2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

[rk2023]

I'm impressed by him and will certainly consider him, but statistically it doesn't seem like it was that jaw-dropping of a leap. All things being equal, I'm more inclined to favor a guy who broke through to stardom.

I agree Reaves shouldn’t get most improved, but I will say it’s the post trade numbers by him that have been insane. Playoffs he hasn’t gotten the calls that he got in the RS (which is fair)

Good point, and I really hope that the Lakers next year look to treat Reaves as a major part of all of their offensive scheming going forward.

Hoping (for the teams' sake) my 2024 ballot could include Davis in the DPOY conversations, Rui in 6MOY, and Reaves in MIP. Wishful thinking, but hey it's not bad to have hope sometimes

[Outside]

Thoughts on Reaves for Most Improved?

I'm impressed by him and will certainly consider him, but statistically it doesn't seem like it was that jaw-dropping of a leap. All things being equal, I'm more inclined to favor a guy who broke through to stardom.

What are your thoughts regarding De'Aaron Fox for MIP?

He improved his RS box score stats pretty much across the board, but not huge leaps, though his increase in efficiency is notable (TS% up to .599 from .549 last season and previous high of .568, TOV% a career low 10.6), and he has made a leap toward stardom this PS, though it's only four games. Even if his impact stats are not into elite territory compared to the best players in the league, they are up nicely from previous seasons.

How much of that is attributable to him vs system/coaching/team success? And how much does that even matter?

[Colbinii]

Thoughts on Reaves for Most Improved?

I'm impressed by him and will certainly consider him, but statistically it doesn't seem like it was that jaw-dropping of a leap. All things being equal, I'm more inclined to favor a guy who broke through to stardom.

What are your thoughts regarding De'Aaron Fox for MIP?

He improved his RS box score stats pretty much across the board, but not huge leaps, though his increase in efficiency is notable (TS% up to .599 from .549 last season and previous high of .568, TOV% a career low 10.6), and he has made a leap toward stardom this PS, though it's only four games. Even if his impact stats are not into elite territory compared to the best players in the league, they are up nicely from previous seasons.

How much of that is attributable to him vs system/coaching/team success? And how much does that even matter?

His TS+ went from -18.2 to 53.6

[Doctor MJ]

They may not have had a great Drtg with Giannis(unsure how to figure out what the drating was before giannis went out in game 1), but they have "fallen apart" without him. Drating in the two non-giannis games was significantly higher than it was in game 4 and in game 1 the heat went nova when Giannis went out.

To me "falling apart" needs to indicate a massive difference with and without the player, which I don't see a statistical basis for here.

You talk about the Heat going nova in Game 1 after Giannis went out - just keep in mind that Giannis was -9 in 11 minutes, the team was -4 in the other 37, then followed that up with a victory without him.

Remember also that the last time the Heat upset the Bucks, they won their one game in the series with Giannis playing bench predominantly. Not looking to make some extreme hot take here against Giannis, but let's just say that if you were looking to extrapolate about Giannis and the Bucks based solely on their playoff series against Jimmy, I don't think anyone would be thinking "Giannis was the best player but got let down by his teammates.".

If Jimmy and the Heat can finish this off, it's probably always going to be a thing that people point out about Giannis that in matchups against Jimmy, the Bucks had the misfortune of not having the best player on the court. And while that isn't exactly a fair thing to run thing, it's pretty damn amazing that this is happening again.

Tbf, if we agree Jimmy is playing the best in the playoffs(and was arguably doing that last playoffs too without facing the Bucks(though I think Giannis was better)) and Jimmy's mean performance since he's been at miami as a postseason performer is "bitw" worthy, Giannis by default won't be the best player on the floor. Giannis can be the second best performer of the postseason and lose out to the best performer(and I do think with or without Jimmy's, Giannis's game 4 performance of excellent(peak kg-level playmaking tbh)). Not saying you're doing this, but "Giannis isn't the best player on the court" shouldn't be an automatic assumption that players who are "the best player on the court" in another series were playing better because the "best player" competition is weaker.

It is true that the Bucks won the "most" giannis-less game vs Miami, but it's also true that Giannis had his best per-minute production(by a landslide) in the game they won. And that injury was there from game 2(I think there's a general durability critique people can make of giannis given he's had injury issues in 3 of the last 4 playoffs).

For DPOY consideration, like the Lakers/memphis, how well the heat/butler do offensively beyond the bucks(assuming they win which the might not), should be factored in. If Miami/Buyler is torching the other dpoy candidates then maybe being torched offensively by miami/butler doesn't mean all that. Even in the 2020 playoffs, the Heat consistently played way above their rs level, and took 2 games off a team that had went 12-4 in a conference with a +6 srs team(signifcantly higher full strength) without Bam(who i see as the biggest contributor to their bucks win(and there is some emperical support for that)) and Dragic.

