2023 NFL Draft Thread - Round 1 Thursday 7:00 PM

[ReasonablySober]

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[M-C-G]

Not gonna speak for Ron but if people are calling Robinson a better prospect than Barkley I’d put his chances of being a All Pro higher than anyone in this class.

Worth noting Barkley has never been an all pro

All pro aside, I think if you told me I was getting a player comparable to Saquan he is worth the pick. 2000 yards, 15 TD, 91 catches his rookie year. I think the injuries really set him back for a few seasons and people forget how damn good he was.

I understand the argument that RB are less shelf life than other positions, but yeah if we can add a 2k 15TD player with the 15th pick, I think we better take that swing, because if Love and this defense are average, I think you have a team that could make some noise in the playoffs.

[Ron Swanson]

What percentage would we put on any one of the likely available edge rushers even being a Pro Bowler (Van Ness, Murphy, Smith, etc.)? I'm guessing it's not very high, and I like a bunch of those guys. Again, this isn't complicated. If I think a guy's gonna be outlier special, then I'm not passing over him just for the sake of a "premium position" corner or tackle whose potential I feel is just a "solid" 6-7 year NFL career guy.

We can factor in positional value without being dogmatic about it.

[MVP2110]

What percentage would we put on any one of the likely available edge rushers even being a Pro Bowler (Van Ness, Murphy, Smith, etc.)? I'm guessing it's not very high, and I like a bunch of those guys. Again, this isn't complicated. If I think a guy's gonna be outlier special, then I'm not passing over him just for the sake of a "premium position" corner or tackle whose potential I feel is just a "solid" 6-7 year NFL career guy.

We can factor in positional value without being dogmatic about it.

Edge guys don't have to be all pro level to provide value like RBs do.

[MVP2110]

Not gonna speak for Ron but if people are calling Robinson a better prospect than Barkley I’d put his chances of being a All Pro higher than anyone in this class.

Worth noting Barkley has never been an all pro

All pro aside, I think if you told me I was getting a player comparable to Saquan he is worth the pick. 2000 yards, 15 TD, 91 catches his rookie year. I think the injuries really set him back for a few seasons and people forget how damn good he was.

I understand the argument that RB are less shelf life than other positions, but yeah if we can add a 2k 15TD player with the 15th pick, I think we better take that swing, because if Love and this defense are average, I think you have a team that could make some noise in the playoffs.

As Herb pointed out there were several more impactful players taken directly after Saquon so I'm not sure how great of an example he is. And even so I don't understand how for the Packers specifically we would be interested in Bijan with Jones & Dillon here. We aren't going to be a superbowl contender next year regardless so why would we want to draft a position with a short shelf life for a team that isn't competing for a title?

[Ron Swanson]

[M-C-G]

Way too many takes spinning out of control here. If we can all agree that QB is the most important position, than is it better to strike out on Baker Mayfield, Josh Rose, Sam Darnold than take a Barkley? Of course you wouldn't, but that is why it doesn't make sense to do too much of the revisionist stuff. I'm having TJ Watt and Kevin King PTSD here.

[MVP2110]

Just published on NFL.com:

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I went back to see his list from 3 years ago and see how it's turned out.

Spoiler alert, not great

https://www.nfl.com/news/2020-nfl-draft-all-pros-pro-bowlers-and-red-stars-in-this-class-0ap3000001110369

[MVP2110]

Way too many takes spinning out of control here. If we can all agree that QB is the most important position, than is it better to strike out on Baker Mayfield, Josh Rose, Sam Darnold than take a Barkley? Of course you wouldn't, but that is why it doesn't make sense to do too much of the revisionist stuff. I'm having TJ Watt and Kevin King PTSD here.

Of course it is better to take a good player than a bad player. Let me ask you this, when was the last time a team took an r1 RB and it was indisputably the best pick they could have made?

