2023 Draft Discussion Part 4

[OakleyDokely]

I think Masai sees us as having a solid top 6 and Koloko and Achiuwa promising frontcourt options, so I just don't see why we wouldn't take a 6th man style guard at #13 and hope he's Jordan Poole or Quickley.

Same reason he took Poeltl when JV was 24. Both ended up being traded for championship pieces.

you're most likely taking a teenager or a guy in his early 20s who won't really be a major factor for 2-3 years at least and by then, who knows what the roster will look like.

Going with positional need makes sense if you have guys ranked almost identically, otherwise always go BPA regardless of position.

[Ell Curry]

I think Masai sees us as having a solid top 6 and Koloko and Achiuwa promising frontcourt options, so I just don't see why we wouldn't take a 6th man style guard at #13 and hope he's Jordan Poole or Quickley.

Same reason he took Poeltl when JV was 24. Both ended up being traded for championship pieces.

Yeah I'm not saying he won't go BPA. If he thinks Cissoko or Koulibaly or Whitehead or whoever is a star he'll take them, but I just don't see the MLE bringing us back a backup guard who can create, and we went for one in Brogdon last summer.

[ATLTimekeeper]

I think Masai sees us as having a solid top 6 and Koloko and Achiuwa promising frontcourt options, so I just don't see why we wouldn't take a 6th man style guard at #13 and hope he's Jordan Poole or Quickley.

Same reason he took Poeltl when JV was 24. Both ended up being traded for championship pieces.

Yeah I'm not saying he won't go BPA. If he thinks Cissoko or Koulibaly or Whitehead or whoever is a star he'll take them, but I just don't see the MLE bringing us back a backup guard who can create, and we went for one in Brogdon last summer.

It's challenging because the draft precedes FA, but I would bet on trades that re-shape the bench. The starters themselves have to be better with the bench. Some of that is entirely on them.

But, they need to aim for a long-term starter with this pick. Guys that can play 28+ minutes a night carry more value.

[Psubs]

Why do some people think Masai would target a guy like Jett Howard when we already have Gary Trent Jr.? Like what is the appeal with Howard other than that he stands at 6'8 (which means nothing to me) I just do not understand why people think this kid is worth a lottery pick. Just like Gary he's a chucker who does little else to impact a game. At least I can understand someone arguing for Keyonte George who can create some space for himself off the bounce and can get to the rim and finish through contact but Howard is so clearly overhyped.

Jimmy Butler was a well rounded 6'8 SF that was strong and had a triple-double at Marquette like Dwyane Wade. He played 3 years at Marquette. His career 3pt % is under 33%.

I think Sidy fits the profile of a Jimmy Butler. Just can he do it mentally.

I don't believe in Cissoko as a shooter/scorer. That's why I think his ceiling goes more in line of a Draymond type player. Defensive impact, passing, transition play. I have questions about his position and fit schematically in the NBA.

Like he's the SG version of Ron Artest? No one 1-4, is going to bully Cissoko around physically and he's only 19. When someone is trying to drive on him, he does shuffle his feet decently. On offense he doesn't have a quick first step but can get by like OG.

[Dalek]

Why do some people think Masai would target a guy like Jett Howard when we already have Gary Trent Jr.? Like what is the appeal with Howard other than that he stands at 6'8 (which means nothing to me) I just do not understand why people think this kid is worth a lottery pick. Just like Gary he's a chucker who does little else to impact a game. At least I can understand someone arguing for Keyonte George who can create some space for himself off the bounce and can get to the rim and finish through contact but Howard is so clearly overhyped.

I go back and forth on Howard because he has a lot of emerging offensive skills and can shoot it, but he has only a handful of dunks, and seems to have slow feet on defense and doesn't board. I think I get excited about a 6'8 SG, but he might be more of a 6'8 PF in the future as he fills out. His dad was a big body. Toronto doesn't need another tweener.

I think I also watched Michigan emerge with Bufkin and Dickinson being the drivers of their offense. It did feel like Howard at times was a ball stopper or was a slow decision maker. Sometimes it looks like he is not completely engaged in games when he doesn't have the ball.

[billy_hoyle]

I have been doing a deeper dive into replacing Trent Jr., looking at who can shoot from outside, has the clutch shooting gene, and won't be a defensive liability. I am starting to buy into Julian Strawther.

