Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread

[payitforward]

...I will give credit to the brass for stealing the Mavs blind for Porzingis....

We didn't steal them blind. Not at all.
There were no better offers for Porzingis; that's all. IOW, he was a player with very low value -- esp. for an ex high-pick who is obviously extremely talented.

...What we should do after having rehabilitated his value this past season...

Ooops! That's an assumption, & we don't know whether it's a fact. KP has been around a long time. Execs around the league have seen him fail to improve any team he's with. Including ours.

...is sign and trade him for future building assets but we're run by morons so we won't)....

100% correct on both counts!

...it's exceptionally rare that NBA teams ever want to carry over 3 or 4 rookies into a season....

Not true.
I wouldn't be fool enough to claim that 4 rookies is common, but 3 or 4 isn't "exceptionally rare." For example:

OKC had 4 rookies this year. They had 3 rookies last year. Detroit had 5 this year. GS had 3. Denver had 3. Houston had 5. Indy had 3.
Memphis -- a team that won 50 plus games last year -- had 5 rookies this year. 3 the year before. & 4 the year before that. Utah had 3 rookies this season. San Antonio had 5 (as did Boston had 3 in '19-20).

Hell, come to think of it, we had Goodwin, Davis, Cooks, Dotson, Jackson & Schakel! -- tho only Goodwin got real minutes!

...I will say, if they move picks in round 2 for future assets I'll have no complaints. This team is going to continue on this deluded path for at least one more season so there's not a lot of value in losing 1 year of control of a rookie in what is 1000% guaranteed to be another lost season.

Sadly, I fear there are quite a lot of lost seasons to come....

[dckingsfan]

So, my keys to the off-season are:

1) Will Beal come back healthy and as his old self - I think this is highly uncertain.
2) Will Porzingis get extended - I think this highly probable.
3) Will any of the youngsters take a "material leap".
4) Will they resign Kuzma or S&T him - I really don't know what to think here.
5) Will they have a meaningful draft - someone that can contribute from day one - given our history, I think this is highly uncertain.

[9 and 20]

Key to the offseason is whether or not the Celtics flame out in the playoffs!

[payitforward]

Key to the offseason is whether or not the Celtics flame out in the playoffs!

I've been assuming you'd come back in & explain this.

I take you to mean that if the Celtics do "flame out," they will be motivated to trade for Beal? Unite him with his young buddy Tatum?

Is that what you mean?
Or...?

[bsilver]

Key to the offseason is whether or not the Celtics flame out in the playoffs!

Hard to imagine anything that could happen that would lead Celtics to exchange Jaylen Brown for Beal. More likely Miami getting beat bad by Bucks will will tempt them to after Beal. Not many teams like the Heat that have expensive contracts that would like to shed that come near Beal’s salary.

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

[pcbothwel]

Key to the offseason is whether or not the Celtics flame out in the playoffs!

Hard to imagine anything that could happen that would lead Celtics to exchange Jaylen Brown for Beal. More likely Miami getting beat bad by Bucks will will tempt them to after Beal. Not many teams like the Heat that have expensive contracts that would like to shed that come near Beal’s salary.

What am I missing about brown?
Per 36, Beal is the more complete and efficient scorer. Giving you 1.7 less points, but on 2 less FGA.
They average the same amount of turnovers, but Beal gives you two more assist. So Beal is clearly the better offensive player on a number of fronts.
Brown is better defensively, but Beal actually gives you more STOCKs than brown.

The only area that stands out is rebounding. However, the entire disparity is basically defensive rebounds and I question how much individual defensive rebounding really matters. Especially for a backcourt player.

[gesa2]

Key to the offseason is whether or not the Celtics flame out in the playoffs!

Hard to imagine anything that could happen that would lead Celtics to exchange Jaylen Brown for Beal. More likely Miami getting beat bad by Bucks will will tempt them to after Beal. Not many teams like the Heat that have expensive contracts that would like to shed that come near Beal’s salary.

What am I missing about brown?
Per 36, Beal is the more complete and efficient scorer. Giving you 1.7 less points, but on 2 less FGA.
They average the same amount of turnovers, but Beal gives you two more assist. So Beal is clearly the better offensive player on a number of fronts.
Brown is better defensively, but Beal actually gives you more STOCKs than brown.

The only area that stands out is rebounding. However, the entire disparity is basically defensive rebounds and I question how much individual defensive rebounding really matters. Especially for a backcourt player.

