2023 NBA Draft Thread

[Braggins]

It legit would be the same for most of the top 10 guys.
Anthony Black averaged 12.8 ppg in 34 mins for an Arkansas team that scored 74 ppg
The Ignite averaged 108.8 ppg

You honestly don't think Nick Smith Jr or Black are averaging more ppg if given Scoots mins for the ignite?

Well, I think Nick Smith Jr is straight up bad, so I think he would struggle to even get on the court in the GLeague. My rankings currently go to 29 and Nick Smith is ranked 29th.

As for AB, I don't really know how to project what a player would average in the GLeague vs the SEC if they were the same exact age in both scenarios. Saying a guy averaged X stats in the NCAA then averaged higher stats in the GLeague at a later time is hard to really assess because that is also affected by a player improving/developing over time in addition to the changes in pace and playstyle between the two leagues.

Like, if you duplicated Anthony Black and had one version play the GLeague this season and one play in the SEC, I don't really know what would happen. I don't know how to predict what kind of minutes Black would have gotten on the Ignite this season or what his exact role would have been. If I had to guess I would probably just say something in the ballpark of what Dyson Daniels averaged.

Ive said this before, but Scoot arguably had the best season of any GLeague Ignite prospect so far. Any argument that his production was terrible or a red flag or whatever has to take into account how he actually compares to previous Ignite guys that were playing in similar circumstances in what would have been their first post high-school year. Jalen Greens stats look even worse when you do those *look at random guy who isn't that good but averaged similar numbers at some point in the GLeague* kind of comparisons. None of the previous Ignite guys stats look very good in these comparisons and all of them that I have been able to find impact metrics for had terrible numbers there too that were worse than Scoots.

Leonard Miller is projected to go 26th, if you need further proof that gleague stats are meaningless and putting up numbers is easy.

Here are his per 36 numbers, he is like 2 months older than Scoot.
20.5 PTS 12.3 REB 1.9 AST 1.0 BLK 1.2 STL

By peoples broken math that scoring is harder in the Gleague than in college, Miller probably is putting up 25 ppg in college? LOL.

I'm actually pretty intrigued by Leonard Miller and currently have him in my top 20! I haven't posted any rankings on here past 14 because I haven't seen games for a lot of the guys outside lottery range and haven't done as much research on them. I currently have Leonard Miller 16th, but its a low confidence ranking at this point.

[JMAC3]

It legit would be the same for most of the top 10 guys.
Anthony Black averaged 12.8 ppg in 34 mins for an Arkansas team that scored 74 ppg
The Ignite averaged 108.8 ppg

You honestly don't think Nick Smith Jr or Black are averaging more ppg if given Scoots mins for the ignite?

Well, I think Nick Smith Jr is straight up bad, so I think he would struggle to even get on the court in the GLeague.

As for AB, I don't really know how to project what a player would average in the GLeague vs the SEC if they were the same exact age in both scenarios. Saying a guy averaged X stats in the NCAA then averaged higher stats in the GLeague at a later time is hard to really assess because that is also effected by a player improving/developing over time in addition to the changes in pace and playstyle between the two leagues.

Like, if you duplicated Anthony Black and had one version play the GLeague this season and one play in the SEC, I don't really know what would happen. I don't know how to predict what kind of minutes Black would have gotten on the Ignite this season or what his exact role would have been. If I had to guess I would probably just say something in the ballpark of what Dyson Daniels averaged.

Ive said this before, but Scoot arguably had the best season of any GLeague Ignite prospect so far. Any argument that his production was terrible or a red flag or whatever has to take into account how he actually compares to previous Ignite guys that were playing in similar circumstances in what would have been their first post high-school year. Jalen Greens stats look even worse when you do those *look at random guy who isn't that good but averaged similar numbers at some point in the GLeague* kind of comparisons. None of the previous Ignite guys stats look very good in these comparisons and all of them that I have been able to find impact metrics for had terrible numbers there too that were worse than Scoots.

Leonard Miller is projected to go 26th, if you need further proof that gleague stats are meaningless and putting up numbers is easy.

Here are his per 36 numbers, he is like 2 months older than Scoot.
20.5 PTS 12.3 REB 1.9 AST 1.0 BLK 1.2 STL

By peoples broken math that scoring is harder in the Gleague than in college, Miller probably is putting up 25 ppg in college? LOL.

