2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

Moderators: Clyde Frazier, Doctor MJ, trex_8063, penbeast0, PaulieWal

User avatar
LA Bird
Analyst
Posts: 3,663
And1: 3,453
Joined: Feb 16, 2015

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#261 » by LA Bird » Sat Apr 29, 2023 11:47 pm

Jaivl wrote:In terms of GOAThood, Giannis jumping from the mid 30s into the mid-high 20s, and projecting Butler from the low 70s into the low 50s (not having Butler as top 100 in 2022 is asisine and you should feel bad).
And most importantly, Jrue Holiday going from 140ish to 110ish.

Don't know if I am overracting to Butler's latest series but I feel like he could climb even higher than 50. Frazier is usually ranked around 30 and I don't see him having too big of an advantage at this point over Butler in terms of all round ability, defense, playoffs performance, or longevity.
MyUniBroDavis
General Manager
Posts: 7,827
And1: 5,034
Joined: Jan 14, 2013

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#262 » by MyUniBroDavis » Sun Apr 30, 2023 12:08 am

LA Bird wrote:
Jaivl wrote:In terms of GOAThood, Giannis jumping from the mid 30s into the mid-high 20s, and projecting Butler from the low 70s into the low 50s (not having Butler as top 100 in 2022 is asisine and you should feel bad).
And most importantly, Jrue Holiday going from 140ish to 110ish.

Don't know if I am overracting to Butler's latest series but I feel like he could climb even higher than 50. Frazier is usually ranked around 30 and I don't see him having too big of an advantage at this point over Butler in terms of all round ability, defense, playoffs performance, or longevity.


For me a thing about Jimmy is just, if he keeps doing playoff Jimmy things then you gotta evaluate his seasons differently right?

Like if he goes to the ECF or the finals, and keeps this pace up, that’s one of the greatest runs ever right? If he wins the finals, well then damn let’s think of a better run than that?

It’s really early to say of course but what he did against that defence was crazy, I’m assuming he comes back down to earth but if he doesn’t he should be getting POY talks imo
AEnigma
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,130
And1: 5,978
Joined: Jul 24, 2022

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#263 » by AEnigma » Sun Apr 30, 2023 1:24 am

MyUniBroDavis wrote:
LA Bird wrote:
Jaivl wrote:In terms of GOAThood, Giannis jumping from the mid 30s into the mid-high 20s, and projecting Butler from the low 70s into the low 50s (not having Butler as top 100 in 2022 is asisine and you should feel bad).
And most importantly, Jrue Holiday going from 140ish to 110ish.

Don't know if I am overracting to Butler's latest series but I feel like he could climb even higher than 50. Frazier is usually ranked around 30 and I don't see him having too big of an advantage at this point over Butler in terms of all round ability, defense, playoffs performance, or longevity.

For me a thing about Jimmy is just, if he keeps doing playoff Jimmy things then you gotta evaluate his seasons differently right?

Like if he goes to the ECF or the finals, and keeps this pace up, that’s one of the greatest runs ever right? If he wins the finals, well then damn let’s think of a better run than that?

It’s really early to say of course but what he did against that defence was crazy, I’m assuming he comes back down to earth but if he doesn’t he should be getting POY talks imo

Frazier is an interesting name to bring up because his merits relative to Butler’s were the subject of some animated conversation during the peaks project.

70sFan wrote:
Proxy wrote:
AEnigma wrote:Could you weigh in on why you have Frazier so far ahead of Butler? You have swayed me on players in the past, so you seem like the best bet to do so here lol. Seems like a given you prefer Frazier’s offence, but I mean more specifically in what ways.

In a gist I greatly prefer Frazier's ability and relability when it comes to breaking down defenses from what i've seen, he doesn't have Jimmy's strength, but I believe his speed and handle to be much better. His mid-range scoring attack specifically felt Wade-esque to me in many regards(especially the foul drawing lol), and ability to get to those spots(though ofc he's not close to Wade in that regard).

I mentioned it before, but I am really not big on 2022 Jimmy's offense, I think the lack of shooting(i'd say even worse than Frazier) especially has hurt his offensive impact in the modern NBA with how teams opted to guard him in the playoffs.

Good impact signals sure, he was still pretty good ofc, but the Heat playoffs offense looked extremely unimpressive to me and had me wondering if even the more pedestrian level they performed at was sustainable - the lack of advantage creation and early offense attacking that normally would exist from Lowry REALLY hurt, and I said before how I felt Jimmy wasn't really demanding the level of attention you'd expect from someone with his scoring profile either that run, feel alot of times teams were fine with him beating them in mostly single coverage in isolation, guarding pick and rolls with only two defenders, and restricting the Heat's overall team O.

If Jimmy retained some of the shooting and self-creation ability he had back in 2017-ish(I do think of him as a better passer now), i'd probably feel better about voting him in my top 50. Maybe i'm undervaluing the extent he is still able to warp defenses now even with his problems(he's also still a very good off ball player even with his shooting limitations which I don't want to go unnoticed), and I could somewhat see why people would vote him in around now with more confidence in there.

Anyways with the offense and defense preferences(I will say I think alot of the defense advantage his era related, but i've been mostly ranking players based on what I perceive their in-era impact as), it ends up with a pretty big separation ranking wise for me though i'd say my ranges for the two almost overlap.

It would probably be easier to explain if I did a film breakdown on Jimmy(the above stuff could easily look like i'm just talking out of my ass lol), but if i'm being honest I don't really have the time or interest in doing so for him atm, i'll probably be done voting when the players currently on my ballot are all in.

I think you nailed it, Frazier's superior combination of handles and shooting gives him a clear advantage over Butler to me. Both players are crafty and could fake out his defenders to draw fouls, but Frazier's midrange game made him more resilient in the postseason that Butler, who is quite inconsistent in the playoffs.