Age and Salary

[9 and 20]

Key to the offseason is whether or not the Celtics flame out in the playoffs!

I've been assuming you'd come back in & explain this.

I take you to mean that if the Celtics do "flame out," they will be motivated to trade for Beal? Unite him with his young buddy Tatum?

Is that what you mean?
Or...?

This depends - are you attempting to turn this into a discussion of

a. acceptable stats
b. some message board comment from 2018
c. brandon clarke
d. all of the above

[payitforward]

Key to the offseason is whether or not the Celtics flame out in the playoffs!

I've been assuming you'd come back in & explain this.

I take you to mean that if the Celtics do "flame out," they will be motivated to trade for Beal? Unite him with his young buddy Tatum?

Is that what you mean?
Or...?

This depends - are you attempting to turn this into a discussion of

a. acceptable stats
b. some message board comment from 2018
c. brandon clarke
d. all of the above

...actually, I'm just interested in understanding what you mean.
So I'll ignore your flamethrower & ask again, hoping that this time you'll simply discuss the interesting idea you brought up...

Why/how is "whether or not the Celtics flame out" key to the off season?

[pcbothwel]

Hard to imagine anything that could happen that would lead Celtics to exchange Jaylen Brown for Beal. More likely Miami getting beat bad by Bucks will will tempt them to after Beal. Not many teams like the Heat that have expensive contracts that would like to shed that come near Beal’s salary.

What am I missing about brown?
Per 36, Beal is the more complete and efficient scorer. Giving you 1.7 less points, but on 2 less FGA.
They average the same amount of turnovers, but Beal gives you two more assist. So Beal is clearly the better offensive player on a number of fronts.
Brown is better defensively, but Beal actually gives you more STOCKs than brown.

The only area that stands out is rebounding. However, the entire disparity is basically defensive rebounds and I question how much individual defensive rebounding really matters. Especially for a backcourt player.

Age and Salary

Im still not seeing the purpose.
Brown makes less than Beal, but only for 1 more year. We then will be stuck resigning Brown for a 5/240M deal cover ages 28-32.. Is that really THAT much better than Beal for 5/250M for ages 29-33?

To me, the plan should be to keep Beal and KP and keep surrounding them with young talent. On the 5-10% chance we breakthrough due to a huge jump from Deni/Kispert/Davis... AWESOME.

But in all likelihood, we dont and we move Beal to a contender for young cost-controlled talent and/or picks.
Assuming Beal doesnt have a season like 21/22 or have a severe injury, then I think his value keeps going up. A lot of AS/All-NBA caliber players are hitting FA in the early to mid 30's this year (Harden, Kyrie, Middleton) along with a few "Solid" starters around Beal's (Barnes, Grant, Levert, Kuz).

2025 is going to be a lot like 2016. If you go back to 2015/16, you'll see a lot of contracts that looked pretty bad (Aldridge, Wes Matthews, Brook Lopez, Monroe, etc.). Aldridge, for example, was the 11th highest paid player in the league in 2015/16. By the next year, he was all the way down to 27.
And while Beal can only fall so far becuase of how high his salary is, the gap will certainly be closed. I.E. Beal made 43M last year in a league where ~25 guys make 35M+
In 25/26, Beal (Year 3 of 5) will be making 53M you'll have just as many or more making 40M or more... with much more on the horizon.

[NatP4]

Problem is Kuzma. None of the young guys are developing with Kuzma playing 35+ minutes a night and jacking up 20 something shots. It’s plain and simple. We also carry this silly “win now” philosophy whenever the “big 3” are all out there. There’s no developmental angle.

End of the year was fun because we actually got to see Goodwin/Davis/Kispert/Jackson in significant roles with Kuzma out.

[payitforward]

Key to the offseason is whether or not the Celtics flame out in the playoffs!

Hard to imagine anything that could happen that would lead Celtics to exchange Jaylen Brown for Beal. More likely Miami getting beat bad by Bucks will will tempt them to after Beal. Not many teams like the Heat that have expensive contracts that would like to shed that come near Beal’s salary.

What am I missing about brown?
Per 36, Beal is the more complete and efficient scorer. Giving you 1.7 less points, but on 2 less FGA.
They average the same amount of turnovers, but Beal gives you two more assist. So Beal is clearly the better offensive player on a number of fronts.
Brown is better defensively, but Beal actually gives you more STOCKs than brown.

