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Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread

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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#121 » by payitforward » Thu Apr 13, 2023 2:00 pm

Chaos Revenant wrote:..."stat rollups" ...are attempts to capture, in a single metric, how well a player contributes to winning a basketball game. If you feel these "rollups" fail at doing so, you should explain why....

How much, not how well -- it's all quantitative. We are not watching a gymnastics floor routine & giving it a score.

We won 35 games this year. A bunch of our role players were quite solid; their numbers (quantitative!) were well above average. &, since those are in-game numbers, quantitative, they actually can't lie. I'm thinking of Delon Wright, Monte Morris, Jordan Goodwin, Daniel Gafford & Corey Kispert.

Thus, a player is "good" -- where the word means "helps his team win games" -- to the degree that 1) he scores points at an above average TS% (or helps his teammates do that -- registered as assists) or 2) he gets extra possessions for his team ("more chances to score...").


Chaos Revenant wrote:...So the main problem with comparing KP to other centers is that most centers do not shoot the ball a lot....

Why is this a problem? The main point of stat rollups is to arrive at single quantitative figures for how "good" players are, so that you can compare players who do very different things.

Chaos Revenant wrote:...Of the 31 players who have similar or higher usage to KP, only 5 of them have a higher TS% (counting Anthony Davis, who is tied). Of those 31 players, only 2 of them are centers (Jokic is slightly behind him at 27.2% usage to his 27.4). So when assessing KP's impact on winning, you have to take into account the fact that he's very efficient when compared to other *high-usage* players. Most other centers are comparatively low-usage, which is why their TS% is higher....

It's quantitative. Everything is in the numbers, including his volume & efficiency. There is nothing to "take into account." You just look at the numbers.

When a game ends, all we do is look at the scoreboard, & we know who won. We don't take anything into account, we don't calculate anything.

When you ask how good a dancer is, the answer is not quantitative. We consider all the variables, taking a variety of matters into account, & then we make a judgment. Basketball isn't like that. How "good" your team is, that is simply your record. How good a player is, that is simply your contribution to that record.

Comparing KP to Jokic is... I guess the only word is "unfair."

Chaos Revenant wrote:...As for rebounding, KP is definitely weaker in that regard. Though what's interesting is that Sabonis is the best rebounder in the NBA, but the Kings are a comparatively weak rebounding team. There's a theory that sometimes a high personal rebound rate (at least for defensive rebounds) doesn't correlate to more possessions, because that individual player getting that rebound didn't change the outcome of the possession. KP is a comparatively poor rebounder, but this has translated into his team being average at rebounding. So there may be more to it than what you're implying.

Sigh... :) There's a theory about everything. If the numbers don't tell you what you want to hear, then one needs to "take something into account." I.e. explain away the numbers.

But, only the numbers affect winning vs. losing. The numbers & nothing else. The Kings were 48-34 this year. We were 35-47.

Compare KP & Sabonis on the numbers:
https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?player_id2=porzikr01&p1yrfrom=2023&player_id1=sabondo01&p2yrfrom=2023&sum=0&request=1&utm_campaign=2023_01_wdgt_player_comparison&utm_source=bbr&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_id=sabondo01

It isn't close.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#122 » by DCZards » Thu Apr 13, 2023 2:51 pm

payitforward wrote:


But, only the numbers affect winning vs. losing. The numbers & nothing else. The Kings were 48-34 this year. We were 35-47.

Compare KP & Sabonis on the numbers:
https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?player_id2=porzikr01&p1yrfrom=2023&player_id1=sabondo01&p2yrfrom=2023&sum=0&request=1&utm_campaign=2023_01_wdgt_player_comparison&utm_source=bbr&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_id=sabondo01

It isn't close.

You’re gonna have to help me out here, PIF. Because when I look at the per 36 comparisons between KP and Sabonis it seems to me to be very close. Sabonis is better in assists, 2pt%, and rebs, while KP has the edge in FT attempts, FT%, 3pt %, TOs, steals, blocks, PFs, and pts.

Seems pretty close to me…some might even say KP has a solid advantage. Is that what you're saying as well?

BTW, I don't believe in using a team's W-L record as the ultimate barometer of an individual player's play or worth. Certainly a team's W-L record does not rest on the shoulders of any one player.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#123 » by dckingsfan » Thu Apr 13, 2023 3:27 pm

One way to look at it:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/

What the Kings have is three players in the top 60 and four players in the top 100.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#124 » by dobrojim » Thu Apr 13, 2023 3:48 pm

DCZards wrote:
payitforward wrote:


But, only the numbers affect winning vs. losing. The numbers & nothing else. The Kings were 48-34 this year. We were 35-47.