If we take a look at their 5 years primes and compare their scoring numbers in the playoffs, Frazier does look comfortably ahead:

1970-75 Frazier: 20 pp75 on +8 rTS%
2018-22 Butler: 22 pp75 on +4 rTS%

If we change the sample to 3 years prime, Frazier still gets the edge:

1971-73 Frazier: 20.4 pp75 on +8.4 rTS%
2020-22 Butler: 23.5 pp75 on +4.0 rTS%

If we actually look at each series year after year, Frazier never had as horrible series as some of Butler's worst performances. It's not like Frazier didn't face quality defenses either, Lakers and Celtics were all-time great defenses that were well equipped to deal with someone like Frazier.

Casting aside how people factor rings in these conversations — for myself, I was generally upfront about wanting to give some deference to older guys who drove title teams even if I did not necessarily think they could replicate those achievements in later eras — having back-to-back strong playoff runs would go a long way to countering that idea of inconsistency.

As an achievement, I do think it matters that Butler can now claim one of the greatest series performances in league history; that upset has immortalised him in much the same extent as 1994 Dikembe, except with box score production mimicking 1976 Julius Erving. Mind you, two months ago I wrote this:
AEnigma wrote:I am not really convinced Butler could not replicate Julius Erving’s prime if transposed to the 1970s, but Erving was the one who actually achieved that level of success for himself.

At this point I am even more emphatically convinced he could lol.
kayess
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,807
And1: 1,000
Joined: Sep 29, 2013

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#264 » by kayess » Sun Apr 30, 2023 4:24 am

MyUniBroDavis wrote:
kayess wrote:All these all-timer games from Butler is just him significantly outperforming his usual midrange %. It's just not who he is the same way hyper efficient 30++ games are from Durant for example.

All credit to him, he has an insane handful of all-time playoff heaters, but it's just insane shooting variance to me right now.

Doesn't mean he can't make top 100, but what he's doing has to be discounted as an aberration and you ahve to believe everything else he does 99% of the time makes up for it



He’s shooting around the same percentage outside of 10 feet, and I think it’s obvious he’s hot considering he had one of the best series we’ve seen lol

What actually happens matters in the playoffs more than a hypothetical replay lol


The point of gaming it out like that is to stress-test whether it's just a few spikes or that's who he is.

I think it's very clearly the former. Game 5 of the Finals (and indeed most of that series) he looked like prime LeBron - next game he scores what, single digits? Completely out of gas. That plus the otherworldly shooting for a career absolutely mediocre mid range shooter suggests there's another gear he CAN get to, but nowhere near consistently since he just can't expend that much effort, or shoot that well consistently enough.
LukaTheGOAT
Analyst
Posts: 3,274
And1: 2,987
Joined: Dec 25, 2019
 

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#265 » by LukaTheGOAT » Mon May 1, 2023 1:30 pm

kayess wrote:
MyUniBroDavis wrote:
kayess wrote:All these all-timer games from Butler is just him significantly outperforming his usual midrange %. It's just not who he is the same way hyper efficient 30++ games are from Durant for example.

All credit to him, he has an insane handful of all-time playoff heaters, but it's just insane shooting variance to me right now.

Doesn't mean he can't make top 100, but what he's doing has to be discounted as an aberration and you ahve to believe everything else he does 99% of the time makes up for it



He’s shooting around the same percentage outside of 10 feet, and I think it’s obvious he’s hot considering he had one of the best series we’ve seen lol

What actually happens matters in the playoffs more than a hypothetical replay lol


The point of gaming it out like that is to stress-test whether it's just a few spikes or that's who he is.

I think it's very clearly the former. Game 5 of the Finals (and indeed most of that series) he looked like prime LeBron - next game he scores what, single digits? Completely out of gas. That plus the otherworldly shooting for a career absolutely mediocre mid range shooter suggests there's another gear he CAN get to, but nowhere near consistently since he just can't expend that much effort, or shoot that well consistently enough.


He had 12 points on 5-10 shooting in Game 6, but I get your point.
OhayoKD
Head Coach
Posts: 6,042
And1: 3,934
Joined: Jun 22, 2022

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#266 » by OhayoKD » Mon May 1, 2023 2:44 pm

LA Bird wrote:
Jaivl wrote:In terms of GOAThood, Giannis jumping from the mid 30s into the mid-high 20s, and projecting Butler from the low 70s into the low 50s (not having Butler as top 100 in 2022 is asisine and you should feel bad).
And most importantly, Jrue Holiday going from 140ish to 110ish.

Don't know if I am overracting to Butler's latest series but I feel like he could climb even higher than 50. Frazier is usually ranked around 30 and I don't see him having too big of an advantage at this point over Butler in terms of all round ability, defense, playoffs performance, or longevity.

I want to see how Butler handles being doubled before I leap that far
Doctor MJ
Senior Mod
Senior Mod
Posts: 53,774
And1: 22,687
Joined: Mar 10, 2005
Location: Cali
     

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#267 » by Doctor MJ » Mon May 1, 2023 9:28 pm

So with 1st round in the books, some thoughts:

DPOY-wise, my RS ballot is all messed up. I had:

1. Brook
2. Mobley
3. JJJ

I think Brook is just out of contention. Mobley's not entirely out, but weakened. JJJ got outplayed by AD...but looked a lot better than Mobley.

I could see a scenario where JJJ and/or Mobley remains on my ballot, but I don't think there's any way either will be in my top spot.

Draymond looms of course. Us getting to see a series with Draymond & AD (again) is going to be awesome, and they may end up the top two guys on my roster.

Also, weird to me that no one else from the East is front of mine right now. That could change in a hurry.

