2023 Offseason

[CrimsonCrew]

Team signed Matt Pryor to a one-year deal. Another journeyman OL type who has experience at both tackle spots and inside. Just more bodies in case we need them. Presumably he'll compete with McKivitz for the starting spot at RT, and with Feliciano for a backup spot.

[CrimsonCrew]

Lots being made of Lynch's comments about the QB situation recently. Basically, he said there would be a three-way competition for QB, and Brock has the inside track. I think it's being a little overblown. Lynch can be more candid than some, but at the end of the day, I think it was basically coach-speak about competition.

Yes, Purdy earned the first crack at the starting gig with his play last year, all else being equal. But...all else is not equal. Purdy is in a brace, recovering from major surgery, and we don't know when he'll be back. So I don't view that part as all that meaningful.

The other aspect is the suggestion that it's an even competition between Lance and Darnold. Again, all else being equal, it should be a competition for every single guy on the roster. But if it's even close on this one, you give the nod to Lance. You don't do it because of his draft status, though that is something that's hard to ignore when you consider the resources we gave up to get the guy.

You do it primarily because we have seen - and seen, and seen - Sam Darnold in live NFL action. 55 NFL starts over five seasons. And it's been really bad. Sure, you can look at the circumstances and explain certain things away. But at the end of the day, unlike Lance, he's had an opportunity to really show what he can do over an extended period of time. And he's consistently disappointed. Lance may also disappoint, but he has nothing like the sample size to show it. For that reason, as said, unless Darnold is CLEARLY superior in practices and pre-season, you have to give Lance the nod.

Plenty of guys play well in practice and poorly in games, and vice versa. Lance needs work in an NFL pocket, making NFL reads while NFL defenders try to get him. That's the biggest single question with him, followed shortly by his accuracy. Purdy showed an ability to make plays under duress this last year. To date, Lance hasn't. Yes, at times he has shown an ability to step out of the pocket, extend a play, move around with his eyes downfield, and make a throw. But he doesn't navigate the pocket very well. If pressure gets through quickly, he doesn't have the quick release to make a play with pressure in his face or the feel to buy himself an extra half-second. For me, that's the thing that will make or break him more than anything. If you can't play in traffic in the NFL, you can't play in the NFL.

[Samurai]

Team signed Matt Pryor to a one-year deal. Another journeyman OL type who has experience at both tackle spots and inside. Just more bodies in case we need them. Presumably he'll compete with McKivitz for the starting spot at RT, and with Feliciano for a backup spot.

Last season, in 388 pass-blocking snaps, Pryor allowed a whopping 31 pressures and 6 sacks. But in 2021, he only allowed 8 pressures and 0 sacks in 241 pass-blocking snaps. If we get the 2021 version, he could be a useful addition for OL depth. If we get the 2022 version, we will need to sign a lot more QB's just to make it through the season.

[CrimsonCrew]

Team signed Matt Pryor to a one-year deal. Another journeyman OL type who has experience at both tackle spots and inside. Just more bodies in case we need them. Presumably he'll compete with McKivitz for the starting spot at RT, and with Feliciano for a backup spot.

Last season, in 388 pass-blocking snaps, Pryor allowed a whopping 31 pressures and 6 sacks. But in 2021, he only allowed 8 pressures and 0 sacks in 241 pass-blocking snaps. If we get the 2021 version, he could be a useful addition for OL depth. If we get the 2022 version, we will need to sign a lot more QB's just to make it through the season.

That is not great. We'll see what he can do in this system. The good news is that our division is suddenly one of the weakest in the league in terms of edge rushers, though I would expect Arizona and Seattle, at least, to attack that position aggressively in the draft.

[CrimsonCrew]

Off-topic, but pretty bizarre 2021 re-draft. Lance still goes top-10, and Hufanga goes 7 (?!?!).

https://www.nfl.com/news/2021-nfl-draft-do-over-jets-pick-justin-fields-trey-lance-still-top-10-choice

[Samurai]

Nice to have Kerry Hyder back. He provides versatility as a primary edge backup behind Bosa and Ferrell and also played more snaps
inside than on the edge last season.

