Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread

[AFM]

That Chris Miller episode I couldn’t get through. Just turned it off. Also Brandon is such a bipolar flip flopped it’s crazy. Goes hard on Chris Miller when he’s not around then when he’s on the pod it’s all “yeaaaahhhh I agree”.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

That Chris Miller episode I couldn’t get through. Just turned it off. Also Brandon is such a bipolar flip flopped it’s crazy. Goes hard on Chris Miller when he’s not around then when he’s on the pod it’s all “yeaaaahhhh I agree”.

I got about halfway through and turned it off.

[80sballboy]

From ESPN.com

Washington Wizards

2022-23 record: 35-47

Draft picks in June: Nos. 7/8, 41 (via CHI) and 57 (via BOS)

Note: There is a tie with Indiana that will be broken after the play-in

Odds for the No. 1 pick: 6.8%

Free agents: Kyle Kuzma (P), Kristaps Porzingis (P), Kendrick Nunn, Taj Gibson and Jay Huff (R)

State of the roster: There are hard questions that need to be asked in Washington. After committing $251 million last offseason to Bradley Beal, the Wizards are in the lottery for the fourth time in five years. Can Washington find an impact player if it doesn't move up into the top four? Beyond the draft, there are questions facing the existing roster. Is the body of work when Beal, Kuzma and Porzingis are on the court together enough to keep this roster intact? In two seasons, the three have played 740 minutes together and have a net efficiency of plus-3.3. Kuzma has a $13 million player option he is likely to decline, while Porzingis faces a decision on his $36 million option. If Kuzma and Porzingis return, the Wizards are likely committing at least $100 million next season to the trio. Can the Wizards be a top-six team in the East with Beal as their best player? Beal shot a career-high 51% from the field, including 37% on 3-pointers. The Wizards were 13-14 in clutch-time games with Beal on the court and 2-11 without him. Durability remains a concern for the Wizards. After playing all 82 games in 2017-18 and 2018-19, Beal has missed 96 games the past four seasons.


Offseason finances: If Kuzma and Porzingis opt in by the June 21 deadline, the Wizards will be $8 million below the luxury tax when accounting for their first-round pick.

Top front-office priority: It starts with Porzingis and then Kuzma. Porzingis played 65 games, his most since 2016-17, averaging career highs in shooting (49.4%), 3-pointer shooting (38.2%) and points (23.0). After the All-Star break, Porzingis shot 74% on drives, the best among all players with 25-plus attempts. It would make sense from both sides for Porzingis to decline his $36 million player option and sign a new long-term contract that starts at $27 million in the first year. The trade-off for the lower first-year salary would be rewarding Porzingis, who has a lengthy injury history, with financial security in the future. Kuzma averaged a career-high 21.2 points but also on a career-high 17.8 shots per game. Per Second Spectrum tracking, he ranked 59th in field goal percentage on jump shots among 61 players with 500-plus attempts.

Extension candidate to watch: The Wizards track record of extending former first-round picks is close to non-existent. Since 2013, the only player to sign a rookie extension is John Wall. If there is a player to break the drought it is 2020 lottery pick Deni Avdija. The 22-year-old has stagnated on offense the past three seasons: 6.3, 8.3 and 9 points per game. He did have a career-high 25 points in a late March win vs. Boston. Avdija is one of the top rebounding forwards and has developed into a strong defender. Per Cleaning the Glass, Avdija ranked in the 97th percentile in defensive rebounding. Porzingis is also eligible thru June 30 to sign a four-year, $180 million extension. The salary in the first season cannot be lower than his $36 million player option.

Other extension candidates: Kuzma (through June 30 and next season if player option is exercised), Monte Morris and Isaiah Todd

Team needs: It depends if the Wizards want more scoring from the point guard position. Monte Morris and Delon Wright both ranked in the top 10 in assist-to-turnover ratio among players with 100-plus assists. However, the Washington point guards ranked 29th in points per game, ahead of only the Bulls. The Wizards also ranked 21st in second-chance points allowed.

