2023 NBA Draft – Thurs, 8PM, June 22

[djFan71]

Another W for OUR Rockets

Awwwwww yeah! I think they got one more in ‘em!

[ConstableGeneva]

Another W for OUR Rockets

Awwwwww yeah! I think they got one more in ‘em!

Stupid tanking Mavs screwing up everything. They play the Spurs for their final game, ugh!!

[djFan71]

Another W for OUR Rockets

Awwwwww yeah! I think they got one more in ‘em!

Stupid tanking Mavs screwing up everything. They play the Spurs for their final game, ugh!!

Maybe Kyrie will sit and DAL will play better.

[Hal14]

He hasn't officially declared yet. But I think he will.

If he declares for the draft, if we get 33rd pick and if he slips that far, we got to think long and hard about taking him.

Kyle Filipowski.

Good size, good skill for a guy of that size, especially for a guy who's only a freshman.

Better shooter than the 3 pt % indicates.

A beast on the boards. Respectable steal % and blocks %. Had solid defensive rating and defensive BPM.

You watch him play, and you're gonna come away with some serious Lauri Markannen vibes - that's the comp everyone makes. I think if Flipowski's 3 pt % was higher and if his mobility/athleticism/fluidity was a little better, the comp would be even more obvious - but then he'd be a consensus lottery pick and we wouldn't have a chance at getting him.

I actually have Clowney, Murray and Filipowski ranked pretty closely to each other on my board. Feel like there's a decent chance that at least 1 of them falls to 33.

Watch on YouTube

[cl2117]

Another W for OUR Rockets

Awwwwww yeah! I think they got one more in ‘em!

Stupid tanking Mavs screwing up everything. They play the Spurs for their final game, ugh!!

What's the deal if they end up with the same exact record?

Spurs have the Wolves and then Mavs, so probably a loss and a win. Rockets get the Wizards for their final game so they could realistically finish with the same record.

I think it's a coin flip to determine who gets the extra lottery odds and then the order is flipped in the 2nd round? So if Spurs get slightly better lottery odds then the Rockets get the 33rd pick and vice versa. At least that's how I think it plays out.

Portland get the Clippers, but not sure what the Clips are aiming for in terms of playoff seeding so might not actually be a good thing. On paper though they should win that and lock us in for the 35th pick at a minimum.

[BostonCouchGM]

I want a backup for Timelord and Horford. Being in the NW I watched Mouhamed Gueye play a lot and he's who I'd be targeting with one of our 2nd round picks. He's very athletic, long and active. We just need someone to step in in case of injury and play 12-15 minutes a game. He's talented enough to do that.

Watch on YouTube

[zoyathedestroya]

What is going on?! I was promised BOTH the HOU and the POR picks!

Read on Twitter

[BK_2020]

Awwwwww yeah! I think they got one more in ‘em!

Stupid tanking Mavs screwing up everything. They play the Spurs for their final game, ugh!!

What's the deal if they end up with the same exact record?

Spurs have the Wolves and then Mavs, so probably a loss and a win. Rockets get the Wizards for their final game so they could realistically finish with the same record.

I think it's a coin flip to determine who gets the extra lottery odds and then the order is flipped in the 2nd round? So if Spurs get slightly better lottery odds then the Rockets get the 33rd pick and vice versa. At least that's how I think it plays out.

Portland get the Clippers, but not sure what the Clips are aiming for in terms of playoff seeding so might not actually be a good thing. On paper though they should win that and lock us in for the 35th pick at a minimum.

SAS have no incentive to lose unfortunately. The bottom 3 teams have the same odds.

[Homerclease]

I’m looking to package whatever second we get along with Pritchard to move up for Derek Lively

[BK_2020]

I’m looking to package whatever second we get along with Pritchard to move up for Derek Lively

I doubt anyone picking in the bottom of the 1st round wants Pritchard's $4 mil. He's negative value as it is, and the teams picking in 26th to 30th are Utah, Indiana, Charlotte and the Clippers, either lottery teams who have no use for a zero upside guy on the final year of his rookie contract or a team with 9 guards on the roster.

[cl2117]

Stupid tanking Mavs screwing up everything. They play the Spurs for their final game, ugh!!

What's the deal if they end up with the same exact record?

Spurs have the Wolves and then Mavs, so probably a loss and a win. Rockets get the Wizards for their final game so they could realistically finish with the same record.

I think it's a coin flip to determine who gets the extra lottery odds and then the order is flipped in the 2nd round? So if Spurs get slightly better lottery odds then the Rockets get the 33rd pick and vice versa. At least that's how I think it plays out.