[Samurai]

Nice to have Kerry Hyder back. He provides versatility as a primary edge backup behind Bosa and Ferrell and also played more snaps inside than on the edge last season.

[CrimsonCrew]

Niners signed WR Chris Conley. Interesting move. Conley isn't anything special certainly, a third receiver at his best, and that was several years ago. But he's a different guy from the types of WRs the team has typically gone for. He's a pretty big (6'2", 213 pound) straight-line, deep threat type (4.35 40). I can't remember the last time we've had that sort of player on the squad. Seems to be an add with an eye to more downfield passing, or at least opening things up underneath. It could also be something of an indictment on Danny Gray, who would theoretically occupy a similar spot.

It's funny, I was listening to an episode of Locked on 49ers from a few days ago, and Crocker and Peacock were both saying that they liked AT Perry out of Wake Forest, but couldn't see him with the Niners. I haven't watched any of Perry, but their description sounded like the sort of guy Conley has been in the league (though Perry's 40 time wasn't in the same realm as Conley's). Conley had come on the Niners' radar after the episode dropped. This move might indicate a shift in their approach at the position, at least in terms of adding a different type of player to compete.

[Samurai]

Niners signed WR Chris Conley. Interesting move. Conley isn't anything special certainly, a third receiver at his best, and that was several years ago. But he's a different guy from the types of WRs the team has typically gone for. He's a pretty big (6'2", 213 pound) straight-line, deep threat type (4.35 40). I can't remember the last time we've had that sort of player on the squad. Seems to be an add with an eye to more downfield passing, or at least opening things up underneath. It could also be something of an indictment on Danny Gray, who would theoretically occupy a similar spot.

It's funny, I was listening to an episode of Locked on 49ers from a few days ago, and Crocker and Peacock were both saying that they liked AT Perry out of Wake Forest, but couldn't see him with the Niners. I haven't watched any of Perry, but their description sounded like the sort of guy Conley has been in the league (though Perry's 40 time wasn't in the same realm as Conley's). Conley had come on the Niners' radar after the episode dropped. This move might indicate a shift in their approach at the position, at least in terms of adding a different type of player to compete.

I think the addition of Conley is an indication that Danny Gray's future is indeed murky. Can't really see what his role will be. Certainly isn't replacing Deebo or Aiyuk. Isn't a big 3rd down target like Jennings. And we have Ray Ray as our returner. I wasn't expecting Gray to turn into Bob Hayes or Cliff Branch overnight, but he, along with Kinlaw, may have been the biggest disappointments to me. The primary difference between Gray and Conley seems to be their blocking. Conley has called himself "the best blocking WR in the league" while with the Titans and he has had two seasons with a run blocking grade over 80. And we know that if you want playing time as a WR for Shanahan, you have to be able to run block. And Conley also plays on Special Teams.

Conley also ran his 4.35 40 back in 2015; at age 30, I doubt he is still that fast. But it takes more than just world class speed to make it as a WR in the NFL - just ask Renaldo Nehemiah!

[CrimsonCrew]

Niners signed WR Chris Conley. Interesting move. Conley isn't anything special certainly, a third receiver at his best, and that was several years ago. But he's a different guy from the types of WRs the team has typically gone for. He's a pretty big (6'2", 213 pound) straight-line, deep threat type (4.35 40). I can't remember the last time we've had that sort of player on the squad. Seems to be an add with an eye to more downfield passing, or at least opening things up underneath. It could also be something of an indictment on Danny Gray, who would theoretically occupy a similar spot.

It's funny, I was listening to an episode of Locked on 49ers from a few days ago, and Crocker and Peacock were both saying that they liked AT Perry out of Wake Forest, but couldn't see him with the Niners. I haven't watched any of Perry, but their description sounded like the sort of guy Conley has been in the league (though Perry's 40 time wasn't in the same realm as Conley's). Conley had come on the Niners' radar after the episode dropped. This move might indicate a shift in their approach at the position, at least in terms of adding a different type of player to compete.