When I think about the big'un, POY, I feel like I'm likely down to 7 top contenders based on the teams left:

Jokic
Embiid
Butler
Tatum
AD
Curry
Booker

It's certainly possible that someone else shining from those 7 teams (Jaylen, LeBron, Dray, KD, etc) re-shapes the dynamic within that team, but I think it's unlikely that someone already eliminated will grab one of the 5 slots.

Also, only team left with no representation here is the Knicks. No insult intended, just think this is more about a collective team than it is about any one player.
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board

Come join the WNBA Board if you're a fan!
Doctor MJ
Senior Mod
Senior Mod
Posts: 53,774
And1: 22,687
Joined: Mar 10, 2005
Location: Cali
     

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#268 » by Doctor MJ » Mon May 1, 2023 11:46 pm

MyUniBroDavis wrote:
LA Bird wrote:
Jaivl wrote:In terms of GOAThood, Giannis jumping from the mid 30s into the mid-high 20s, and projecting Butler from the low 70s into the low 50s (not having Butler as top 100 in 2022 is asisine and you should feel bad).
And most importantly, Jrue Holiday going from 140ish to 110ish.

Don't know if I am overracting to Butler's latest series but I feel like he could climb even higher than 50. Frazier is usually ranked around 30 and I don't see him having too big of an advantage at this point over Butler in terms of all round ability, defense, playoffs performance, or longevity.


For me a thing about Jimmy is just, if he keeps doing playoff Jimmy things then you gotta evaluate his seasons differently right?

Like if he goes to the ECF or the finals, and keeps this pace up, that’s one of the greatest runs ever right? If he wins the finals, well then damn let’s think of a better run than that?

It’s really early to say of course but what he did against that defence was crazy, I’m assuming he comes back down to earth but if he doesn’t he should be getting POY talks imo


So, this is why I like using things like POY share approaches to make sure that I'm giving things proper weighting. The playoffs can dominate a particular season, but in the end it's just one season - you can choose to make that dominate your holistic analysis if you consider it impressive enough of course, but by default, there's a natural limit.

Right now I have Butler as having 2 Top 5 seasons, likely to be having his 3rd.
I also have him with 0.6 POY shares, and so that could go up all the way to 1.6, which would put him 37th on my POY share list.

Butler's longevity is going to be a thing with less agreement among voters than there would be for most guys, but he was first named an all-star 9 years ago, so it's not likely he's got awful longevity. And so yeah, Top 50 is certainly a possibility for me.

Re: Frazier. He's tricky. Based on his lesser mainstream stature relative to teammate Willis Reed, and the fact his box score doesn't have crazy pop, the Top 100 here has always had him crazy high.

Thing is, when I go through season by season, Frazier ends up coming off great. He makes my Top 3 in 4 seasons no caveats necessary, and even takes my top spot in the weird year that was '72-73 (which could change next time I re-evaluate because it's a tough one).

All this to say that when you start looking at Frazier as the essential piece of the best core run in the NBA in the '70s, he ends up beating out a lot of guys you don't necessarily expect him to.

None of this is to say I think people are crazy to prefer Butler to Frazier, or to rank Butler very high, but I think it's important to look at the players around Frazier to have a sense of whether you think Butler is that high, Frazier is just overrated, or Frazier is perhaps greater than you realize.
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board

Come join the WNBA Board if you're a fan!
OhayoKD
Head Coach
Posts: 6,042
And1: 3,934
Joined: Jun 22, 2022

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#269 » by OhayoKD » Tue May 2, 2023 5:08 am

Durant's been the worst superstar by far these playoffs.
ardee
RealGM
Posts: 15,320
And1: 5,397
Joined: Nov 16, 2011

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#270 » by ardee » Tue May 2, 2023 9:25 am

What would it take for LeBron and/or AD to make anyone's top 5?
LukaTheGOAT
Analyst
Posts: 3,274
And1: 2,987
Joined: Dec 25, 2019
 

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#271 » by LukaTheGOAT » Tue May 2, 2023 1:55 pm

OhayoKD wrote:Durant's been the worst superstar by far these playoffs.


Think that would be Lebron if you consider him a superstar still (Understandable if you don't). Also think you could argue Embiid hasn't been better especially with the health factored in.
Colbinii
RealGM
Posts: 34,243
And1: 21,859
Joined: Feb 13, 2013

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#272 » by Colbinii » Tue May 2, 2023 2:17 pm

ardee wrote:What would it take for LeBron and/or AD to make anyone's top 5?


I don't think LeBron has a realistic shot. Sure, his foot could be magically healed and he could rattle off 3 series putting up 25/7/7 with good to great defense [defense is already good to great].

AD has a much easier chance. He just keeps up his level of play, ideally puts up 3-4 30+ point game per series and he is a shoe-in, even if they lose in the WCF to Denver.
OhayoKD
Head Coach
Posts: 6,042
And1: 3,934
Joined: Jun 22, 2022

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#273 » by OhayoKD » Tue May 2, 2023 4:20 pm

LukaTheGOAT wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:Durant's been the worst superstar by far these playoffs.


Think that would be Lebron if you consider him a superstar still (Understandable if you don't). Also think you could argue Embiid hasn't been better especially with the health factored in.

Nah. I'd say he was more valuable vs a much better Memphis team than durant was against a much weaker clipper side. End of game free-throws and rondo assists have beefed up what was a mediocre performance against a bad opponent. The nuggets are hardly exceptional defensively, but he's been outright bad these first two games. Lebron's game 4 is comfortably the best performance either has had imo.

Durant's scoring hasn't been impressive and Lebron has offered significantly more on basically every other aspect of the game
Colbinii
RealGM
Posts: 34,243
And1: 21,859
Joined: Feb 13, 2013

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#274 » by Colbinii » Wed May 3, 2023 5:27 pm

Monte McNair being named Executive of the Year.

Help me think this one through.