Portland get the Clippers, but not sure what the Clips are aiming for in terms of playoff seeding so might not actually be a good thing. On paper though they should win that and lock us in for the 35th pick at a minimum.

SAS have no incentive to lose unfortunately. The bottom 3 teams have the same odds.

SAS might not have incentive to lose, but Minnesota have incentive to win for playoff seeding, so should win (on paper). Seems like it'll come down to whether HOU can beat the Wizards and keep pace with Spurs. Wizards have no incentive to win, so they should have a decent chance.

If they end up with the same record then it comes down to the coin-toss situation. Think I got it backwards in my first post, we'd want Houston to win the coin-toss and get the better lotto odds, SAS in turn would get the better 2nd round pick and we'd luck into the 33rd overall.

Gonna be some ugly basketball, not sure I can bring myself to watch any of it.

[cl2117]

I’m looking to package whatever second we get along with Pritchard to move up for Derek Lively

I doubt anyone picking in the bottom of the 1st round wants Pritchard's $4 mil. He's negative value as it is, and the teams picking in 26th to 30th are Utah, Indiana, Charlotte and the Clippers, either lottery teams who have no use for a zero upside guy on the final year of his rookie contract or a team with 9 guards on the roster.

Zero chance Pritchard is viewed as negative value around the league.

[BK_2020]

I’m looking to package whatever second we get along with Pritchard to move up for Derek Lively

I doubt anyone picking in the bottom of the 1st round wants Pritchard's $4 mil. He's negative value as it is, and the teams picking in 26th to 30th are Utah, Indiana, Charlotte and the Clippers, either lottery teams who have no use for a zero upside guy on the final year of his rookie contract or a team with 9 guards on the roster.

Zero chance Pritchard is viewed as negative value around the league.

How many players of his calibre got $4 mil. in free agency? You can sign a Pritchard to a nonguaranteed contract for the minimum.

[cl2117]

I doubt anyone picking in the bottom of the 1st round wants Pritchard's $4 mil. He's negative value as it is, and the teams picking in 26th to 30th are Utah, Indiana, Charlotte and the Clippers, either lottery teams who have no use for a zero upside guy on the final year of his rookie contract or a team with 9 guards on the roster.

Zero chance Pritchard is viewed as negative value around the league.

How many players of his calibre got $4 mil. in free agency? You can sign a Pritchard to a nonguaranteed contract for the minimum.

Most veteran guard options make more than $4m. Guys making under that are either still on rookie deals or scrubs. Check the lists.

2022 guard contract signings:
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/2022/guard/

Current guard contracts:
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/contracts/sort-value/guard/limit-1630/

The reason Pritchard is going to be on the block is widely accepted because he deserves a chance at a bigger role, not because he's a scrub you can get for a nonguaranteed minimum deal and we want off his $4m.

[cl2117]

He hasn't officially declared yet. But I think he will.

If he declares for the draft, if we get 33rd pick and if he slips that far, we got to think long and hard about taking him.

Kyle Filipowski.

Good size, good skill for a guy of that size, especially for a guy who's only a freshman.

Better shooter than the 3 pt % indicates.

A beast on the boards. Respectable steal % and blocks %. Had solid defensive rating and defensive BPM.

You watch him play, and you're gonna come away with some serious Lauri Markannen vibes - that's the comp everyone makes. I think if Flipowski's 3 pt % was higher and if his mobility/athleticism/fluidity was a little better, the comp would be even more obvious - but then he'd be a consensus lottery pick and we wouldn't have a chance at getting him.

I actually have Clowney, Murray and Filipowski ranked pretty closely to each other on my board. Feel like there's a decent chance that at least 1 of them falls to 33.

Watch on YouTube

Love your insights.

What's your go-to website(s) for digging into the draft class?

Draftexpress used to be a one-stop shop I feel like, but ever since they got bought out by ESPN I don't feel like there's a comparable alternative, but I haven't been paying attention as much in recent years so maybe I'm just out of the loop.

[Hal14]

I’m looking to package whatever second we get along with Pritchard to move up for Derek Lively

Lively would be a nice pickup. Might take a better package than that to get him, though.

Lively is probably gonna be an absolute freak in the NBA. Still only 18 and posted an insanely high blocks rate as a freshman. High motor, freak of a shot blocker / rim runner. He'll be a mix of jalen duren and walker kessler. A little bit of time lord and Nic Claxton mixed in.

Top 20 guy in this class, maybe top 15.

[BK_2020]

Zero chance Pritchard is viewed as negative value around the league.

How many players of his calibre got $4 mil. in free agency? You can sign a Pritchard to a nonguaranteed contract for the minimum.

