2023 Draft Discussion Part 4

[Dalek]

I was listening to David Locke, who is the Jazz person for the Locked on Jazz podcast, and he is one of my favorite draft guys. This year he hasn't watched the prospects in depth yet, but he did do his dive into synergy stats.

He uses three factors and basically says that if you are in the 30 percentile or lower you are in a danger zone of guys who don't typically make it in the NBA, and in the 70th percentile or higher in these factors it makes you more likely to succeed. He doesn't think age is a factor because in the NBA young players are expected to play against vets all the time and if you are suppsoed to be a star you should be able to show well in these factors:

- Athleticism - He used transition scoring, ISO shooting, and at the rim finishing as a baseline for 'functional athleticism'
- Shooting - He used shooting factors like catch and shoot, unguarded catch and shoot spot-up shooting, and pick and roll as a play type.
- Self-creation - ability to create for yourself using jumpers off the dribble creation

In the mocks he said of the top projected lotto guys only Brandon Miller, Gradey Dick were 'green' auto-draft in the lottery and surprisingly Brice Sensabaugh was in that group. The 'light green' group for Jordan Hawkins and Taylor Hendricks.

Reds: JHS, Nick Smith Jr. while Keyonte George, Anthony Black were considered under threshold for a variety of shooting numbers that should make any person drafting them in the lottery think twice. These are players who under the 30th percentile for a range of shooting, or finishing stats that show some big issues.

For guys in the 20s range he raved about a few guys that I liked, Jett Howard for his shooting 80 transition; 68 isolations; 55 pick and roll; 86 spot-up (top four overall); 75 catch and shoot; 79 off the bounce shooting (top three only Brice and Gradey being better)

Julian Strawther was a surprise guy and despite being a junior is only 21. His numbers surprised me: 84 transition; 77 pick and roll (one of the best scorers off that); spot-up 97 ; catch and shoot 93; 71 off the bounce. He looks a bit like Trey Murphy type to me given the size and shooting.

Amari Bailey 84 transition (makes sense because he is a big dunker and athlete); 75 iso; 66 rim shot; 38 pick and roll; 33 spot-up; 77 catch and shot ; 58 dribble off the bounce.

Kobe Bufkin 81 transition; 84 iso (top three); 92 at the rim (best in class) 72 pick and roll; 59 spot up; +50 catch and shoot.

For the combos it is interesting that Bufkin and Bailey stand out over the name guys. Bufkin looks elite with his finishing and his pick and roll makes him a believable combo guard. Maybe less so with Bailey given his borderline bad pick and roll, but I really like Bailey's defense and like I constantly point out, he is a special athlete and overall progressed as the season went on.

[ItsDanger]

When looking at Coulibaly, got to project 2 years out, could grow still, he's got that pace and space style that works very well in any setting. If you want SGA, you're likely not getting him anytime soon. But what if there was a younger/taller version possibly available? Not saying that that he will be a 30 PPG NBA guy but style wise there are many similarities and could be a lesser version for sure. Watch this video and then watch Coulibaly.

Watch on YouTube

[OakleyDokely]

I was listening to David Locke, who is the Jazz person for the Locked on Jazz podcast, and he is one of my favorite draft guys. This year he hasn't watched the prospects in depth yet, but he did do his dive into synergy stats.

He uses three factors and basically says that if you are in the 30 percentile or lower you are in a danger zone of guys who don't typically make it in the NBA, and in the 70th percentile or higher in these factors it makes you more likely to succeed. He doesn't think age is a factor because in the NBA young players are expected to play against vets all the time and if you are suppsoed to be a star you should be able to show well in these factors:

- Athleticism - He used transition scoring, ISO shooting, and at the rim finishing as a baseline for 'functional athleticism'
- Shooting - He used shooting factors like catch and shoot, unguarded catch and shoot spot-up shooting, and pick and roll as a play type.
- Self-creation - ability to create for yourself using jumpers off the dribble creation

In the mocks he said of the top projected lotto guys only Brandon Miller, Gradey Dick were 'green' auto-draft in the lottery and surprisingly Brice Sensabaugh was in that group. The 'light green' group for Jordan Hawkins and Taylor Hendricks.

Reds: JHS, Nick Smith Jr. while Keyonte George, Anthony Black were considered under threshold for a variety of shooting numbers that should make any person drafting them in the lottery think twice. These are players who under the 30th percentile for a range of shooting, or finishing stats that show some big issues.

For guys in the 20s range he raved about a few guys that I liked, Jett Howard for his shooting 80 transition; 68 isolations; 55 pick and roll; 86 spot-up (top four overall); 75 catch and shoot; 79 off the bounce shooting (top three only Brice and Gradey being better)

Julian Strawther was a surprise guy and despite being a junior is only 21. His numbers surprised me: 84 transition; 77 pick and roll (one of the best scorers off that); spot-up 97 ; catch and shoot 93; 71 off the bounce. He looks a bit like Trey Murphy type to me given the size and shooting.

Amari Bailey 84 transition (makes sense because he is a big dunker and athlete); 75 iso; 66 rim shot; 38 pick and roll; 33 spot-up; 77 catch and shot ; 58 dribble off the bounce.