Compare KP & Sabonis on the numbers:
https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?player_id2=porzikr01&p1yrfrom=2023&player_id1=sabondo01&p2yrfrom=2023&sum=0&request=1&utm_campaign=2023_01_wdgt_player_comparison&utm_source=bbr&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_id=sabondo01

It isn't close.

You’re gonna have to help me out here, PIF. Because when I look at the per 36 comparisons between KP and Sabonis it seems to me to be very close. Sabonis is better in assists, 2pt%, and rebs, while KP has the edge in FT attempts, FT%, 3pt %, TOs, steals, blocks, PFs, and pts.

Seems pretty close to me…some might even say KP has a solid advantage. Is that what you're saying as well?

BTW, I don't believe in using a team's W-L record as the ultimate barometer of an individual player's play or worth. Certainly a team's W-L record does not rest on the shoulders of any one player.


https://kevinbroom.com/ppa/

By PPA, it comes down this way

Sabonis - 160
KP - 146
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#125 » by Dat2U » Thu Apr 13, 2023 4:11 pm

payitforward wrote:
Chaos Revenant wrote:..."stat rollups" ...are attempts to capture, in a single metric, how well a player contributes to winning a basketball game. If you feel these "rollups" fail at doing so, you should explain why....

How much, not how well -- it's all quantitative. We are not watching a gymnastics floor routine & giving it a score.

We won 35 games this year. A bunch of our role players were quite solid; their numbers (quantitative!) were well above average. &, since those are in-game numbers, quantitative, they actually can't lie. I'm thinking of Delon Wright, Monte Morris, Jordan Goodwin, Daniel Gafford & Corey Kispert.

Thus, a player is "good" -- where the word means "helps his team win games" -- to the degree that 1) he scores points at an above average TS% (or helps his teammates do that -- registered as assists) or 2) he gets extra possessions for his team ("more chances to score...").


Chaos Revenant wrote:...So the main problem with comparing KP to other centers is that most centers do not shoot the ball a lot....

Why is this a problem? The main point of stat rollups is to arrive at single quantitative figures for how "good" players are, so that you can compare players who do very different things.

Chaos Revenant wrote:...Of the 31 players who have similar or higher usage to KP, only 5 of them have a higher TS% (counting Anthony Davis, who is tied). Of those 31 players, only 2 of them are centers (Jokic is slightly behind him at 27.2% usage to his 27.4). So when assessing KP's impact on winning, you have to take into account the fact that he's very efficient when compared to other *high-usage* players. Most other centers are comparatively low-usage, which is why their TS% is higher....

It's quantitative. Everything is in the numbers, including his volume & efficiency. There is nothing to "take into account." You just look at the numbers.

When a game ends, all we do is look at the scoreboard, & we know who won. We don't take anything into account, we don't calculate anything.

When you ask how good a dancer is, the answer is not quantitative. We consider all the variables, taking a variety of matters into account, & then we make a judgment. Basketball isn't like that. How "good" your team is, that is simply your record. How good a player is, that is simply your contribution to that record.

Comparing KP to Jokic is... I guess the only word is "unfair."

Chaos Revenant wrote:...As for rebounding, KP is definitely weaker in that regard. Though what's interesting is that Sabonis is the best rebounder in the NBA, but the Kings are a comparatively weak rebounding team. There's a theory that sometimes a high personal rebound rate (at least for defensive rebounds) doesn't correlate to more possessions, because that individual player getting that rebound didn't change the outcome of the possession. KP is a comparatively poor rebounder, but this has translated into his team being average at rebounding. So there may be more to it than what you're implying.

Sigh... :) There's a theory about everything. If the numbers don't tell you what you want to hear, then one needs to "take something into account." I.e. explain away the numbers.

But, only the numbers affect winning vs. losing. The numbers & nothing else. The Kings were 48-34 this year. We were 35-47.

Compare KP & Sabonis on the numbers:
https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?player_id2=porzikr01&p1yrfrom=2023&player_id1=sabondo01&p2yrfrom=2023&sum=0&request=1&utm_campaign=2023_01_wdgt_player_comparison&utm_source=bbr&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_id=sabondo01

It isn't close.


