2023 NFL Draft Thread - Round 1 Thursday 7:00 PM

Post #701 » by **MickeyDavis** » Wed Apr 12, 2023 2:55 pm

Mags FTW wrote:
ReasonablySober wrote:
stillgotgame wrote:
Yep, I get it. You want to spend the 15th pick in the 1st round on the least athletic tight end drafted this year.
Talk about a crazy hill to stand on.

https://sports.yahoo.com/top-ras-performers-position-2023-150600603.html

Tight end

Zack Kuntz, Old Dominion: 10.0
Luke Musgrave, Oregon State: 9.95
Darnell Washington, Georgia: 9.85
Luke Schoonmaker, Michigan: 9.75
Tucker Kraft, South Dakota State: 9.58
Sam LaPorta, Iowa: 9.26
Will Mallory, Miami: 9.19
Brenton Strange, Penn State: 8.92
Josh Whyle, Cincinnati: 8.86
Davis Allen, Clemson: 8.77
Blake Whiteheart, Wake Forest: 8.21
Payne Durham, Purdue: 8.18
Michael Mayer, Notre Dame: 8.08

Notables drafted by Packers since 2018: Jace Sternberger (5.17), Josiah Deguara (8.49 as FB)

I want them to take Kincaid. I said I wouldn't hate taking Mayer. Have also said for months I like the idea of doubling up and taking two TEs early.

If we get the two 2nds from the Jets, I would be fine using two of our three 2nds on TEs. Decent chance there will be a run on TEs in the late 1st/early 2nd and then there is a bit of dropoff. Two of Washington/Musgrave/Kincaid would be nice.

MVP2110 · Post #702 » by **MVP2110** » Wed Apr 12, 2023 3:07 pm

Matches Malone wrote:
MVP2110 wrote:
Matches Malone wrote:
I'd love him at #15. There's going to be a great crop of players to choose from if the QBs go early or there's a surprise or two.

I'd be pretty happy with any of these guys at #15:

Paris Johnson Jr
Broderick Jones
Lukas Van Ness
Darnell Wright
Will McDonald IV
Devon Witherspoon
Christian Gonzales
Jaxson Smith-Njigba
Myles Murphey
Calijah Kancey
Joey Porter Jr.

I could maybe be talked into Nolan Smith... and Skoronski seems okay, but he has short arms, but so did Zach Tom and Rashawn Slater and that didn't stop them from playing well at the next level.

Out of the guys you've listed I'd be happy with all but two of them. I currently have Kancey 35th & McDonald 64th so I'm really low on those two compared to the consensus, especially McDonald. Everyone else you listed I have in my top 15

McDonald is definitely a project but I love his physical profile and length. Looking at him purely as a stand-up rusher, his metrics and pass rush win rate balloon vs hand in dirt. Pin his ears back and let him get to work.

I'm just not a fan of 24 year old project players. Day 2 fine, whatever, But at 15 I think there will be much better value

Matches Malone · Post #703 » by **Matches Malone** » Wed Apr 12, 2023 3:18 pm

MVP2110 wrote:
Matches Malone wrote:
MVP2110 wrote:
Out of the guys you've listed I'd be happy with all but two of them. I currently have Kancey 35th & McDonald 64th so I'm really low on those two compared to the consensus, especially McDonald. Everyone else you listed I have in my top 15

McDonald is definitely a project but I love his physical profile and length. Looking at him purely as a stand-up rusher, his metrics and pass rush win rate balloon vs hand in dirt. Pin his ears back and let him get to work.

I'm just not a fan of 24 year old project players. Day 2 fine, whatever, But at 15 I think there will be much better value

That's fair. I see a player that didn't start playing the game of football until very recently and already became an impact player setting school records all while mostly playing out of position. Less wear and tear on his body as well for being older.

Nonetheless, plenty of great options at #15 for Gute.

MVP2110 · Post #704 » by **MVP2110** » Wed Apr 12, 2023 3:29 pm

Matches Malone wrote:
MVP2110 wrote:
Matches Malone wrote:
McDonald is definitely a project but I love his physical profile and length. Looking at him purely as a stand-up rusher, his metrics and pass rush win rate balloon vs hand in dirt. Pin his ears back and let him get to work.

I'm just not a fan of 24 year old project players. Day 2 fine, whatever, But at 15 I think there will be much better value

That's fair. I see a player that didn't start playing the game of football until very recently and already became an impact player setting school records all while mostly playing out of position. Less wear and tear on his body as well for being older.

Nonetheless, plenty of great options at #15 for Gute.

Definitely, one thing I noticed as I did my study this year was just how good of a prospect we should be able to land at 15. It's probably because I'm not used to GB picking in the top half of the draft but there is no reason we can't add a really good player at a premium position. Currently my top 15 is

1. Bryce Young, QB 1
2. CJ Stroud, QB 2
3. Will Anderson, Edge 1
4. Jalen Carter, DL 1
(Tier 1 Break)

5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 1
6. Broderick Jones, OT 1
7. Paris Johnson, OT 2
8. Lukas Van Ness, Edge 2
9. Devon Witherspoon CB 1
10. Joey Porter Jr., CB 2
(Tier 2 Break)

11. Myles Murphy, Edge
12. Darnell Wright, OT 3
12. Bryan Bresee, DL 2
13. Christian Gonzalez, CB 3
14. Nolan Smith, Edge 4
15. Quentin Johnston, WR 2

Post #705 » by **ReasonablySober** » Wed Apr 12, 2023 3:44 pm

Watch on YouTube

Shades of Watson.