Pros
+Mike Brown Hire [Hired COY]
+Malik Monk
+High-Impact rookie in Keegan Murray
+Trade for Huerter
+Kessler Edwards for Cash

Cons
-Main success for season was 2022 Trade [Sabonis]
-Haliburton looks like a higher ceiling player than both Fox and Sabonis
-Jalen Williams would be a perfect fit on this team with higher upside than Murray

So, I admit, the Cons aren't actually bad. The Kings had a vision in mind last year and went for it [Sabonis, Huerter and Monk additions along with drafting Murray]. This paid off.

Nitpicking Haliburton because we don't know if the Kings would have ever been as good with Haliburton this year, next year, or anytime in the future while keeping Haliburton.

Not picking the best player after Murray isn't really a knock as tons of teams missed on Jalen Williams.

Who are the other candidates?
-Danny Ainge
-Brad Stevens
-Calvin Booth
-Sam Presti
-Koby Altman
-Daryl Morey

RE: Ainge

I don't value trading stars for future assets in EOY because I look at this award through a lens of Winning is the goal. Acquiring rebuilding assets are part of the goal, but for me it is how you use your assets to win rather than acquiring the assets. Why? Everyone can sell of stars for assets. 25+ teams will be willing to part ways with their assets to acquire a star.

On the flip side, the Markkanen get is huge. If he ends up continuing to be a Top 20-30 guy and can prove to be a #2 on a a championship team then maybe I can look back and see how I messed this up, but as of now I don't have Ainge as better than McNair.

RE: Stevens

Simply put, the Udoka situation was difficult to maneuver. Stevens didn't do a perfect job [most teams don't] but he found a suitable replacement on the fly. The Malcolm Brogdon addition has been huge and he kept a core together that looks to be on the verge on a second NBA Finals Appearance in as many seasons.

We will see how the Brown situation plays out [Not Boston's fault given the extension rules] and we will see if they keep the core together "1 year too long" which is significantly worse than moving on from a core 1 year early.

I would side with McNair here.

RE: Booth

Good draft. Had to avoid the Tax per Ownership and could have used JaMychal Green for depth. Added KCP in a great trade with Washington and signed Bruce Brown [The 2nd best MLE contract aside from SlowMo].

He had little to work with, made moves around the edges to improve the depth and quality of the role players [found the right players].

I think I would side with Booth here given what I have seen so far and how I project Denver through the playoffs.

RE: Presti

Good Draft. Dort contract isn't great. Kenrich Williams contract is good. Locked in nice role players [similar to Booth acquiring Role Players but to a lesser degree] and made a strong push for the post-season.

Similar tier as Booth and McNair, behind both though.

RE: Altman

I like going for it with the Mitchell Trade. You aren't given many opportunities to find a guy of his caliber often. However, the fit isn't great and as we see the team really needs a Kenrich Williams, Bruce Brown or KCP on the wing and they don't have that.

How good could they have been had they kept Lauri Markkanen and went for a Turner/Allen type swap at Center?

Captain Hindsight, I know, but the team isn't there and the puzzle is still missing key pieces.

RE: Morey

He signed Harden last year. P.J. Tucker is the perfect [alright, he isn't perfect but he does fit] complimentary piece to Harden/Maxey/Harris/MVPIID [He deserves it].

It sucks building around a generational center like Embiid who is never healthy for a full post-season run.

The Harden Contract was a deal and a half [seriously, Harden is a Max-level player making just over half the Max].

Under the table or not, Morey would be ahead of Altman and Stevens for me, really close to the McNair/Booth/Presti Tier. Probably ahead of Presti.

edit: Missed Rose and Pelinka
Doctor MJ
Senior Mod
Senior Mod
Posts: 53,774
And1: 22,687
Joined: Mar 10, 2005
Location: Cali
     

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#275 » by Doctor MJ » Wed May 3, 2023 8:48 pm

Colbinii wrote:Monte McNair being named Executive of the Year.

Help me think this one through.

Pros
+Mike Brown Hire [Hired COY]
+Malik Monk
+High-Impact rookie in Keegan Murray
+Trade for Huerter
+Kessler Edwards for Cash

Cons
-Main success for season was 2022 Trade [Sabonis]
-Haliburton looks like a higher ceiling player than both Fox and Sabonis
-Jalen Williams would be a perfect fit on this team with higher upside than Murray

So, I admit, the Cons aren't actually bad. The Kings had a vision in mind last year and went for it [Sabonis, Huerter and Monk additions along with drafting Murray]. This paid off.

Nitpicking Haliburton because we don't know if the Kings would have ever been as good with Haliburton this year, next year, or anytime in the future while keeping Haliburton.

Not picking the best player after Murray isn't really a knock as tons of teams missed on Jalen Williams.


Good thoughts.

I'm certainly considering McNair, but it's always bothered me when EOY gets EOY seemingly primarily for hiring the COY. Not saying it shouldn't count at all, but often it feels like a way of just hedging bets as to who was actually the more essential piece.

I think if you're high enough on Murray or Huerter, would understand being more excited about the choice.

The Sabonis-Haliburton is tricky for multiple reasons, the first of which being that it happened the previous year. As such, as I've said before, I think it's fine for you to have it in the back of your mind when you do this analysis, I don't think it should be given as an explicitly relevant move.

The extra complication there is that the jury will still be out on whether it was a good move or not for some time to come. The year going as well as it did made the move look great, but Sabonis' issues in the playoffs...look pretty much what we were already concerned about with him.

Colbinii wrote:RE: Ainge

I don't value trading stars for future assets in EOY because I look at this award through a lens of Winning is the goal. Acquiring rebuilding assets are part of the goal, but for me it is how you use your assets to win rather than acquiring the assets. Why? Everyone can sell of stars for assets. 25+ teams will be willing to part ways with their assets to acquire a star.

