2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#241 » by MyUniBroDavis » Thu Apr 27, 2023 6:05 am

Doctor MJ wrote:Man oh man, what an incredible night, and fascinating to consider what this does for these awards as well as our GOAT rankings.

Big picture here, the fact that Jimmy isn't already in our Top 100 feels crazy, as I know compare his career to other guys and find myself thinking he might debut pretty dang high... more than a decade into his career.

On this season:

So, now Cavs' on my ballots for EOY or COY, and it's amazing how this reshapes Altman's performance. Part of what impressed me about them was how unorthodox their lineup was, and how well it worked given concerns that felt superficial after the success. But in this playoff series, the Cavs' felt like an all-time draft team stitched together based on individual talent that leaves gaping holes in it.

Last year I thought the Cavs shouldn't have made a deal to get another piece (Lavert) primarily because the team was young and the team should keep playing together and then you could figure things out. At this point though I find myself thinking that the Cavs may need to choose one guard (I'd pick Garland) and one big (I'd pick Mobley) and re-roll on the rest. That's harsh.

Mobley still has a case to be on my DPOY ballot so we'll see what happens there.

Leon Rose is now someone seriously in the running for EOY for me, and Thibs may end up a COY candidate for me...which I frankly didn't expect to ever say again.

With that other completed series:

It's likely that this will knock all Bucks off of all my ballots. Giannis is the biggest name here of course, but the more drastic shift would be Brook who would have gotten my RS DPOY vote.

I find myself wondering whether the Bucks will fire Bud. Were it not for the title they would, but of course, they would have already.

For the Heat, Jimmy is certainly now on my POY ballot and Spo on my COY, and both can reach #1. May be easier for Spo to do it than Jimmy. If the Heat exit in the next round, it's hard for me to fathom putting Jimmy at the top.


It basically depends on how far the heat go for me

If they make the ECF, and Jimmy keeps doing this, he has a good shot at #1 for me
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#242 » by jazzfan1971 » Thu Apr 27, 2023 2:06 pm

Colbinii wrote:
jazzfan1971 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
Appreciate the post, though it didn't end up where I expected.

Sounds like you could be called skeptical about Kessler...but even more skeptical about Banchero.


Well, PF is hard to objectively define. Some guys could be considered Cs or SFs, I tried to be reasonable.

Giannis
Tatum
Durant
Zion
Lebron
Towns
Mobley
JJJ
Lauri
Randall
Siakam
Gordon
Banchero?

I would see Banchero coming in around 11-12th in PF ranks next year. I guess a bit higher if you don't value defense, but I do.


Towns?


fixed
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#243 » by iggymcfrack » Thu Apr 27, 2023 2:36 pm

MyUniBroDavis wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Man oh man, what an incredible night, and fascinating to consider what this does for these awards as well as our GOAT rankings.

Big picture here, the fact that Jimmy isn't already in our Top 100 feels crazy, as I know compare his career to other guys and find myself thinking he might debut pretty dang high... more than a decade into his career.

On this season:

So, now Cavs' on my ballots for EOY or COY, and it's amazing how this reshapes Altman's performance. Part of what impressed me about them was how unorthodox their lineup was, and how well it worked given concerns that felt superficial after the success. But in this playoff series, the Cavs' felt like an all-time draft team stitched together based on individual talent that leaves gaping holes in it.

Last year I thought the Cavs shouldn't have made a deal to get another piece (Lavert) primarily because the team was young and the team should keep playing together and then you could figure things out. At this point though I find myself thinking that the Cavs may need to choose one guard (I'd pick Garland) and one big (I'd pick Mobley) and re-roll on the rest. That's harsh.

Mobley still has a case to be on my DPOY ballot so we'll see what happens there.

Leon Rose is now someone seriously in the running for EOY for me, and Thibs may end up a COY candidate for me...which I frankly didn't expect to ever say again.

With that other completed series:

It's likely that this will knock all Bucks off of all my ballots. Giannis is the biggest name here of course, but the more drastic shift would be Brook who would have gotten my RS DPOY vote.