Matches Malone · Post #706 » by **Matches Malone** » Wed Apr 12, 2023 3:44 pm

Surprised you don't have Tyree Wilson in your top 15.

I'm not as high on Quentin Johnston as some are. Catches the ball with his body too much for my liking. That's my nit to pick.

MVP2110 · Post #707 » by **MVP2110** » Wed Apr 12, 2023 3:49 pm

Matches Malone wrote:Surprised you don't have Tyree Wilson in your top 15.

I'm not as high on Quentin Johnston as some are. Catches the ball with his body too much for my liking. That's my nit to pick.

Tyree Wilson is also a guy I'm really low on compared to the consensus. Will be 23 this year and appears stiff to me. In general I don't really like taking older guys in R1 and he also seems like a guy who needs to develop more to me. Older players who still need to develop are big red flags to me.

Ron Swanson · Post #708 » by **Ron Swanson** » Wed Apr 12, 2023 3:49 pm

I guess I don't really see McDonald as much of a "project" the way some of you guys do. He's got a nice arsenal of finesse moves, spins, etc., but I really question his strength/size combo going up against the elite tackles. Not a huge fan of taking him at 15.

MVP2110 · Post #709 » by **MVP2110** » Wed Apr 12, 2023 3:50 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:

Watch on YouTube

Shades of Watson.

I love him as a potential day 3 guy if we still could use a WR at that point.

Matches Malone · Post #710 » by **Matches Malone** » Wed Apr 12, 2023 3:51 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:Shades of Watson.

Matches Malone wrote:I think there are some good WRs in the middle rounds that I think Gute could poach from. Andrei Iosivas out of Princeton looks like a Christian Watson clone.

MVP2110 · Post #711 » by **MVP2110** » Wed Apr 12, 2023 4:03 pm

Some guys I hope we can nab on day 3

K Jake Moody
RB Evan Hull
RB Deuce Vaughn
WR Andrei Iosivas
WR Elijah Higgins
WR Matt Landers
WR Antoine Green
WR Dontayvion Wicks
CB/S Mekhi Garner
S Chamarri Conner
S Anthony Johnson Jr.
QB Max Duggar
QB Stetson Bennett
QB Clayton Tune

There might be more as just the pure volume of day 3 guys makes it hard to really study them all but I will say there are a ton of day 3 WRs I like

sdn40 · Post #712 » by **sdn40** » Wed Apr 12, 2023 4:04 pm

Kincaid will be 24 this season. Cross him off the list :nod:

MVP2110 · Post #713 » by **MVP2110** » Wed Apr 12, 2023 4:05 pm

sdn40 wrote:Kincaid will be 24 this season. Cross him off the list

Not to start this particular debate again but I have him purely in the 2nd round as a prospect

sdn40 · Post #714 » by **sdn40** » Wed Apr 12, 2023 4:06 pm

McDonald is a project if you want him to set an edge or defend the run. He gets pushed around a lot

sdn40 · Post #715 » by **sdn40** » Wed Apr 12, 2023 4:08 pm

MVP2110 wrote:
sdn40 wrote:Kincaid will be 24 this season. Cross him off the list

Not to start this particular debate again but I have him purely in the 2nd round as a prospect

I already had him crossed of my list because he's basically flex only. And because he will go in the First

Post #716 » by **ReasonablySober** » Wed Apr 12, 2023 4:09 pm

MVP2110 wrote:
sdn40 wrote:Kincaid will be 24 this season. Cross him off the list

Not to start this particular debate again but I have him purely in the 2nd round as a prospect

The Packers took at 24 year old in the first round just last year.

MVP2110 · Post #717 » by **MVP2110** » Wed Apr 12, 2023 4:10 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:
MVP2110 wrote:
sdn40 wrote:Kincaid will be 24 this season. Cross him off the list

Not to start this particular debate again but I have him purely in the 2nd round as a prospect

The Packers took at 24 year old in the first round just last year.

Yep and I hated the pick when they made it

Matches Malone · Post #718 » by **Matches Malone** » Wed Apr 12, 2023 4:13 pm

sdn40 wrote:McDonald is a project if you want him to set an edge or defend the run. He gets pushed around a lot

When he's asked to play 5-tech or 4-tech sure, but place him on the edge and it starts to become a different story with his speed and length.

Post #719 » by **ReasonablySober** » Wed Apr 12, 2023 5:07 pm

Read on Twitter

jakecronus8 · Post #720 » by **jakecronus8** » Wed Apr 12, 2023 6:47 pm

Re: Kincaid's age.

I'm normally about going super young and athletic early as well but many of those concerns with his age for me are squashed by the fact that he's only played 5 years of organized football. Still developing/learning the nuances and not much tread on the tires. I think he is the only star tight end (potential Kelce/Gronk level contributor) in this draft. Lots of depth.

Kincaid
Washington
Laporta
Musgrave
Mayer
Schoonmaker
Kraft

Would LOVE to walk away with 2 of those guys in the first two days. I also think we're going to really love Deguara this year. Lafleur's offense in general is going to be so much different now that he doesn't have to answer to anybody and I'm really excited for it.