On the flip side, the Markkanen get is huge. If he ends up continuing to be a Top 20-30 guy and can prove to be a #2 on a a championship team then maybe I can look back and see how I messed this up, but as of now I don't have Ainge as better than McNair.


I'm with you in principle, but the acquisition of the guys I might vote for MIP & ROY both coming out of nowhere for me while also hiring a new coach who seems sharp as a tack is damn impressive. Ainge might get my vote.

Colbinii wrote:RE: Stevens

Simply put, the Udoka situation was difficult to maneuver. Stevens didn't do a perfect job [most teams don't] but he found a suitable replacement on the fly. The Malcolm Brogdon addition has been huge and he kept a core together that looks to be on the verge on a second NBA Finals Appearance in as many seasons.

We will see how the Brown situation plays out [Not Boston's fault given the extension rules] and we will see if they keep the core together "1 year too long" which is significantly worse than moving on from a core 1 year early.

I would side with McNair here.


Unlikely I'll seriously consider Stevens here. I should note he was my choice for EOY last year, and so that's related in various ways, but specifically on the coaching thing:

What Stevens did here is promote someone to head coach who was already on staff before he hired the previous coach. If the new coach is THAT great, shouldn't he have promoted him previously? That may not seem entirely fair, but I say it to say that I think Stevens chose Udoka over Mazzulla for a reason the previous year, and his choice to promote Mazzulla had less to do with him being the best coach available and more to do with the fact that the team could just keep doing what they'd learn to do under Udoka. Perhaps a wise move, but not really a stand out GMing move.

I think that if you like Brogdon enough I could see that being a big factor for you, but in general when a GM's big player move is to acquire a backup, this isn't normally enough to get me to seriously think of him as an EOY candidate.

I get that Brogdon won 6MOY so that can make it seem like a particularly special case...but to be perfectly honest I have real reservations about naming a guy as 6MOY who has a negative On/Off.

Colbinii wrote:RE: Booth

Good draft. Had to avoid the Tax per Ownership and could have used JaMychal Green for depth. Added KCP in a great trade with Washington and signed Bruce Brown [The 2nd best MLE contract aside from SlowMo].

He had little to work with, made moves around the edges to improve the depth and quality of the role players [found the right players].

I think I would side with Booth here given what I have seen so far and how I project Denver through the playoffs.


I've been thinking a lot about booth. If it comes down to role player acquisition, the KCP/Brown duo is about as good as they come.

2 concerns other than the fact that someone else might end up just feeling more showy:

1. I'm reluctant to give a guy EOY for making minor moves that are only noteworthy because of the core already in place that was built by another exec. If the Nuggets were to win the title this year and we were to name the most important pieces, we'd have to go through a bunch of names before we got to won that Booth acquired.

2. I think we may have to ask ourselves how much the GMs in Denver are really doing. On another team an owner letting a successful GM like Connolly go would feel like hubris of the "Dumbass billionaire thinks he knows more about basketball than basketball people", except of course the owner in this case (Josh Kroenke) was actually a college basketball player while his previous GM wasn't. Booth of course had a more successful playing career than Kroenke, but suffice to say that I don't think that that's why Kroenke hired him.

Colbinii wrote:RE: Presti

Good Draft. Dort contract isn't great. Kenrich Williams contract is good. Locked in nice role players [similar to Booth acquiring Role Players but to a lesser degree] and made a strong push for the post-season.

Similar tier as Booth and McNair, behind both though.


I dunno. Doesn't really seem like he did much to be relevant for this award this year.

Colbinii wrote:RE: Altman

I like going for it with the Mitchell Trade. You aren't given many opportunities to find a guy of his caliber often. However, the fit isn't great and as we see the team really needs a Kenrich Williams, Bruce Brown or KCP on the wing and they don't have that.

How good could they have been had they kept Lauri Markkanen and went for a Turner/Allen type swap at Center?

Captain Hindsight, I know, but the team isn't there and the puzzle is still missing key pieces.


I said at the end of the RS that he was #1 on my EOY list, but much depended on whether the odd team he put together seemed to work in the playoffs.

It didn't work, so now he won't be anywhere near my ballot, and frankly if I were ownership I'd be asking him very seriously what his contingency plans are.

Colbinii wrote:RE: Morey

He signed Harden last year. P.J. Tucker is the perfect [alright, he isn't perfect but he does fit] complimentary piece to Harden/Maxey/Harris/MVPIID [He deserves it].

It sucks building around a generational center like Embiid who is never healthy for a full post-season run.

The Harden Contract was a deal and a half [seriously, Harden is a Max-level player making just over half the Max].

Under the table or not, Morey would be ahead of Altman and Stevens for me, really close to the McNair/Booth/Presti Tier. Probably ahead of Presti.


So, first the obligatory mention of not picking a guy primarily because of something he did in the previous season.

Beyond that, there's a major elephant in the room: If the 76ers lose in the 2nd round again, then they'll basically have made zero steps forward since '17-18 when Simmons got them to the 2nd round largely without Embiid.

That's a bit unfair but I know full well that good moves have been made since then and not all 2nd round teams are equally good, but I'll put it this way:

If the 76ers lose in the 2nd round, I'd be expecting Morey to strongly consider firing Rivers and replacing him with a coach of his own choosing, which will then be the biggest decision he's made other than the game of chicken he played with Ben Simmons. What both of those two moves will have in common is that neither happened this year, even though one of them (firing Rivers), could have happened.

Colbinii wrote:edit: Missed Rose and Pelinka


I think Rose is a clear candidate. I have mixed feelings about him primarily because I don't think he made a decision of "We shouldn't trade for Mitchell because we got Brunson and there's only one ball" so much as "We think it makes sense to build our team around two point guards but we're going to rely on a game of chicken to get the second point guard because we're sure Ainge will cave...oh, he didn't cave."

