2023 NFL Draft Thread - Round 1 Thursday 7:00 PM

[sdn40]

Would you take Chase in the first round? Adrian Peterson? LaDainian Tomlinson? Calvin Johnson?

Would you take Reggie White ? Ed Reed ? Derrick Brooks ?
And until I can call you an idiot to keep the playing field level, don't quote my posts.

Of course.

And call me an idiot all you want. The hell do I care?

Like Ron Swanson just said, if you wouldn't take a guy who you consider a potential HOF talent just because you have some rule about positions, that's idiotic.

Such a big man you are. I would get banned. You won't.

[Kerb Hohl]

There's some people here who would defend passing on Adrian Peterson and Tony Gonzales because of a stubborn list of position rules they've created for themselves and it's baffling. If you wanna think that Bijan is just gonna be another Trent Richardson then that's your prerogative. I've personally maintained that I would almost never spend a 1st round pick on a Mike linebacker, but would I pass on a guy I view as a Ray Lewis, Luke Kuechly, or Patrick Willis caliber prospect just to take the 5th best tackle prospect? Of course not, that's **** idiotic.

If you could guarentee we are getting one of those players sure, pretending we are able to judge with such certainty that a player will be a HOFer seems very arrogant though.

AJ Hawk and Leonard Fournette say hello at these positions.

You better be damn sure they are that good.

[MickeyDavis]

Current betting odds on who will be our first pick (not necessarily first ROUND pick, if he trade out of the first round it's whoever we take first). Position is determined by the NFL Network live broadcast

WR +235
DL +250
OL +250
TE +320
DB +750
LB +3300
QB +8000
RB +8000

Trying to figure out a couple of bets to make it more interesting.

24 hours of betting has changed it up

TE +175
OL +250
DL +300
WR +300
DB +800
LB +3300
QB +8000
RB +8000

I won't have a chance to make any bets until early next week.

[MickeyDavis]

Don't take bait from anyone guys, we're too close to the draft, just ignore if necessary.

[sdn40]

You couldn't help yourself I guess. Again. Find another board. MD

[Ron Swanson]

There's some people here who would defend passing on Adrian Peterson and Tony Gonzales because of a stubborn list of position rules they've created for themselves and it's baffling. If you wanna think that Bijan is just gonna be another Trent Richardson then that's your prerogative. I've personally maintained that I would almost never spend a 1st round pick on a Mike linebacker, but would I pass on a guy I view as a Ray Lewis, Luke Kuechly, or Patrick Willis caliber prospect just to take the 5th best tackle prospect? Of course not, that's **** idiotic.

If you could guarentee we are getting one of those players sure, pretending we are able to judge with such certainty that a player will be a HOFer seems very arrogant though.

Is that what I said?

[MVP2110]

There's some people here who would defend passing on Adrian Peterson and Tony Gonzales because of a stubborn list of position rules they've created for themselves and it's baffling. If you wanna think that Bijan is just gonna be another Trent Richardson then that's your prerogative. I've personally maintained that I would almost never spend a 1st round pick on a Mike linebacker, but would I pass on a guy I view as a Ray Lewis, Luke Kuechly, or Patrick Willis caliber prospect just to take the 5th best tackle prospect? Of course not, that's **** idiotic.

If you could guarentee we are getting one of those players sure, pretending we are able to judge with such certainty that a player will be a HOFer seems very arrogant though.

Is that what I said?

"If you wanna think that Bijan is just gonna be another Trent Richardson then that's your prerogative" while also invoking Adrian Peterson in the same paragraph, so yes, that's what you seemed to imply

There is a large difference between Adrian Peterson & Trent Richardson. If you told me Bijan would turn into the next Zeke, Saquon, Fournette, Melvin Gordon, etc then yes I'm passing on him pretty easily at 15

[Kerb Hohl]

There's some people here who would defend passing on Adrian Peterson and Tony Gonzales because of a stubborn list of position rules they've created for themselves and it's baffling. If you wanna think that Bijan is just gonna be another Trent Richardson then that's your prerogative. I've personally maintained that I would almost never spend a 1st round pick on a Mike linebacker, but would I pass on a guy I view as a Ray Lewis, Luke Kuechly, or Patrick Willis caliber prospect just to take the 5th best tackle prospect? Of course not, that's **** idiotic.

