The Official 2023 Draft Thread

[NatP4]

When we talk about very poor value, we should revisit:

Cade Cunningham over Jalen Suggs
Jaden Ivey over Shaedon Sharpe
Jabari Smith over Keegan Murray
Jonathan Kuminga over Franz Wagner
James Wiseman over Lamelo Ball

There’s a huge miss in the top 4 every year. Wembanyama is NOT the huge miss this year.

In 2019, #4 overall was trade for #8, #17, and #35. This is the best example. Makes it very obvious that 2 COULD get you 9/16/28.

In 2018, 3rd overall was traded for #5 and #10 in the following draft.

[Rafael122]

9/16/28 from Utah.

Hands down that’s what I’m doing if I land 2/3/4. I would only consider picking Ausar at one of those picks. I think he has superstar upside, but I’d rather have 9/16/28.

Utah can take Scoot, who I do think will be a good player, but I’m taking Coulibaly/Cissoko/Podziemski. They will all continue to rise into those slots.

Trading down 7 spots from the 2nd pick for a mid and late 1st seems like ***very poor value***. Especially when your (3) picks all projected to go late 1st/early 2nd. I could see Coulibaly going high as mid-1st but the other two are late 1sts at best.

Its fine wanting your guys. I'm not trading a rare top 2 pick to go mid-level prospect hunting. If I did love a guy later in draft, i'd probably try to use other assets outside a top 2 pick to try to make it happen.

It seems like it's a 6-7 person draft, I'm fine staying put if we land in the top 7.

[payitforward]

Trading down 7 spots from the 2nd pick for a mid and late 1st seems like ***very poor value***....

You sure about that, Dat? I.e. have you looked at it historically?

For the dozen drafts from 2020 back to 2009, here are the #2 picks vs. the #9 & #16 picks -- not even including the #28, which Nat imagines he can also get!

I've bolded what I think was clearly the better result.


2020: James Wiseman vs. Deni Avdija & Isaiah Stewart
2019: Ja Morant vs. Rui Hachimura & Chuma Okeke
2018: [Marvin Bagley vs. Kevin Knox & Zhaire Smith
2017: [Lonzo Ball vs. Dennis Smith Jr. & Justin Patton
2016: [Brandon Ingram vs. Jakob Poeltl & Guerschon Yabusele
2015: [D’Angelo Russell vs. Frank Kaminsky & Terry Rozier
2014: [Jabari Parker vs. Noah Vonleh & Jusuf Nurkic
2013: [Victor Oladipo x vs. Trey Burke & Lucas Nogueira
2012: [Michael Kidd-Gilchrist vs. Andre Drummond & Royce White
2011: [Derrick Williams vs. Kemba Walker & Nikola Vucevic
2010: [Evan Turner vs. Gordon Hayward & Luke Babbitt
2009: [Hasheem Thabeet vs. DeMar DeRozan & James Johnson

Looks like 9 & 16 has the edge over 2. Of course, if I were also to add the guys still on the board at #28 each year, it would look totally lop-sided in favor of the trade down which you call poor value.

But, "on the board" doesn't equal "picked," so that would be completely unfair. Hence I won't mention DeAndre Jordan, Goran Dragic, or Luc Mbah a Moute -- all sitting there on the board at 28. In a single year, btw.

[pcbothwel]

In any case, you're not getting 9, 16 & 28 for 2. Not even if this year, speculatively, #2 has special value. & especially not from a rebuilding team like Utah -- & double-especially not from Danny Ainge!

For that matter, 3 is not likely to bring 9 & 16. It might well bring, 9 & 28 plus a high R2 pick -- but Utah doesn't have one of those.

Hard disagree. Maybe we have to throw in 42&59 to get 28 back.

2/42/59 for 9/16/28 maybe. Utah is absolutely a rebuilding team, that wants to add what they probably view as a “core building block” and marketable player like Scoot Henderson.