[Ron Swanson]

Ask Oakland (Josh Jacobs), Pittsburgh (Najee Harris), and Jacksonville (Etienne) if they're happy with picking a RB in the first round each of the last 3 drafts.

[MVP2110]

Ask Oakland (Josh Jacobs), Pittsburgh (Najee Harris), and Jacksonville (Etienne) if they're happy with picking a RB in the first round each of the last 3 drafts.

I mean I'd happily take Rosseau, Newsome, Holland, Tyson Campbell, or Landon Dickerson over Harris & Etienne in the 21 class and they were picked only a handful of picks later. For GBs purposed I would absolutely not trade Eric Stokes for Najee or Etienne right now.

As for Jacobs easily give me Montez Sweat over him, Hollywood Brown, Jawaan Taylor and likely Kaleb McGary as well, and it goes without saying on Deebo.

[Ron Swanson]

Ask Oakland (Josh Jacobs), Pittsburgh (Najee Harris), and Jacksonville (Etienne) if they're happy with picking a RB in the first round each of the last 3 drafts.

I mean I'd happily take Rosseau, Newsome, Holland, or Tyson Campbell over Harris & Etienne in the 21 class and they were picked only a handful of picks later. For GBs purposed I would absolutely not trade Eric Stokes for Najee or Etienne right now.

As for Jacobs easily give me Montez Sweat over him and likely Kaleb McGary as well, and it goes without saying on Deebo.

So you basically just don't believe that an All-Pro level RB brings much of anything to modern NFL offenses then? Because this is a pretty wild take. At least this all makes sense now.

[MVP2110]

Ask Oakland (Josh Jacobs), Pittsburgh (Najee Harris), and Jacksonville (Etienne) if they're happy with picking a RB in the first round each of the last 3 drafts.

I mean I'd happily take Rosseau, Newsome, Holland, or Tyson Campbell over Harris & Etienne in the 21 class and they were picked only a handful of picks later. For GBs purposed I would absolutely not trade Eric Stokes for Najee or Etienne right now.

As for Jacobs easily give me Montez Sweat over him and likely Kaleb McGary as well, and it goes without saying on Deebo.

So you basically just don't believe that an All-Pro level RB brings much of anything to modern NFL offenses then? Because this is a pretty wild take. At least this all makes sense now.

That's not true, but I don't think that dynamically change the game. Our most recent Superbowl winners show how little rbs actually matter to winning. Jacobs was a better pick than some guys drafted directly after him but there are also several who have produced more. Montez Sweat, Hollywood Brown, Jawaan Taylor, and Deebo Samuel have all produced more value for their teams than Josh Jacobs has. Now Jacobs hasn't been the worst either, he's indisputably better than guys like N'keal Harry, Jonathan Abram, Jerry Tillery, & LJ Collier. But that is sort of my point, Josh Jacobs had an all pro year and 3 other solid years and yet is still behind several others who were taken directly behind him. It should also be noted that the McDaniels offense has consistently propped up RBs so I'm skeptical Jacobs all pro season is sustainable in a different offense

[MickeyDavis]

We need Alex Lasry posting a pic of the Packers draft board. My guess we go OL but obviously it depends who's left on their board.

[M-C-G]

Way too many takes spinning out of control here. If we can all agree that QB is the most important position, than is it better to strike out on Baker Mayfield, Josh Rose, Sam Darnold than take a Barkley? Of course you wouldn't, but that is why it doesn't make sense to do too much of the revisionist stuff. I'm having TJ Watt and Kevin King PTSD here.

Of course it is better to take a good player than a bad player. Let me ask you this, when was the last time a team took an r1 RB and it was indisputably the best pick they could have made?

When was the last time any GM picked a player of any position that was indisputably the best pick they could make. Now try it for all 32 GMs. This conversation is off the rails now because it only works with selective revisionist history. You are hand picking the best players taken after the pick but ignoring that tons of worse players were also selected.

If you have a time machine, I’ll get us a GM job and we can go crush it together. But until then, not sure we are getting anywhere.