Final point I'll make is I think people have retroactively overrated Jimmy's performances prior to the 2020 finals. Bam actually was doing better via plus-minus/box hybrids in the first three rounds and the biggest factor in the Bucks series to me was how Bam was able to deal with Giannis. Embid also led the league in plus-minus and PIPM in 2019 and was the focus of the Raptors defense(and Gasol's primary focus). The 2020 2nd round wasn't really butler vs giannis to me. It was more "bucks defensive scheme vs shooting" and then "bam nuetralizes giannis"(the opposite has happened in the subsequent series) and then "Jimmy's goes off in game 3 and makes key plays down the stretch". The idea that Butler carried Miami on his back during 2020 feels revisionist

To your point of not knocking a guy relative to others simply because he ends up matched up against the best, I completely agree and certainly consider these things when doing my summative evaluation.

Re: People overrate what Butler did in the 2020 finals. Very true. Butler doesn't kill everyone...but he does kill the Bucks, which is why I bring that up.

[Doctor MJ]

Thoughts on Reaves for Most Improved?

I'm impressed by him and will certainly consider him, but statistically it doesn't seem like it was that jaw-dropping of a leap. All things being equal, I'm more inclined to favor a guy who broke through to stardom.

What are your thoughts regarding De'Aaron Fox for MIP?

He improved his RS box score stats pretty much across the board, but not huge leaps, though his increase in efficiency is notable (TS% up to .599 from .549 last season and previous high of .568, TOV% a career low 10.6), and he has made a leap toward stardom this PS, though it's only four games. Even if his impact stats are not into elite territory compared to the best players in the league, they are up nicely from previous seasons.

How much of that is attributable to him vs system/coaching/team success? And how much does that even matter?

I think he's a good candidate, but to this point not an overwhelming one. Lauri remains my leader in the clubhouse for the moment.

Re: leap to stardom in PS. I'm waiting to see how this plays out.

Re: how much does him vs context matter? That's up to each voter to decide. I think it's a worthy thing to consider, but I'm cautious about making any bold statements about a guy "not actually improving".

For Lauri, for example, I don't think there's any doubt that he was far better already than he'd ever been able to show before this season, and so while I think he had legit improvement this season figuring things out he never figured out before, I can see the argument that someone else may have actually improved more. But his rise to relevance this season was utterly shocking given how he was viewed in the NBA prior to this year.

[MyUniBroDavis]

With Most Improved player, one rule of thumb in terms of how I personally see the award is that taking a leap towards the all-star / all-NBA levels means more to me (I may have mentioned this in the thread before). With that considered, SGA is a top my leader-board for the award this season - along with Jaren Jackson Jr. Claxton and Lauri would be my other serious finalists.

Even as a Lakers guy, I can't see the case for Reaves. If his post ASB stretch happened to be sustainable or (shifting to a possibility rather than hindsight) he vastly exceeds my expectations in the Playoffs, I'd consider giving him an Honorable Mention shout. I've also been impressed with Jaren's defense this series, which is influencing my stance on voting - whether recency bias or not.

I agree [big proponent of Embiid in 2020 or 2021 I believe, which ever season it was he became a Top 5 guy].

I think there is a good chance Reeves goes on to finish the post-season with something like 18/4/4 on good efficiency in a difficult Western conference [Imagine playing the Grizzles, Warriors and KD Suns or #1 Seed Denver].

He’s adjusted way faster/better than I think anyone expected to not getting the calls he usually gets

Think he’ll be in line for that next year more

[MyUniBroDavis]

To me "falling apart" needs to indicate a massive difference with and without the player, which I don't see a statistical basis for here.

You talk about the Heat going nova in Game 1 after Giannis went out - just keep in mind that Giannis was -9 in 11 minutes, the team was -4 in the other 37, then followed that up with a victory without him.

Remember also that the last time the Heat upset the Bucks, they won their one game in the series with Giannis playing bench predominantly. Not looking to make some extreme hot take here against Giannis, but let's just say that if you were looking to extrapolate about Giannis and the Bucks based solely on their playoff series against Jimmy, I don't think anyone would be thinking "Giannis was the best player but got let down by his teammates.".

If Jimmy and the Heat can finish this off, it's probably always going to be a thing that people point out about Giannis that in matchups against Jimmy, the Bucks had the misfortune of not having the best player on the court. And while that isn't exactly a fair thing to run thing, it's pretty damn amazing that this is happening again.

Tbf, if we agree Jimmy is playing the best in the playoffs(and was arguably doing that last playoffs too without facing the Bucks(though I think Giannis was better)) and Jimmy's mean performance since he's been at miami as a postseason performer is "bitw" worthy, Giannis by default won't be the best player on the floor. Giannis can be the second best performer of the postseason and lose out to the best performer(and I do think with or without Jimmy's, Giannis's game 4 performance of excellent(peak kg-level playmaking tbh)). Not saying you're doing this, but "Giannis isn't the best player on the court" shouldn't be an automatic assumption that players who are "the best player on the court" in another series were playing better because the "best player" competition is weaker.