I'm actually pretty intrigued by Leonard Miller and currently have him in my top 20! I haven't posted any rankings on here past 14 because I haven't seen games for a lot of the guys outside lottery range and haven't done as much research on them. I currently have Leonard Miller 16th, but its a low confidence ranking at this point.

Yeah I think you are making it too complicated assuming guys improve that much over 6 months from the end of the college year to the start of the gleague season. Kai Jones doubled his scoring from a sophomore in college to the Gleague. You honestly think he improved that much over 6 months?

If you struggle to do well in the gleague as a first-round prospect its rare and a huge RedFlag.

Bryce McGowens dropped 32 points in his gleague debut as a 2nd rounder, he had another game where he scored 37 points on 13/18 shooting.

We aren't talking about one of scenarios where the argument can be "maybe he just improved". We are talking the vast majority of guys make the Gleague look like a cakewalk.

I don't have the exact numbers, but if I ran an analysis my gut says that over 80% of first round picks put up higher counting stats in their first year in the Gleague then they did their last year in college. I have probably looked at 150 guys to make this point and its alarming how often it pans out.

[Braggins]

Leonard Miller is having an interesting season. Something feels a bit weird/off about the way he moves, but hes long and pretty athletic.

Leonard Miller ~ SF/PF ~ 6'10" 210
GLeague Ignite ~ 11/26/2003 (19.6)
per75 poss: 20.3 pts ~ 12.2 reb ~ 2.0 ast ~ 1.2 stl ~ 0.9 blk ~ 2.3 tov ~ 3.4 pf
59.2% 2pt(12.1) ~ 30.4% 3pt(2.9) ~ 79.2% ft(2.5*) ~ 63.2% ts
108.3 ORtg ~ 113.8 DRtg ~ -6.0 bpm ~ 22.2% usg ~ 0.92 ast/tov
* ~ GLeague shoot 1 ft worth 2 pts until last 2 minutes

Scoot Henderson ~ PG ~ 6'2" 195
GLeague Ignite ~ 2/3/2004 (19.4)
per75 poss: 20.6 pts ~ 5.9 reb ~ 7.7 ast ~ 1.4 stl ~ 0.5 blk ~ 3.9 tov ~ 3.7 pf
47.2% 2pt(14.1) ~ 32.4% 3pt(3.2) ~ 75.0% ft(3.4*) ~ 55.0% ts
114.4 ORtg ~ 115.8 DRtg ~ -1.8 bpm ~ 27.7% usg ~ 1.98 ast/tov
* ~ GLeague shoot 1 ft worth 2 pts until last 2 minutes

Watch on YouTube

[British_Buzz]

Interesting discussion. It's counter intuitive, but I agree it's easier to put up higher scoring games in the G-League than SEC while also admitting the level of play in the G-League is much higher.

- The top NCAA team in the country averaged 77 possessions per game, the G-League is somewhere between 90-105 on avaerage.
- The increased shooting ability in the G-League means the spacing is better. For any "Featured" guy on offense they will have more space, all the G-League guys get a pretty good runway for being featured.

I do think one of the big challenges Scoot faced this year which he would have also faced in College, but to a lesser extent, is opposing teams focusing their entire defense on him. G-League players are generally better at carrying out and executing a scheme, so making everyone but Scoot beat them. In College coaches try to do the same thing, but the players make way more schematic mistakes.

[Diop]

I'm not an expert on the Twins, so take this with a grain of salt, but it seems like Ausar is the better defender. Amen has generally been more of the on-ball creator of the two, while Ausar plays more off-ball and seemed to focus a bit more on defense. Ausar also had slightly better per possession rebound, steal, and block rates, this season. I'm not sure how much of a gap there really is. Its hard to conclude much from OTE games.

Tools wise I think they are similar. Amen guards point guard more frequently and is more engaged in on ball stuff defensively navigating screens and stifling penetration. Whereas Ausar more freely roams off the ball for blocks, reading passing lanes and typically closer to the basket when shots go up.

Athletically I think they present similar positives just depends on the role you want to deploy them in. Amen averaging 1 block per 36 as a point guard is pretty unheard of for example.

Based on that then I'd think Amen, from a defensive standpoint, fills bigger need. We need that POA defender so Melo can roam off ball. Although, I'm sure Ausar would push Melo off ball defensively as well, even if Ausar excels off ball.

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The cute part is you think the draft pick is going to play next to ball instead of Rozier.

I honestly expect our starting back court to remain the same

[LofJ]

Watch on YouTube

If we fall back in the draft Cason Wallace would a great pick. Kentucky guards always look better in the NBA too.