The only area that stands out is rebounding. However, the entire disparity is basically defensive rebounds and I question how much individual defensive rebounding really matters. Especially for a backcourt player.

There's no productivity gap whatever between Brown & Beal on the '22-23 season.
One wasn't better than the other in the slightest on the season.

OTOH, Jaylen Brown is 3 years, 3 months, 3 weeks, & 3 days younger than Bradley Beal (I kid you not!).

The Celtics would not give us Brown straight up for Beal. They'd be nuts to do that.
But if they were willing, of course we'd go for that trade. We'd be nuts not to.

Why? Because being younger he'd be easier to trade for what we really needs -- future assets. Picks & very young players. As many as possible.

Neither guy is any help in getting out of our current situation.
Replace Beal with Brown & we are still a 35-win team.

[payitforward]

...To me, the plan should be to keep Beal and KP and keep surrounding them with young talent....

Sigh... -- you never change!
No. The plan should be to rebuild. To actually change the Washington Wizards into a different team. Because we stink. & there is zero reason to imagine we'll improve based on incremental changes around Brad.

...On the 5-10% chance we breakthrough due to a huge jump from Deni/Kispert/Davis... AWESOME.....

Oh come on!
No decisions of any kind should be made based on that possibility.

...But in all likelihood, we ...move Beal to a contender for young cost-controlled talent and/or picks.
Assuming Beal doesn't have a season like 21/22 or have a severe injury, then I think his value keeps going up.....

Guys' value doesn't usually go up in their 30s. It usually goes down.

Brad this year wasn't at the level of Brad at his peak. & he also played in only 50 games. Making decisions based on an unrealistically positive assessment of Brad's probable future is a mistake.

We could have gotten a whole lot more for Brad in '20-21 than we can now. Most likely we will be saying something similar 2 years hence.

...In 25/26, Beal (Year 3 of 5) will be making 53M you'll have just as many or more making 40M or more... with much more on the horizon.

Justifying Beal's salary now or in '25 does nothing to help this team.

In '18-19 we went 32-50. 19-20 we were a 28 win team (on an 82 game season). in '20-21 we rose to the dizzying heights of a 38-39 win team (on an 82 game season). Followed by a pair of 35-win seasons

That's 5 years with no improvement. Ending w/ a 35-47 season.

Things are more likely to be worse next year than they are to be better. It's time to draw the curtain on the so-called Bradley Beal era. Actually, it's long past the time.

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

[bsilver]

Key to the offseason is whether or not the Celtics flame out in the playoffs!

Hard to imagine anything that could happen that would lead Celtics to exchange Jaylen Brown for Beal. More likely Miami getting beat bad by Bucks will will tempt them to after Beal. Not many teams like the Heat that have expensive contracts that would like to shed that come near Beal’s salary.

What am I missing about brown?
Per 36, Beal is the more complete and efficient scorer. Giving you 1.7 less points, but on 2 less FGA.
They average the same amount of turnovers, but Beal gives you two more assist. So Beal is clearly the better offensive player on a number of fronts.
Brown is better defensively, but Beal actually gives you more STOCKs than brown.

The only area that stands out is rebounding. However, the entire disparity is basically defensive rebounds and I question how much individual defensive rebounding really matters. Especially for a backcourt player.

Beal might be a little better on offense, but I think Brown is much better on defense, IMO. So, overall Brown is better.
Age is a big deal. Beal will most likely decline much earlier than Brown. Beal's contract is a disaster, and could be even worse in the later years.
Brown provides more flexibility, playing both SG and SF.
Brown is cheaper. So far hasn't qualified for super-max contract. Could be significant difference in cost over time.

[9 and 20]

I've been assuming you'd come back in & explain this.

I take you to mean that if the Celtics do "flame out," they will be motivated to trade for Beal? Unite him with his young buddy Tatum?

Is that what you mean?
Or...?

This depends - are you attempting to turn this into a discussion of

a. acceptable stats
b. some message board comment from 2018
c. brandon clarke
d. all of the above

...actually, I'm just interested in understanding what you mean.
So I'll ignore your flamethrower & ask again, hoping that this time you'll simply discuss the interesting idea you brought up...

Why/how is "whether or not the Celtics flame out" key to the off season?