/Movement shooting that is comparable to Jordan Hawkins, but he is 6'7
/19 three pointers deeper than 25 feet
/2 clutch game winners including the one to eliminate UCLA from the logo
/62% at the rim, good floater, high FTr at 32
/Excellent rebounder as a guard/forward 19.6% dreb
/Low DBPM at 0.9, but in watching the film he has quick feet on defense, much more switchable than Jett Howard
/strong handle for shot creation

The holy grail of upper classmen lotto picks is Jalen Williams who went lotto in 2022.

Strawther: 6'7 with a 6'10 wingspan; draft age:21
Williams: 6'5 with a 7'2 wingspan; draft age:21

Strawther / Williams

TS% .602 .601
EFG% .568 .562
3PA RATE .484 .248
FTA RATE .331 .330
PROJ NBA3 .372 .357

Swing factor is playmaking. Strawther isn't the passer that Williams is, but he does play well in pick and roll, and he rebounds better than Williams coming in. I think he is going to move up in the draft because of the premium on shooting and his range is NBA level. He also is a guy who wants the ball in clutch moments much like Williams.

For me, the reason Jalen Williams shot up in the draft was the combine. He showed out, and demonstrated superior talent when actually playing/scrimmaging with his cohorts.

It's not just a numbers game. I'd imagine you can find a bunch of players that meet or exceed that criteria (the 5 stats you laid out above) that amount to nothing. I think it's been a large mistake in historical draft strategy to try and mimic a particular player and chase a 'holy grail'.

Next Dirk - tall versatile shooting 7 footer (Tkitishvilli, Yi Jianlian etc.)
Next Wade - big slashing PG/SG (Waiters etc.)

Just my take.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

I will say Psubs that given Masai's history and obsession with African players (Lowe even reported that the Raps wanted Kuminga) if you were to ask me who he is going to pick there is a very good chance it will be Cissoko.

Look Cissoko has a lot of good things going for him, he is an aggressive defender who can excel in this area if he learns how to play under more control, has good ball handling and passing skills and is an absolute load that nobody wants a part of when he gets a head of steam going to the basket. He is also competitive and has a good basketball IQ. Those all bode extremely well for his ability to stick in the NBA. I don't really know if he stays as an SG in the NBA. If you were to envision him replacing Anunoby down the line he has the upside to offer a similar kind of defensive impact while bringing a ton more offensive versatility to the position due to his ballhandling, passing and better ability to attack the rim.

What is the end game here though? I've seen the awful fit of the players we've had long enough and don't like how Sidy fits with our roster. If I knew for a fact that we are moving on from both OG and Siakam in the next couple of years I'd feel better but not completely better. The Raptors need to take a deep look at prospects with natural scoring and shooting ability in this year's draft and if there's nothing they like then Cissoko makes sense. Otherwise, he doesn't make sense. To me he actually only makes sense as an NBA SF and then you hope his rebounding %s will get better with a schematic change and they should because he has the body and aggressive attitude to be a dominant rebounder so the incredibly low totals are very bizarre and might have to do with his "guard tendencies" from playing guard his entire life. Then again, I don't like making uncalculated excuses for players.

To win in the modern NBA your guards, especially your guards on a team with Jakob Poeltl as the center and we might even include "with Barnes as your PF and Jakob as your C" if Scottie doesn't improve dramatically, absolutely have to be able to jack up volume 3's and nail them at a high rate. It's that simple. Will Sidy stay at SG and be able to do that? I'm leaning no. It then becomes more difficult to build a team with the guys we have in place as we will then need both our PG and SG to be absolutely incredible shooters. There has to be a balance. By committing to the type of players we are committing to, it makes building a roster capable of actually taking down the NBA's best even more difficult.

[Dalek]

I have been doing a deeper dive into replacing Trent Jr., looking at who can shoot from outside, has the clutch shooting gene, and won't be a defensive liability. I am starting to buy into Julian Strawther.

/Movement shooting that is comparable to Jordan Hawkins, but he is 6'7
/19 three pointers deeper than 25 feet
/2 clutch game winners including the one to eliminate UCLA from the logo
/62% at the rim, good floater, high FTr at 32
/Excellent rebounder as a guard/forward 19.6% dreb
/Low DBPM at 0.9, but in watching the film he has quick feet on defense, much more switchable than Jett Howard
/strong handle for shot creation

The holy grail of upper classmen lotto picks is Jalen Williams who went lotto in 2022.

Strawther: 6'7 with a 6'10 wingspan; draft age:21
Williams: 6'5 with a 7'2 wingspan; draft age:21

Strawther / Williams

TS% .602 .601
EFG% .568 .562
3PA RATE .484 .248
FTA RATE .331 .330
PROJ NBA3 .372 .357

Swing factor is playmaking. Strawther isn't the passer that Williams is, but he does play well in pick and roll, and he rebounds better than Williams coming in. I think he is going to move up in the draft because of the premium on shooting and his range is NBA level. He also is a guy who wants the ball in clutch moments much like Williams.