Future draft assets: The Wizards owe New York a first-round pick that is top-12 protected in 2024, top-10 protected in 2025 and top-eight protected in 2026. It will turn into second-round picks in 2026 and 2027 if not conveyed. The earliest Washington can trade a first-round pick is two years after the conditions to New York have been met. The Wizards have four second-round picks available.

[FAH1223]

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[Frichuela]

That Chris Miller episode I couldn’t get through. Just turned it off. Also Brandon is such a bipolar flip flopped it’s crazy. Goes hard on Chris Miller when he’s not around then when he’s on the pod it’s all “yeaaaahhhh I agree”.

I got about halfway through and turned it off.

Yep. Hard to listen to. Chris Miller is such a clown.

[Jay81]

That Chris Miller episode I couldn’t get through. Just turned it off. Also Brandon is such a bipolar flip flopped it’s crazy. Goes hard on Chris Miller when he’s not around then when he’s on the pod it’s all “yeaaaahhhh I agree”.

I got about halfway through and turned it off.

Yep. Hard to listen to. Chris Miller is such a clown.

Miller is a gifted speaker but sooo much nonsense

[80sballboy]

That Chris Miller episode I couldn’t get through. Just turned it off. Also Brandon is such a bipolar flip flopped it’s crazy. Goes hard on Chris Miller when he’s not around then when he’s on the pod it’s all “yeaaaahhhh I agree”.

I got about halfway through and turned it off.

Yep. Hard to listen to. Chris Miller is such a clown.

If I had waited 15 years to get a PBP job, I'd be a homer and rep the organization as well. I didn't think it was that bad. Did talk about Monte Morris as a backup and the guy that could be left out with Goodwin and Wright in the mix. He's not going to take shots at Beal or any other player. Nobody is going to do that if they still want a job.

[closg00]

Dang, didn't know we have a highish 2nd round pick in the draft, three picks is too-many for this org, we already have a lot of young talent....but that dang.

[The Consiglieri]

What is the point of acting like this?

Read on Twitter

Trade this clown and be done with it

After seeing the comments, I was bracing for Beal to say something really bad when I played the video. I don't think he did.

I think he is just a little tired of everyone asking him if he wants to leave. They've been asking him that question for 2 straight years now. It's understandable that he is sick of it.

And that's fine but he has to get that reporters are looking at him like a dog when it tilts its head. Like, "You're good with this ---- sandwich? Why? You don't care to play another playoff game for the rest of your career in the 2nd round of the playoffs, let alone a conference championship or NBA Finals? No interest? Really?"

Reporters have a reason to be confused. They don't understand why he doesn't give a ---- about winning or the playoffs in a league where the playoffs are the only thing anyone gives any damn about whatsoever (and something the Wizards haven't been seriously relevant in since the days of Jimmy Carter, unless you consider being a first round punching bag once or twice a decade, and 1 run into the conference semifinals every 20 years or so).

Reporters have a reason to be confused. He appears to not give a damn about the only thing that matters in the league beyond making $$$. Like, at all.

[The Consiglieri]

If kispert one of the better young players we have, gets traded because of this. I'm definitely out on the FO.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

You're not out because of the past half decade of inexplicable horse manure decision making w/regards to the roster and the draft? Why would it take this to make you out?

Figure of speech I'm guessing, but this FO, just like all Wizard FO's for the most part the past 43 years have done literally nothing to deserve you being "in" on them.

[The Consiglieri]

Dang, didn't know we have a highish 2nd round pick in the draft, three picks is too-many for this org, we already have a lot of young talent....but that dang.

Not really. This org doesn't have much talent at all, might as well take swings.

[FAH1223]

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[payitforward]

The "problem" is with all of them. Beal is by no means a top 30 player, & KP isn't close to a top 20 player.

We won 35 games this year.

Here's who played for us this year & was both good & worth what they made: Delon Wright, Daniel Gafford, Jordan Goodwin, Monte Morris & Corey Kispert.

This is another thing with the way you look at players. Most advanced stats we have puts KP in the top 20 range, except for WS48, which puts him closer to top 30.

PER: #17
WS/48: #29
BPM: #19
VORP: #22
TSAdd: #20

If you don't agree with how those stats rank players, it would be good if you explained why. I understand you have a different way of evaluating players based on box scores, however, most of these advanced stats do something similar. What are the flaws in those methods compared to your viewpoint?...

