged:

14.6 ppg
8.9 rpg
2.7 apg
1.3 bpg
0.7 spg
2.0 topg
59.5% TS

In his last 33 games, he averaged:

18.6 ppg
9.3 rpg
3.2 apg
1.8 bpg
0.8 spg
1.6 topg
58.8% TS

He’s made massive strides on offense as the season has progressed. Next steps will be showing up his outside shot and adding more mass. So for me the order of who to keep is:

1. Mobley
2. Garland
3. Mitchell
4. Allen

[Texas Chuck]

I know everyone defaults to the young guy, but its probably still Spida.

Especially since knowing an expansion draft is coming so you would trade Mobley and Garland (and Allen) ahead of the draft getting futures and veterans unappealing to an expansion team back. You have seen this in the NHL with their recent expansion where teams get ahead of losing good young players for nothing by trading them.

You would do the same here.

[yoyoboy]

I know everyone defaults to the young guy, but its probably still Spida.

Especially since knowing an expansion draft is coming so you would trade Mobley and Garland (and Allen) ahead of the draft getting futures and veterans unappealing to an expansion team back. You have seen this in the NHL with their recent expansion where teams get ahead of losing good young players for nothing by trading them.

You would do the same here.

But Mobley isn’t just some young unknown who has yet to prove anything. I honestly think he’s already been arguably our most impactful player the last couple months of the season. And he has significantly more growth in him than Mitchell does.

I think a lot of non-Cavs fans overrate Mitchell’s share of contribution to this team’s success just because of the scoring burden he’s taken on. And underrate the other three core guys. This team was already very good before injuries cratered the team last year. Spida is a phenomenal scorer but he’s a 6’1 guard who’s not giving you much playmaking or defense and that limits his value at the end of the day. What he gives us is more easily replaceable than what Mobley offers us even at this stage in his career.

[Lou Fan]

I know everyone defaults to the young guy, but its probably still Spida.

Especially since knowing an expansion draft is coming so you would trade Mobley and Garland (and Allen) ahead of the draft getting futures and veterans unappealing to an expansion team back. You have seen this in the NHL with their recent expansion where teams get ahead of losing good young players for nothing by trading them.

You would do the same here.

?

[Colbinii]

I know everyone defaults to the young guy, but its probably still Spida.

Especially since knowing an expansion draft is coming so you would trade Mobley and Garland (and Allen) ahead of the draft getting futures and veterans unappealing to an expansion team back. You have seen this in the NHL with their recent expansion where teams get ahead of losing good young players for nothing by trading them.

You would do the same here.

?

OP

Think of it as an expansion draft in which you get to protect only one player who'll sign a new 5-year deal for max money.

[Lou Fan]

I know everyone defaults to the young guy, but its probably still Spida.

Especially since knowing an expansion draft is coming so you would trade Mobley and Garland (and Allen) ahead of the draft getting futures and veterans unappealing to an expansion team back. You have seen this in the NHL with their recent expansion where teams get ahead of losing good young players for nothing by trading them.

You would do the same here.

?

OP

Think of it as an expansion draft in which you get to protect only one player who'll sign a new 5-year deal for max money.

That's what I get for skimming lol

[The-Power]

Mobley. Still two years remain on his rookie deal

As the OP clearly states, the current contract does not matter in this scenario.

It's pretty hard to completely divorce players from their contracts IMO. That is precisely what defines how you keep a player.

Well, that's precisely why I set up a hypothetical scenario. If you're still thinking about current contracts, you're not answering the question in the OP but some other question.

Anyway, I'm surprised to see an almost unanimous vote for Mobley. Now, looking at the responses in this thread I'm not sure if those votes all came with the outlined scenario in mind but I thought it would be closer. Especially since I know some Cavs fans are (were?) very high on Garland, and Mitchell is still by far the most proven player among the options who also seems to have fit in well.

For Cavs fans in particular: am I correct to assume that (most of) you believe Mobley will be the Cavs' best player over the next five years (counting each year equally)?

[yoyoboy]

As the OP clearly states, the current contract does not matter in this scenario.

It's pretty hard to completely divorce players from their contracts IMO. That is precisely what defines how you keep a player.

Well, that's precisely why I set up a hypothetical scenario. If you're still thinking about current contracts, you're not answering the question in the OP but some other question.

Anyway, I'm surprised to see an almost unanimous vote for Mobley. Now, looking at the responses in this thread I'm not sure if those votes all came with the outlined scenario in mind but I thought it would be closer. Especially since I know some Cavs fans are (were?) very high on Garland, and Mitchell is still by far the most proven player among the options who also seems to have fit in well.

For Cavs fans in particular: am I correct to assume that (most of) you believe Mobley will be the Cavs' best player over the next five years (counting each year equally)?

Yeah I think he will be. Maybe as soon as next year, at least in the regular season.