I find myself wondering whether the Bucks will fire Bud. Were it not for the title they would, but of course, they would have already.

For the Heat, Jimmy is certainly now on my POY ballot and Spo on my COY, and both can reach #1. May be easier for Spo to do it than Jimmy. If the Heat exit in the next round, it's hard for me to fathom putting Jimmy at the top.


It basically depends on how far the heat go for me

If they make the ECF, and Jimmy keeps doing this, he has a good shot at #1 for me


I mean, let's not get crazy. Jokic is about to follow up the GOAT regular season with a Finals MVP, but #2, I'm right there with you.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#244 » by iggymcfrack » Thu Apr 27, 2023 2:39 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Man oh man, what an incredible night, and fascinating to consider what this does for these awards as well as our GOAT rankings.

Big picture here, the fact that Jimmy isn't already in our Top 100 feels crazy, as I know compare his career to other guys and find myself thinking he might debut pretty dang high... more than a decade into his career.

On this season:

So, now Cavs' on my ballots for EOY or COY, and it's amazing how this reshapes Altman's performance. Part of what impressed me about them was how unorthodox their lineup was, and how well it worked given concerns that felt superficial after the success. But in this playoff series, the Cavs' felt like an all-time draft team stitched together based on individual talent that leaves gaping holes in it.

Last year I thought the Cavs shouldn't have made a deal to get another piece (Lavert) primarily because the team was young and the team should keep playing together and then you could figure things out. At this point though I find myself thinking that the Cavs may need to choose one guard (I'd pick Garland) and one big (I'd pick Mobley) and re-roll on the rest. That's harsh.

Mobley still has a case to be on my DPOY ballot so we'll see what happens there.

Leon Rose is now someone seriously in the running for EOY for me, and Thibs may end up a COY candidate for me...which I frankly didn't expect to ever say again.

With that other completed series:

It's likely that this will knock all Bucks off of all my ballots. Giannis is the biggest name here of course, but the more drastic shift would be Brook who would have gotten my RS DPOY vote.

I find myself wondering whether the Bucks will fire Bud. Were it not for the title they would, but of course, they would have already.

For the Heat, Jimmy is certainly now on my POY ballot and Spo on my COY, and both can reach #1. May be easier for Spo to do it than Jimmy. If the Heat exit in the next round, it's hard for me to fathom putting Jimmy at the top.


No Bucks on your ballots at all? What are your top 5 for POY right now? I'd go:

1. Jokic
2. Embiid
3. Jimmy MF Buckets
4. Tatum
5. Giannis

and feel really good about each spot on the list. To be fair, I see this series way less as a Bucks choke and way more as Jimmy just randomly going like peak LeBron playoff God-mode. I think the Celtics are probably the best team in the NBA right now, and I'm not sure they would have got past this Heat team in this series.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#245 » by MyUniBroDavis » Thu Apr 27, 2023 2:48 pm

iggymcfrack wrote:
MyUniBroDavis wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Man oh man, what an incredible night, and fascinating to consider what this does for these awards as well as our GOAT rankings.

Big picture here, the fact that Jimmy isn't already in our Top 100 feels crazy, as I know compare his career to other guys and find myself thinking he might debut pretty dang high... more than a decade into his career.

On this season:

So, now Cavs' on my ballots for EOY or COY, and it's amazing how this reshapes Altman's performance. Part of what impressed me about them was how unorthodox their lineup was, and how well it worked given concerns that felt superficial after the success. But in this playoff series, the Cavs' felt like an all-time draft team stitched together based on individual talent that leaves gaping holes in it.

Last year I thought the Cavs shouldn't have made a deal to get another piece (Lavert) primarily because the team was young and the team should keep playing together and then you could figure things out. At this point though I find myself thinking that the Cavs may need to choose one guard (I'd pick Garland) and one big (I'd pick Mobley) and re-roll on the rest. That's harsh.

Mobley still has a case to be on my DPOY ballot so we'll see what happens there.

Leon Rose is now someone seriously in the running for EOY for me, and Thibs may end up a COY candidate for me...which I frankly didn't expect to ever say again.