Since his stock is early 2nd like Bryce McGowens, Max Christie, etc, I'd take Strawther with a pick from a trade for a late 1st.

Combo of Boucher, Precious (rookie contract), Flynn (rookie contract)?

I would be shocked that a guy capable of a 50/40/80 splits with good rebounding and clutch shooting and coming from a great basketball program, falls to the second round.

I don't know if Boucher and Flynn have value in the NBA - we'd probably have to give up a pick with those guys. Toronto could take on future salary for dealing Thad who only has about $1m guaranteed for 2023/24. OKC might be game because they can probably need to deal some of their picks this year.

[Psubs]

I think Masai sees us as having a solid top 6 and Koloko and Achiuwa promising frontcourt options, so I just don't see why we wouldn't take a 6th man style guard at #13 and hope he's Jordan Poole or Quickley.

Same reason he took Poeltl when JV was 24. Both ended up being traded for championship pieces.

Yeah I'm not saying he won't go BPA. If he thinks Cissoko or Koulibaly or Whitehead or whoever is a star he'll take them, but I just don't see the MLE bringing us back a backup guard who can create, and we went for one in Brogdon last summer.

Donte DiVincezo would be affordable for the MLE but he's not really a factor in the playoffs and either of his previous playoffs.

Bogdanovic has, but is under contract for a while. Would they trade for cap relief?

[Psubs]

For me, the reason Jalen Williams shot up in the draft was the combine. He showed out, and demonstrated superior talent when actually playing/scrimmaging with his cohorts.

It's not just a numbers game. I'd imagine you can find a bunch of players that meet or exceed that criteria (the 5 stats you laid out above) that amount to nothing. I think it's been a large mistake in historical draft strategy to try and mimic a particular player and chase a 'holy grail'.

Next Dirk - tall versatile shooting 7 footer (Tkitishvilli, Yi Jianlian etc.)
Next Wade - big slashing PG/SG (Waiters etc.)

Just my take.

I would like to see Cissoko with his national team and GLeague experience scrimmage against the college players.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Cissoko isn't at the top of my wishlist, but he's big, handles, young, and has some special vision/execution and he draws a lot of fouls in a low usage role. 30 minute/night potential. On ball potential. Off ball potential. This is a really good prospect just on that. Seems like he is all about the work. Hard to tell how tough or competitive he is in that environment.

[billy_hoyle]

For me, the reason Jalen Williams shot up in the draft was the combine. He showed out, and demonstrated superior talent when actually playing/scrimmaging with his cohorts.

It's not just a numbers game. I'd imagine you can find a bunch of players that meet or exceed that criteria (the 5 stats you laid out above) that amount to nothing. I think it's been a large mistake in historical draft strategy to try and mimic a particular player and chase a 'holy grail'.

Next Dirk - tall versatile shooting 7 footer (Tkitishvilli, Yi Jianlian etc.)
Next Wade - big slashing PG/SG (Waiters etc.)

Just my take.

I would like to see Cissoko with his national team and GLeague experience scrimmage against the college players.

Absolutely.

It would be great for all the high ceiling guys, the foreign guys, and the guys in weaker conferences to play in the combine...

Unfortunately, agents want to preserve their clients perceived value, and don't want front offices making informed decisions which might negatively impact their pockets.

You see some players play and show out tho (Barnes and Jalen Williams as examples). Let's hope guys like Cissoko and Podz and Bilal etc come to play.

[Psubs]

I will say Psubs that given Masai's history and obsession with African players (Lowe even reported that the Raps wanted Kuminga) if you were to ask me who he is going to pick there is a very good chance it will be Cissoko.

Look Cissoko has a lot of good things going for him, he is an aggressive defender who can excel in this area if he learns how to play under more control, has good ball handling and passing skills and is an absolute load that nobody wants a part of when he gets a head of steam going to the basket. He is also competitive and has a good basketball IQ. Those all bode extremely well for his ability to stick in the NBA. I don't really know if he stays as an SG in the NBA. If you were to envision him replacing Anunoby down the line he has the upside to offer a similar kind of defensive impact while bringing a ton more offensive versatility to the position due to his ballhandling, passing and better ability to attack the rim.