I also have a tendency to be cautious around teams that don't seem to be on their way to a championship contending core. Not a fundamental rule, but if we think about a team like the Chicago Bulls last year, I think it's clear the concern. As good as things seemed right off the bat last year, the fact that the Bulls are now in the middle of a "This is fine" meme isn't a great surprise.

Unless Brunson emerges as a true superstar, do we really see this team as poised to contend? Are we really looking to give EOY to someone who has agreed to be paying Julius Randle $29 million in '25-26?

Pelinka is someone who I've been dismissive of but who I'm starting to feel like I need to reconsider.

Fundamentally: I don't believe in giving someone EOY for trading away Westbrook unless they weren't the one to acquire Westbrook. I understand that the decision to trade for Westbrook was driven by LeBron, but when you're the Exec, that goes on your ledger, and so I think we need to compare what you get for Westbrook to what you decided to give up when went after Westbrook.

However:

1. The specific decision to acquire and embrace Reaves is something noteworthy. Pelinka doesn't deserve anything like sole credit for it, but again, when you're the Exec, that goes on your ledger too.

2. The Vanderbilt acquisition. If by the end of the post-season I see Vando as big enough, that will really help his case. Seeing the 6'9" chase Curry around yesterday was eye-opening. Seems like he might be a perfect role player.
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board

Come join the WNBA Board if you're a fan!
MyUniBroDavis
General Manager
Posts: 7,827
And1: 5,034
Joined: Jan 14, 2013

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#276 » by MyUniBroDavis » Wed May 3, 2023 9:12 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
Colbinii wrote:Monte McNair being named Executive of the Year.

Help me think this one through.

Pros
+Mike Brown Hire [Hired COY]
+Malik Monk
+High-Impact rookie in Keegan Murray
+Trade for Huerter
+Kessler Edwards for Cash

Cons
-Main success for season was 2022 Trade [Sabonis]
-Haliburton looks like a higher ceiling player than both Fox and Sabonis
-Jalen Williams would be a perfect fit on this team with higher upside than Murray

So, I admit, the Cons aren't actually bad. The Kings had a vision in mind last year and went for it [Sabonis, Huerter and Monk additions along with drafting Murray]. This paid off.

Nitpicking Haliburton because we don't know if the Kings would have ever been as good with Haliburton this year, next year, or anytime in the future while keeping Haliburton.

Not picking the best player after Murray isn't really a knock as tons of teams missed on Jalen Williams.


Good thoughts.

I'm certainly considering McNair, but it's always bothered me when EOY gets EOY seemingly primarily for hiring the COY. Not saying it shouldn't count at all, but often it feels like a way of just hedging bets as to who was actually the more essential piece.

I think if you're high enough on Murray or Huerter, would understand being more excited about the choice.

The Sabonis-Haliburton is tricky for multiple reasons, the first of which being that it happened the previous year. As such, as I've said before, I think it's fine for you to have it in the back of your mind when you do this analysis, I don't think it should be given as an explicitly relevant move.

The extra complication there is that the jury will still be out on whether it was a good move or not for some time to come. The year going as well as it did made the move look great, but Sabonis' issues in the playoffs...look pretty much what we were already concerned about with him.

Colbinii wrote:RE: Ainge

I don't value trading stars for future assets in EOY because I look at this award through a lens of Winning is the goal. Acquiring rebuilding assets are part of the goal, but for me it is how you use your assets to win rather than acquiring the assets. Why? Everyone can sell of stars for assets. 25+ teams will be willing to part ways with their assets to acquire a star.

On the flip side, the Markkanen get is huge. If he ends up continuing to be a Top 20-30 guy and can prove to be a #2 on a a championship team then maybe I can look back and see how I messed this up, but as of now I don't have Ainge as better than McNair.


I'm with you in principle, but the acquisition of the guys I might vote for MIP & ROY both coming out of nowhere for me while also hiring a new coach who seems sharp as a tack is damn impressive. Ainge might get my vote.

Colbinii wrote:RE: Stevens

Simply put, the Udoka situation was difficult to maneuver. Stevens didn't do a perfect job [most teams don't] but he found a suitable replacement on the fly. The Malcolm Brogdon addition has been huge and he kept a core together that looks to be on the verge on a second NBA Finals Appearance in as many seasons.

We will see how the Brown situation plays out [Not Boston's fault given the extension rules] and we will see if they keep the core together "1 year too long" which is significantly worse than moving on from a core 1 year early.

I would side with McNair here.


Unlikely I'll seriously consider Stevens here. I should note he was my choice for EOY last year, and so that's related in various ways, but specifically on the coaching thing:

What Stevens did here is promote someone to head coach who was already on staff before he hired the previous coach. If the new coach is THAT great, shouldn't he have promoted him previously? That may not seem entirely fair, but I say it to say that I think Stevens chose Udoka over Mazzulla for a reason the previous year, and his choice to promote Mazzulla had less to do with him being the best coach available and more to do with the fact that the team could just keep doing what they'd learn to do under Udoka. Perhaps a wise move, but not really a stand out GMing move.

I think that if you like Brogdon enough I could see that being a big factor for you, but in general when a GM's big player move is to acquire a backup, this isn't normally enough to get me to seriously think of him as an EOY candidate.

I get that Brogdon won 6MOY so that can make it seem like a particularly special case...but to be perfectly honest I have real reservations about naming a guy as 6MOY who has a negative On/Off.

Colbinii wrote:RE: Booth

Good draft. Had to avoid the Tax per Ownership and could have used JaMychal Green for depth. Added KCP in a great trade with Washington and signed Bruce Brown [The 2nd best MLE contract aside from SlowMo].

He had little to work with, made moves around the edges to improve the depth and quality of the role players [found the right players].