With that other completed series:

It's likely that this will knock all Bucks off of all my ballots. Giannis is the biggest name here of course, but the more drastic shift would be Brook who would have gotten my RS DPOY vote.

I find myself wondering whether the Bucks will fire Bud. Were it not for the title they would, but of course, they would have already.

For the Heat, Jimmy is certainly now on my POY ballot and Spo on my COY, and both can reach #1. May be easier for Spo to do it than Jimmy. If the Heat exit in the next round, it's hard for me to fathom putting Jimmy at the top.


It basically depends on how far the heat go for me

If they make the ECF, and Jimmy keeps doing this, he has a good shot at #1 for me


I mean, let's not get crazy. Jokic is about to follow up the GOAT regular season with a Finals MVP, but #2, I'm right there with you.


Disagree in GOAT RS, but yeah prob the best RS

I mean if he does that sure but if he loses in the second round and looks bad defensively again and Jimmy makes the ECF Jimmy jumps him for sure lol
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#246 » by iggymcfrack » Thu Apr 27, 2023 3:03 pm

MyUniBroDavis wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:
MyUniBroDavis wrote:
It basically depends on how far the heat go for me

If they make the ECF, and Jimmy keeps doing this, he has a good shot at #1 for me


I mean, let's not get crazy. Jokic is about to follow up the GOAT regular season with a Finals MVP, but #2, I'm right there with you.


Disagree in GOAT RS, but yeah prob the best RS

I mean if he does that sure but if he loses in the second round and looks bad defensively again and Jimmy makes the ECF Jimmy jumps him for sure lol


My biggest takeaway from the first round in terms of judging the remaining teams is that the Suns are gahbage!!! Straight gahbage I’m telling you!!! Seriously, they ran their old brittle starters into the ground playing NBA Finals minutes against what has to be considered one of the weakest first round opponents in modern history and they still had to squeak by in multiple games. Like even if they stay healthy they’re not that great and they’re just begging for an injury any day now.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#247 » by MyUniBroDavis » Thu Apr 27, 2023 3:23 pm

iggymcfrack wrote:
MyUniBroDavis wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:
I mean, let's not get crazy. Jokic is about to follow up the GOAT regular season with a Finals MVP, but #2, I'm right there with you.


Disagree in GOAT RS, but yeah prob the best RS

I mean if he does that sure but if he loses in the second round and looks bad defensively again and Jimmy makes the ECF Jimmy jumps him for sure lol


My biggest takeaway from the first round in terms of judging the remaining teams is that the Suns are gahbage!!! Straight gahbage I’m telling you!!! Seriously, they ran their old brittle starters into the ground playing NBA Finals minutes against what has to be considered one of the weakest first round opponents in modern history and they still had to squeak by in multiple games. Like even if they stay healthy they’re not that great and they’re just begging for an injury any day now.


I think everyone sucks to be honest

Wouldn’t be suprised with a single result in the west here on out, including the Lakers and warriors choking their 3-2 leads
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#248 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Apr 27, 2023 8:29 pm

iggymcfrack wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:It's likely that this will knock all Bucks off of all my ballots.


No Bucks on your ballots at all? What are your top 5 for POY right now? I'd go:

1. Jokic
2. Embiid
3. Jimmy MF Buckets
4. Tatum
5. Giannis

and feel really good about each spot on the list. To be fair, I see this series way less as a Bucks choke and way more as Jimmy just randomly going like peak LeBron playoff God-mode. I think the Celtics are probably the best team in the NBA right now, and I'm not sure they would have got past this Heat team in this series.


So, first I want to emphasize the tense I used above:

I'm speaking about how my Top 5 will end up more so than focused on what my Top 5 would be right now. So if a guy is #5 right now, but his team is done, it's likely that someone still playing will surpass him.

But there's another thing going on here, my regular season Top 5 was this:

1. Jokic
2. Embiid
3. Tatum
4. Holiday
5. Giannis

So if I slide MF Buckets in now - and my gut was to put him 3rd right now too, but he's certainly ahead of the Bucks' duo - then that would push Jrue to the 5th spot and Giannis off the ballot.