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[MVP2110]

Way too many takes spinning out of control here. If we can all agree that QB is the most important position, than is it better to strike out on Baker Mayfield, Josh Rose, Sam Darnold than take a Barkley? Of course you wouldn't, but that is why it doesn't make sense to do too much of the revisionist stuff. I'm having TJ Watt and Kevin King PTSD here.

Of course it is better to take a good player than a bad player. Let me ask you this, when was the last time a team took an r1 RB and it was indisputably the best pick they could have made?

When was the last time any GM picked a player of any position that was indisputably the best pick they could make. Now try it for all 32 GMs. This conversation is off the rails now because it only works with selective revisionist history. You are hand picking the best players taken after the pick but ignoring that tons of worse players were also selected.

If you have a time machine, I’ll get us a GM job and we can go crush it together. But until then, not sure we are getting anywhere.


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Picks where the team drafted as good of a player as any directly picked after them

Last year the Jets took CB Sauce Gardner, Saints took Chris Olave

2021, Jaguars took Lawrence, Bengals took Chase, Lions took Sewell, Broncos took Surtain, Cowboys took Parsons, Chargers took Slater.

2020, Bengals took Burrow, Chargers took Herbert, Tampa took Wirfs, Minnesota took Jefferson,

2019 Cardinals took Murray, 49ers took Bosa

2018 Bills took Josh Allen, Miami took Fitzpatrick, Tampa took Vea, Green Bay took Jaire, Baltimore took Lamar

That's a rough estimate of picks I'd guess teams would trade those guys for the next 10ish guys after. You can quibble on some or say I left some off(example I left off Chase Young but on a redraft I'd guess they'd take Herbert). But notice what positions were taken and what weren't. It's a common theme.

[ReasonablySober]

Of course it is better to take a good player than a bad player. Let me ask you this, when was the last time a team took an r1 RB and it was indisputably the best pick they could have made?

When was the last time any GM picked a player of any position that was indisputably the best pick they could make. Now try it for all 32 GMs. This conversation is off the rails now because it only works with selective revisionist history. You are hand picking the best players taken after the pick but ignoring that tons of worse players were also selected.

If you have a time machine, I’ll get us a GM job and we can go crush it together. But until then, not sure we are getting anywhere.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Picks where the team drafted as good of a player as any directly picked after them

Last year the Jets took CB Sauce Gardner, Saints took Chris Olave

2021, Jaguars took Lawrence, Bengals took Chase, Lions took Sewell, Broncos took Surtain, Cowboys took Parsons, Chargers took Slater.

2020, Bengals took Burrow, Chargers took Herbert, Tampa took Wirfs, Minnesota took Jefferson,

2019 Cardinals took Murray, 49ers took Bosa

2018 Bills took Josh Allen, Miami took Fitzpatrick, Tampa took Vea, Green Bay took Jaire, Baltimore took Lamar

That's a rough estimate of picks I'd guess teams would trade those guys for the next 10ish guys after. You can quibble on some or say I left some off(example I left off Chase Young but on a redraft I'd guess they'd take Herbert). But notice what positions were taken and what weren't. It's a common theme.

Okay, and I'll argue in 2018 the Browns took Ward and the Broncos took Chubb, but in a do-over they both would take guard Quentin Nelson. Dolphins took Fitzpatrick, Bucs took Vea, and the Redskins took Payne, but they'd take safety Derwin James if they could do it again.

2019 Josh Jacobs is going ahead of Ferrell, Daniel Jones, Ed Oliver, Jonah Williams, Christian Wilkins, Darnell Savage, Andre Dilland and Tytus Howard. Deebo Samuel would probably go 30 picks higher. A.J. Brown would have been a first rounder too.

2020 CeeDee Lamb is going before Okudah, Andrew Thomas, Derrick Brown, C.J. Henderson, Mekhi Becton, and A.J. Terrell. Justin Jefferson is going no later than 3rd. Jonathan Taylor is going before about 35 spots higher.

