Markelle Fultz

[VFX]

I still disagree, adding a heavy usage player to Fultz, Paolo, and Wagner as those 3 are at their best with the ball in their hands is just not going to work. Now, if it is replacing Fultz with best years Harden, that makes sense. If not you have to add movement shooters with those 3. Players that are constantly on the move not necessarily looking for a shot but also acting as a decoy to get someone else an easy shot. Adding a playmaking guard like Harden will just offer diminishing results with Wagner likely taking the biggest hit.

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The example wasn’t to say what should happen.

The example is used to show that the drawbacks of Fultz cannot be mitigated by a singular player at shooting guard, which is correct.

Franz and Paolo are not looking for shots on the perimeter as their first options. That’s fine. That just means that BOTH of the guards have to be willing and ABLE to shoot the basketball and make plays for them off the ball.

Fultz does neither of those things. That was the point of the example. You either get the highest usage guy imaginable that can do both of those things, or you simply replace him so both of your guards can highlight the Forwards.

I don’t understand this idea that the roster has to capitulate to the deficiencies of a premier position on the court simply because people lack imagination in finding a replacement that doesn’t have those deficiencies.

Problem is that with Fultz you need a floor spacer next to him AND someone who can run pick and roll. Both Franz and Paolo are not good enough to run p&r if we want to make playoffs. That would leave the sg slot to be de facto point guard with Fultz making his impression of smaller Demar Derozan. Harden actually could fullfil both of these roles, same as Curry or Lillard, but if you have such a guard why in the gods name would you start Fultz next to them ?
Thats the problem of Fultz, he needs a superstar guard next to him to mask his weaknesses but then that superstar makes him obsolete. Things could be a little different if we had someone like Durant or PG or Lebron...... past Westbrook budies wink wink (just like Harden, its so funny)

Exactly.

I was using that example as a point of showing how ridiculous the notion is that finding the perfect shooting guard (an MVP candidate) isn’t a viable solution. Just acquire someone with upside that already does all of these things.

Fwiw I said the same thing about AG and Vucevic for years.

[Bensational]

The Celtics are the most comparable team to our current make up. Let's look at a comp between players:

Horford -- WCJ
Tatum -- Paolo
Brown -- Franz
White -- Harris
Smart -- Fultz

Where is the biggest gulf in performances there?

Smart and Fultz are basically a wash, with the only separating factor being Smart's 3pt volume.

White outperforms Harris overall as he has more tools in his belt. Harris had the better shooting season, but White got to the line and added 4apg.

Brown added 8ppg more than Franz on 6 more shots, and he grabbed a few more rebounds. Otherwise they were similar.

Tatum scored 30ppg with a TS of 61%, Banchero averaged 20ppg with a TS of 53%. Tatum had more boards, assists and steals than Paolo.

Wendell was nicely comparable to Horford. He scored more, got to the line more, grabbed more rebounds. Horford was the better 3pt shooter.

[VFX]

The Celtics are the most comparable team to our current make up. Let's look at a comp between players:

Horford -- WCJ
Tatum -- Paolo
Brown -- Franz
White -- Harris
Smart -- Fultz

Where is the biggest gulf in performances there?

Smart and Fultz are basically a wash, with the only separating factor being Smart's 3pt volume.

White outperforms Harris overall as he has more tools in his belt. Harris had the better shooting season, but White got to the line and added 4apg.

Brown added 8ppg more than Franz on 6 more shots, and he grabbed a few more rebounds. Otherwise they were similar.

Tatum scored 30ppg with a TS of 61%, Banchero averaged 20ppg with a TS of 53%. Tatum had more boards, assists and steals than Paolo.

Wendell was nicely comparable to Horford. He scored more, got to the line more, grabbed more rebounds. Horford was the better 3pt shooter.

What stands out the most is how differently Paolo and Tatum play. Tatum takes 9 3pa a game with the same 2pa as Paolo. He’s just a more versatile scorer and able to create more off the dribble. Playing outside-in changes things.

The other thing that jumps off the page is that White gets 4x the assists of Harris and is just a more versatile scorer.