Of course, that was the WTF in my RS ballot. What kind of fool puts Jrue ahead of Giannis?

Thing is, by +/-, Giannis stopped being an RS MVP level force after '19-20 and people largely just ignore this. There were smart people who voted for Giannis as MVP this year on the basis of a) him being the established best player in the world in their opinion, and b) the Bucks having the best record in the league.

But really it's been Jrue who has been the guy who looks like the team's RS MVP this year by +/-, and this is something of a continuation of previous years, so I really don't see any reason to chalk it up to noise.

To be clear: None of this means that I think Jrue was ever more capable of being the Man in the playoffs, but it does mean that he has the lead after the regular season, and if that expected Giannis-led playoff success never comes, then he never gets to surpass Jrue.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#249 » by iggymcfrack » Thu Apr 27, 2023 9:30 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:It's likely that this will knock all Bucks off of all my ballots.


No Bucks on your ballots at all? What are your top 5 for POY right now? I'd go:

1. Jokic
2. Embiid
3. Jimmy MF Buckets
4. Tatum
5. Giannis

and feel really good about each spot on the list. To be fair, I see this series way less as a Bucks choke and way more as Jimmy just randomly going like peak LeBron playoff God-mode. I think the Celtics are probably the best team in the NBA right now, and I'm not sure they would have got past this Heat team in this series.


So, first I want to emphasize the tense I used above:

I'm speaking about how my Top 5 will end up more so than focused on what my Top 5 would be right now. So if a guy is #5 right now, but his team is done, it's likely that someone still playing will surpass him.

But there's another thing going on here, my regular season Top 5 was this:

1. Jokic
2. Embiid
3. Tatum
4. Holiday
5. Giannis

So if I slide MF Buckets in now - and my gut was to put him 3rd right now too, but he's certainly ahead of the Bucks' duo - then that would push Jrue to the 5th spot and Giannis off the ballot.

Of course, that was the WTF in my RS ballot. What kind of fool puts Jrue ahead of Giannis?

Thing is, by +/-, Giannis stopped being an RS MVP level force after '19-20 and people largely just ignore this. There were smart people who voted for Giannis as MVP this year on the basis of a) him being the established best player in the world in their opinion, and b) the Bucks having the best record in the league.

But really it's been Jrue who has been the guy who looks like the team's RS MVP this year by +/-, and this is something of a continuation of previous years, so I really don't see any reason to chalk it up to noise.

To be clear: None of this means that I think Jrue was ever more capable of being the Man in the playoffs, but it does mean that he has the lead after the regular season, and if that expected Giannis-led playoff success never comes, then he never gets to surpass Jrue.


I was higher on Jrue and lower on Giannis than most people this year for the exact same reasons you mentioned, but Jrue as a top 5 player in the league still feels a little nuts with his box score profile being the exact same it was the last couple years. I just don’t see where the skills add up. His playmaking’s good, but not that good. And even if he’s the best defensive perimeter player on the league, he’s not like a prime-Kawhi level stopper. Like you say though, I’m sure he’s falling with the Bucks being out.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#250 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Apr 27, 2023 10:41 pm

iggymcfrack wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:
No Bucks on your ballots at all? What are your top 5 for POY right now? I'd go:

1. Jokic
2. Embiid
3. Jimmy MF Buckets
4. Tatum
5. Giannis

and feel really good about each spot on the list. To be fair, I see this series way less as a Bucks choke and way more as Jimmy just randomly going like peak LeBron playoff God-mode. I think the Celtics are probably the best team in the NBA right now, and I'm not sure they would have got past this Heat team in this series.


So, first I want to emphasize the tense I used above:

I'm speaking about how my Top 5 will end up more so than focused on what my Top 5 would be right now. So if a guy is #5 right now, but his team is done, it's likely that someone still playing will surpass him.