Kobe Bufkin 81 transition; 84 iso (top three); 92 at the rim (best in class) 72 pick and roll; 59 spot up; +50 catch and shoot.

For the combos it is interesting that Bufkin and Bailey stand out over the name guys. Bufkin looks elite with his finishing and his pick and roll makes him a believable combo guard. Maybe less so with Bailey given his borderline bad pick and roll, but I really like Bailey's defense and like I constantly point out, he is a special athlete and overall progressed as the season went on.

Julian Strawther will be the Trey Murphy / Jalen Williams of this draft.

A lot of those names are also reflected positively / negatively through TS%

Freshman:
T Hendricks: .589
B Sensabaugh: .587
B Miller: .583
G Dick: .581
C Whitmore: .571
J Howard: .562
A Bailey: .553
A Black: .549
D Whitehead: .548
C Wallace: .543
J Walker: .534
K Filipowski: .533
K George: .524
J Hood-Schifino: .492
GG Jackson: .474
N Smith: .472

Soph:
B Podziemski: .602
J Hawkins: .584
K Bufkin: .578
T Alexander: .578
M Lewis: .567
T Smith: .494

Junior/Senior:
J Strawther: .602
M Sasser: .597
C Jones: .580
K Murray: 572
J Jaquez: .543
R Council: .542
J Wilson: .540
A Jackson: .509

[gbball]

I have a feeling Bilal will be firmly on Masai's radar. He just seems like a Masai prospect, but in a guard's body instead of a forward.

Another shot at Bruno 2.0?

This board can't arrive at a consensus that Bilal should be the pick. That's almost a guarantee he'll suck

I think Demar was the last consensus pick I remember. There were a lot people skeptical of Suggs. Koloko was a bit of a consensus too.

[bluerap23]

Just wondering how this board would react if we drafted a super raw, skinny, 6'9" 18 year old, small forward, international prospect that can't shoot, and has no real prospect of becoming a shooter?

The above being Giannis in 2013.

[gbball]

When looking at Coulibaly, got to project 2 years out, could grow still, he's got that pace and space style that works very well in any setting. If you want SGA, you're likely not getting him anytime soon. But what if there was a younger/taller version possibly available? Not saying that that he will be a 30 PPG NBA guy but style wise there are many similarities and could be a lesser version for sure. Watch this video and then watch Coulibaly.

Watch on YouTube

That's who I saw too in terms of playstyle. If he's 6'8 I'd throw a young McGrady out there too minus the playmaking as I haven't seen much facilitating from him in the highlights I've seen. He's in the Shaedon mould with less shooting and more size & defense.

[gbball]

Just wondering how this board would react if we drafted a super raw, skinny, 6'9" 18 year old, small forward, international prospect that can't shoot, and has no real prospect of becoming a shooter?

The above being Giannis in 2013.

Fans here would probably gripe...but if we see them play and they are oozing with talent, I think we'd all be on board pretty quickly. I hope Masai doesn't feel obligated to get a shooter with our pick.

[Yallbecrazy]

I'm really skeptical of Strawther, he played on a loaded Gonzaga team and he put up really good shooting numbers, but offered very little in terms of playmaking or defense. He probably had more space to operate in than anyone in the draft.

[Jadoogar]

So getting caught up on the last thread. Some of you guys are setting expectations way too high. Some guy was saying it would be a disappointment if we selected a Malik Monk type at 13. Do you know what happens to most players selected at 13? They are out of the league in 4 years.

Last few #13 picks:
- Jalen Duren (projects to be a good starting center)
- Chris Durate (bench 3+D guy)
- Kira Lewis (legit don't know where this guy is right now)
- Tyler Herro (3rd option on a good team)
- Jerome Robinson (not in the league)
- Donovon Mitchell (all star)
- Georgis Papagannis (out of the league)
- Devin Booker (all-nba)
- Zach Lavine (all star)
- Kelly Olynyk (bench big)
- Kendall Marshal (idk who this is)
- Markieff Morris (bench big)

There's a couple of star players in that list but they are the minority. If we can get a good starter level player, i think that's a home run.

[Jadoogar]

Looking at my own post, Booker dropped to 13th. He played on a very stacked Kentucky team and three other Kentucky players were selected ahead of him in that draft.

I don't follow college very much, is there anyone who's being undervalued because they were the 4th option on their college team?

[Jadoogar]

Just wondering how this board would react if we drafted a super raw, skinny, 6'9" 18 year old, small forward, international prospect that can't shoot, and has no real prospect of becoming a shooter?

The above being Giannis in 2013.

i wonder how you would react if we drafted a super raw, skinny, 7'0" PF/C, international prospect that had all the physical tools to become a star?

The above being Thon Maker in 2015

[bluerap23]

Just wondering how this board would react if we drafted a super raw, skinny, 6'9" 18 year old, small forward, international prospect that can't shoot, and has no real prospect of becoming a shooter?

The above being Giannis in 2013.

i wonder how you would react if we drafted a super raw, skinny, 7'0" PF/C, international prospect that had all the physical tools to become a star?