One guy cost Tyrese Haliburton, the other Spencer Dinwiddie & Davis Bertans. The Wizards did well here.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#126 » by payitforward » Thu Apr 13, 2023 4:48 pm

DCZards wrote:
payitforward wrote:But, only the numbers affect winning vs. losing. The numbers & nothing else. The Kings were 48-34 this year. We were 35-47.

Compare KP & Sabonis on the numbers:
https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?player_id2=porzikr01&p1yrfrom=2023&player_id1=sabondo01&p2yrfrom=2023&sum=0&request=1&utm_campaign=2023_01_wdgt_player_comparison&utm_source=bbr&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_id=sabondo01

It isn't close.

You’re gonna have to help me out here, PIF. Because when I look at the per 36 comparisons between KP and Sabonis it seems to me to be very close. Sabonis is better in assists, 2pt%, and rebs, while KP has the edge in FT attempts, FT%, 3pt %, TOs, steals, blocks, PFs, and pts....

Every 36 minutes, KP produces 5.7 more points than Sabonis; he does it by taking 5 more shots & 1.3 more FTAs.
5.7 points on 5 & 1.3 produces a TS% of .511.
That's why Sabonis posted a .668 TS% this season -- as against KP's .627.

That's not a small difference; it's a significant difference. Yet, it pales in comparison to Sabonis' enormous advantage over KP in defensive rebounds, offensive rebounds & assists.

KP closes the gap a bit by fouling a little less & blocking more shots, but really... overall it just isn't close. It isn't close to being close. Sabonis is significantly better as a scorer, worlds better on the boards, & gets more than twice the assists.

DCZards wrote:BTW, I don't believe in using a team's W-L record as the ultimate barometer of an individual player's play or worth. Certainly a team's W-L record does not rest on the shoulders of any one player.

Agreed!
Yet, in the end a team's record does rest almost entirely on the shoulders of all the players. If they play better, they win more games.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#127 » by payitforward » Thu Apr 13, 2023 4:52 pm

Dat2U wrote:
payitforward wrote:
Chaos Revenant wrote:..."stat rollups" ...are attempts to capture, in a single metric, how well a player contributes to winning a basketball game. If you feel these "rollups" fail at doing so, you should explain why....

How much, not how well -- it's all quantitative. We are not watching a gymnastics floor routine & giving it a score.

We won 35 games this year. A bunch of our role players were quite solid; their numbers (quantitative!) were well above average. &, since those are in-game numbers, quantitative, they actually can't lie. I'm thinking of Delon Wright, Monte Morris, Jordan Goodwin, Daniel Gafford & Corey Kispert.

Thus, a player is "good" -- where the word means "helps his team win games" -- to the degree that 1) he scores points at an above average TS% (or helps his teammates do that -- registered as assists) or 2) he gets extra possessions for his team ("more chances to score...").


Chaos Revenant wrote:...So the main problem with comparing KP to other centers is that most centers do not shoot the ball a lot....

Why is this a problem? The main point of stat rollups is to arrive at single quantitative figures for how "good" players are, so that you can compare players who do very different things.

Chaos Revenant wrote:...Of the 31 players who have similar or higher usage to KP, only 5 of them have a higher TS% (counting Anthony Davis, who is tied). Of those 31 players, only 2 of them are centers (Jokic is slightly behind him at 27.2% usage to his 27.4). So when assessing KP's impact on winning, you have to take into account the fact that he's very efficient when compared to other *high-usage* players. Most other centers are comparatively low-usage, which is why their TS% is higher....

It's quantitative. Everything is in the numbers, including his volume & efficiency. There is nothing to "take into account." You just look at the numbers.

When a game ends, all we do is look at the scoreboard, & we know who won. We don't take anything into account, we don't calculate anything.

When you ask how good a dancer is, the answer is not quantitative. We consider all the variables, taking a variety of matters into account, & then we make a judgment. Basketball isn't like that. How "good" your team is, that is simply your record. How good a player is, that is simply your contribution to that record.

Comparing KP to Jokic is... I guess the only word is "unfair."

Chaos Revenant wrote:...As for rebounding, KP is definitely weaker in that regard. Though what's interesting is that Sabonis is the best rebounder in the NBA, but the Kings are a comparatively weak rebounding team. There's a theory that sometimes a high personal rebound rate (at least for defensive rebounds) doesn't correlate to more possessions, because that individual player getting that rebound didn't change the outcome of the possession. KP is a comparatively poor rebounder, but this has translated into his team being average at rebounding. So there may be more to it than what you're implying.