[Bensational]

The Celtics are the most comparable team to our current make up. Let's look at a comp between players:

Horford -- WCJ
Tatum -- Paolo
Brown -- Franz
White -- Harris
Smart -- Fultz

Where is the biggest gulf in performances there?

Smart and Fultz are basically a wash, with the only separating factor being Smart's 3pt volume.

White outperforms Harris overall as he has more tools in his belt. Harris had the better shooting season, but White got to the line and added 4apg.

Brown added 8ppg more than Franz on 6 more shots, and he grabbed a few more rebounds. Otherwise they were similar.

Tatum scored 30ppg with a TS of 61%, Banchero averaged 20ppg with a TS of 53%. Tatum had more boards, assists and steals than Paolo.

Wendell was nicely comparable to Horford. He scored more, got to the line more, grabbed more rebounds. Horford was the better 3pt shooter.

What stands out the most is how differently Paolo and Tatum play. Tatum takes 9 3pa a game with the same 2pa as Paolo. He’s just a more versatile scorer and able to create more off the dribble. Playing outside-in changes things.

The other thing that jumps off the page is that White gets 4x the assists of Harris and is just a more versatile scorer.

Paolo plays outside-in, he initiates from the perimeter almost exclusively. He’s not a post up inside-out guy and he’s not a very frequent cutter or off ball mover that this stage in his career. To become a comparably effective 3 level scorer as Tatum, Paolo’s outside shooting needs to make a big jump. I believe it will, but maybe others don’t?

Edit - 4apg from White isn’t superstar James Harden either, and it doesn’t seem to be hurting Boston any.

[VFX]

The Celtics are the most comparable team to our current make up. Let's look at a comp between players:

Horford -- WCJ
Tatum -- Paolo
Brown -- Franz
White -- Harris
Smart -- Fultz

Where is the biggest gulf in performances there?

Smart and Fultz are basically a wash, with the only separating factor being Smart's 3pt volume.

White outperforms Harris overall as he has more tools in his belt. Harris had the better shooting season, but White got to the line and added 4apg.

Brown added 8ppg more than Franz on 6 more shots, and he grabbed a few more rebounds. Otherwise they were similar.

Tatum scored 30ppg with a TS of 61%, Banchero averaged 20ppg with a TS of 53%. Tatum had more boards, assists and steals than Paolo.

Wendell was nicely comparable to Horford. He scored more, got to the line more, grabbed more rebounds. Horford was the better 3pt shooter.

What stands out the most is how differently Paolo and Tatum play. Tatum takes 9 3pa a game with the same 2pa as Paolo. He’s just a more versatile scorer and able to create more off the dribble. Playing outside-in changes things.

The other thing that jumps off the page is that White gets 4x the assists of Harris and is just a more versatile scorer.

Paolo plays outside-in, he initiates from the perimeter almost exclusively. He’s not a post up inside-out guy and he’s not a very frequent cutter or off ball mover that this stage in his career. To become a comparably effective 3 level scorer as Tatum, Paolo’s outside shooting needs to make a big jump. I believe it will, but maybe others don’t?

Edit - 4apg from White isn’t superstar James Harden either, and it doesn’t seem to be hurting Boston any.

For Paolo it’s more about how he plays on the perimeter. He initiates from the perimeter but isn’t running off of screens on the arch and shooting off the dribble in front of defenders. 9 attempts compared to 4 is a pretty big jump.

6’8 210lbs is also different than 6’10 255lbs. Paolo should be taking advantage of how big he is in the paint. Orlando should be running the pick and roll with someone that can shoot the ball. He’s a mismatch nightmare that they don’t take advantage of. They just don’t do it.

[Knightro]

“The Magic can win with Fultz, just look at the Celtics with Smart” is not as good of a take as some people seem to think it is.

If the solution is to have multiple All-NBA teammates who can mitigate another starters shortcomings and limitations, that’s ultimately not much of a solution, is it?

[eyriq]

You know, if you look at 24 and under point guards we aren't doing so bad with Fultz. You've got your 1st team All-NBA PG's in Doncic and Shai, your All-Stars in Haliburton, Morant, and Trae, and your studs in Garland, LaMelo, and Cade. After those eight you have Kevin Porter Jr., Fultz, and Quickley. I'm kind of ok with it.