That is a very realistic trade

Wait... what the hell am I reading?!?
PIF, you and I had this disagreement before. You overvalue late 1st compared to what the market actually is. Remember 2021 when you were convinced the early 2nds from OKC (34 & 36) were worth a pick in the early 20's? I do. But they traded them to NYK for 32...Not 22.

2018: The Hawks traded 3 (Doncic) to the Mavs for 5 (Young) and a future 1st (Top 5 protection Only. This is KEY)
2019: The Hawks traded with NOP to get Hunter. In order to get to #4, they traded 8, 17, and a future 1st.

So... moving from #2 to 4/5 would garner us a future 1st with top protection. Then trading from 4/5 would get you 8-10, 16-20, plus another protected 1st.
Therefore, the #2 overall pick should get the following:
#8-10
#16-20
2024 1st (Top 5 protection)
2024 1st (Lotto protection)

What am I missing?

[payitforward]

Wait... what the hell am I reading?!?
PIF, you and I had this disagreement before. You overvalue late 1st compared to what the market actually is. Remember 2021 when you were convinced the early 2nds from OKC (34 & 36) were worth a pick in the early 20's? I do. But they traded them to NYK for 32...Not 22....

In this case, you are misremembering: I made the point that we could have traded #31 (the pick we used on Todd) to OKC for 34 & 36, my evidence being the trade you mention.

(I did have some interest in whether it would have made sense to trade our #9 & the #37 we had from Chicago for the Knicks' #19, #21 & #32 -- but I concluded that they'd be unlikely to go for it).

Edit -- the point of the latter idea was that I was already ready to rebuild totally. I definitely wanted to stock up on young guys. I think I even made fun of myself at one point by posting a set of moves that would get us 7 rookies!

[pcbothwel]

Trading down 7 spots from the 2nd pick for a mid and late 1st seems like ***very poor value***....

You sure about that, Dat? I.e. have you looked at it historically?

Have you?
Listen, we can all sit here and talk about draft strategy and value of picks. But that is different than what they yield in the market.

This is like me stating I believe Kuzma will get 25M+ in FA, and you then stating, "Are you crazy, Kuzma is worth half that". I didnt say what someone SHOULD pay for Kuz, I stated what he WILL get given the market/precedent.

[pcbothwel]

Wait... what the hell am I reading?!?
PIF, you and I had this disagreement before. You overvalue late 1st compared to what the market actually is. Remember 2021 when you were convinced the early 2nds from OKC (34 & 36) were worth a pick in the early 20's? I do. But they traded them to NYK for 32...Not 22....

In this case, you are misremembering: I made the point that we could have traded #31 (the pick we used on Todd) to OKC for 34 & 36, my evidence being the trade you mention.

(I did have some interest in whether it would have made sense to trade our #9 & the #37 we had from Chicago for the Knicks' #19, #21 & #32 -- but I concluded that they'd be unlikely to go for it).

Edit -- the point of the latter idea was that I was already ready to rebuild totally. I definitely wanted to stock up on young guys. I think I even made fun of myself at one point by posting a set of moves that would get us 7 rookies!

Would you like me to show you no less than a dozen times in one draft thread where you stated with absolute certainly what picks were worth?
Me, and others, suggested a trade where we traded with OKC from 15 to 18 while getting back 34

For that matter, 15 doesn't get you 18 & 35.
15 also doesn't get you 19 & 32.

Again, Last year the Twolves traded 19 for 22 & 29. How many times does this need to be shown to you?

[payitforward]

Trading down 7 spots from the 2nd pick for a mid and late 1st seems like ***very poor value***....

You sure about that, Dat? I.e. have you looked at it historically?

Have you?...

Dat is questioning Nat's proposal of a trade in which we take 9 for 2, & in return we also get 16 & 28 -- he says that "seems like very poor value."

See my post a few above, in which I looked at the "value" question. It turns out that from 2009-2020 even just 2 for 9 & 16 would have been an advantageous trade in just over 1/2 of the drafts. Obviously, adding 28 only makes it more so.