It is true that the Bucks won the "most" giannis-less game vs Miami, but it's also true that Giannis had his best per-minute production(by a landslide) in the game they won. And that injury was there from game 2(I think there's a general durability critique people can make of giannis given he's had injury issues in 3 of the last 4 playoffs).

For DPOY consideration, like the Lakers/memphis, how well the heat/butler do offensively beyond the bucks(assuming they win which the might not), should be factored in. If Miami/Buyler is torching the other dpoy candidates then maybe being torched offensively by miami/butler doesn't mean all that. Even in the 2020 playoffs, the Heat consistently played way above their rs level, and took 2 games off a team that had went 12-4 in a conference with a +6 srs team(signifcantly higher full strength) without Bam(who i see as the biggest contributor to their bucks win(and there is some emperical support for that)) and Dragic.

Final point I'll make is I think people have retroactively overrated Jimmy's performances prior to the 2020 finals. Bam actually was doing better via plus-minus/box hybrids in the first three rounds and the biggest factor in the Bucks series to me was how Bam was able to deal with Giannis. Embid also led the league in plus-minus and PIPM in 2019 and was the focus of the Raptors defense(and Gasol's primary focus). The 2020 2nd round wasn't really butler vs giannis to me. It was more "bucks defensive scheme vs shooting" and then "bam nuetralizes giannis"(the opposite has happened in the subsequent series) and then "Jimmy's goes off in game 3 and makes key plays down the stretch". The idea that Butler carried Miami on his back during 2020 feels revisionist

To your point of not knocking a guy relative to others simply because he ends up matched up against the best, I completely agree and certainly consider these things when doing my summative evaluation.

Re: People overrate what Butler did in the 2020 finals. Very true. Butler doesn't kill everyone...but he does kill the Bucks, which is why I bring that up.

You mean before the finals right?

Jimmy been killing everyone since other than the bucks I thoughf?

[OhayoKD]

Tbf, if we agree Jimmy is playing the best in the playoffs(and was arguably doing that last playoffs too without facing the Bucks(though I think Giannis was better)) and Jimmy's mean performance since he's been at miami as a postseason performer is "bitw" worthy, Giannis by default won't be the best player on the floor. Giannis can be the second best performer of the postseason and lose out to the best performer(and I do think with or without Jimmy's, Giannis's game 4 performance of excellent(peak kg-level playmaking tbh)). Not saying you're doing this, but "Giannis isn't the best player on the court" shouldn't be an automatic assumption that players who are "the best player on the court" in another series were playing better because the "best player" competition is weaker.

It is true that the Bucks won the "most" giannis-less game vs Miami, but it's also true that Giannis had his best per-minute production(by a landslide) in the game they won. And that injury was there from game 2(I think there's a general durability critique people can make of giannis given he's had injury issues in 3 of the last 4 playoffs).

For DPOY consideration, like the Lakers/memphis, how well the heat/butler do offensively beyond the bucks(assuming they win which the might not), should be factored in. If Miami/Buyler is torching the other dpoy candidates then maybe being torched offensively by miami/butler doesn't mean all that. Even in the 2020 playoffs, the Heat consistently played way above their rs level, and took 2 games off a team that had went 12-4 in a conference with a +6 srs team(signifcantly higher full strength) without Bam(who i see as the biggest contributor to their bucks win(and there is some emperical support for that)) and Dragic.

Final point I'll make is I think people have retroactively overrated Jimmy's performances prior to the 2020 finals. Bam actually was doing better via plus-minus/box hybrids in the first three rounds and the biggest factor in the Bucks series to me was how Bam was able to deal with Giannis. Embid also led the league in plus-minus and PIPM in 2019 and was the focus of the Raptors defense(and Gasol's primary focus). The 2020 2nd round wasn't really butler vs giannis to me. It was more "bucks defensive scheme vs shooting" and then "bam nuetralizes giannis"(the opposite has happened in the subsequent series) and then "Jimmy's goes off in game 3 and makes key plays down the stretch". The idea that Butler carried Miami on his back during 2020 feels revisionist

To your point of not knocking a guy relative to others simply because he ends up matched up against the best, I completely agree and certainly consider these things when doing my summative evaluation.

Re: People overrate what Butler did in the 2020 finals. Very true. Butler doesn't kill everyone...but he does kill the Bucks, which is why I bring that up.

You mean before the finals right?

Jimmy been killing everyone since other than the bucks I thoughf?

Yeah I think doc misread. I said I think Jimmy butler's epic final performance made people retroactively overrate everything that came before the 2020 finals, including his role in the bucks series

[Doctor MJ]

To your point of not knocking a guy relative to others simply because he ends up matched up against the best, I completely agree and certainly consider these things when doing my summative evaluation.

Re: People overrate what Butler did in the 2020 finals. Very true. Butler doesn't kill everyone...but he does kill the Bucks, which is why I bring that up.

You mean before the finals right?

Jimmy been killing everyone since other than the bucks I thoughf?

Yeah I think doc misread. I said I think Jimmy butler's epic final performance made people retroactively overrate everything that came before the 2020 finals, including his role in the bucks series

Erased a post because I'm clearly confused.