But there's another thing going on here, my regular season Top 5 was this:

1. Jokic
2. Embiid
3. Tatum
4. Holiday
5. Giannis

So if I slide MF Buckets in now - and my gut was to put him 3rd right now too, but he's certainly ahead of the Bucks' duo - then that would push Jrue to the 5th spot and Giannis off the ballot.

Of course, that was the WTF in my RS ballot. What kind of fool puts Jrue ahead of Giannis?

Thing is, by +/-, Giannis stopped being an RS MVP level force after '19-20 and people largely just ignore this. There were smart people who voted for Giannis as MVP this year on the basis of a) him being the established best player in the world in their opinion, and b) the Bucks having the best record in the league.

But really it's been Jrue who has been the guy who looks like the team's RS MVP this year by +/-, and this is something of a continuation of previous years, so I really don't see any reason to chalk it up to noise.

To be clear: None of this means that I think Jrue was ever more capable of being the Man in the playoffs, but it does mean that he has the lead after the regular season, and if that expected Giannis-led playoff success never comes, then he never gets to surpass Jrue.


I was higher on Jrue and lower on Giannis than most people this year for the exact same reasons you mentioned, but Jrue as a top 5 player in the league still feels a little nuts with his box score profile being the exact same it was the last couple years. I just don’t see where the skills add up. His playmaking’s good, but not that good. And even if he’s the best defensive perimeter player on the league, he’s not like a prime-Kawhi level stopper. Like you say though, I’m sure he’s falling with the Bucks being out.


So first, as we both say, quite unlikely Jrue ends up in my Top 5 when all is said and done, so that's not a hill I'm looking to die on.

And you're certainly right about it being seen as "nuts" to put Jrue over Giannis, but this is where I emphasize:

It's not about "Who is best?" so much as "Who has accomplished most for their team?".

If I have two teammates, and one has a recurring trend of being more impressive by various +/- measures to the point where noise doesn't seem like a plausible explanation, then that's basically that.

I think if you just take Giannis out of the equation and ask "Do you really think Jrue was more valuable than all but 3 other guys this year?", that's a great question to dig into. One thing I should make clear there is that it matters to me when doing regular season analysis that a particular team has the best record in the league. If you're the most valuable player over a season on the team with the best record, while that shouldn't clinch a Top 5 spot, I think it's important not to dismiss such a person lightly simply because that person doesn't have extreme box score stats.

And in this year, I think there's a looming question of "Who do you pick other than than Jokic, Embiid & Tatum?". For most, I think the answer is Luka, but I'll flat out say that I have more confidence in Jrue's ability to help a team win a title than Luka right now, and then there's the damage I see Luka doing to the franchise he's on. As I always say - I see Luka's talent and I'm not betting against his future, but I think the basketball world has really overreacted to his productivity. It's certainly impressive that he can put up the volume of numbers he does, but if that's not actually how he's going to need to play to get the most out of co-starring talent, then it's considerably less of a competitive achievement than the box score all-in-ones would suggest.

Beyond Luka, you've got so many guys who missed so much time. Steph, Dame, Book, JJJ, etc - all of these are guys who come to mind as seeming like they should be ahead of Jrue to me, but with the time missed, I'm afraid they're going to need to earn those spots with playoff performance.

Let me speak to one other thing:

One thing people have different perspectives on is how to normalize for context in the sense that if a player has very strong +/- indicators in a particular context, but seems likely to be extremely dependent on that context, should he be ranked below someone more likely to thrive in a random context?

If we're just talking about "best player", that's an easier thing for me to get behind, but if we're talking about achievement, well, context influences opportunity and thus achievement.

I don't want to overreact to +/- indicators of impact in a small sample of course, but if a player is the critical piece on a team that achieves great success, to me that's a big deal.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#251 » by Texas Chuck » Thu Apr 27, 2023 11:48 pm

Jrue can't carry a team. Giannis can and has. I think we are putting way too much stock into +/- to remotely suggest Jrue is the more valuable/better player.

But I realize we are in full on dismiss Giannis season atm so I'm not surprised. Plus I know how much Doc weighs plus minus stats over anything else.