[gambitx777]

I agree with piff here. There are drafts tmwhere the top 5 is stacked and really solid so you wouldn't really bother trading back. But this draft I believe is a trade back draft.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

[NatP4]

Just looking at the results of #2-4 over the years:

2021:
2: Jalen Green
3: Evan Mobley
4: Scottie Barnes

2020:
2: James Wiseman
3: Lamelo Ball
4: Patrick Williams

2019:
2: Ja Morant
3: RJ Barrett
4: Deandre Hunter

2018:
2: Marvin Bagley
3: Luka Doncic
4: Jaren Jackson Jr

2017:
2: Lonzo Ball
3: Jayson Tatum
4: Josh Jackson

2016:
2: Brandon Ingram
3: Jaylen Brown
4: Dragan Bender

2015:
2: Deangelo Russell
3: Jahlil Okafor
4: Kristaps Porzingis

I see 7 major “hits” out of 21 picks. A few other rotation players, and about 9 major busts. Atleast one significant bust in that range in every draft.

[dckingsfan]

Given that we need a "big" 3 player, what is the best strategy?

[NatP4]

2014: Jabari Parker
2013: Cody Zeller
2012: Dion Waiters
In 2011, the entire 2/3/4 range were all busts.
2010: same thing, although Favors had a decent career. Turner and Wesley Johnson were definitely busts
2009: HASHEEM THABEET!!
2008: Michael Beasley&OJ Mayo
2007: trend is broken: Durant/Horford/Conley all good
2006: Adam F’ing Morrison
2005: Marvin Williams
2004: Emeka Okafor and Shaun Livingston

2/3/4 consistently produces busts.

[pcbothwel]

You sure about that, Dat? I.e. have you looked at it historically?

Have you?...

Dat is questioning Nat's proposal of a trade in which we take 9 for 2, & in return we also get 16 & 28 -- he says that "seems like very poor value."

See my post a few above, in which I looked at the "value" question. It turns out that from 2009-2020 even just 2 for 9 & 16 would have been an advantageous trade in just over 1/2 of the drafts. Obviously, adding 28 only makes it more so.

And I was not trying to be contentious. I just think every year we all conflate projected future value/production with the market value.
You maybe right, but I think Nat is saying there is ZERO reason to move out of the top 3/4 unless someone is willing to pay at least the historical market value. And I agree.

I am a big fan of using the Hawks trade(s) as a precedent. I.e. Trade pick 2/3 to a team in the top 8 that is looking for the final cornerstone piece. In exchange, we get their 2024 1st with top 5 protection.
Reasoning: We move down 3-6 spots in exchange for a single high ceiling asset. The other team bets on the fact that Scott/Miller is the final piece and will be competing for playoff spot next year. Houston, Charlotte, Orlando, and the Pacers all seem like teams in this bucket. I.e. Rebuilding teams that are looking to make their final investment into their core for the next 5-7 years.

I would then follow up that trade with a Hawks circa 2019 trade down by moving pick 6-9 and getting 3 picks.
- pick in the 17-22 range
- A pick in the 27-34 range
- A future 1st with heavy protection

Miami, Brooklyn, Houston, etc. look like candidates this year.

[NatP4]

Given that we need a "big" 3 player, what is the best strategy?

Be like the Knicks. They have 4 outstanding players in Hart, Brunson, Robinson, and Quickley.

Brunson: picked 33rd overall

Hart: picked 30th overall

Quickley: picked 25th overall

Robinson: 36th overall

[NatP4]

Dat is stating that 2 for 9/16/28 is bad value.

PIF is stating that #2 would not return 9/16/28, but that it would be good value if possible(I think).

I am stating that 2 CAN return 9/16/28 and that it would incredibly great value in this particular draft.

[payitforward]

Would you like me to show you no less than a dozen times in one draft thread where you stated with absolute certainly what picks were worth?...

If you please, can we lower the rhetorical level slightly?

This...