[Knightro]

You know, if you look at 24 and under point guards we aren't doing so bad with Fultz. You've got your 1st team All-NBA PG's in Doncic and Shai, your All-Stars in Haliburton, Morant, and Trae, and your studs in Garland, LaMelo, and Cade. After those eight you have Kevin Porter Jr., Fultz, and Quickley. I'm kind of ok with it.

Oh eyriq...

Take a look at what you just said again

Of point guards ONLY AGED 24 AND UNDER, Fultz ranks 9th or 10th at best.

So we're not even factoring in the... 14? 15? point guards over the age of 24 who are better than him too?

[Bensational]

“The Magic can win with Fultz, just look at the Celtics with Smart” is not as good of a take as some people seem to think it is.

If the solution is to have multiple All-NBA teammates who can mitigate another starters shortcomings and limitations, that’s ultimately not much of a solution, is it?

Wow, I didn’t realise you were so low on Paolo and Franz’s potential. I mean, your plan to add a high volume 3pt shooting PG is certainly to mitigate that our lead scorers currently aren’t that.

Why don’t you try answering the question I’ve asked you which you’ve ghosted both times I’ve asked it previously? How do you plan to control the variance of the 3pt shot and reality most players miss 2/3 shots? How do you game plan to make sure they hit those shots when you need them most without adding Steph Curry? FVV? The guy with a worse TS% than Fultz? Who’s going to mitigate FVV’s terrible %’s from 2?

[Bensational]

What stands out the most is how differently Paolo and Tatum play. Tatum takes 9 3pa a game with the same 2pa as Paolo. He’s just a more versatile scorer and able to create more off the dribble. Playing outside-in changes things.

The other thing that jumps off the page is that White gets 4x the assists of Harris and is just a more versatile scorer.

Paolo plays outside-in, he initiates from the perimeter almost exclusively. He’s not a post up inside-out guy and he’s not a very frequent cutter or off ball mover that this stage in his career. To become a comparably effective 3 level scorer as Tatum, Paolo’s outside shooting needs to make a big jump. I believe it will, but maybe others don’t?

Edit - 4apg from White isn’t superstar James Harden either, and it doesn’t seem to be hurting Boston any.

For Paolo it’s more about how he plays on the perimeter. He initiates from the perimeter but isn’t running off of screens on the arch and shooting off the dribble in front of defenders. 9 attempts compared to 4 is a pretty big jump.

6’8 210lbs is also different than 6’10 255lbs. Paolo should be taking advantage of how big he is in the paint. Orlando should be running the pick and roll with someone that can shoot the ball. He’s a mismatch nightmare that they don’t take advantage of. They just don’t do it.

9 attempts compared to 4 is a big jump. Tatum shot less than 4 attempts from 3 in both his rookie and sophomore seasons, then jumped to 7 in his 3rd season. So did Julius Randle, who’s a comp for Paolo’s physical size. Randle didn’t shoot a three a game for his first 4 seasons with the Lakers. On his first season with the Knicks he shot under 4 and now in his 4th season he’s shooting 8.

Paolo pretty clearly sees himself as a perimeter initiator, and that’s where his value lies. It’s unique to have someone of his build be able to do that and that’s how he draws so many fouls. His improvement will come from better shot selection and knowing when to make a pass out of the paint instead of forcing shots up when drawing contact isn’t likely, and improving his efficiency from 3.

[eyriq]

You know, if you look at 24 and under point guards we aren't doing so bad with Fultz. You've got your 1st team All-NBA PG's in Doncic and Shai, your All-Stars in Haliburton, Morant, and Trae, and your studs in Garland, LaMelo, and Cade. After those eight you have Kevin Porter Jr., Fultz, and Quickley. I'm kind of ok with it.

Oh eyriq...

Take a look at what you just said again

Of point guards ONLY AGED 24 AND UNDER, Fultz ranks 9th or 10th at best.

So we're not even factoring in the... 14? 15? point guards over the age of 24 who are better than him too?