2021 Already mentioned Chase over Sewell, and obviously Wilson. Micah Parsons wouldn't sneak out of the top three. Harris goes before Alijah Vera-Tucker, Jaelan Whillips, Kwity Paye, and Caleb Farley.

[MVP2110]

When was the last time any GM picked a player of any position that was indisputably the best pick they could make. Now try it for all 32 GMs. This conversation is off the rails now because it only works with selective revisionist history. You are hand picking the best players taken after the pick but ignoring that tons of worse players were also selected.

If you have a time machine, I’ll get us a GM job and we can go crush it together. But until then, not sure we are getting anywhere.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Picks where the team drafted as good of a player as any directly picked after them

Last year the Jets took CB Sauce Gardner, Saints took Chris Olave

2021, Jaguars took Lawrence, Bengals took Chase, Lions took Sewell, Broncos took Surtain, Cowboys took Parsons, Chargers took Slater.

2020, Bengals took Burrow, Chargers took Herbert, Tampa took Wirfs, Minnesota took Jefferson,

2019 Cardinals took Murray, 49ers took Bosa

2018 Bills took Josh Allen, Miami took Fitzpatrick, Tampa took Vea, Green Bay took Jaire, Baltimore took Lamar

That's a rough estimate of picks I'd guess teams would trade those guys for the next 10ish guys after. You can quibble on some or say I left some off(example I left off Chase Young but on a redraft I'd guess they'd take Herbert). But notice what positions were taken and what weren't. It's a common theme.

Okay, and I'll argue in 2018 the Browns took Ward and the Broncos took Chubb, but in a do-over they both would take guard Quentin Nelson. Dolphins took Fitzpatrick, Bucs took Vea, and the Redskins took Payne, but they'd take safety Derwin James if they could do it again.

2019 Josh Jacobs is going ahead of Ferrell, Daniel Jones, Ed Oliver, Jonah Williams, Christian Wilkins, Darnell Savage, Andre Dilland and Tytus Howard. Deebo Samuel would probably go 30 picks higher. A.J. Brown would have been a first rounder too.

2020 CeeDee Lamb is going before Okudah, Andrew Thomas, Derrick Brown, C.J. Henderson, Mekhi Becton, and A.J. Terrell. Justin Jefferson is going no later than 3rd. Jonathan Taylor is going before about 35 spots higher.

2021 Already mentioned Chase over Sewell, and obviously Wilson. Micah Parsons wouldn't sneak out of the top three. Harris goes before Alijah Vera-Tucker, Jaelan Whillips, Kwity Paye, and Caleb Farley.

You are missing the point. The question was when was the last time a RB was taken in the 1st where another player taken directly after(10-15 picks) wouldn't have been a better pick? You can find plenty of examples of QBs, WRs, OTs, Edge rushers, Secondary where that player picked clearly provided the best value or as good of value as anyone else. That hasn't been true for a RB since AP and even that is iffy because Revis went 7 picks later.

[ReasonablySober]

Picks where the team drafted as good of a player as any directly picked after them

Last year the Jets took CB Sauce Gardner, Saints took Chris Olave

2021, Jaguars took Lawrence, Bengals took Chase, Lions took Sewell, Broncos took Surtain, Cowboys took Parsons, Chargers took Slater.

2020, Bengals took Burrow, Chargers took Herbert, Tampa took Wirfs, Minnesota took Jefferson,

2019 Cardinals took Murray, 49ers took Bosa

2018 Bills took Josh Allen, Miami took Fitzpatrick, Tampa took Vea, Green Bay took Jaire, Baltimore took Lamar

That's a rough estimate of picks I'd guess teams would trade those guys for the next 10ish guys after. You can quibble on some or say I left some off(example I left off Chase Young but on a redraft I'd guess they'd take Herbert). But notice what positions were taken and what weren't. It's a common theme.