What is the end game here though? I've seen the awful fit of the players we've had long enough and don't like how Sidy fits with our roster. If I knew for a fact that we are moving on from both OG and Siakam in the next couple of years I'd feel better but not completely better. The Raptors need to take a deep look at prospects with natural scoring and shooting ability in this year's draft and if there's nothing they like then Cissoko makes sense. Otherwise, he doesn't make sense. To me he actually only makes sense as an NBA SF and then you hope his rebounding %s will get better with a schematic change and they should because he has the body and aggressive attitude to be a dominant rebounder so the incredibly low totals are very bizarre and might have to do with his "guard tendencies" from playing guard his entire life. Then again, I don't like making uncalculated excuses for players.

To win in the modern NBA your guards, especially your guards on a team with Jakob Poeltl as the center and we might even include "with Barnes as your PF and Jakob as your C" if Scottie doesn't improve dramatically, absolutely have to be able to jack up volume 3's and nail them at a high rate. It's that simple. Will Sidy stay at SG and be able to do that? I'm leaning no. It then becomes more difficult to build a team with the guys we have in place as we will then need both our PG and SG to be absolutely incredible shooters. There has to be a balance. By committing to the type of players we are committing to, it makes building a roster capable of actually taking down the NBA's best even more difficult.

OG has strong legs and able to guard PF's and even small C's. Really he guards 2-4. When you see defensive clips of Cissoko he's usally guarding at the top and may get beat by quick guards can recover quite decently; better than Scottie. I know Nurse was trying to have Scottie guard the POA but to me that wasn't ideal. Cissoko should be able to guard 1-4 but more often 1-3, thus I think he can start at SG.

At 19, he already shoots as well as Pascal from 3 and no clear hitches in the shooting motion. Anyways, I think he'll be able to improve 3pt% and FT's a la OG did.

OG shoots the 3 well, so pretty much move GT, FVV and then Pascal, before OG if needed.

PG Barnes
SG Cissoko
SF OG
PF Siakam
C Poeltl

[Dalek]

I have been doing a deeper dive into replacing Trent Jr., looking at who can shoot from outside, has the clutch shooting gene, and won't be a defensive liability. I am starting to buy into Julian Strawther.

/Movement shooting that is comparable to Jordan Hawkins, but he is 6'7
/19 three pointers deeper than 25 feet
/2 clutch game winners including the one to eliminate UCLA from the logo
/62% at the rim, good floater, high FTr at 32
/Excellent rebounder as a guard/forward 19.6% dreb
/Low DBPM at 0.9, but in watching the film he has quick feet on defense, much more switchable than Jett Howard
/strong handle for shot creation

The holy grail of upper classmen lotto picks is Jalen Williams who went lotto in 2022.

Strawther: 6'7 with a 6'10 wingspan; draft age:21
Williams: 6'5 with a 7'2 wingspan; draft age:21

Strawther / Williams

TS% .602 .601
EFG% .568 .562
3PA RATE .484 .248
FTA RATE .331 .330
PROJ NBA3 .372 .357

Swing factor is playmaking. Strawther isn't the passer that Williams is, but he does play well in pick and roll, and he rebounds better than Williams coming in. I think he is going to move up in the draft because of the premium on shooting and his range is NBA level. He also is a guy who wants the ball in clutch moments much like Williams.

For me, the reason Jalen Williams shot up in the draft was the combine. He showed out, and demonstrated superior talent when actually playing/scrimmaging with his cohorts.

It's not just a numbers game. I'd imagine you can find a bunch of players that meet or exceed that criteria (the 5 stats you laid out above) that amount to nothing. I think it's been a large mistake in historical draft strategy to try and mimic a particular player and chase a 'holy grail'.

Next Dirk - tall versatile shooting 7 footer (Tkitishvilli, Yi Jianlian etc.)
Next Wade - big slashing PG/SG (Waiters etc.)

Just my take.

That's a good point about the combine being a factor for Williams. Strawther did the combine last year. He did have the fastest lane agility test for prospects but Williams was a big time athlete as far as vertical and wingspan. Maybe that is a differentiator for evaluators.

I agree with you on the chasing the 'holy grail' as not everyone can fit those special archetypes which go beyond numbers and measurements. I do think Strawther has a lot of very positive advanced stats and for me the big part is passing the eye test as a player who wants to lead and compete. Stuff that is standing out to me is how his coach perceives him and how he is a guy who wants it in the big moments like after the gamewinner against UCLA:

"I'm telling you, he's made that shot multiple times for us this year. You look back at the BYU game, he had a very deep three, a dagger three like that in that game, very similar. We practice that play. That's Jay Wright's play that he used in the Villanova-North Carolina championship. That's what we call it. Julian makes it all the time. When he asked me, it was stronger words than what he used. I just said, yeah, make it. Make it. But if he was closely guarded I wanted him going downhill to get to his floater which he's been great at all year."