Sigh... :) There's a theory about everything. If the numbers don't tell you what you want to hear, then one needs to "take something into account." I.e. explain away the numbers.

But, only the numbers affect winning vs. losing. The numbers & nothing else. The Kings were 48-34 this year. We were 35-47.

Compare KP & Sabonis on the numbers:
https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?player_id2=porzikr01&p1yrfrom=2023&player_id1=sabondo01&p2yrfrom=2023&sum=0&request=1&utm_campaign=2023_01_wdgt_player_comparison&utm_source=bbr&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_id=sabondo01

It isn't close.


One guy cost Tyrese Haliburton, the other Spencer Dinwiddie & Davis Bertans. The Wizards did well here.

Absolutely!
Plus you forgot to mention that we also got a R2 pick in the deal. Who knows? Maybe that pick will bring us the next Jokic!?!?
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#128 » by gambitx777 » Thu Apr 13, 2023 4:57 pm

The Consiglieri wrote:
gambitx777 wrote:If kispert one of the better young players we have, gets traded because of this. I'm definitely out on the FO.

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You're not out because of the past half decade of inexplicable horse manure decision making w/regards to the roster and the draft? Why would it take this to make you out?

Figure of speech I'm guessing, but this FO, just like all Wizard FO's for the most part the past 43 years have done literally nothing to deserve you being "in" on them.
That's my 13th reason lol .

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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#129 » by DCZards » Thu Apr 13, 2023 5:18 pm

PIF, you’re quick to point out Sabonis' significant advantages in assists and rebounds, but conveniently ignore KP’s significant advantages in 3pt shooting, blocks, and FT shooting.

Sabonis is one of the best passing big men in the game so his assist advantage comes as no surprise and it makes sense that he gets more boards since he’s more of an interior player while KP does most of his work on the perimeter.

If you want to give Sabonis the edge fine…but no way is it by a wide margin.

BTW, if you’re ranking KP among NBA centers (which may or may not be fair), he’s #2 in FT%, #2 in FT attempts, #2 in 3pt%, #3 in pts., and top ten in assists, blocks and steals.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#130 » by FAH1223 » Thu Apr 13, 2023 5:23 pm

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Kuzma has a 95 PPA.

Deni's has a 76 PPA.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#131 » by payitforward » Thu Apr 13, 2023 6:07 pm

DCZards wrote:PIF, you’re quick to point out Sabonis' significant advantages in assists and rebounds, but conveniently ignore KP’s significant advantages in 3pt shooting, blocks, and FT shooting....

One reason not to like exchanges of this kind is that there's always a tendency for positions to harden....

KP is colossally talented. He's fun to watch & fun to root for. We got him for next to nothing. It's not like I have it in for the guy!

I didn't "ignore" anything about KP's shooting, Zards. It's just that Sabonis is an even better scorer. & I did mention KP's advantage in blocks.

In the end, maybe the key point is that if our team wins 30+ games a season, year upon year, it just won't work to keep claiming we have excellent players -- if so, why are we losing?

Above all, why are planning to run back the same guys?
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#132 » by leswizards » Thu Apr 13, 2023 6:28 pm

payitforward wrote:Meh....

For one thing, Gafford has shown over 3 seasons that he's only capable of 20 minutes a game at full effort. Don't know why, but it's been true since he entered the league.

Taj is no better than Kuz at this point; maybe even a bit worse.
Gill had a career high in minutes. Yes, objectively, he's better than Kuzma -- but imagine what he would do to the usage levels of Beal, KP, et. al. You'd see declines in their efficiency for sure.

Point is that in the end this is on the FO. They supply the players. There wasn't a way to juggle this roster to produce more wins this season. What's needed is to change this roster.

If we see Kuzma return, it'll be even more obvious.


False on many accounts.

Gafford played 30 games with 24+ minutes, 15 of those games were 28+ minutes, and 7 of those were 30+ minutes. I show this to show that Gafford is capable of playing significant minutes. Now for the bad.

Gafford had 21 games where he had less than 15 mpg and of those he had 12 games where he had less than 11 mpg.

In addition to playing Gafford more, he could have decreased kuzma’s minutes more by playing kispert exclusively at sf. According to basketball reference kispert played about 11 mpg at sg.