I think the addition of Conley is an indication that Danny Gray's future is indeed murky. Can't really see what his role will be. Certainly isn't replacing Deebo or Aiyuk. Isn't a big 3rd down target like Jennings. And we have Ray Ray as our returner. I wasn't expecting Gray to turn into Bob Hayes or Cliff Branch overnight, but he, along with Kinlaw, may have been the biggest disappointments to me. The primary difference between Gray and Conley seems to be their blocking. Conley has called himself "the best blocking WR in the league" while with the Titans and he has had two seasons with a run blocking grade over 80. And we know that if you want playing time as a WR for Shanahan, you have to be able to run block. And Conley also plays on Special Teams.

Conley also ran his 4.35 40 back in 2015; at age 30, I doubt he is still that fast. But it takes more than just world class speed to make it as a WR in the NFL - just ask Renaldo Nehemiah!

Gray is an interesting one. He did some deep threat stuff in college, but not nearly as much as you might expect for a guy with his speed. More often - at least based on what I was able to see - he was used on screens and crossers where he got the ball in space and used his speed to run away from defenders. His quickness numbers were awful (his three-cone was probably under the fifth percentile and his short shuttle was 18th percentile, and that was at the pro day), so he's not very likely to ever be a complete receiver. Though even as I say that, I'm realizing his numbers are actually very similar to Garrett Wilson, who looks like a legit #1 receiver. I'll post those below for anyone interested.

I thought Gray's college usage actually made him a better fit in a Shanahan offense than as a pure deep threat, though, as Shanahan can scheme guys open as well as anyone, and Gray's speed gives him some legit YAC ability. But obviously we haven't seen it to date. I still think there's a role for him, but he needs to prove it on the field at some point.

Re: Gray and Wilson, which I just noticed while trying to find analogs for Gray's measurables, here's how they stack up:

Gray: 5'11 7/8", 186 pounds (he was 197 at his pro day, which is where he ran the poor agility drills), 31 7/8" arms, 4.33 40, 1.57 10, 34" VJ, 126" BJ, 4.37 SS (pro day), 7.38 3C (pro day)

Wilson: 5' 11 3/4", 183 pounds, 32" arms, 4.38 40, 1.49 10 (significant difference here), 36" VJ, 123" BJ, 4.36 SS

Not sure why Gray didn't do the agility drills at the combine when he was weighing 11 pounds less (seems like he deliberately lost weight to run faster). He couldn't have done much worse than he did at his pro day.

[CrimsonCrew]

Interesting to note that the Niners drafted two guys in Gray and Drake Jackson who gained pretty significant weight between the combine and their pro day. Gray put on 11 pounds, a 6% increase. Jackson put on 19 pounds, a 7.5% increase. I don't want to draw conclusions based on such a small sample size, but given both players' struggles as rookies, this could be connected.

I noted - as did beat writers, etc. - that Jackson appeared to put on some bad weight prior to the draft. Now, he still ran a very good shuttle and three-cone at the heavier weight, unlike Gray who was awful (Jackson's numbers at 273 were better than Gray's at 197), but it was pretty clear he had let himself go a little bit. Hopefully he's spending the offseason getting into legit game shape.

And again, perhaps the weirdest part is that neither guy ran the agility drills at their lower weight, but then did run them at their pro days. Just an odd choice.

[CrimsonCrew]

Grant Cohn and Larry Krueger think the Conley signing could be an indication that they're seriously considering offers for Aiyuk. It's an interesting proposition, and it's certainly possible. Don't see Conley as necessarily impacting that given reduced production over the past couple years, but it's at least possible.

[Samurai]

Grant Cohn and Larry Krueger think the Conley signing could be an indication that they're seriously considering offers for Aiyuk. It's an interesting proposition, and it's certainly possible. Don't see Conley as necessarily impacting that given reduced production over the past couple years, but it's at least possible.