[jazzfan1971]

I've been thinking a lot about Kessler and the ROY race.

Upfront: I don't do ROY as a "Most Valuable Rookie" exercise. If I did Kessler would win the award easily, but by that same token, I'd have had someone like Herb Jones as a serious candidate last year. In the case of Jones, the issue is that I don't see someone in his role as likely to ever be a DPOY contender, and that relegates him likely to only ever being a role player.

With Kessler the thing is:

He kinda seems like he's just going to be a role player, but being a top tier defensive big IS the traditional way to become a DPOY contender.

For perspective: Kessler just had more blocks this season than any other rookie in the 21st century and did so in a mere 1700 minutes.

In a nutshell: If this portends that Kessler will be a DPOY candidate like it would have in the past, I think he's my ROY.

But does it? Is a shot-blocker like him no longer what you want to try to build your defense around?

What do y'all think?

I'm not sold on him getting to DPOY level. I think he'll be very good. And maybe his offense comes along and he becomes more of a 2 way guy. But, he feels a couple rungs below Gobert to me defensively.

One could easily imagine a world where his minutes increase. If you took his per 36 numbers from this year you're looking at 14 and 13 with only 3.6 fouls. A mild increase in FT% could push him even higher. A mild increase in use as a rim roller and you could see his point production go even a bit more. And I'm not even asking for a jumper. Just hit 60% from the line and maybe add 2 more rim rolling attempts a night. And I think you could be looking at 15, 12, 2.8 as early as next year.

A lot depends on minutes. It's probably more reasonable to expect 32 min. So, back that off to maybe 13, 10, 2.5. That feels pretty reasonable to me. But, maybe coach will dick around with his minutes again next year. I hope not.

I would probably pencil him in at around the 9-10th best center in the league next year. I'm having trouble imagining Banchero being the 10th best PF, but maybe? He will have to improve a lot on both ends.

[70sFan]

Oh J would for sure disagree Game 1 was close personally, that was the game where they basically couldn’t score in the paint at all, and where he was blocking shots and retaining possession almost every time. I think there were at least 8-9 shots he stuffed or completely forced the miss and got the ball back from

I don’t think it’s a knock on JJJ, I do think he’s the DPOY. But I mean, AD on defense that game was unplayable lol. Are you sure ur not mixing up games? Don’t remember JJJ being particularly insane on defense in game 1

If you mean game 4 I agree with you

One thing I’d say is I feel memphis do kind of have a hell house with their defense, Tillman has been ridiculous and has been able to check both AD and Bron so far (other than when bron just decided to start driving out of control vs bully ball, and Tbf ADs touch has been horrible so far), and konchar became an absurd shot blocker that one game lol

Whereas with the Lakers, in terms of rim protection it really is just AD lol. Brons been more off transition or when a guy goes at him, Vando and Rui have done well but the share of the impact hasn’t really been close

In the context of the current era, 5 blocks and 2 steals a game is crazy and I don’t think it oversells how good he’s been defensively.

Strong disagree on JJJ not being insane in game 1. Davis was also absurd and had more eye catching plays, but both were incredible,

I wanted to make sure I wasn’t tripping so I went a bit more into that game

So by tracking data

JJJ was the closest defender in 21 shots, and Lakers went 15/21

AD was also the closest defender for 21 shots, and the grizzlies went 5/21

Within 10 feet, AD guarded 12 shots and the grizzlies went 4/12, JJJ guarded 13 and the Lakers went 11/13

Within 6 feet, JJJ guarded 11 and the Lakers went 10/11
AD guarded 8, the grizzlies made 4/8

