Post-Mortem: 2022-23 Oklahoma City Thunder

[ElectricMayhem]

With 8 minutes left, there's still a heartbeat but it's time to call in Dr. Kevorkian.

Here is the data from previous years' Post-Mortems:
2020-21:

Spoiler:

Post-Mortem Results I: GM Confidence Meter
Post-Mortem Results II: Coaching Confidence Meter
Post-Mortem Results III: Performance Compared to Expectations
Post-Mortem Results IV: Rising/Treadmill/Waning

2021-22:
2021-22 Post Mortem Final Summary

Team Name: Oklahoma City Thunder
Record at Time of Death: 40-42(.488) (Play-in Loss)
Head of Front Office: Sam Presti (2007-)
Coach: Mark Daigneault (2020-)

Offensive Rating: 16th
Defensive Rating: 13th
Rebound %: 25th
Turnover %: 4th

Front Office: Change or keep?
Coach: Change or keep?
Relative to expectations, how did they fare this year?
Rising, falling, or treadmill?
If you were in charge, what would you do this offseason?

Notes:
Players under contract next year:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($33m)
Luguentz Dort ($15m)
Chet Holmgren ($10m)
Josh Giddey ($7m)
Kenrich Williams ($6m)
Aleksej Pokusevski ($5m)
Ousmane Dieng ($5m)
Jalen Williams ($5m)
Tre Mann ($3m)
Jaylin Williams ($2m)
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl ($2m) (Partially Guaranteed)
Isaiah Joe ($2m) (Partially Guaranteed)
Aaron Wiggins ($2m) (Partially Guaranteed)

Team Options:
Lindy Waters III

Player Options:

Free Agents:
Dario Saric
Olivier Sarr
Jared Butler

Dead Money:

Previous Post-Mortems:
30. Houston Rockets
29. San Antonio Spurs
28. Detroit Pistons
27. Charlotte Hornets
26. Portland Trail Blazers
25. Indiana Pacers
24. Washington Wizards
23. Orlando Magic
22. Utah Jazz
21. Dallas Mavericks
20. Toronto Raptors
19. New Orleans Pelicans
18. Chicago Bulls
17. Oklahoma City Thunder

[ElectricMayhem]

The Thunder took a big step forward this year. Add to that Holmgren and a mid-first this year, four 1sts next year, and a boatload of cap space and Presti has done a brilliant job setting OKC up for the future. Stay the path. I do still worry about Holmgren's ability to endure full seasons in the NBA, but if he does, he can add yet another dimension to this growing team.

[Dadouv47]

Proud of our guys. Wonderful season.

An healthy Chet is by far the most important thing for us moving forward. It's scary how much we need him.

I don't think we should make crazy moves this offseason but I hope we try to improve our frontcourt (signing a guy like PJ Washington would be great).

[Marvin Martian]

They need a big. But they have the assets to snag any big that they want

[jym85]

Really need to start consolidating those picks
Moving into the top 5 would be huge. It'll probably feel like an overpay but that's better than getting overloaded with young guys that have no space to grow

[MTJazzv3]

OKC and Jazz in the free money and picks race to get relevant. I look forward to the rivalry. I think the Jazz are ahead on it already though, with Lauri and Kessler plus Danny Ainge laser-like vision and ace development staff. The hits and misses mean so much for small market teams and I think this is peak Ainge on the learning curve plus an owner willing to spend money on top of ridiculously low committed salary and 10,000 first round picks.

[One Last Shot]

Gobert's jackhammer elbow to his face while losing 20+ points in play-in elimination game against the Wolves will conclude SGA's brilliant season. Feels like they will be better if they get another Top 5 pick this year, they miss the Playoffs anyway but they are trending upwards now and that should be a positive plus they have "war chest" of assets to trade for SGA's Pippen. Seems like a bright future for OKC until Shai decided to sign with the Raptors in 2027 or Lakers if he wanted to represent purple and gold like other generational talents do(Wilt, KAJ, Shaq, LeBron, Kobe). I just don't think he'll sign another max ontract with the Thunder eventhough they can assemble the best team possible asset-wise if they play their cards right. There could be an SGA sweepstakes in the trade market if Shai refuse to sign a contract extension. We'll see.

[Frank Dux]

I really love the foundation Presti built with this core. It’s a huge accomplishment they made it as far as they did this season.

[theGreatRC]

Future is extremely bright, they get Chet next season and we already know they are going to nail their lotto pick this summer.

Love SGA as well

[Tempe]

As talented as SGA is, this season seems like fools gold for OKC in a down western conference. Hard to see a path to climbing to top 4 in the west. Just as likely they end up bottom 4 next year. Not sold on Chet being impactful whenever he comes back due to body type concerns. Most of these future draft picks are unlikely to be impactful either. Other GMs are not going to trade real assets for the OKC mystery box of picks because they know OKC can’t roster that many rookies over a 3-4 year period.


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[VanWest82]

Such a fun team. I like so many of their players. SGA, Giddey, and Dort are a great perimeter trio. These guys need a legit big. Chet could be great but Thunder need someone like Jakob Poeltl or Steven Adams to help in match ups where they just don't match up. I hope they don't waste another year making that mistake. They're too good for that.

[Johnny Tomala]

Keep, keep, better, rising.