I’ve never been as high on Mitchell as a lot of people are. Very good player and this is the best season of his career, but his inability (or maybe reluctance) to counter defensive strategies with more playmaking for others hurts his offensive value. It’s frustrating watching him take needlessly tough shots sometimes while missing the easy pass to the big. It really feels like he’ll only make the pass if he has absolutely no attempt there for himself, even if there’s a better one for a teammate. But he really is an unbelievable scorer, especially at his size, and his scoring is basically immune to any scheme or level of 1-on-1 defender imo because his change of direction ability and strength are so good, plus he’s an elite pull-up shooter. And that’s obviously so important come playoffs. It’s no surprise that the offense this season was about 2 points per 100 better with Garland on and Mitchell off than vice versa, and I predicted it would be shortly after we acquired Mitchell.

So I’m higher on Garland going forward than Mitchell. Not just because he’s younger with more room to improve, but because I think on the season he’s been just as valuable as Mitchell if not more so. He’s slightly better off the ball, he’s a way better playmaker, he’s at least as good of a shooter (though he doesn’t shoot nearly as many threes as he should), and like Mitchell he can get into the paint at will, but he’s not as good of a scorer once he gets there. I think DG will have trouble in these playoffs though to a degree Mitchell won’t. He still has big problems handling trapping and physicality and he’s going to see a lot. Just like Steph got significantly better against those things, I think Garland will have to get physically stronger and get used to seeing those kinds of looks in order to overcome them.

Defensively, I like Garland going forward more than Mitchell. Mitchell can look really good on the ball and his effort hasn’t been an issue this season. He can also plow through a screen to a degree Garland just can’t at his size and with his lesser lateral quickness. And when he wants to, he’ll pull down some impressive boards in traffic. But man, Donovan just doesn’t have good awareness for the most part. He’ll play too far off corner shooters, he allows a lot of cuts to the hoop, he takes bad routes trying to navigate screens, and his transition defense is terrible. He’s been good enough as an on-ball defender, surprisingly switchable onto wings, good playing the passing lanes, and disciplined following the defensive scheme and making rotations to the point where despite those issues, I’d say he’s been just a little below average defensively this year, which is much better than the near worst in the league level I expected.

Garland’s biggest issue is screens just destroy him at the point of attack. Luckily we have Mobley and Allen who with their mobility and length do excellent jobs of being able to threaten the ballhandler and still guard the roller. But outside of that he’s a pretty mistake-free defender. He’s good positioning himself on the weak side, he makes the right rotations, he rarely falls asleep, and 1-on-1 I actually think he’s done a very good job keeping his man in front of him this year. Even on switches, he’s really competing against bigger players. I think if he can become stronger so he’s better handling screens and contributing on the boards, he might be able to achieve better than neutral defensive value.

The reason I have Mobley ahead of both is because I think he’s already at DPOY level, and it’s unfortunate that opponent 3P shooting luck is working against him so much - despite him leading the NBA in 3P shot contests and the Cavs allowing the least 3PA in the league - and so negatively affecting his defensive on-off. Because I think people would take him more seriously in the conversation, being the engine behind the #1 defense in the NBA that’s able to get away with playing two 6’1 negative defenders in the backcourt. The amount of ground he’s able to cover and threaten is unbelievable. His instincts and IQ are virtually perfect already. He honestly always seems to make the right reads and decisions. His only weakness is his size, as sometimes stronger penetrators can bump him out the way at the hoop or bulky bigs can get too deep of position against him in the paint. And he could be a better rebounder with more mass as well. But yeah, at 21 it’s just so impressive to me to see how advanced his understanding of defense is. If he can win DPOY next year, he’ll be the youngest winner in the history of the award.

So when you combine a perennial DPOY threat with offense that’s been coming along the way it has, it’s clearly Mobley going forward imo. I don’t think he’ll be an offensive superstar, but I think he’s a very good natural playmaker and that’s only going to improve if he can gain more strength which will help warp defenses and set up those passing opportunities. I have doubts about him ever becoming a good 3P shooter because of his shot form, but I think he can become passable in time. I think it’s more likely he becomes a decent mid range shooter because he’s already not too bad from there, though he doesn’t take a lot. And then his finishing around the hoop has looked really good lately. He has good touch, some wiry strength, solid quickness off the ground, and persistence to get the bucket. Leading the NBA in dunks is partially thanks to DG, but it’s also because Mobley is a really good finisher. He’s already been at around 19 ppg - 59% TS for a few months now despite still being raw in so many aspects like shooting, ball handling, and his physical form. I think he’s flashed enough signs where I expect second option scoring on very good efficiency and 5+ apg in his prime. Add in that defense, and that’s probably good enough to be a top 10 player in the league for a while. I would say Mitchell is around ~20th best in the league territory, and I don’t think it’s likely he’ll climb much more than that. Garland has more potential to knock on that top 10 door, but I’d prefer to bet on Mobley because of his physical gifts.