10/13 inside the arc when AD sat, 3/9 when JJJ sat

So overall tracking data
JJJ: 15/21
AD: 5/21

>10 feet
4/12
11/13

>6 feet
JJJ 10/11
AD 4/8





Went through every shot attempt in the paint from nba.com

1) block on roddy
2) Pretty good contest on a made Ja layup where he got ahead of steam in drop
3) transition, not involved
4) Block on Tillman
5) good contest on made Tillman layup on 2 for one because Vando died on the screen
6) JJJ scores on Bron single coverage in the post ft line
7) Ja in transition, not involved
8) scores on bron in the post, AD tries to help late and JJJ makes it over him (this one is on bron since help came high so he needs to be able to read the spin to the baseline, you def see ADs help is reactionary once bron gets beat there)
9) AD forces a miss on a Ja floater (that I didn’t realize wasn’t a block)
10) TBjr dies on screen and they get a dunk in the p and r
11) JJJ tries to score on AD and gets blocked
12) Aldama tries to score on AD, has to put an awkward one kind of
13) tyus Jones floater over Rui, not involved
14) AD blocks JJJ layup outback attempt
15) tyus Jones in transition, miscommunication between AD and Reaves. I’d say it’s on Reaves since you see AD point to where Reaves should be and Jones drives there, since brooks was filling the wing
16) kennard gets a putback, AD contesting a three rpm like 30 feet so he’s not at fault for the rebound I think lol
17) tyus Jones gets by dlo and misses a running floater over AD, he’s in drop and Tillman is behind him so he’s trying to play the pass I think
18) bane misses floater over Dennis, AD not involved
19) AD stops a Ja layup on an island, great contest
20) JJJ misses a shot trying to score on AD, good D imo
21) JJJ scores on bron in the post, AD not involved
22) JJJ hits a floater over Vando, AD not involved? (The entire defense was a bit mismatched there but I mean ADs guy was Tillman so
23) brooks goes for a layup, AD gets a good contest, misses
24) Ja misses a turnaround fadeaway on Vando, AD not involved
25) Bron transition block, AD not involved
26) Bane layup in transition, AD not involved
27) aldama misses running floater over Rui, AD not involved
28) JJJ hits a layup in pick and roll, Dennis and AD were defending, it was executed well
29) Ja misses layup over Reaves, AD not involved
30) AD block on bane floater
31) JJJ misses post hook vs Vando with bron helping
32) JJJ hits it over Vando
33) JJJ misses layup over Rui

1) AD misses a tip in
2) AD misses a fadeaway over Tillman
3) Reaves hits a shot in transition
4) Vando dunks it, JJJ was going to help on AD (Tillman guarding) and he gets it to Vando who dunks it
5) AD dunks it
6) Reaves misses floater over JJJ, fantastic contest
7) lebron misses layup, great contest by JJJ
8) JJJ Got postered in transition, was under the rim cuz he was looking at AD
9) Rui hits the tip in (over jjj but I wouldn’t blame him)
10) Dlo hits layup
11) AD gets offensive board and hits post hook over JJJ
12) Dlo misses floater in transition
13) Rui hits dunk in transition
14) bron hits the reverse layup past JJJ
15) lebron misses layup over bane, fights for the rebound with JJJ and it goes to Rui who makes it
16) Tbjr misses reverse
17) bron gets inside position on kennard and hits a layup over JJJ who has to help
18) AD alley ooo dunk in transition, 2 v 1 Reaves and AD vs JJJ can’t do anything there
19) JJJ great block on AD at the rim
20) bron gets offensive board and hits an and one outback on JJJ (can’t really blame him for the board AD and bron were there)
21) Reaves misses floater
22) Reaves blocked on floater by JJJ
23) AD hits floater over Tillman
24) bron layup in transition
25) Schroder hits layup past kennard, JJJ helped and did good D there
26) Rui drives past and dunks on JJJ who I think got caught on the close out
27) Reaves hits that layup where JJJ fell



Now, breaking those down after having seen every shot in the paint for the most part

JJJ was good, and the tracking data is pretty unfair to him because he got caught in a bunch of bad situations. For the most part he didn’t make any mistakes there, and alotnof it was good offense

BUT, it was absolutely not even close to comparable to how AD played that game lol.

Like, AD won’t keep this level of defensive performance up, because it’s not sustainable lol. Bubble AD was a strong DPOY level guy on that end and he’s been a tier or two ahead of that with his absurd rim protection so far

The memphis defense, especially with Tillman playing like this, is really just slowing guys down packing the paint and JJJ cleaning it up. This isn’t a knock JJJ, he’s one of the best at that in the league

The Lakers paint defense has been better throughout this series with AD on the court, and it’s just been AD and like Rui in the post lol.

To be clear, I think JJJ was probably the best defender in game 4 (I watched it innperson tho so I’m wasn’t really trying to analyze, I was more annoyed at AD in general so I probably ignored his D lol), and overall he’s shown why he’s the DPOY

I just don’t think they’ve been close in that regard this series so far

Good job of proving that you can't just go by the eye test without rewatching the game closer. You get the point and thank you for this post

[Doctor MJ]

I've been thinking a lot about Kessler and the ROY race.

Upfront: I don't do ROY as a "Most Valuable Rookie" exercise. If I did Kessler would win the award easily, but by that same token, I'd have had someone like Herb Jones as a serious candidate last year. In the case of Jones, the issue is that I don't see someone in his role as likely to ever be a DPOY contender, and that relegates him likely to only ever being a role player.

With Kessler the thing is:

He kinda seems like he's just going to be a role player, but being a top tier defensive big IS the traditional way to become a DPOY contender.

For perspective: Kessler just had more blocks this season than any other rookie in the 21st century and did so in a mere 1700 minutes.

In a nutshell: If this portends that Kessler will be a DPOY candidate like it would have in the past, I think he's my ROY.

But does it? Is a shot-blocker like him no longer what you want to try to build your defense around?

What do y'all think?

I'm not sold on him getting to DPOY level. I think he'll be very good. And maybe his offense comes along and he becomes more of a 2 way guy. But, he feels a couple rungs below Gobert to me defensively.