Playing Gafford more, and kispert exclusively at sf, and he could have reduced kuzma’s minutes up to 20 mpg. Over the course of a season, that probably would have resulted in a few extra wins.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#133 » by payitforward » Thu Apr 13, 2023 7:45 pm

leswizards wrote:
payitforward wrote:... Gafford has shown over 3 seasons that he's only capable of 20 minutes a game at full effort. Don't know why, but it's been true since he entered the league...

False on many accounts.

Gafford played 30 games with 24+ minutes, 15 of those games were 28+ minutes, and 7 of those were 30+ minutes. I show this to show that Gafford is capable of playing significant minutes. Now for the bad.

Gafford had 21 games where he had less than 15 mpg and of those he had 12 games where he had less than 11 mpg.

In addition to playing Gafford more, he could have decreased kuzma’s minutes more by playing kispert exclusively at sf. According to basketball reference kispert played about 11 mpg at sg.

Playing Gafford more, and kispert exclusively at sf, and he could have reduced kuzma’s minutes up to 20 mpg. Over the course of a season, that probably would have resulted in a few extra wins.

Good points all!
I was being lazy & just used his season average of 1604 minutes divided by 78 games.

Just noticed that Kispert was actually 3d on the team in total minutes (& only 27 minutes behind KP in total).
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#134 » by FAH1223 » Thu Apr 13, 2023 7:52 pm

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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#135 » by Jay81 » Thu Apr 13, 2023 11:30 pm

dobrojim wrote:
DCZards wrote:
payitforward wrote:


But, only the numbers affect winning vs. losing. The numbers & nothing else. The Kings were 48-34 this year. We were 35-47.

Compare KP & Sabonis on the numbers:
https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?player_id2=porzikr01&p1yrfrom=2023&player_id1=sabondo01&p2yrfrom=2023&sum=0&request=1&utm_campaign=2023_01_wdgt_player_comparison&utm_source=bbr&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_id=sabondo01

It isn't close.

You’re gonna have to help me out here, PIF. Because when I look at the per 36 comparisons between KP and Sabonis it seems to me to be very close. Sabonis is better in assists, 2pt%, and rebs, while KP has the edge in FT attempts, FT%, 3pt %, TOs, steals, blocks, PFs, and pts.

Seems pretty close to me…some might even say KP has a solid advantage. Is that what you're saying as well?

BTW, I don't believe in using a team's W-L record as the ultimate barometer of an individual player's play or worth. Certainly a team's W-L record does not rest on the shoulders of any one player.


https://kevinbroom.com/ppa/

By PPA, it comes down this way

Sabonis - 160
KP - 146

Monte morris is a 137 so this ppa stuff has to get fixed
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#136 » by payitforward » Thu Apr 13, 2023 11:41 pm

Not really. Monte Morris is quite a good player.

In fact, I've started to think that Monte is a good litmus test: someone says Morris is bad it proves he doesn't have even a beginning understanding of basketball.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#137 » by payitforward » Thu Apr 13, 2023 11:47 pm

Above average 3 pt. % -- is that good? Or is it bad?
Above average 2 pt. % -- is that good? Or is it bad?
Above average FT % -- is that good? Or is it bad?
Above average TS% -- is that good? Or is it bad?
Above average assist numbers -- is that good? Or is it bad?
Almost no turnovers -- is that good? Or is it bad?
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#138 » by Jay81 » Fri Apr 14, 2023 2:53 am

payitforward wrote:Not really. Monte Morris is quite a good player.

In fact, I've started to think that Monte is a good litmus test: someone says Morris is bad it proves he doesn't have even a beginning understanding of basketball.

I didn’t say he wasn’t good. But ppa 137 is all star. Is that what he is?
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#139 » by Kanyewest » Fri Apr 14, 2023 3:01 am

Rumors Starting to Swirl That Tim Connelly May Want Out as Wolves PoBO

https://www.minnesotasportsfan.com/rumors-tim-connelly-wants-out-timberwolves/
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#140 » by Jay81 » Fri Apr 14, 2023 3:29 am

Kanyewest wrote:Rumors Starting to Swirl That Tim Connelly May Want Out as Wolves PoBO

https://www.minnesotasportsfan.com/rumors-tim-connelly-wants-out-timberwolves/

No thanks. He destroyed a franchise faster than Ernie could dream about doing

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