But I think plus/minus is so role driven and shouldn't be used to define goodness or value to a team. Those players who have to carry immense weights for their team who have marginal plus minuses shouldn't be so readily dismissed especially for a player who is able to focus only on what he does well and doesn't have to continually do more to keep his team going.

It's not quite as silly as the Danny Green better defender than Tim Duncan position being driven by plus/minus, but I don't think its really defensible. Sorry Doc.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#252 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Apr 28, 2023 12:42 am

Texas Chuck wrote:Jrue can't carry a team. Giannis can and has. I think we are putting way too much stock into +/- to remotely suggest Jrue is the more valuable/better player.

But I realize we are in full on dismiss Giannis season atm so I'm not surprised. Plus I know how much Doc weighs plus minus stats over anything else.

But I think plus/minus is so role driven and shouldn't be used to define goodness or value to a team. Those players who have to carry immense weights for their team who have marginal plus minuses shouldn't be so readily dismissed especially for a player who is able to focus only on what he does well and doesn't have to continually do more to keep his team going.

It's not quite as silly as the Danny Green better defender than Tim Duncan position being driven by plus/minus, but I don't think its really defensible. Sorry Doc.


I'd put it this way:

Once +/- data has sufficient sample, I think it's important to look at discrepant results and try to explain them.

Forget about the actual "Who is more valuable?" question for a second:

Here are Giannis' raw +/- numbers, along with the best on his team, over the past 5 regular seasons:

'18-19 +648 (Brook 2nd with +575)
'19-20 +682 (Brook 2nd with +526)
'20-21 +409 (Jrue 2nd with +379)
'21-22 +397 (Jrue 1st with +426)
'22-23 +341 (Jrue 1st with +481)

Obviously that's raw and simplistic, so here's some RAPM data from nbashotcharts.com:

'18-19 +3.22 (Bledsoe 2nd with +2.49)
'19-20 +4.72 (Hill 2nd with +2.53)
'20-21 +2.17 (Jrue 2nd with +2.01)
'21-22 +2.42 (Jrue 1st with +3.41)
'22-23 +2.14 (Jrue 1st with +3.45)

Harder to search the same way with multi-year models, but suffice to say that Jrue has the clear lead in the 3-year RAPM, which is the duration he's been there.

To me what all this is saying pretty clearly is that:

1) Giannis is not generating +/- based impact in the regular season like he used to.
2) Jrue is generating more +/- based impact in the regular season than Giannis.

So now the big question is "Why?".

I'll say flat out:

1) I don't think Giannis has actually become a less capable basketball player.
2) I don't think Jrue is as capable of a basketball player as Giannis.

But that still leaves us with the question of "Why?" - people focused on player ranking within a team context may find it moot, but there's still enough going on that it seems clear something has change. What?

I've given some thoughts in the past, but I'd rather just hear what others have to say, and then from there, we can have the conversation of whether it makes sense to effectively pretend that the change never happened when ranking MVP candidates or not.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#253 » by Statlanta » Fri Apr 28, 2023 3:56 am

Jrue Holiday was the starting SG in the playoffs against the 2018 Warriors. I mean this to say that even though he can't carry a team he is certainly qualified in a role of lead ball handler and secondary hub in tense situations even with his bad shooting numbers. Being in that situation was more than anything Giannis or Middleton for that matter did prior to their teamup so I can imagine why Jrue's numbers look better than Giannis despite being in a lesser role.

Jalen Brunson can just become an All-Star in the East, Derrick White can supplant Marcus Smart in impact, Mikal Bridges can suddenly provide All-Star level playoff production. I think there's only one phenomenon happening here.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#254 » by Jaivl » Fri Apr 28, 2023 7:24 am

Still early, but if things continue as they are I'm leaning

1. Jokic
2. Butler
3. Giannis
4. Embiid
5. Tatum

right now. Curry and Davis right there ready to pounce, Giannis with no shot at #1 barring ridiculous collapses from Jokic.

