The Consiglieri wrote:FAH1223 wrote:
I agree 1000% w/the trashing of us. I do think this is something some of you DC guys who get hopeful every offseason and start doing a lot of deck chairs/Titanic theorizing about how this next season can be different from 80% of the previous 40+ kind of miss because local media seemingly avoids really going full negative town until the February (or at least I imagine that's what happens). The rest of the country just watches from afar, for a second, and basically thinks the exact same thing as those two Boston fans in Bill Simmons and the other ex-espn guy. They just watch from afar and shake their head at how such a loyal devoted fan base can put up with such epic horse ---- (the same thing was true where I grew up, where Oakland and bay area fans put up with totally incompetent Warriors teams during the exact same post 70's era for decades until they got quality ownership and management the past decade or so and turned that ship around. No such luck for us) decade after decade.
I will add one quibble though. After the franchise spent the past half decade completely screwing up the Beal asset and yielding nothing of value from it post Wall Slip in the shower, once they were complete morons (and we all saw this slow motion train wreck happening in advance for 12-18 months) and signed Beal to the Max there wasn't a lot to be done. The team had committed sepiku for the next half decade in addition to the previous 42 years of misery, and that was that.
Honestly what were they going to do at the deadline? They could have been halfway intelligent yes, and traded Kuzma, any team with brains would, but this FO and management and ownership are morons so they didn't. The long term future and actual contending are an afterthought, cashing checks and cashing ticket/tv revenue is all they care about, so the smart thing was never going to happen and lets be sure here.
Just how bad could they be this past year? Unless they traded Beal and Porzingis the roster had simply too many decent players to do a complete successful tank the way the intelligent teams like San Antonio and Houston have done. We were never winning just 15-20 games this year. That was never going to happen. Even post deadline as the brass got a clue and started to kinda tank the past couple of weeks, they still have played at a .364 rate. That win rate will give you about 30 wins. Those 30 wins puts you nowhere near the big 3.
As it is, pre deadline the team was winning at about a 46% rate (25-29)
Post Deadline they've fallen off 10% to a 36% rate (8-14).
The one thing the team could've done, even after keeping Beal, was trade off the other pieces, and the post Deadline tank probably is a touch a better, we probably go 4-18 to 6-16, but that still puts us at 5th and that's where we are anyway right now, a team with a chance to be 5th-10th pre lottery, pretty much right around where we've almost always been since Wall went down in the shower. The upside of doing things right post-Beal Contract Catastrope was what we basically are right now, if the tank goes just right (more likely we land 7th-9th, 5th is the ceiling of our tank to be fair).
Essentially the tier breaks are at pre-lottery 3, pre lottery 7 and pre lottery 10. Unless you're 1-3, 4-7, it really matters minutely in a statistical sense. You've got the 1 in 7 or so chance in the top 3, the 1 in 9 to 1 in 14 chance in slots 4 through 7, and then the 1 in 21 chance we currently are most likely to have.
So tanking? Yes, I was always 100% for it, but Wenbenyama was always no better than a 4.5-11% chance for us this year no matter what we did post Beal Resigning.
Again, it's all deck chairs and titanic until fan's really refuse to go and treat it like redskins fans started treating home games the past decade (half empty seats taken by away fans or nobody) and ownership finally gets that cashing all this money will eventually go away when even the biggest homers realize it really is utterly hopeless unless a complete reboot happens.
Again, I'm in favor of trading our first to another hopeless team for multiple future firsts when this Beal albatross is likely to be offloaded or run its course. No chance of it happening but honestly, I'd rather stop wasting draft picks on a team not going anywhere, just trade them for future picks for teams as cursed as us (Charlotte, Orlando, Detroit, Indiana etc). Again, I realize no chance it's happening, but at least its an idea.
What you say is true.
But the funny thing is you don't even need to tank if you... just take good players. Especially when you tell them you're going to take them... Haliburton prime example.
This organization can never even luck into a franchise guy outside of the top 5-7.