Me, and others, suggested a trade where we traded with OKC from 15 to 18 while getting back 34

For that matter, 15 doesn't get you 18 & 35.
15 also doesn't get you 19 & 32.

...

...is a strongly stated opinion -- not "absolute certainty" -- about "what picks are worth." Still, it's also a case where I too could have lowered the rhetorical level slightly!

For the record, there can be no such thing as "absolute certainty" about what picks are worth. Hence, it would have been better for me to have written "I don't see how 15 can get you 18 & 35," & henceforth I promise to put it that way. Ok?

But, this...

Again, Last year the Twolves traded 19 for 22 & 29...

...is not quite accurate: Memphis also got a future R2 pick in the deal.

Still, Minny still made an extremely solid move there. Note that a few minutes after making that trade, Minny proceeded to trade the 29 they'd just picked up to Houston for the 26 (which had come to Houston from Dallas in the Christian Wood trade), giving up another R2 pick.

Thus, overall, they traded the 19 & two future R2 picks for the 22 & 26.

(Then they traded Walker Kessler, the guy they got at 22, to Utah in the Gobert trade. )

[payitforward]

And I was not trying to be contentious....

No worries -- & I'm not trying to be a know it all either!

[dckingsfan]

Given that we need a "big" 3 player, what is the best strategy?

Be like the Knicks. They have 4 outstanding players in Hart, Brunson, Robinson, and Quickley.

Brunson: picked 33rd overall

Hart: picked 30th overall

Quickley: picked 25th overall

Robinson: 36th overall

I don't think that an anecdotal example like that is a strategy. Especially since the Knicks didn't pick Brunson or Hart?

From this example, you would say to trade for those types of players - not necessarily draft them?

Also, wouldn't it depend on the strength of the draft in any given draft year?

[NatP4]

Given that we need a "big" 3 player, what is the best strategy?

Be like the Knicks. They have 4 outstanding players in Hart, Brunson, Robinson, and Quickley.

Brunson: picked 33rd overall

Hart: picked 30th overall

Quickley: picked 25th overall

Robinson: 36th overall

I don't think that an anecdotal example like that is a strategy. Especially since the Knicks didn't pick Brunson or Hart?

From this example, you would say to trade for those types of players - not necessarily draft them?

Also, wouldn't it depend on the strength of the draft?

Agreed.

But I guess if I have a point it is this: you can build a quality playoff team with players picked later in the draft.

Miami: Butler (30th) Adebayo (14th)

NY: Brunson (33), Hart (30), Quickley (25), Robinson (36)

Denver: Jokic (41), Murray (7), Porter Jr (14)

Lakers: Reaves (undrafted) Vanderbilt (41)

Suns: Booker (13)

Warriors: Curry (7), Thompson (11), Green (35), Looney (30)

Celtics: White (29), Brogdon (36), Smart (6)

Of course, you have Lebron, Tatum, Harden, Embiid, Paul, and Davis that all went top 5.

[DCZards]

2014: Jabari Parker
2013: Cody Zeller
2012: Dion Waiters
In 2011, the entire 2/3/4 range were all busts.
2010: same thing, although Favors had a decent career. Turner and Wesley Johnson were definitely busts
2009: HASHEEM THABEET!!
2008: Michael Beasley&OJ Mayo
2007: trend is broken: Durant/Horford/Conley all good
2006: Adam F’ing Morrison
2005: Marvin Williams
2004: Emeka Okafor and Shaun Livingston

2/3/4 consistently produces busts.

OTOH, 2/3/4 have produced some outstanding players over the last 20 years, including Morant, Luka, Jaren Jackson, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Brandon Ingram, Beal, KP, Embiid, Harden, Westbrook, Durant, Chris Paul.

Several of these guys have been All-NBA players and 5-6 are surefire HOFers.

I'm not against trading back but if I'm sitting at 2, 3 or 4 I'm just as likely to take a chance on a Miller, Scoot or one of the Thompson twins.