I think I would side with Booth here given what I have seen so far and how I project Denver through the playoffs.


I've been thinking a lot about booth. If it comes down to role player acquisition, the KCP/Brown duo is about as good as they come.

2 concerns other than the fact that someone else might end up just feeling more showy:

1. I'm reluctant to give a guy EOY for making minor moves that are only noteworthy because of the core already in place that was built by another exec. If the Nuggets were to win the title this year and we were to name the most important pieces, we'd have to go through a bunch of names before we got to won that Booth acquired.

2. I think we may have to ask ourselves how much the GMs in Denver are really doing. On another team an owner letting a successful GM like Connolly go would feel like hubris of the "Dumbass billionaire thinks he knows more about basketball than basketball people", except of course the owner in this case (Josh Kroenke) was actually a college basketball player while his previous GM wasn't. Booth of course had a more successful playing career than Kroenke, but suffice to say that I don't think that that's why Kroenke hired him.

Colbinii wrote:RE: Presti

Good Draft. Dort contract isn't great. Kenrich Williams contract is good. Locked in nice role players [similar to Booth acquiring Role Players but to a lesser degree] and made a strong push for the post-season.

Similar tier as Booth and McNair, behind both though.


I dunno. Doesn't really seem like he did much to be relevant for this award this year.

Colbinii wrote:RE: Altman

I like going for it with the Mitchell Trade. You aren't given many opportunities to find a guy of his caliber often. However, the fit isn't great and as we see the team really needs a Kenrich Williams, Bruce Brown or KCP on the wing and they don't have that.

How good could they have been had they kept Lauri Markkanen and went for a Turner/Allen type swap at Center?

Captain Hindsight, I know, but the team isn't there and the puzzle is still missing key pieces.


I said at the end of the RS that he was #1 on my EOY list, but much depended on whether the odd team he put together seemed to work in the playoffs.

It didn't work, so now he won't be anywhere near my ballot, and frankly if I were ownership I'd be asking him very seriously what his contingency plans are.

Colbinii wrote:RE: Morey

He signed Harden last year. P.J. Tucker is the perfect [alright, he isn't perfect but he does fit] complimentary piece to Harden/Maxey/Harris/MVPIID [He deserves it].

It sucks building around a generational center like Embiid who is never healthy for a full post-season run.

The Harden Contract was a deal and a half [seriously, Harden is a Max-level player making just over half the Max].

Under the table or not, Morey would be ahead of Altman and Stevens for me, really close to the McNair/Booth/Presti Tier. Probably ahead of Presti.


So, first the obligatory mention of not picking a guy primarily because of something he did in the previous season.

Beyond that, there's a major elephant in the room: If the 76ers lose in the 2nd round again, then they'll basically have made zero steps forward since '17-18 when Simmons got them to the 2nd round largely without Embiid.

That's a bit unfair but I know full well that good moves have been made since then and not all 2nd round teams are equally good, but I'll put it this way:

If the 76ers lose in the 2nd round, I'd be expecting Morey to strongly consider firing Rivers and replacing him with a coach of his own choosing, which will then be the biggest decision he's made other than the game of chicken he played with Ben Simmons. What both of those two moves will have in common is that neither happened this year, even though one of them (firing Rivers), could have happened.

Colbinii wrote:edit: Missed Rose and Pelinka


I think Rose is a clear candidate. I have mixed feelings about him primarily because I don't think he made a decision of "We shouldn't trade for Mitchell because we got Brunson and there's only one ball" so much as "We think it makes sense to build our team around two point guards but we're going to rely on a game of chicken to get the second point guard because we're sure Ainge will cave...oh, he didn't cave."

I also have a tendency to be cautious around teams that don't seem to be on their way to a championship contending core. Not a fundamental rule, but if we think about a team like the Chicago Bulls last year, I think it's clear the concern. As good as things seemed right off the bat last year, the fact that the Bulls are now in the middle of a "This is fine" meme isn't a great surprise.

Unless Brunson emerges as a true superstar, do we really see this team as poised to contend? Are we really looking to give EOY to someone who has agreed to be paying Julius Randle $29 million in '25-26?

Pelinka is someone who I've been dismissive of but who I'm starting to feel like I need to reconsider.

Fundamentally: I don't believe in giving someone EOY for trading away Westbrook unless they weren't the one to acquire Westbrook. I understand that the decision to trade for Westbrook was driven by LeBron, but when you're the Exec, that goes on your ledger, and so I think we need to compare what you get for Westbrook to what you decided to give up when went after Westbrook.

However:

1. The specific decision to acquire and embrace Reaves is something noteworthy. Pelinka doesn't deserve anything like sole credit for it, but again, when you're the Exec, that goes on your ledger too.

2. The Vanderbilt acquisition. If by the end of the post-season I see Vando as big enough, that will really help his case. Seeing the 6'9" chase Curry around yesterday was eye-opening. Seems like he might be a perfect role player.


I would say pelinka had an amazing deadline

I think at the end of the day, Dlo/Vando/Beasley for Westbrook and a pick is crazy, a pick was what people thought would be to get rid of westbrook period

Beyond that, got rid of TB who was a defensive nightmare for us, got rid of the guard clutter, got Rui whose been out best bench player, Schroder ended up being a fantastic signing in the offseason when everyone doubted it

We basically got rid of all of our bad players (and I don’t count Westbrook in that category), and got 4 rotation players and 2 starters for that.

Even the bamba trade seemed like a perfect idea till he got hurt too

Vando was great, I think he’s matchup dependent and think he’s probably our 3rd best get during the trade season lol
iggymcfrack
RealGM
Posts: 12,016
And1: 9,463
Joined: Sep 26, 2017

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#277 » by iggymcfrack » Wed May 3, 2023 9:18 pm

ardee wrote:What would it take for LeBron and/or AD to make anyone's top 5?