I like Aiyuk and wouldn't want to see him traded unless a drunk GM made a ridiculous offer. But as usual, this will likely come down to a matter of $$. Lynch has said they will pick up Aiyuk's fifth year option keeping him under team control through 2024 but at a cost of over $14M. Deebo in 2024 will be over $20M. There may not be enough pennies in the piggy bank to keep both. I would fully expect us to grab another WR in the draft that can be developed.

[CrimsonCrew]

Grant Cohn and Larry Krueger think the Conley signing could be an indication that they're seriously considering offers for Aiyuk. It's an interesting proposition, and it's certainly possible. Don't see Conley as necessarily impacting that given reduced production over the past couple years, but it's at least possible.

I like Aiyuk and wouldn't want to see him traded unless a drunk GM made a ridiculous offer. But as usual, this will likely come down to a matter of $$. Lynch has said they will pick up Aiyuk's fifth year option keeping him under team control through 2024 but at a cost of over $14M. Deebo in 2024 will be over $20M. There may not be enough pennies in the piggy bank to keep both. I would fully expect us to grab another WR in the draft that can be developed.

They could almost certainly lower Aiyuk's 2024 pricetag by extending him. It would be expensive, but with QBs on rookie contracts, viable to keep both in 2024. I would be reluctant to trade Aiyuk at this stage, given what we saw from Deebo last year and historical struggles with weight. Deebo was still really good last year, but didn't play at a level that would justify his contract in the later years. We can get out of Deebo's contract - for big dead money, but also pretty big savings - after 2024. I'd like to keep some pressure on Deebo to perform this year.

[thesack12]

I wouldn't be shocked if they traded Aiyuk. I wouldn't be happy about it either.

As mentioned cap reasons would be the most likely reasoning behind a trade. However, we can't forget that Kyle had Aiyuk in his doghouse for long stretch last season. While we still aren't sure on why Brandon got housed and it does seem like whatever it was has been resolved and put to bed. But to me Kyle seems like the type that won't easily let go of things like that. IDK, I'm probably just reading in between the lines a little too much, but the thought did cross my mind.

Due for an extension, I would think the best Aiyuk would fetch would be something like a late 2nd this year and a conditional 5th next year. But supposedly this isn't a great draft for WR's so maybe some team offers up a bigger package.

Whatever Aiyuk's status is moving forward, I don't think the Chris Conley signing has any bearing on it. Conley is purely a depth piece. He's had low production while playing on terrible teams for the past 4 seasons, and he's already on the wrong side of 30. There's probably a reason why he was available this late in free agency. They also sure didn't seem to specifically target him. They had Laquon Treadwell in for a workout a couple days before bringing in Conley for a looksie. So it seems like a throw something at the wall and see if it sticks type of signing, than a precursor to a bigger move involving a much more important player.

I don't dislike the Conley signing, as he came cheap and I think he could become a viable depth guy. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if Conley didn't survive final cuts. Especially if the 9ers draft a WR.

[arich35]

From a pure WR stand point I would rather trade Deebo than Aiyuk. But I understand the versatility Deebo offers that would be hard to replace but with CMC on this team I think it would be easier to trade Deebo

[Samurai]

Grant Cohn and Larry Krueger think the Conley signing could be an indication that they're seriously considering offers for Aiyuk. It's an interesting proposition, and it's certainly possible. Don't see Conley as necessarily impacting that given reduced production over the past couple years, but it's at least possible.

I don't see Conley as a 1A or 1B type receiver like Aiyuk. He is a depth piece that could snag that #5 WR role away from Gray (behind Deebo, Aiyuk, Jennings and Ray Ray) who could come in for a play or two to stretch the field. Any by stretching the field, it isn't necessarily as the guy you throw to just someone to keep the safety from stuffing the run box or opening up underneath routes for Deebo, Kittle, or CMC. Plus he's another body who can play Special Teams. To me, that doesn't sound like someone that Lynch/Shanahan will swap out Aiyuk for.

[CrimsonCrew]

I wouldn't be shocked if they traded Aiyuk. I wouldn't be happy about it either.