I have a feeling OKC will want him. He fits their big guard, playmaking, shooting identity. I'd imagine that Chet will advocate for him as well.

[Psubs]

Cissoko isn't at the top of my wishlist, but he's big, handles, young, and has some special vision/execution and he draws a lot of fouls in a low usage role. 30 minute/night potential. On ball potential. Off ball potential. This is a really good prospect just on that. Seems like he is all about the work. Hard to tell how tough or competitive he is in that environment.

Also when he dunks he shows emotion but never shows up opponents. I may be just highlights but he seems to make the right play for the team.

My realistic wishlist before Cissoko would be any of Cason Wallace, Taylor Hendricks, Anthony Black, Jarace Walker. If they draft Hendricks or Waker, then Boucher and Precious should be traded.

[Dalek]

OG has strong legs and able to guard PF's and even small C's. Really he guards 2-4. When you see defensive clips of Cissoko he's usally guarding at the top and may get beat by quick guards can recover quite decently; better than Scottie. I know Nurse was trying to have Scottie guard the POA but to me that wasn't ideal. Cissoko should be able to guard 1-4 but more often 1-3, thus I think he can start at SG.

At 19, he already shoots as well as Pascal from 3 and no clear hitches in the shooting motion. Anyways, I think he'll be able to improve 3pt% and FT's a la OG did.

OG shoots the 3 well, so pretty much move GT, FVV and then Pascal, before OG if needed.

PG Barnes
SG Cissoko
SF OG
PF Siakam
C Poeltl

That lineup has almost negative shooting. Guys can sag off Sidy and Scottie and Poeltl. You also are going to have trouble guarding anyone who is 6'4 and quick. Just remember how Chicago came back from 20 point down by constantly driving into the paint. Sidy is probably going to be an ok defender, but not a POA defender and he will also fill out in time so he might lose some agility.

[Yallbecrazy]

Something else that favours Cissoko and Coulibaly as prospects is that they both apparently have had late growth spurts. Often one can lose coordination after a growth spurt so expecting one to be a knock down shooter at that point is unrealistic so I wouldn't necessarily cap them as being non-shooters.

[Psubs]

That's a good point about the combine being a factor for Williams. Strawther did the combine last year. He did have the fastest lane agility test for prospects but Williams was a big time athlete as far as vertical and wingspan. Maybe that is a differentiator for evaluators.

I agree with you on the chasing the 'holy grail' as not everyone can fit those special archetypes which go beyond numbers and measurements. I do think Strawther has a lot of very positive advanced stats and for me the big part is passing the eye test as a player who wants to lead and compete. Stuff that is standing out to me is how his coach perceives him and how he is a guy who wants it in the big moments like after the gamewinner against UCLA:

I have a feeling OKC will want him. He fits their big guard, playmaking, shooting identity. I'd imagine that Chet will advocate for him as well.

I can see OKC trading #12 and #37 for #20 and #21. Then BK drafts Cason Wallace with #12 and I'm sad.

[ATLTimekeeper]

For me, the reason Jalen Williams shot up in the draft was the combine. He showed out, and demonstrated superior talent when actually playing/scrimmaging with his cohorts.

It's not just a numbers game. I'd imagine you can find a bunch of players that meet or exceed that criteria (the 5 stats you laid out above) that amount to nothing. I think it's been a large mistake in historical draft strategy to try and mimic a particular player and chase a 'holy grail'.

Next Dirk - tall versatile shooting 7 footer (Tkitishvilli, Yi Jianlian etc.)
Next Wade - big slashing PG/SG (Waiters etc.)

Just my take.

I would like to see Cissoko with his national team and GLeague experience scrimmage against the college players.

Absolutely.

It would be great for all the high ceiling guys, the foreign guys, and the guys in weaker conferences to play in the combine...

Unfortunately, agents want to preserve their clients perceived value, and don't want front offices making informed decisions which might negatively impact their pockets.

You see some players play and show out tho (Barnes and Jalen Williams as examples). Let's hope guys like Cissoko and Podz and Bilal etc come to play.

Why would we want those players to play in those scrimmages? We want teams to sleep on them

Also you might end up with Jerryd Bayless Summer League God performances that would be highly misleading.

[WuTang_CMB]

Presti can speak for days. His end of year presser was a good listen. Some thoughts on the draft there.