LeBron’s playing great for his age, but I’m not seriously considering him for top 5 right now. If he played well enough to merit serious consideration, it would shock the hell out of me.

Davis on the other hand is getting prettay…. prettay… close to bumping Giannis out of the top 5. His defense has just been incredible. Teams are shooting 20% worse with him as the primary defender and he’s in there contesting ALL THE TIME. His rebounding is huge and now he’s starting to pick up the scoring as well. If he keeps this level of play up and the Lakers beat the Warriors I think he’s pretty much guaranteed a top 5 spot.
MyUniBroDavis
General Manager
Posts: 7,827
And1: 5,034
Joined: Jan 14, 2013

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#278 » by MyUniBroDavis » Wed May 3, 2023 9:41 pm

iggymcfrack wrote:
ardee wrote:What would it take for LeBron and/or AD to make anyone's top 5?


LeBron’s playing great for his age, but I’m not seriously considering him for top 5 right now. If he played well enough to merit serious consideration, it would shock the hell out of me.

Davis on the other hand is getting prettay…. prettay… close to bumping Giannis out of the top 5. His defense has just been incredible. Teams are shooting 20% worse with him as the primary defender and he’s in there contesting ALL THE TIME. His rebounding is huge and now he’s starting to pick up the scoring as well. If he keeps this level of play up and the Lakers beat the Warriors I think he’s pretty much guaranteed a top 5 spot.


It probably depends on how far the Lakers go

If bron didn’t have health issues this regular season I think he had a top 5 RS probably, if they have a deep run and he continues that he’d probably be top 5 for me, ditto with AD

It depends on how far they go, if they lose this round then there’s no shot of course

This feels like a year that whoever wins the chip is gonna have my POY lol
iggymcfrack
RealGM
Posts: 12,016
And1: 9,463
Joined: Sep 26, 2017

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#279 » by iggymcfrack » Wed May 3, 2023 10:01 pm

MyUniBroDavis wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:
ardee wrote:What would it take for LeBron and/or AD to make anyone's top 5?


LeBron’s playing great for his age, but I’m not seriously considering him for top 5 right now. If he played well enough to merit serious consideration, it would shock the hell out of me.

Davis on the other hand is getting prettay…. prettay… close to bumping Giannis out of the top 5. His defense has just been incredible. Teams are shooting 20% worse with him as the primary defender and he’s in there contesting ALL THE TIME. His rebounding is huge and now he’s starting to pick up the scoring as well. If he keeps this level of play up and the Lakers beat the Warriors I think he’s pretty much guaranteed a top 5 spot.


It probably depends on how far the Lakers go

If bron didn’t have health issues this regular season I think he had a top 5 RS probably, if they have a deep run and he continues that he’d probably be top 5 for me, ditto with AD

It depends on how far they go, if they lose this round then there’s no shot of course

This feels like a year that whoever wins the chip is gonna have my POY lol


Well that’s fair because Jokic is winning the chip. But also he’s had such an incredible season so far that I don’t see how he gets caught by say Tatum if the Celtics win who are current favorites. They just haven’t been in the same stratosphere so far.
Doctor MJ
Senior Mod
Senior Mod
Posts: 53,774
And1: 22,687
Joined: Mar 10, 2005
Location: Cali
     

Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#280 » by Doctor MJ » Wed May 3, 2023 10:10 pm

MyUniBroDavis wrote:I would say pelinka had an amazing deadline

I think at the end of the day, Dlo/Vando/Beasley for Westbrook and a pick is crazy, a pick was what people thought would be to get rid of westbrook period

Beyond that, got rid of TB who was a defensive nightmare for us, got rid of the guard clutter, got Rui whose been out best bench player, Schroder ended up being a fantastic signing in the offseason when everyone doubted it

We basically got rid of all of our bad players (and I don’t count Westbrook in that category), and got 4 rotation players and 2 starters for that.

Even the bamba trade seemed like a perfect idea till he got hurt too

Vando was great, I think he’s matchup dependent and think he’s probably our 3rd best get during the trade season lol


Yeah so I have to reiterate first:

The only reason why he was able to make a trade where he can be credited with not giving up too much to get rid of Westbrook is because he previously made a trade where he actually gave up stuff to GET Westbrook. If you want to ignore the sheer idiocy of his previous move, you can, but I cannot.

Now, if we want to make the argument the net gain between the two moves is very positive, that would make sense to me in principle. If you think they bought low and sold high on Westbrook, by all means, speak to that.

I've mentioned Vando already as someone who could possibly be a big positive so that's a possible avenue for argumentation, but as you say, he's likely still a guy who you'll prefer to play bench in some matchups.

Re: Dlo, Beasley. Just so we're clear, these guys together are guys paid more than $45 mill in total, one of whom the other team was actively trying to get rid of ASAP, and the other of whom the Lakers are playing 11 MPG in the playoffs. It's nice if these guys work out for the Lakers, but let's be real that this wasn't a brilliant chess move, it was mostly just two teams looking to get rid of trash that was making their team worse.

Re: Got rid of TB. He was making less than $2 mill, so I really don't see him as someone who was a problem that you need to credit the GM with getting rid of. You could just tell him to stay home.

Re: Rui. He's definitely been a nice get. Point for Pelinka there.

Re: Schroeder fantastic. It's been a good move for a number of reasons, but I don't think I'd want him to be a starter on the Lakers unless the alternative was Westbrook.

Re: Bamba. Not that I'd want to hold the move against Pelinka, but you're talking about another guy on the roster making more millions per year than minutes the Lakers were playing him. I'm cautious about mentioning a guy like this to support an EOY case.
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board

Come join the WNBA Board if you're a fan!

Return to Player Comparisons