As mentioned cap reasons would be the most likely reasoning behind a trade. However, we can't forget that Kyle had Aiyuk in his doghouse for long stretch last season. While we still aren't sure on why Brandon got housed and it does seem like whatever it was has been resolved and put to bed. But to me Kyle seems like the type that won't easily let go of things like that. IDK, I'm probably just reading in between the lines a little too much, but the thought did cross my mind.

Due for an extension, I would think the best Aiyuk would fetch would be something like a late 2nd this year and a conditional 5th next year. But supposedly this isn't a great draft for WR's so maybe some team offers up a bigger package.

Whatever Aiyuk's status is moving forward, I don't think the Chris Conley signing has any bearing on it. Conley is purely a depth piece. He's had low production while playing on terrible teams for the past 4 seasons, and he's already on the wrong side of 30. There's probably a reason why he was available this late in free agency. They also sure didn't seem to specifically target him. They had Laquon Treadwell in for a workout a couple days before bringing in Conley for a looksie. So it seems like a throw something at the wall and see if it sticks type of signing, than a precursor to a bigger move involving a much more important player.

I don't dislike the Conley signing, as he came cheap and I think he could become a viable depth guy. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if Conley didn't survive final cuts. Especially if the 9ers draft a WR.

Yeah, Aiyuk could certainly be a cap casualty. At some point, we've got to stop paying these guys top-of-market deals. Though the FO has been pretty ruthless about keeping the top guys and filling out the rest of the roster with rookie contracts and cheap depth. It seems like an effective way to fill out a roster, especially with cheap QBs, but I'm not sure how much longer it's sustainable even with cheap QBs.

But it's also feasible while we still have the cheap QBs to fit him onto the squad. Particularly if we move Lance before next season. I like Aiyuk. He is a good receiver who would likely look even better on a team that fed him the ball more. As was said above, I think he's a more complete pure WR than Deebo, though Deebo's flexibility is really unique. At the very least, I'd try to keep him this year. I don't think it would adversely impact his trade value all that much - teams will still give up premium picks for the privilege of re-signing an impact player - and it would not only help the team this year, but pressure Deebo to get into camp and grind a bit.

Agreed that it's hard to see Conley affecting this decision much at all. I was just repeating something I heard. They might be filling out the WR room in general a bit more in anticipation of entertaining Aiyuk trade offers, but it would be crazy to in any way rely on a guy like Conley to be a starter. But he's a guy who has been a solid #2 in the not-too-distant past, and we need some more camp bodies anyway.

Lots of interesting topics coming up these days, but almost certainly it will be a pretty quiet draft for the Niners. With the caveat that I expect the team to trade up several times, likely for guys who are perceived as pretty significant reaches....

[CrimsonCrew]

I meant to mention this a week or two ago, but I think I did not. Apologies if I'm repeating myself. Lynch said some time ago that he really liked the draft process this year because they're kind of starting from the back and working their way up with no early picks. Did not give me a great feeling. My general theory on their drafting under Lynch has been that he and Kyle run the show in the early rounds before deferring more and more to the scouting team and position coaches.

It will not shock anyone on this board, but their hit rate in the later rounds is remarkable, while their hit rate in the first three rounds is frankly pretty shaky. They've had an awful lot of misses in the early rounds (1: S. Thomas, Foster, arguably McGlinchey, Kinlaw, arguably Lance; 2: arguably Witherspoon, Pettis; 3: Beathard, Moore, Hurd, Sermon, A. Thomas, jury still out on Davis-Price and Gray). My concern is that there will be less deferring to the scouting department this year, which could be bad news. We'll see. One more interesting thing to watch.

[CrimsonCrew]

I was listening to the PFF NFL podcast this morning (from yesterday), and the guys were saying that this draft is interesting in that, at a lot of positions, they like some guys at the top, really don't like many guys in the late-first through mid-third range, and then like a lot of guys from the third through sixth or so. Obviously the guys in those later rounds are guys with intriguing traits but pretty big questions, but it did make me feel like this draft sets up pretty well for the Niners to find some contributors. Probably not much for 2023 (hoping some of last year's picks can pick up the slack there), but to build out team depth going forward.