If you could guarentee we are getting one of those players sure, pretending we are able to judge with such certainty that a player will be a HOFer seems very arrogant though.

Is that what I said?

Kind of. Yeah.

You're saying you'd draft a generational NFL player at those positions early in the draft. The problem is that you have to be certain that you're drafting Adrian Peterson and not Fournette or Trent Richardson. Kind of using the benefit of hindsight with it.

Other teams could say they won't draft a RB or ILB early because they're willing to risk missing out on Ray Lewis or Patrick Willis or AP for the 50 other guys that weren't Ray Lewis, Patrick Willis, or AP.

In general I don't really have an opinion on this either way but the hit rate + importance of those positions is just so low that some probably see it as not worth the effort.

[Ron Swanson]

The idea that you can guarantee any player at any position is gonna be a Hall of Famer is obviously ludicrous. That's not being implied just because I used some examples who were Hall of Famers.

This isn't really that complicated for anyone who's willing to hop off their weirdly strict "I would never pick position X in the first round" mantra. Case in point, I was pounding the table for the Packers to draft Mark Ingram instead of Derrek Sherrod in 2011. You're evaluating players, not positions.

[MVP2110]

The idea that you can guarantee any player at any position is gonna be a Hall of Famer is obviously ludicrous. That's not being implied just because I used some examples who were Hall of Famers.

This isn't really that complicated for anyone who's willing to hop off their weirdly strict "I would never pick position X in the first round" mantra. Case in point, I was pounding the table for the Packers to draft Mark Ingram instead of Derrek Sherrod in 2011. You're evaluating players, not positions.

But it has been proven that certain positions provide more or less than value than others, and that specific positions have a higher hit rate than others late in the draft. Focusing premium resources on non premium positions that can be filled later is a big gamble and you basically have to be sure you're going to nab a sure fire star. For example an average OT is much more valuable than a good running back. To draft a player at a less valuable position you have to be supremely confident that that player won't just be good, that he'll be great

[Kerb Hohl]

The idea that you can guarantee any player at any position is gonna be a Hall of Famer is obviously ludicrous. That's not being implied just because I used some examples who were Hall of Famers.

This isn't really that complicated for anyone who's willing to hop off their weirdly strict "I would never pick position X in the first round" mantra. Case in point, I was pounding the table for the Packers to draft Mark Ingram instead of Derrek Sherrod in 2011. You're evaluating players, not positions.

Yeah, of course you can't guarantee it.

But for somebody to take a RB top 10 or 20 or whatever, you might need that guarantee.

If I have a 5% chance that I'm getting a HOF guy at a less important postion (RB, TE, ILB, maybe S) - is it worth the risk? Everyone knows their evaluations aren't perfect so if you're wrong about Bijan Robinson, you've just grabbed a running back that you could probably replace with a late round pick or somebody off of waivers and passed up on an opportunity to grab a difference-making pass rusher or something. Even if Bijan Robinson is a Hall of Famer, he may have less impact than a Pro Bowl pass rusher.

That's why these teams/fans have the rules. I don't really agree/disagree but the logic is there.

[Ron Swanson]

The idea that you can guarantee any player at any position is gonna be a Hall of Famer is obviously ludicrous. That's not being implied just because I used some examples who were Hall of Famers.

This isn't really that complicated for anyone who's willing to hop off their weirdly strict "I would never pick position X in the first round" mantra. Case in point, I was pounding the table for the Packers to draft Mark Ingram instead of Derrek Sherrod in 2011. You're evaluating players, not positions.

To draft a player at a less valuable position you have to be supremely confident that that player won't just be good, that he'll be great

This is literally all we've been saying.