Honestly, the game's not worth the candle.
All that results from a discussion of varying stat roll-ups is an unpleasant argument.
That said, here is the basis of my view:

To win a basketball game you have to score more points than your opponent. Duh.
To score more points you must shoot a higher TS% than your opponent or have more chances to score (FGAs & FTAs) than your opponent.

If you do both, you can't lose. It's mathematically impossible.
If you do neither, you can't win. It's mathematically impossible.

Thus, a player is "good" -- where the word means "helps his team win games" -- to the degree that 1) he scores points at an above average TS% (or helps his teammates do that -- registered as assists) or 2) he gets extra possessions for his team ("more chances to score...").

Because different positions do these things at different average rates, we usually compare players at the same position. Someone is "a good Point Guard" or "a good Center."

So... to figure out how good KP is -- i.e. his contribution to winning basketball games -- perhaps we should start by considering how good a Center he is.

Who would you like to compare him to? What Center, that is...? Here are 3 possibles, each very different: Domantas Sabonis, the rookie Walker Kessler, &... (I'll choose this one at random:) Clint Capela.

If this interests you, please pick one (or 2 !!), & we'll go over their numbers in this thread.

[closg00]

Dang, didn't know we have a highish 2nd round pick in the draft, three picks is too-many for this org, we already have a lot of young talent....but that dang.

Not really. This org doesn't have much talent at all, might as well take swings.

True, we desperately need talent, but there's no way we're adding 3 rookies when we're in win now mode.

[penbeast0]

The "problem" is with all of them. Beal is by no means a top 30 player, & KP isn't close to a top 20 player.

We won 35 games this year.

Here's who played for us this year & was both good & worth what they made: Delon Wright, Daniel Gafford, Jordan Goodwin, Monte Morris & Corey Kispert.

This is another thing with the way you look at players. Most advanced stats we have puts KP in the top 20 range, except for WS48, which puts him closer to top 30.

PER: #17
WS/48: #29
BPM: #19
VORP: #22
TSAdd: #20

If you don't agree with how those stats rank players, it would be good if you explained why. I understand you have a different way of evaluating players based on box scores, however, most of these advanced stats do something similar. What are the flaws in those methods compared to your viewpoint?...

Honestly, the game's not worth the candle.
All that results from a discussion of varying stat roll-ups is an unpleasant argument.
That said, here is the basis of my view:

To win a basketball game you have to score more points than your opponent. Duh.
To score more points you must shoot a higher TS% than your opponent or have more chances to score (FGAs & FTAs) than your opponent.

If you do both, you can't lose. It's mathematically impossible.
If you do neither, you can't win. It's mathematically impossible.

Thus, a player is "good" -- where the word means "helps his team win games" -- to the degree that 1) he scores points at an above average TS% (or helps his teammates do that -- registered as assists) or 2) he gets extra possessions for his team ("more chances to score...").

Because different positions do these things at different average rates, we usually compare players at the same position. Someone is "a good Point Guard" or "a good Center."

So... to figure out how good KP is -- i.e. his contribution to winning basketball games -- perhaps we should start by considering how good a Center he is.

Who would you like to compare him to? What Center, that is...? Here are 3 possibles, each very different: Domantas Sabonis, the rookie Walker Kessler, &... (I'll choose this one at random:) Clint Capela.

If this interests you, please pick one (or 2 !!), & we'll go over their numbers in this thread.

The main argument for Porzingis is that he spreads the floor as well as any big in the league while maintaining at least average defensive value as a rim protector. He isn't that efficient himself but, unlike a guy like Kessler, with him outside, it opens driving lanes for the rest of our guys to be more efficient. IF he can stay healthy, he has the highest upside on the roster at this point. Not to say he's a max money player. But he's worth resigning even at a slight overpay.

I don't feel the same about Kuzma. Although he's roughly an average forward, I don't see where he moves the needle or creates any mismatches. Rotation player money is what I'd offer but he scored 20/game this year and is versatile so can't see him resigning here for that.