I'm talking myself into him no matter what you say

Looking at over the age of 24 PG's I'd have
Lillard, Curry, Harden, Irving, Brunson, Fox, Holiday, VanVleet, CP, and Murray all clearly ahead of him. So 10 from the over 24 crew and 8 from the young guns crew.

Russell, Brogdon, and Dinwiddie are all interesting, and Smart and Caruso are as well, which is the mix I'd include Fultz in.

I mean, I can talk myself into this. I'd ditch him in a hot second for Scoot though.

[eyriq]

You know, if you look at 24 and under point guards we aren't doing so bad with Fultz. You've got your 1st team All-NBA PG's in Doncic and Shai, your All-Stars in Haliburton, Morant, and Trae, and your studs in Garland, LaMelo, and Cade. After those eight you have Kevin Porter Jr., Fultz, and Quickley. I'm kind of ok with it.

Oh eyriq...

Take a look at what you just said again

Of point guards ONLY AGED 24 AND UNDER, Fultz ranks 9th or 10th at best.

So we're not even factoring in the... 14? 15? point guards over the age of 24 who are better than him too?

I'm talking myself into him no matter what you say

Looking at over the age of 24 PG's I'd have
Lillard, Curry, Harden, Irving, Brunson, Fox, Holiday, VanVleet, CP, and Murray all clearly ahead of him. So 10 from the over 24 crew and 8 from the young guns crew.

Russell, Brogdon, and Dinwiddie are all interesting, and Smart and Caruso are as well, which is the mix I'd include Fultz in.

I mean, I can talk myself into this. I'd ditch him in a hot second for Scoot though.

Actually, I've talked myself into Cason Wallace but my brain hurts trying to think about what to do with the Fultz, Suggs, Cole logjam.

[VFX]

Paolo plays outside-in, he initiates from the perimeter almost exclusively. He’s not a post up inside-out guy and he’s not a very frequent cutter or off ball mover that this stage in his career. To become a comparably effective 3 level scorer as Tatum, Paolo’s outside shooting needs to make a big jump. I believe it will, but maybe others don’t?

Edit - 4apg from White isn’t superstar James Harden either, and it doesn’t seem to be hurting Boston any.

For Paolo it’s more about how he plays on the perimeter. He initiates from the perimeter but isn’t running off of screens on the arch and shooting off the dribble in front of defenders. 9 attempts compared to 4 is a pretty big jump.

6’8 210lbs is also different than 6’10 255lbs. Paolo should be taking advantage of how big he is in the paint. Orlando should be running the pick and roll with someone that can shoot the ball. He’s a mismatch nightmare that they don’t take advantage of. They just don’t do it.

9 attempts compared to 4 is a big jump. Tatum shot less than 4 attempts from 3 in both his rookie and sophomore seasons, then jumped to 7 in his 3rd season. So did Julius Randle, who’s a comp for Paolo’s physical size. Randle didn’t shoot a three a game for his first 4 seasons with the Lakers. On his first season with the Knicks he shot under 4 and now in his 4th season he’s shooting 8.

Paolo pretty clearly sees himself as a perimeter initiator, and that’s where his value lies. It’s unique to have someone of his build be able to do that and that’s how he draws so many fouls. His improvement will come from better shot selection and knowing when to make a pass out of the paint instead of forcing shots up when drawing contact isn’t likely, and improving his efficiency from 3.

Right.

But the point of this thread isn’t about how Paolo will improve his shot over time, which is likely. It’s about who’s works the best with him on the floor.

Even if he becomes a significantly better shooter you would rather have someone that does open up more options rather than less. Right?

I would still rather have a lead guard running an efficient half court offense with Paolo and Franz. And no, it’s not ideal to have all 3 of your initiators on offense to be “working on” improving their attempts from 3.

What people are suggesting is that Orlando drafts some volume SG to solve all of those problems. I’m saying you don’t need to alleviate that problem if you just acquire someone else that doesn’t end up also costing $25-35m in a years time.

[MasterGMer]

Regardless of the posters keeping criticizing Markelle's lack of 3 point shooting, I actually can see a great deal of future in him for Magic's offense.

