OakleyDokely wrote:Dalek wrote:I was listening to David Locke, who is the Jazz person for the Locked on Jazz podcast, and he is one of my favorite draft guys. This year he hasn't watched the prospects in depth yet, but he did do his dive into synergy stats.
He uses three factors and basically says that if you are in the 30 percentile or lower you are in a danger zone of guys who don't typically make it in the NBA, and in the 70th percentile or higher in these factors it makes you more likely to succeed. He doesn't think age is a factor because in the NBA young players are expected to play against vets all the time and if you are suppsoed to be a star you should be able to show well in these factors:
- Athleticism - He used transition scoring, ISO shooting, and at the rim finishing as a baseline for 'functional athleticism'
- Shooting - He used shooting factors like catch and shoot, unguarded catch and shoot spot-up shooting, and pick and roll as a play type.
- Self-creation - ability to create for yourself using jumpers off the dribble creation
In the mocks he said of the top projected lotto guys only Brandon Miller, Gradey Dick were 'green' auto-draft in the lottery and surprisingly Brice Sensabaugh was in that group. The 'light green' group for Jordan Hawkins and Taylor Hendricks.
Reds: JHS, Nick Smith Jr. while Keyonte George, Anthony Black were considered under threshold for a variety of shooting numbers that should make any person drafting them in the lottery think twice. These are players who under the 30th percentile for a range of shooting, or finishing stats that show some big issues.
For guys in the 20s range he raved about a few guys that I liked, Jett Howard for his shooting 80 transition; 68 isolations; 55 pick and roll; 86 spot-up (top four overall); 75 catch and shoot; 79 off the bounce shooting (top three only Brice and Gradey being better)
Julian Strawther was a surprise guy and despite being a junior is only 21. His numbers surprised me: 84 transition; 77 pick and roll (one of the best scorers off that); spot-up 97 ; catch and shoot 93; 71 off the bounce. He looks a bit like Trey Murphy type to me given the size and shooting.
Amari Bailey 84 transition (makes sense because he is a big dunker and athlete); 75 iso; 66 rim shot; 38 pick and roll; 33 spot-up; 77 catch and shot ; 58 dribble off the bounce.
Kobe Bufkin 81 transition; 84 iso (top three); 92 at the rim (best in class) 72 pick and roll; 59 spot up; +50 catch and shoot.
For the combos it is interesting that Bufkin and Bailey stand out over the name guys. Bufkin looks elite with his finishing and his pick and roll makes him a believable combo guard. Maybe less so with Bailey given his borderline bad pick and roll, but I really like Bailey's defense and like I constantly point out, he is a special athlete and overall progressed as the season went on.
Julian Strawther will be the Trey Murphy / Jalen Williams of this draft.
A lot of those names are also reflected positively / negatively through TS%
Freshman:
T Hendricks: .589
B Sensabaugh: .587
B Miller: .583
G Dick: .581
C Whitmore: .571
J Howard: .562
A Bailey: .553
A Black: .549
D Whitehead: .548
C Wallace: .543
J Walker: .534
K Filipowski: .533
K George: .524
J Hood-Schifino: .492
GG Jackson: .474
N Smith: .472
Soph:
B Podziemski: .602
J Hawkins: .584
K Bufkin: .578
T Alexander: .578
M Lewis: .567
T Smith: .494
Junior/Senior:
J Strawther: .602
M Sasser: .597
C Jones: .580
K Murray: 572
J Jaquez: .543
R Council: .542
J Wilson: .540
A Jackson: .509
Some interesting notes based on the names you referenced:
I really like your Jalen Williams reference, because to me Strawther is similarly impactful and has the size to defend in the NBA. He also has a sort of shotput release a bit like Jalen Williams which is not a classical form but he gets the job done and seems to elevate enough. Strawther is one of the few guys in the NCAA with a 40 point game.
Hendricks was elite in transition and his outside shooting was great, but weirdly the guy has trouble making lay-ups. Seems pretty fixable, but weird that a guy with his athleticism has a flaw like that.
Dariq Whitehead had high level outside shooting and pick and roll, but his transition and rim finishing were scary. Now, I don't know if it is the knee recovery playing a part, but his finishing was in that low 30 percentile, if I recall correctly.
Locke also raved about the value of getting Colby Jones in the 20s: 74 transition; 88 pick and roll; 64 spot-up; 91 catch and shoot.
Hood-Schifino is the guy who worries me, because you could see Bobby liking the size and PG and TS% looks good, but he can't finish at the rim or draw fouls and has only a handful of dunks so you kind of worry if he is missing functional athleticism.
No one last year under 6'4 was drafted in first. Scoot will be the first in a while. Marcus Sasser at 6'2 likely won't be a first rounder based on size, but he had really good numbers: 76 transition 65 iso 76 rim finisher 89 pick and roll (scoring for himself not creating for others); 97 spot-up shooting; 95 catch and shoot.