[Silvie Lysandra]

Honestly, the game's not worth the candle.
All that results from a discussion of varying stat roll-ups is an unpleasant argument.
That said, here is the basis of my view:

To win a basketball game you have to score more points than your opponent. Duh.
To score more points you must shoot a higher TS% than your opponent or have more chances to score (FGAs & FTAs) than your opponent.

Which is captured in "stat rollups" at least ostensibly. They are attempts to capture, in a single metric, how well a player contributes to winning a basketball game. If you feel these "rollups" fail at doing so, you should explain why.

Thus, a player is "good" -- where the word means "helps his team win games" -- to the degree that 1) he scores points at an above average TS% (or helps his teammates do that -- registered as assists) or 2) he gets extra possessions for his team ("more chances to score...").

So the main problem with comparing KP to other centers is that most centers do not shoot the ball a lot. Normalized to 36 minutes, centers on average shoot the ball roughly 11.5 times a game (36/21.4) * 6.8 as per Statmuse. KP shoots the ball 17.3 times a game per 36 minutes. So beyond the harder to quantify value of spacing and how it affects other people's efficiency, KP gives you a lot of volume while giving you efficiency similar to much lower volume players.


Of the 31 players who have similar or higher usage to KP, only 5 of them have a higher TS% (counting Anthony Davis, who is tied). Of those 31 players, only 2 of them are centers (Jokic is slightly behind him at 27.2% usage to his 27.4). So when assessing KP's impact on winning, you have to take into account the fact that he's very efficient when compared to other *high-usage* players. Most other centers are comparatively low-usage, which is why their TS% is higher.

As for rebounding, KP is definitely weaker in that regard. Though what's interesting is that Sabonis is the best rebounder in the NBA, but the Kings are a comparatively weak rebounding team. There's a theory that sometimes a high personal rebound rate (at least for defensive rebounds) doesn't correlate to more possessions, because that individual player getting that rebound didn't change the outcome of the possession. KP is a comparatively poor rebounder, but this has translated into his team being average at rebounding. So there may be more to it than what you're implying.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

This guy is brilliant. Just gets it. Not the most physically gifted player, but he fully understands what needs to happen in Washington and is extremely self aware about the type of player he is and can become with the Klay Thompson comments.

Love the answer about analytics and 3pt shooting vs midrange.

Just straight up called out the joke of a culture with this team.

Watch on YouTube

He's probably going to be a head coach some day.

Sent from my SM-A146U using RealGM mobile app

[payitforward]

Dang, didn't know we have a highish 2nd round pick in the draft, three picks is too-many for this org, we already have a lot of young talent...

You're joking, right?
We won 35 games. We don't have a lot of "talent" of any kind.

[Kanyewest]

What is the point of acting like this?

Read on Twitter

Trade this clown and be done with it

After seeing the comments, I was bracing for Beal to say something really bad when I played the video. I don't think he did.

I think he is just a little tired of everyone asking him if he wants to leave. They've been asking him that question for 2 straight years now. It's understandable that he is sick of it.

bull. He loves being asked about it, that was just one short clip of a 5-10 minute clown show of him being cryptic and passive aggressive towards the organization and the media. The team even cut all of that out of the exit interview final video they posted. How dare anyone think that he would quietly want out? Oh hell no, he’s throwing a massive fit on the way out. How dare Josh Robbins even ask me that question? “If Beal wants out you’re gonna know”

He could always shut it down, every step of the way. He doesn’t need to give some pathetic passive aggressive rant about how he “told the people that need to know” that he’s frustrated. Clown **** man. Just finished a slightly above average starter season while making 43 million.

I suppose you can say that Beal should have responded better by it. And that it should not have been cut from the exit interview.

Still, seems like a bit much to say that Beal enjoyed the question. And that Beal had any part in cutting it from the original video.

What would be a non passive aggressive way that you would have recommended? Flipping the reporters cap?

[closg00]

Dang, didn't know we have a highish 2nd round pick in the draft, three picks is too-many for this org, we already have a lot of young players...

You're joking, right?
We won 35 games. We don't have a lot of "talent" of any kind.

Fixed and I still stand by my comment that I don't see Tommy bringing in 3 more young players while in win-now mode, we shall see...