Markelle's 3 point percentage is 31% this year, which is the highest it has ever been. The problem with his shooting is volume of 3 pt he shot. He'd like to avoid shooting 3s instead for a mid range

Again, I also want to point out that Markelle is easily the most efficient player on the team. He shot 51.4% in his FG%

If the biggest argument against Markelle being our future PG is his 3s, Scoot Henderson and Amen Thompson both shot less than 30% in their career. I am especially against drafting Amen Thompson. Scoot? Maybe, because his explosiveness and skill sets.

But there is a reason why Markelle was the NO.1 pick. Because of his skill sets and his ability to get to the paint or mid ranges and score.

Markelle's 3 is definitely improving. However, the argument that his game along Franz and Paolo doesn't coexists well is just beyond me.
First of all, I'd like to rely on my eye test. When Markelle is on the floor, the offense is like a complementary piece along side Franz or Paolo when Fultz can use his mid ranges or getting to the hoop to score.

Second, Markelle is not a finished product. His shot is improving and his 3 point is definitely improving.

Lastly, Markelle is the reason why he was drafted NO.1 pick because of his skill sets and potential.

However, if I am going to draft, I am going after Brandon Miller. We need a high volume SG. And we need to find the answer at 2

[zaymon]

Regardless of the posters keeping criticizing Markelle's lack of 3 point shooting, I actually can see a great deal of future in him for Magic's offense.

Markelle's 3 point percentage is 31% this year, which is the highest it has ever been. The problem with his shooting is volume of 3 pt he shot. He'd like to avoid shooting 3s instead for a mid range

Again, I also want to point out that Markelle is easily the most efficient player on the team. He shot 51.4% in his FG%

If the biggest argument against Markelle being our future PG is his 3s, Scoot Henderson and Amen Thompson both shot less than 30% in their career. I am especially against drafting Amen Thompson. Scoot? Maybe, because his explosiveness and skill sets.

But there is a reason why Markelle was the NO.1 pick. Because of his skill sets and his ability to get to the paint or mid ranges and score.

Markelle's 3 is definitely improving. However, the argument that his game along Franz and Paolo doesn't coexists well is just beyond me.
First of all, I'd like to rely on my eye test. When Markelle is on the floor, the offense is like a complementary piece along side Franz or Paolo when Fultz can use his mid ranges or getting to the hoop to score.

Second, Markelle is not a finished product. His shot is improving and his 3 point is definitely improving.

Lastly, Markelle is the reason why he was drafted NO.1 pick because of his skill sets and potential.

However, if I am going to draft, I am going after Brandon Miller. We need a high volume SG. And we need to find the answer at 2

1. If we treat Fultz as a human and not alien who is immune to stat analysis, his indicators are bad. Low volume, low efficiency, good not great ft%.

2. I would like to point out Fultz is the second least efficient starter only in front of Banchero. I am looking at true shootinh which includs free throws ( or lack of in case of Fultz) and 3 point shooting.

3. I would stay away from Thompson and Henderson.

4. Fultz is indeed improving, but his number 1 potential was literally gone when he was traded for scraps. Now he is nothing more than bad starter.

5. Your eye test is deceiving you. Fultz on/off numbers suggest he is detrimental to team success. He is far from complimentary. He is average at best at running sets ( average for a player, bad for a point guard). He is relying on iso scoring becouse his timing on passes is off and he is not guarded very closely. Teams give him those midrange shots but take everything else.

6. 76ers made very bad decision drafting Fultz #1. His skill set is not very good in modern nba. Even without this whole other weird stuff his skill set is overrated and not worth much, especially not #1 pick potential. Compare him to PB5.

7. I agree about Miller, tall shooters are always handy.

8. This fetish about sg who will solve all our problems is disgusting to me. Lets put all the blame on one slot and whitewash the other. Most problems our guars rotation have is created by Fultz and his inability to shoot or run offense. The ball is thrown in bad spots and shot distribution make no sense. Our best shooters rarely shoot, no one outside Anthony and Gary Harris can run decent pick and roll ( yes GH is above 80 percentile running p&r on very low volume).
Our offense was some crazy hybrid of trying to win and trying to develop players. We gave the ball to young inefficient players and used better players as decoys. I can understand it from big picture view, but making assumptions about certain players is just very risky.