If the Celtics flame out in the playoffs, that sets it up nicely for us. Brown has been very Kuzm-ish in his commitment to re-signing in Boston. Tatum and Beal have I'm sure talked about teaming up. I would 100% swap Beal for Brown but more than that, I'd really like to see them ship out Beal, have Brown go to a third team, and blow this bad boy up. Celtics are happy and stay among the best teams, Beal plays with his buddy and doesn't come out looking like the bad guy for leaving his home town, Brown gets paid and gets his own team, and we finally admit the obvious. Only turd in the moussaka is Leonsis, who won't want to let it happen.

[payitforward]

This depends - are you attempting to turn this into a discussion of

a. acceptable stats
b. some message board comment from 2018
c. brandon clarke
d. all of the above

...actually, I'm just interested in understanding what you mean.
So I'll ignore your flamethrower & ask again, hoping that this time you'll simply discuss the interesting idea you brought up...

Why/how is "whether or not the Celtics flame out" key to the off season?

If the Celtics flame out in the playoffs, that sets it up nicely for us. Brown has been very Kuzm-ish in his commitment to re-signing in Boston. Tatum and Beal have I'm sure talked about teaming up. I would 100% swap Beal for Brown but more than that, I'd really like to see them ship out Beal, have Brown go to a third team, and blow this bad boy up. Celtics are happy and stay among the best teams, Beal plays with his buddy and doesn't come out looking like the bad guy for leaving his home town, Brown gets paid and gets his own team, and we finally admit the obvious. Only turd in the moussaka is Leonsis, who won't want to let it happen.

Thanks for responding -- the picture you paint would be utterly ideal!

It does seem impossible, but... were Beal to look for a trade to Boston, perhaps that would be enough for Ted & the whole Wiz FO to take advantage of an opportunity to start over -- at least one can dream...!

[pcbothwel]

Beal might be a little better on offense, but I think Brown is much better on defense, IMO. So, overall Brown is better.
Age is a big deal. Beal will most likely decline much earlier than Brown. Beal's contract is a disaster, and could be even worse in the later years.
Brown provides more flexibility, playing both SG and SF.
Brown is cheaper. So far hasn't qualified for super-max contract. Could be significant difference in cost over time.

1) "Might be a little better". Yeah... Nice try. Beal is the better scorer & playmaker as the 1st option than Brown as the 2nd option. He IS BETTER offensively.
2) "Cost over Time"... Do you doubt that Brown will get the Max? I dont. So we are stuck paying 5/240M to Brown. Sorry 2M/year is not in the realm of significant.
3) But wait... what if Brown hates it in DC? He can walk out the door next summer for nothing... Now that is a disaster.

If we trade Beal, we are resetting our timeline. If Boston will give us Brown... great. But Im trading him to a 3rd team.

Sigh... -- you never change!

I am not saying we should keep Beal. Im saying the best value we get for him will be at the deadline. His salary is too high and too many teams that would be interested in Beal are not able to match the salaries.

Simple. We should trade Beal... for the best value possible. That means waiting until next deadline, which is what I have been saying for over a year.

[payitforward]

...If we trade Beal, we are resetting our timeline. If Boston will give us Brown... great. But Im trading him to a 3rd team....

Agreed! & "resetting our timeline" is something we must do, because at present we have no timeline. We have 1 young asset who is developing nicely (Kispert), one problematic young talent entering his 4th year (Deni -- & this is it: it's now or never), & Jordan Goodwin (a pleasant surprise to be sure). That's pretty slim.

Other than that, we have a steadily declining asset in Beal, a multiple team cast-off in KP, & a few journeyman types. We are certainly not heading upwards, & in fact it's likely we keep heading down for some years to come.

Sigh... -- you never change!...

...I am not saying we should keep Beal....

Yeah you are! You think we should be adding talent around Beal & Porzingis. Your words, old friend! & familiar they are!

...Im saying the best value we get for him will be at the deadline. His salary is too high and too many teams that would be interested in Beal are not able to match the salaries.

Simple. We should trade Beal... for the best value possible. That means waiting until next deadline, which is what I have been saying for over a year.

Fine fine fair enough.
But there's an illusion at work all the same -- the illusion that we are going to get much value for Beal. There was a window for that but it closed long ago.

At this point just getting his contract off the books would be a triumph. Won't be easy.

When you make a mistake, you pay for it. Every time. It was a mistake not to move Beal a few deadlines ago. We've just gotten started paying for that mistake. There's a lot more to pay. Worse to come.