[MVP2110]

The idea that you can guarantee any player at any position is gonna be a Hall of Famer is obviously ludicrous. That's not being implied just because I used some examples who were Hall of Famers.

This isn't really that complicated for anyone who's willing to hop off their weirdly strict "I would never pick position X in the first round" mantra. Case in point, I was pounding the table for the Packers to draft Mark Ingram instead of Derrek Sherrod in 2011. You're evaluating players, not positions.

To draft a player at a less valuable position you have to be supremely confident that that player won't just be good, that he'll be great

This is literally all we've been saying.

What % chance do you give Bijan of making the HOF? Cause I'd put it quite a bit less than 50%

[Kerb Hohl]

The idea that you can guarantee any player at any position is gonna be a Hall of Famer is obviously ludicrous. That's not being implied just because I used some examples who were Hall of Famers.

This isn't really that complicated for anyone who's willing to hop off their weirdly strict "I would never pick position X in the first round" mantra. Case in point, I was pounding the table for the Packers to draft Mark Ingram instead of Derrek Sherrod in 2011. You're evaluating players, not positions.

To draft a player at a less valuable position you have to be supremely confident that that player won't just be good, that he'll be great

This is literally all we've been saying.

But you're getting back to the guarantee thing.

A lot of draft rooms have been "supremely confident" in the RBs drafted in the first round in the past few decades and only a select few have made the impact that even a decent LT or OLB would give. History tells us that even if you're "supremely confident" you will be wrong pretty often and it's simply not worth it in most people's minds.

[MVP2110]

Let's use Zeke as an example. Solid RB, probably in the top 10 during his prime. But he ended up being a terrible pick. He went directly ahead of Jalen Ramsey, Ronnie Stanley, & DeForest Buckner, all 3 of whom have provided considerably more value than what Zeke did, and on top of that just a few years later they drafted Tony Pollard in the 4th who is arguably better than Zeke if not atleast very similar.

[Ron Swanson]

To draft a player at a less valuable position you have to be supremely confident that that player won't just be good, that he'll be great

This is literally all we've been saying.

What % chance do you give Bijan of making the HOF? Cause I'd put it quite a bit less than 50%

I don't care if he makes the Hall of Fame. If I think he's like, an All-Pro level dual-threat RB for 4-5 years, then completely falls out of the league due to mileage and injuries, then yeah, I'd still pick him in the 1st round unless there's somebody else at our pick who I like more (JSN, Van Ness, Paris Johnson).

[MVP2110]

This is literally all we've been saying.

What % chance do you give Bijan of making the HOF? Cause I'd put it quite a bit less than 50%

I don't care if he makes the Hall of Fame. If I think he's like, an All-Pro level dual-threat RB for 4-5 years, then completely falls out of the league due to mileage and injuries, then yeah, I'd still pick him in the 1st round unless there's somebody else at our pick who I like more (JSN, Van Ness, Paris Johnson).

What would be the point of the Packers taking a All Pro RB who will only last 4-5 years when they likely aren't contending for atleast the next 2 seasons?

And even with that, what chance do you put on Bijan becoming an all pro RB at all let alone multiple times?

[ReasonablySober]

Not gonna speak for Ron but if people are calling Robinson a better prospect than Barkley I’d put his chances of being a All Pro higher than anyone in this class.

[MVP2110]

Not gonna speak for Ron but if people are calling Robinson a better prospect than Barkley I’d put his chances of being a All Pro higher than anyone in this class.

Worth noting Barkley has never been an all pro

[Kerb Hohl]

Not gonna speak for Ron but if people are calling Robinson a better prospect than Barkley I’d put his chances of being a All Pro higher than anyone in this class.

Barkley, while I think if in a better situation might've had a better first few years (plus the injuries, of course)...

In the picks not far after Barkley went Denzel Ward, Bradley Chubb, Quentin Nelson, Josh Allen, Vita Vea, Daron Payne. Also in the less important position category but still there were Roquan Smith and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Further back in the first round (a stretch, but you could've traded back) there was Lamar Jackson, Jaire Alexander, Tremaine Edmunds.