In terms of GOAThood, Giannis jumping from the mid 30s into the mid-high 20s, and projecting Butler from the low 70s into the low 50s (not having Butler as top 100 in 2022 is asisine and you should feel bad).
And most importantly, Jrue Holiday going from 140ish to 110ish.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#255 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Apr 28, 2023 4:08 pm

Jaivl wrote: projecting Butler from the low 70s into the low 50s (not having Butler as top 100 in 2022 is asisine and you should feel bad).


To be clear, the last Top 100 was in 2020, three seasons ago.

I still think we're going to be discussing why we didn't take Jimmy as seriously as we should have back then in discussions to come - as I think he clearly had a good case for the 2020 project - but without looking back at that project, here are my thoughts:

1. While Butler's exit from the Timberwolves in 2018 is now seen as part of his legend, it was extremely unprofessional behavior that ended up screwing over Thibs - who was the coach that gave Jimmy his big break - and left teams feeling like Butler was someone who could not be counted on to be a franchise player, regardless of his talent level.

2. While Butler impressed with Philly in the playoffs, it was in the end a 2nd round exit for a team that was capable of getting to the 2nd round without him.

3. While Butler leading the Heat to the Finals was clearly a major accomplishment, and the peak of his achievement at that time, there was concern that it was a fluke caused by the weirdness of Covid and the Bubble. Further, as great as that performance was, it wasn't the kind of consistent domination that Butler has pulled off in the last two playoffs.

Again, not saying it was right for him to miss that Top 100 in retrospect, but there was still a lot of uncertainty about just how real Playoff Jimmy was at that time.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#256 » by kayess » Sat Apr 29, 2023 4:41 am

All these all-timer games from Butler is just him significantly outperforming his usual midrange %. It's just not who he is the same way hyper efficient 30++ games are from Durant for example.

All credit to him, he has an insane handful of all-time playoff heaters, but it's just insane shooting variance to me right now.

Doesn't mean he can't make top 100, but what he's doing has to be discounted as an aberration and you ahve to believe everything else he does 99% of the time makes up for it
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#257 » by iggymcfrack » Sat Apr 29, 2023 5:47 am

What an incredibly dominant performance from Davis on the defensive end tonight. If he stays healthy through the next round and plays close to this well, I don’t see how I wouldn’t give him DPOY. He’s probably had twice the impact of anyone else this playoffs. He single-handedly wrecked the Grizzlies tonight.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#258 » by MyUniBroDavis » Sat Apr 29, 2023 9:27 am

kayess wrote:All these all-timer games from Butler is just him significantly outperforming his usual midrange %. It's just not who he is the same way hyper efficient 30++ games are from Durant for example.

All credit to him, he has an insane handful of all-time playoff heaters, but it's just insane shooting variance to me right now.

Doesn't mean he can't make top 100, but what he's doing has to be discounted as an aberration and you ahve to believe everything else he does 99% of the time makes up for it



He’s shooting around the same percentage outside of 10 feet, and I think it’s obvious he’s hot considering he had one of the best series we’ve seen lol

What actually happens matters in the playoffs more than a hypothetical replay lol
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#259 » by Colbinii » Sat Apr 29, 2023 3:57 pm

iggymcfrack wrote:What an incredibly dominant performance from Davis on the defensive end tonight. If he stays healthy through the next round and plays close to this well, I don’t see how I wouldn’t give him DPOY. He’s probably had twice the impact of anyone else this playoffs. He single-handedly wrecked the Grizzlies tonight.


He has been great for parts of the first round series and in the other parts he is down-right GOAT level as a defender. He has been everywhere on the court and putting him at Center truly did unlock a level for him defensively, allowing him to 100% of the time camp and roam in the paint.

I hope the Bucks and Giannis are able to do this as well. Giannis may never be the same defender as AD but he could replicate a large amount of what AD does as a Center.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#260 » by MyUniBroDavis » Sat Apr 29, 2023 4:35 pm

AD isn’t gonna replicate this performance vs other teams because memphis really just saw AD in drop and thought the best solution was to keep going at him till like gane 5 ish

I think he’ll be better on D vs the warriors than the kings, but offensively he’ll be better vs the kings

What makes this rendition of AD so useful is that he’s so versatile defensively too

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