Okay, and I'll argue in 2018 the Browns took Ward and the Broncos took Chubb, but in a do-over they both would take guard Quentin Nelson. Dolphins took Fitzpatrick, Bucs took Vea, and the Redskins took Payne, but they'd take safety Derwin James if they could do it again.

2019 Josh Jacobs is going ahead of Ferrell, Daniel Jones, Ed Oliver, Jonah Williams, Christian Wilkins, Darnell Savage, Andre Dilland and Tytus Howard. Deebo Samuel would probably go 30 picks higher. A.J. Brown would have been a first rounder too.

2020 CeeDee Lamb is going before Okudah, Andrew Thomas, Derrick Brown, C.J. Henderson, Mekhi Becton, and A.J. Terrell. Justin Jefferson is going no later than 3rd. Jonathan Taylor is going before about 35 spots higher.

2021 Already mentioned Chase over Sewell, and obviously Wilson. Micah Parsons wouldn't sneak out of the top three. Harris goes before Alijah Vera-Tucker, Jaelan Whillips, Kwity Paye, and Caleb Farley.

You are missing the point. The question was when was the last time a RB was taken in the 1st where another player taken directly after(10-15 picks) wouldn't have been a better pick? You can find plenty of examples of QBs, WRs, OTs, Edge rushers, Secondary where that player picked clearly provided the best value. That hasn't been true since AP and even that is iffy because Revis went 7 picks later.

And I just gave you a list of players at "more important positions" taken higher than a RB or WR that ended up being worse. There's only been three TEs taken in the first since 2018. Kmet and Hockenson have both played with crappy QBs. Pitts too, but I'd trade #15 for him in a heartbeat.

[MVP2110]

Okay, and I'll argue in 2018 the Browns took Ward and the Broncos took Chubb, but in a do-over they both would take guard Quentin Nelson. Dolphins took Fitzpatrick, Bucs took Vea, and the Redskins took Payne, but they'd take safety Derwin James if they could do it again.

2019 Josh Jacobs is going ahead of Ferrell, Daniel Jones, Ed Oliver, Jonah Williams, Christian Wilkins, Darnell Savage, Andre Dilland and Tytus Howard. Deebo Samuel would probably go 30 picks higher. A.J. Brown would have been a first rounder too.

2020 CeeDee Lamb is going before Okudah, Andrew Thomas, Derrick Brown, C.J. Henderson, Mekhi Becton, and A.J. Terrell. Justin Jefferson is going no later than 3rd. Jonathan Taylor is going before about 35 spots higher.

2021 Already mentioned Chase over Sewell, and obviously Wilson. Micah Parsons wouldn't sneak out of the top three. Harris goes before Alijah Vera-Tucker, Jaelan Whillips, Kwity Paye, and Caleb Farley.

You are missing the point. The question was when was the last time a RB was taken in the 1st where another player taken directly after(10-15 picks) wouldn't have been a better pick? You can find plenty of examples of QBs, WRs, OTs, Edge rushers, Secondary where that player picked clearly provided the best value. That hasn't been true since AP and even that is iffy because Revis went 7 picks later.

And I just gave you a list of players at "more important positions" taken higher than a RB or WR that ended up being worse. There's only been three TEs taken in the first since 2018. Kmet and Hockenson have both played with crappy QBs. Pitts too, but I'd trade #15 for him in a heartbeat.

My opposition to drafting a TE in the 1st has never been about positional value. A great tight end can have a major effect on winning and I'm not disputing that at all(unlike rb where SB winners often don't have a stud RB)

My opposition to taking a TE in the 1st is because I don't think NFL evaluators or draft niks have learned how to properly evaluate the position coming out of college. The hit rate on mid-late round tight ends is very similar to that of 1st round tight ends. Basically I don't trust that we've learned to identify which tight ends will hit or bust compared to other positions which hit on a much higher rate