[pepe1991]

Every time i watch Celtics play, whenever Brogdon is good, they are near unbeatable.
They are 13-5 in games when he scores 20 or more.
They are 9-3 when he has 6 or more assists

That's what great combo guard/point guard does for you. Even if he is banged up and not what he used to be.

Now look Magic games whenever Fultz is hot:
Magic are 2-9 in games when Fultz scores 20 or more
Magic are 12-16 in games where he has 6+ assists.

Magic are 8-4 in games where he shoots less than 8 shots.


Whole Tatum -Banchero based on stats comparison is silly. Celtics had whooping 55-27 record when he was a rookie. He also was one of best 3 point shooters in entire nba based on percentages. (43,4 % on 3 attemps a game).

[Bergmaniac]

Again, I also want to point out that Markelle is easily the most efficient player on the team. He shot 51.4% in his FG%

Why do you keep saying this? he is 12th in TS%. Even if you only use FG%, which you shouldn't, because it's a terrible measure of efficiency, he's behind several players.

As for the Smart comparison, if Fultz was a DPOY contender level of defender, I'd have been more than fine with him starting long term. But he is not and will not ever be that level of defender.

[Knightro]

But there is a reason why Markelle was the NO.1 pick. Because of his skill sets and his ability to get to the paint or mid ranges and score.

Oh come on now.

Markelle went No.1. overall because in college he made over 41% of his threes on good volume (.287 3PT rate) and had good FT volume (.383 FT rate).

Those two things were in addition to his ability to make midrange jumpers and score on drives to the rim.

But now? He doesn't take or make threes basically at all (.125 3PT rate this year, .134 career) and his ability to get to the line is far worse than it was in college (.212 this year, .206 career)

He's a completely different player than he was in college. Two of the main things that made him the top pick no longer exist.

[Bergmaniac]

He was drafted largely because he was an excellent pick and roll player and projected to be elite at it in the NBA eventually. This obvously didn't happen and he is currently one of the worst starting PGs at this. In fact, we have 3 players who have run and more pick and rolls than him this season (Franz, Paolo and Cole).

[Skybox]

He was drafted largely because he was an excellent pick and roll player and projected to be elite at it in the NBA eventually. This obvously didn't happen and he is currently one of the worst starting PGs at this. In fact, we have 3 players who have run and more pick and rolls than him this season (Franz, Paolo and Cole).

THIS /\ ...is even bigger than the gigantic chasm where 3pt shooting should be for a really good PG in today's NBA. The lack of 3pt shooting is the most obvious thing to dwell on, but that's just the low-hanging fruit. Then, coming up in 3rd place for fatal flaws, is the lack of drawing FTs...for a guy who doesn't spread the floor, whose near-elite skill is his ability to move through crowds and get to his spots and who is big, strong, and physical going to the hoop - that's incomprehensible. So tired of this "debate"...he gets 25 and people get excited, but it's just more of the same - and generally in a loss. He seems like a great guy and a beloved teammate, but he's basically not a PG between his ears. He's really good at a few things but those are not really the things we need and, at $17m, just doesn't make sense...not even off the bench, IMO.

It's a shame but it's reality. We could get one of those "invisible" PGs like Tyus Jones and, we'd win more and everybody would talk about Paolo and Franz taking a leap in their games...because the PG would be facilitating that...even better, we score a star PG like Scoot or FVV, who makes the others look great every night AND just takes over games himself when needed. Fultz is kind of a talent island - I just don't think he improves the team around him, not out of selfishness...but when he does what he's good at, it's all him and it's a very limited thing if the opposition decides to lock him down - they will do it.

The bigger point to me is...this isn't the time for patience. If we can trade him while he's under contract, we should. If we re-sign him for more than $10m (more likely $20m) I'm SMH. Proposing a knock-down shooter next to him at SG is progress but compensating for him that way is very limiting...the only way I "compensate" is if I have a nasty 3-level scorer at PG or SG (who may not be a good individual defender), and put a versatile lockdown type like Suggs next to him - even then, I'm counting on the fact that Suggs will average 15, but is a threat to go off for 25 if you ignore him...while the guy next to him is a threat to go off for 25 every single night.