[SWedd523]

I do too. They're going to use injuries as an excuse to just run things back

[JMAC3]

Leonard Miller is having an interesting season. Something feels a bit weird/off about the way he moves, but hes long and pretty athletic.

Leonard Miller ~ SF/PF ~ 6'10" 210
GLeague Ignite ~ 11/26/2003 (19.6)
per75 poss: 20.3 pts ~ 12.2 reb ~ 2.0 ast ~ 1.2 stl ~ 0.9 blk ~ 2.3 tov ~ 3.4 pf
59.2% 2pt(12.1) ~ 30.4% 3pt(2.9) ~ 79.2% ft(2.5*) ~ 63.2% ts
108.3 ORtg ~ 113.8 DRtg ~ -6.0 bpm ~ 22.2% usg ~ 0.92 ast/tov
* ~ GLeague shoot 1 ft worth 2 pts until last 2 minutes

Scoot Henderson ~ PG ~ 6'2" 195
GLeague Ignite ~ 2/3/2004 (19.4)
per75 poss: 20.6 pts ~ 5.9 reb ~ 7.7 ast ~ 1.4 stl ~ 0.5 blk ~ 3.9 tov ~ 3.7 pf
47.2% 2pt(14.1) ~ 32.4% 3pt(3.2) ~ 75.0% ft(3.4*) ~ 55.0% ts
114.4 ORtg ~ 115.8 DRtg ~ -1.8 bpm ~ 27.7% usg ~ 1.98 ast/tov
* ~ GLeague shoot 1 ft worth 2 pts until last 2 minutes

Watch on YouTube

Yeah this makes no sense for the Scoot truthers. Who are in awe of his production in the gleague at such a young age that he is a lock for a top 2 pick. Then you have Miller who was arguably just as productive at the same age but he isn't a lottery pick?

The Gleague competition enthusiasts should be all over Miller as by their logic it's easier to score in college. His production would be rivaling Brandon Miller but he is a year younger. I guess we can pick and choose when age and stats matter in the Gleague.

[LofJ]

I do too. They're going to use injuries as an excuse to just run things back

They probably would do that if it were an option, but they can't. There are 10 players under contract next season, 5 draft picks, and Bridges/PJ/DSJ/Oubre are all free agents. There aren't enough minutes to develop the guys on rookie contracts already on the team, much less the guys coming in next season.

I know there's no way we'll use all 5 picks, but it's a safe bet at least 2 will be on the 15 man roster next year. If we bring back Bridges, PJ, and DSJ as well we're already at 15. A consolation trade pretty much has to happen.

[SWedd523]

I'm referring to them keeping a Melo/Rozier pairing

[LofJ]

I'm referring to them keeping a Melo/Rozier pairing

It's what I'm expecting as well, the only way that may change is if we end up with Scoot Henderson. The organization views him as our veteran leader.

[JDR720]

Scoot hasn't spent enough time in the G-League.

But seriously, I think we'll trade at least 3 of those draft picks.

[bravor]

Bilal Coulibaly will declare for the 2023 draft contrary of what i was thinking (and hoping). If he remains a late 1st project, it should be mandatory for the Hornets to land him. Almost perfect 3D potential (knowing his offense is expanding and he is only 18, playing significant minutes in a pro league).

[JMAC3]

Scoot hasn't spent enough time in the G-League.

But seriously, I think we'll trade at least 3 of those draft picks.

I am just praying we don't land the #2 pick.

[LofJ]

Read on Twitter

I would also like to be a wizard when I grow up.

[SWedd523]

Yer a wizard, Harry

[JDR720]

Scoot hasn't spent enough time in the G-League.

But seriously, I think we'll trade at least 3 of those draft picks.

I am just praying we don't land the #2 pick.

#6 pick here we come.

[LofJ]

Tankathon is trying to make the inevitable disappointment hit harder:

Read on Twitter

[luciano-davidwesley]

Scoot hasn't spent enough time in the G-League.

But seriously, I think we'll trade at least 3 of those draft picks.

Hopefully we kick the can down the road with them a year or two or trade up. Or package them with Rozier to get off him.

Don't be surprised if MJ sells one or two seconds though

[amcoolio]

Why not trade Rozier or SnT Washington to a non-cap space team like Portland and get both twins.

Admittedly, I haven't done any research yet on this draft, but I feel like Clifford won't play whoever we select anyway so why should I care, you know?