The above being Thon Maker in 2015

Point is - drafting for need never works out. Malachi Flynn is a prime example (drafted when Fred was entering free agency last time). Always gotta go with the best possible talent, regardless if the last thing we need is another non-shooting SF.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Another shot at Bruno 2.0?

This board can't arrive at a consensus that Bilal should be the pick. That's almost a guarantee he'll suck

I think Demar was the last consensus pick I remember. There were a lot people skeptical of Suggs. Koloko was a bit of a consensus too.

No DeMar was far from consensus. Jrue Holiday had a big following here. While never total consensus, the reaction to Scottie over Suggs was an indication that there was a consensus on Suggs, even though a few didn't like him. Those few were right and the rest of us were wrong.

[Jadoogar]

Just wondering how this board would react if we drafted a super raw, skinny, 6'9" 18 year old, small forward, international prospect that can't shoot, and has no real prospect of becoming a shooter?

The above being Giannis in 2013.

i wonder how you would react if we drafted a super raw, skinny, 7'0" PF/C, international prospect that had all the physical tools to become a star?

The above being Thon Maker in 2015

Point is - drafting for need never works out. Malachi Flynn is a prime example (drafted when Fred was entering free agency last time). Always gotta go with the best possible talent, regardless if the last thing we need is another non-shooting SF.

Neither strategy is foolproof. Drafting on potential and ignoring need altogether results in selecting Marvin Williams over CP and Deron Williams.

Of course you select the prospect you feel is best but it's not like this is an exact science. Unless one player is significantly more talented, you should consider need and fit because you need to put these young players into a position to succeed.

[ATLTimekeeper]

So getting caught up on the last thread. Some of you guys are setting expectations way too high. Some guy was saying it would be a disappointment if we selected a Malik Monk type at 13. Do you know what happens to most players selected at 13? They are out of the league in 4 years.

Last few #13 picks:
- Jalen Duren (projects to be a good starting center)
- Chris Durate (bench 3+D guy)
- Kira Lewis (legit don't know where this guy is right now)
- Tyler Herro (3rd option on a good team)
- Jerome Robinson (not in the league)
- Donovon Mitchell (all star)
- Georgis Papagannis (out of the league)
- Devin Booker (all-nba)
- Zach Lavine (all star)
- Kelly Olynyk (bench big)
- Kendall Marshal (idk who this is)
- Markieff Morris (bench big)

There's a couple of star players in that list but they are the minority. If we can get a good starter level player, i think that's a home run.

That's not how you should look at the pick slot. Also need to look at what 'most' means. Markieff also started like half his games, but whatever.

[gbball]

This board can't arrive at a consensus that Bilal should be the pick. That's almost a guarantee he'll suck

I think Demar was the last consensus pick I remember. There were a lot people skeptical of Suggs. Koloko was a bit of a consensus too.

No DeMar was far from consensus. Jrue Holiday had a big following here. While never total consensus, the reaction to Scottie over Suggs was an indication that there was a consensus on Suggs, even though a few didn't like him. Those few were right and the rest of us were wrong.

Yeah, I will concede that Suggs was pretty much a consensus. I might be projecting a bit. I wanted Derozan and Koloko, but wasn't sold on Suggs. I may have paid attention to the like minded people.

[wegotthabeet]

What's that Emoni Bates draft stock looking like?

like Chris Taft's.

[Jadoogar]

So getting caught up on the last thread. Some of you guys are setting expectations way too high. Some guy was saying it would be a disappointment if we selected a Malik Monk type at 13. Do you know what happens to most players selected at 13? They are out of the league in 4 years.

Last few #13 picks:
- Jalen Duren (projects to be a good starting center)
- Chris Durate (bench 3+D guy)
- Kira Lewis (legit don't know where this guy is right now)
- Tyler Herro (3rd option on a good team)
- Jerome Robinson (not in the league)
- Donovon Mitchell (all star)
- Georgis Papagannis (out of the league)
- Devin Booker (all-nba)
- Zach Lavine (all star)
- Kelly Olynyk (bench big)
- Kendall Marshal (idk who this is)
- Markieff Morris (bench big)

There's a couple of star players in that list but they are the minority. If we can get a good starter level player, i think that's a home run.

That's not how you should look at the pick slot. Also need to look at what 'most' means. Markieff also started like half his games, but whatever.

I understand it's dumb to look at just the 13th pick, you can expand it to 11-15 slots and the results won't vary all that much. Devin Booker was selected 13, #12 was Trey Lyles and #14 was Cam Payne.
Markieff started a bunch for the wizards, in reality he was a bench player on a good team.

Point is, if you get a good starter or high end bench player out of this slot, you should consider it a win.

[AbC?]

This draft sucks so just take Coulibaly - young, length, fluid athlete (not a stiff like Barnes), international. If there’s a steal in the draft it’s often the Euro guy.

Bufkin looks good too but his pencil neck gives me pause.

[will]

What's that Emoni Bates draft stock looking like?

like Chris Taft's.

Damn.

That is a name from way back.

He played at Pitt, right?