One could easily imagine a world where his minutes increase. If you took his per 36 numbers from this year you're looking at 14 and 13 with only 3.6 fouls. A mild increase in FT% could push him even higher. A mild increase in use as a rim roller and you could see his point production go even a bit more. And I'm not even asking for a jumper. Just hit 60% from the line and maybe add 2 more rim rolling attempts a night. And I think you could be looking at 15, 12, 2.8 as early as next year.

A lot depends on minutes. It's probably more reasonable to expect 32 min. So, back that off to maybe 13, 10, 2.5. That feels pretty reasonable to me. But, maybe coach will dick around with his minutes again next year. I hope not.

I would probably pencil him in at around the 9-10th best center in the league next year. I'm having trouble imagining Banchero being the 10th best PF, but maybe? He will have to improve a lot on both ends.

Appreciate the post, though it didn't end up where I expected.

Sounds like you could be called skeptical about Kessler...but even more skeptical about Banchero.

[tsherkin]

...


Now, breaking those down after having seen every shot in the paint for the most part

JJJ was good, and the tracking data is pretty unfair to him because he got caught in a bunch of bad situations. For the most part he didn’t make any mistakes there, and alotnof it was good offense

BUT, it was absolutely not even close to comparable to how AD played that game lol.

Like, AD won’t keep this level of defensive performance up, because it’s not sustainable lol. Bubble AD was a strong DPOY level guy on that end and he’s been a tier or two ahead of that with his absurd rim protection so far

The memphis defense, especially with Tillman playing like this, is really just slowing guys down packing the paint and JJJ cleaning it up. This isn’t a knock JJJ, he’s one of the best at that in the league

The Lakers paint defense has been better throughout this series with AD on the court, and it’s just been AD and like Rui in the post lol.

To be clear, I think JJJ was probably the best defender in game 4 (I watched it innperson tho so I’m wasn’t really trying to analyze, I was more annoyed at AD in general so I probably ignored his D lol), and overall he’s shown why he’s the DPOY

I just don’t think they’ve been close in that regard this series so far

Really nice post, thanks for putting in the tracking work!

[jazzfan1971]

I've been thinking a lot about Kessler and the ROY race.

Upfront: I don't do ROY as a "Most Valuable Rookie" exercise. If I did Kessler would win the award easily, but by that same token, I'd have had someone like Herb Jones as a serious candidate last year. In the case of Jones, the issue is that I don't see someone in his role as likely to ever be a DPOY contender, and that relegates him likely to only ever being a role player.

With Kessler the thing is:

He kinda seems like he's just going to be a role player, but being a top tier defensive big IS the traditional way to become a DPOY contender.

For perspective: Kessler just had more blocks this season than any other rookie in the 21st century and did so in a mere 1700 minutes.

In a nutshell: If this portends that Kessler will be a DPOY candidate like it would have in the past, I think he's my ROY.

But does it? Is a shot-blocker like him no longer what you want to try to build your defense around?

What do y'all think?

I'm not sold on him getting to DPOY level. I think he'll be very good. And maybe his offense comes along and he becomes more of a 2 way guy. But, he feels a couple rungs below Gobert to me defensively.

One could easily imagine a world where his minutes increase. If you took his per 36 numbers from this year you're looking at 14 and 13 with only 3.6 fouls. A mild increase in FT% could push him even higher. A mild increase in use as a rim roller and you could see his point production go even a bit more. And I'm not even asking for a jumper. Just hit 60% from the line and maybe add 2 more rim rolling attempts a night. And I think you could be looking at 15, 12, 2.8 as early as next year.

A lot depends on minutes. It's probably more reasonable to expect 32 min. So, back that off to maybe 13, 10, 2.5. That feels pretty reasonable to me. But, maybe coach will dick around with his minutes again next year. I hope not.

I would probably pencil him in at around the 9-10th best center in the league next year. I'm having trouble imagining Banchero being the 10th best PF, but maybe? He will have to improve a lot on both ends.

Appreciate the post, though it didn't end up where I expected.

Sounds like you could be called skeptical about Kessler...but even more skeptical about Banchero.

Well, PF is hard to objectively define. Some guys could be considered Cs or SFs, I tried to be reasonable.

Giannis
Tatum
Durant
Zion
Lebron
Mobley
JJJ
Lauri
Randall
Siakam
Gordon
Banchero?

I would see Banchero coming in around 11-12th in PF ranks next year. I guess a bit higher if you don't value defense, but I do.

[tsherkin]

Well, PF is hard to objectively define. Some guys could be considered Cs or SFs, I tried to be reasonable.

Giannis
Tatum
Durant
Zion
Lebron
Mobley
JJJ
Lauri
Randall
Siakam
Gordon
Banchero?

I would see Banchero coming in around 11-12th in PF ranks next year. I guess a bit higher if you don't value defense, but I do.

An interesting thought. I guess a ton with him comes down to how much he can improve as a shooter from basically everywhere, and on D. He's a rookie, so his seasonal percentages were super expected and it's not like he was a monster at Duke. But it's also not like he was starting from such a hole like Karl Malone did, and he turned out just fine as a shooter over time. Will be an interesting one to watch.