[KGtabake]

Τhis team is going to be better than the Westbrook Durant etc. Thunder.
Alexander and Giddey along with (hopefully) Holmgren will be the foundation. Guys like Williams and Dort the ideal pieces around them.
A bazillion of picks to trade.
What's not to like? Exciting future.

[timO]

tradeup in the draft using future picks, or trade for another lottery pick its a possibility like past year.

The FA is bad, maybe throw 60/3 to Wood/Grant or similar.

[ThunderBolt]

As talented as SGA is, this season seems like fools gold for OKC in a down western conference. Hard to see a path to climbing to top 4 in the west. Just as likely they end up bottom 4 next year. Not sold on Chet being impactful whenever he comes back due to body type concerns. Most of these future draft picks are unlikely to be impactful either. Other GMs are not going to trade real assets for the OKC mystery box of picks because they know OKC can’t roster that many rookies over a 3-4 year period.


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If you discredit everything that happened this year, believe our biggest injured asset is a bust and think our gm won’t be able to draft anyone good and nor is he smart enough to make beneficial grades, then yes, I agree completely. The future is indeed bleak.

[Ni Da Ye]

OKC should have tanked like the Mavs.

[hardenASG13]

Gobert's jackhammer elbow to his face while losing 20+ points in play-in elimination game against the Wolves will conclude SGA's brilliant season. Feels like they will be better if they get another Top 5 pick this year, they miss the Playoffs anyway but they are trending upwards now and that should be a positive plus they have "war chest" of assets to trade for SGA's Pippen. Seems like a bright future for OKC until Shai decided to sign with the Raptors in 2027 or Lakers if he wanted to represent purple and gold like other generational talents do(Wilt, KAJ, Shaq, LeBron, Kobe). I just don't think he'll sign another max ontract with the Thunder eventhough they can assemble the best team possible asset-wise if they play their cards right. There could be an SGA sweepstakes in the trade market if Shai refuse to sign a contract extension. We'll see.

I like what OKC is doing, but SGA's Pippen? Generational talent? Really? He's an extremely good 1 on 1 scorer and had a great year, but this is a bit of a stretch.

[Godymas]

if you legitimately saw SGA ascending to a 30 ppg scoring machine that singlehandedly carries a team of rookies and G-Leaguers to a near playoff spot you're lying to yourself

I remember listening to a Lowe post not too long after the PG trade saying "well what do they have with Shai? Maybe he becomes an All Star one day?"

Nope, he looks like he could be top 10 in the league right now. It's hard to find a single hole in the way SGA plays basketball.

Then there's Josh Giddey, god damn do I love this guy. Seriously cannot wait for the multiple All NBA selections that will be coming for him. The fact that he can do all this and be 6'8.

Jaylin Williams a nice lil pick-up obviously, crucial starter for them moving forward. The best part is we haven't even seen them with Chet Holmgrem. Chet was supposed to be the story of the season and then SGA just completely dominated. Most people forgot that OKC still has Chet. If they can develop Chet correctly, I really really like this core, they could be more dominant than the first big 3 in OKC.

Most exciting team in the league by far, I hope they get nice vets soon to play around these guys and fill the locker room, get a legitimate center for the team of course.

Don't forget they have so many god damn picks in the up and coming drafts for a historically great drafting franchise. They can find nice deep picks in drafts, Tyrese Maxey's, Desmond Banes of the world and get these guys on rookie deals to surround their max guys in SGA and Giddey (maybe Holmgrem) the future is going to be scary. We could be witnessing the outcome of one of the greatest rebuilds ever.

[Tempe]

As talented as SGA is, this season seems like fools gold for OKC in a down western conference. Hard to see a path to climbing to top 4 in the west. Just as likely they end up bottom 4 next year. Not sold on Chet being impactful whenever he comes back due to body type concerns. Most of these future draft picks are unlikely to be impactful either. Other GMs are not going to trade real assets for the OKC mystery box of picks because they know OKC can’t roster that many rookies over a 3-4 year period.


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If you discredit everything that happened this year, believe our biggest injured asset is a bust and think our gm won’t be able to draft anyone good and nor is he smart enough to make beneficial grades, then yes, I agree completely. The future is indeed bleak.

They went 40-42 in a down western conference and got blown out in the final play in spot. Half the confefence was tanking by the end. Highly possible this is the high watermark for OKC the next few years.

I agree Presti is a good Gm and OKC has good talent evaluators. But stacking these picks in the 15-30 range is unlikely to result in a superstar player. No GM is going to take this bundle of picks for an elite player of real value or a top 3 pick. Without that superstar player, the team’s ceiling under current construction is a consistent 6-10 seed western team.


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[Dadouv47]

OKC and Jazz in the free money and picks race to get relevant. I look forward to the rivalry. I think the Jazz are ahead on it already though, with Lauri and Kessler plus Danny Ainge laser-like vision and ace development staff. The hits and misses mean so much for small market teams and I think this is peak Ainge on the learning curve plus an owner willing to spend money on top of ridiculously low committed salary and 10,000 first round picks.

future looks bright in Utah but I don't get that. I would take SGA over Lauri by a significant margin and probably Jdub over Kessler (this one is close). Still add Giddey, Chet, Dort and the gap is still pretty big which is fine since Utah started their rebuild this season.

Lotto luck, drafting skill and developement will change the outcome of those rebuilds though and both franchises are pretty good at it so we should have a lot of great Jazz/Thunder games in the future.