Most veteran guard options make more than $4m. Guys making under that are either still on rookie deals or scrubs. Check the lists.

2022 guard contract signings:
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/2022/guard/

Current guard contracts:
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/contracts/sort-value/guard/limit-1630/

The reason Pritchard is going to be on the block is widely accepted because he deserves a chance at a bigger role, not because he's a scrub you can get for a nonguaranteed minimum deal and we want off his $4m.

Literally look at the list you linked. Worst veteran FA guards who got more than $4 mil. are guys like Jevon Carter and Rubio. Both are tough defenders and Rubio has size and superb passing ability. Pritchard at the end of the day is a guy who knocks down open shots. He hustles and does the right things but he's too limited to bring value. He had 20 DNP-CDs. That's a guy who's headed to China, not Tax Payer MLE.
Yes, a lot of "Veteran guards" got more than $4 mil. But even if Payton Pritchard and James Harden belong in that same set, they also belong to very different sets. Harden and Beal got more than $4 mil. not because they are "Veteran guards." They got it because they are good. Payton Pritchard doesn't meet that other criteria.

[Hal14]

He hasn't officially declared yet. But I think he will.

If he declares for the draft, if we get 33rd pick and if he slips that far, we got to think long and hard about taking him.

Kyle Filipowski.

Good size, good skill for a guy of that size, especially for a guy who's only a freshman.

Better shooter than the 3 pt % indicates.

A beast on the boards. Respectable steal % and blocks %. Had solid defensive rating and defensive BPM.

You watch him play, and you're gonna come away with some serious Lauri Markannen vibes - that's the comp everyone makes. I think if Flipowski's 3 pt % was higher and if his mobility/athleticism/fluidity was a little better, the comp would be even more obvious - but then he'd be a consensus lottery pick and we wouldn't have a chance at getting him.

I actually have Clowney, Murray and Filipowski ranked pretty closely to each other on my board. Feel like there's a decent chance that at least 1 of them falls to 33.

Watch on YouTube

Love your insights.

What's your go-to website(s) for digging into the draft class?

Draftexpress used to be a one-stop shop I feel like, but ever since they got bought out by ESPN I don't feel like there's a comparable alternative, but I haven't been paying attention as much in recent years so maybe I'm just out of the loop.

I follow a lot of the draft nerds and draft gurus on Twitter. Some good resources are Box and One and No Ceilings, who each have a website, youtube vids and twitter accounts..

[cl2117]

How many players of his calibre got $4 mil. in free agency? You can sign a Pritchard to a nonguaranteed contract for the minimum.

Most veteran guard options make more than $4m. Guys making under that are either still on rookie deals or scrubs. Check the lists.

2022 guard contract signings:
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/2022/guard/

Current guard contracts:
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/contracts/sort-value/guard/limit-1630/

The reason Pritchard is going to be on the block is widely accepted because he deserves a chance at a bigger role, not because he's a scrub you can get for a nonguaranteed minimum deal and we want off his $4m.

Literally look at the list you linked. Worst veteran FA guards who got more than $4 mil. are guys like Jevon Carter and Rubio. Both are tough defenders and Rubio has size and superb passing ability. Pritchard at the end of the day is a guy who knocks down open shots. He hustles and does the right things but he's too limited to bring value. He had 20 DNP-CDs. That's a guy who's headed to China, not Tax Payer MLE.

Find me better guards making less money who aren't on rookie deals. It is incredibly slim pickings.

Even after a rough year, Pritchard is still a 40% career shooter from 3 in league where that's a super premium and is only 25. He still has upside potential, albeit marginal. He is not negative value. Ask the tradeboard if you still think that and I'm sure opposing fanbases would be happy to correct you.

[djFan71]

Stupid tanking Mavs screwing up everything. They play the Spurs for their final game, ugh!!

What's the deal if they end up with the same exact record?

Spurs have the Wolves and then Mavs, so probably a loss and a win. Rockets get the Wizards for their final game so they could realistically finish with the same record.

I think it's a coin flip to determine who gets the extra lottery odds and then the order is flipped in the 2nd round? So if Spurs get slightly better lottery odds then the Rockets get the 33rd pick and vice versa. At least that's how I think it plays out.

Portland get the Clippers, but not sure what the Clips are aiming for in terms of playoff seeding so might not actually be a good thing. On paper though they should win that and lock us in for the 35th pick at a minimum.

SAS have no incentive to lose unfortunately. The bottom 3 teams have the same odds.

I know you know it, but, even though they have the same odds, being a slot higher to start means you end higher when someone else jumps. It's always good to lose when you're tanking.