[Colbinii]

I'm not sold on him getting to DPOY level. I think he'll be very good. And maybe his offense comes along and he becomes more of a 2 way guy. But, he feels a couple rungs below Gobert to me defensively.

One could easily imagine a world where his minutes increase. If you took his per 36 numbers from this year you're looking at 14 and 13 with only 3.6 fouls. A mild increase in FT% could push him even higher. A mild increase in use as a rim roller and you could see his point production go even a bit more. And I'm not even asking for a jumper. Just hit 60% from the line and maybe add 2 more rim rolling attempts a night. And I think you could be looking at 15, 12, 2.8 as early as next year.

A lot depends on minutes. It's probably more reasonable to expect 32 min. So, back that off to maybe 13, 10, 2.5. That feels pretty reasonable to me. But, maybe coach will dick around with his minutes again next year. I hope not.

I would probably pencil him in at around the 9-10th best center in the league next year. I'm having trouble imagining Banchero being the 10th best PF, but maybe? He will have to improve a lot on both ends.

Appreciate the post, though it didn't end up where I expected.

Sounds like you could be called skeptical about Kessler...but even more skeptical about Banchero.

Well, PF is hard to objectively define. Some guys could be considered Cs or SFs, I tried to be reasonable.

Giannis
Tatum
Durant
Zion
Lebron
Mobley
JJJ
Lauri
Randall
Siakam
Gordon
Banchero?

I would see Banchero coming in around 11-12th in PF ranks next year. I guess a bit higher if you don't value defense, but I do.

Towns?

[MyUniBroDavis]

Strong disagree on JJJ not being insane in game 1. Davis was also absurd and had more eye catching plays, but both were incredible,

I wanted to make sure I wasn’t tripping so I went a bit more into that game

So by tracking data

JJJ was the closest defender in 21 shots, and Lakers went 15/21

AD was also the closest defender for 21 shots, and the grizzlies went 5/21

Within 10 feet, AD guarded 12 shots and the grizzlies went 4/12, JJJ guarded 13 and the Lakers went 11/13

Within 6 feet, JJJ guarded 11 and the Lakers went 10/11
AD guarded 8, the grizzlies made 4/8

10/13 inside the arc when AD sat, 3/9 when JJJ sat

So overall tracking data
JJJ: 15/21
AD: 5/21

>10 feet
4/12
11/13

>6 feet
JJJ 10/11
AD 4/8





Went through every shot attempt in the paint from nba.com

1) block on roddy
2) Pretty good contest on a made Ja layup where he got ahead of steam in drop
3) transition, not involved
4) Block on Tillman
5) good contest on made Tillman layup on 2 for one because Vando died on the screen
6) JJJ scores on Bron single coverage in the post ft line
7) Ja in transition, not involved
8) scores on bron in the post, AD tries to help late and JJJ makes it over him (this one is on bron since help came high so he needs to be able to read the spin to the baseline, you def see ADs help is reactionary once bron gets beat there)
9) AD forces a miss on a Ja floater (that I didn’t realize wasn’t a block)
10) TBjr dies on screen and they get a dunk in the p and r
11) JJJ tries to score on AD and gets blocked
12) Aldama tries to score on AD, has to put an awkward one kind of
13) tyus Jones floater over Rui, not involved
14) AD blocks JJJ layup outback attempt
15) tyus Jones in transition, miscommunication between AD and Reaves. I’d say it’s on Reaves since you see AD point to where Reaves should be and Jones drives there, since brooks was filling the wing
16) kennard gets a putback, AD contesting a three rpm like 30 feet so he’s not at fault for the rebound I think lol
17) tyus Jones gets by dlo and misses a running floater over AD, he’s in drop and Tillman is behind him so he’s trying to play the pass I think
18) bane misses floater over Dennis, AD not involved
19) AD stops a Ja layup on an island, great contest
20) JJJ misses a shot trying to score on AD, good D imo
21) JJJ scores on bron in the post, AD not involved
22) JJJ hits a floater over Vando, AD not involved? (The entire defense was a bit mismatched there but I mean ADs guy was Tillman so
23) brooks goes for a layup, AD gets a good contest, misses
24) Ja misses a turnaround fadeaway on Vando, AD not involved
25) Bron transition block, AD not involved
26) Bane layup in transition, AD not involved
27) aldama misses running floater over Rui, AD not involved
28) JJJ hits a layup in pick and roll, Dennis and AD were defending, it was executed well
29) Ja misses layup over Reaves, AD not involved
30) AD block on bane floater
31) JJJ misses post hook vs Vando with bron helping
32) JJJ hits it over Vando
33) JJJ misses layup over Rui

1) AD misses a tip in
2) AD misses a fadeaway over Tillman
3) Reaves hits a shot in transition
4) Vando dunks it, JJJ was going to help on AD (Tillman guarding) and he gets it to Vando who dunks it
5) AD dunks it
6) Reaves misses floater over JJJ, fantastic contest
7) lebron misses layup, great contest by JJJ
8) JJJ Got postered in transition, was under the rim cuz he was looking at AD
9) Rui hits the tip in (over jjj but I wouldn’t blame him)
10) Dlo hits layup
11) AD gets offensive board and hits post hook over JJJ
12) Dlo misses floater in transition
13) Rui hits dunk in transition
14) bron hits the reverse layup past JJJ
15) lebron misses layup over bane, fights for the rebound with JJJ and it goes to Rui who makes it
16) Tbjr misses reverse
17) bron gets inside position on kennard and hits a layup over JJJ who has to help
18) AD alley ooo dunk in transition, 2 v 1 Reaves and AD vs JJJ can’t do anything there
19) JJJ great block on AD at the rim
20) bron gets offensive board and hits an and one outback on JJJ (can’t really blame him for the board AD and bron were there)
21) Reaves misses floater
22) Reaves blocked on floater by JJJ
23) AD hits floater over Tillman
24) bron layup in transition
25) Schroder hits layup past kennard, JJJ helped and did good D there
26) Rui drives past and dunks on JJJ who I think got caught on the close out
27) Reaves hits that layup where JJJ fell



Now, breaking those down after having seen every shot in the paint for the most part

JJJ was good, and the tracking data is pretty unfair to him because he got caught in a bunch of bad situations. For the most part he didn’t make any mistakes there, and alotnof it was good offense

BUT, it was absolutely not even close to comparable to how AD played that game lol.

Like, AD won’t keep this level of defensive performance up, because it’s not sustainable lol. Bubble AD was a strong DPOY level guy on that end and he’s been a tier or two ahead of that with his absurd rim protection so far

The memphis defense, especially with Tillman playing like this, is really just slowing guys down packing the paint and JJJ cleaning it up. This isn’t a knock JJJ, he’s one of the best at that in the league

The Lakers paint defense has been better throughout this series with AD on the court, and it’s just been AD and like Rui in the post lol.

To be clear, I think JJJ was probably the best defender in game 4 (I watched it innperson tho so I’m wasn’t really trying to analyze, I was more annoyed at AD in general so I probably ignored his D lol), and overall he’s shown why he’s the DPOY

I just don’t think they’ve been close in that regard this series so far

Good job of proving that you can't just go by the eye test without rewatching the game closer. You get the point and thank you for this post

I do think JJJ is an amazing defender and has shown it here, his play style is more as a helper but that’s not really a negative on him at all, it’s like Giannis during his DPOY year for example, they get involved just erase stuff lmao

[iggymcfrack]

I think AD has been by far the best defender this postseason so far, and outside of missing games he was probably a top 5 defender in the RS as well

I dont see AD as being bar far better defensively than JJJ. JJJ has been amazing in the Lakers series and doesn't have the benefit of having the ultimate QB in LeBron next to him.

Not looking to knock JJJ, but the fact that AD has nearly double the blocks as JJJ - when that is JJJ's calling card - is pretty crazy.

I do think AD has an opportunity to zoom to the top of my DPOY list if he keeps this up over a deep run.

Yeah, I could see the same for me, especially given all the weaknesses of the top contenders during the regular season. Would probably need to at least make the conference finals though while keeping up this current standard of play.

[MyUniBroDavis]

So Jimmy is first for POY for me now lol

[Doctor MJ]

Man oh man, what an incredible night, and fascinating to consider what this does for these awards as well as our GOAT rankings.

Big picture here, the fact that Jimmy isn't already in our Top 100 feels crazy, as I know compare his career to other guys and find myself thinking he might debut pretty dang high... more than a decade into his career.

On this season:

So, now Cavs' on my ballots for EOY or COY, and it's amazing how this reshapes Altman's performance. Part of what impressed me about them was how unorthodox their lineup was, and how well it worked given concerns that felt superficial after the success. But in this playoff series, the Cavs' felt like an all-time draft team stitched together based on individual talent that leaves gaping holes in it.

Last year I thought the Cavs shouldn't have made a deal to get another piece (Lavert) primarily because the team was young and the team should keep playing together and then you could figure things out. At this point though I find myself thinking that the Cavs may need to choose one guard (I'd pick Garland) and one big (I'd pick Mobley) and re-roll on the rest. That's harsh.

Mobley still has a case to be on my DPOY ballot so we'll see what happens there.

Leon Rose is now someone seriously in the running for EOY for me, and Thibs may end up a COY candidate for me...which I frankly didn't expect to ever say again.

With that other completed series:

It's likely that this will knock all Bucks off of all my ballots. Giannis is the biggest name here of course, but the more drastic shift would be Brook who would have gotten my RS DPOY vote.

I find myself wondering whether the Bucks will fire Bud. Were it not for the title they would, but of course, they would have already.

For the Heat, Jimmy is certainly now on my POY ballot and Spo on my COY, and both can reach #1. May be easier for Spo to do it than Jimmy. If the Heat exit in the next round, it's hard for me to fathom putting Jimmy at the top.