2023 Draft Discussion Part 4

[Psubs]

NSJr is too skinny to be an effective NBA starter. He's going to be a sixth man at best or flame out like Bouknight did.

The pick is Cissoko. He's the obvious choice before Wallace, Hendricks, Whitmore, Black and several other high "potential" guys. If he's drafted watch him be the starting shooting guard come the start of the season.

Poeltl
Barnes
Achiuwa
Cissoko
VanVleet

This is the best case scenario. Siakam and OG are our highest value guys. Sell high and rebuild on the fly. Raise Fred's value and trade him if the season is lost. PF is Barnes natural position and he has the potential to be better than OG and Siakam in the next 2 years. Achiuwa is a more fluid player than OG and he has similar effectiveness on our defense.

Unless the goal is to tank, that front court should never be playing together.

Poeltl is an above average center. Barnes is a ROTY. Achiuwa has shown flashes but would be the weakest link. Fred was an all star that hopefully had a bad year (new role excuse?). Cissoko is young but he's has a lot going for him in the GLeague. I'll discuss him more here but the other guys have their reasons to be optimistic too.

Cissoko has a high AST%, improved every month, gets extremely hot from 3,18 years old, high/improved monthly FTr, 6'7, bulky but quick, explosive, glimpse of burst on the dribble, protects the rim as a guard, switchable, and he can create a bit in the mid range. I have no idea why he isn't a top 10 pick, he will easily be the steal of the draft.

I'd guess we get something half decent for OG and Siakam, realistically OG is the most likely to go too.

C Poeltl
PF Barnes
SF Achiuwa
SG Siakam
PG Cissoko

That is legitimately switchable 1 through 5 and you can't definitely say any of the players listed above will be below average at their listed positions. If they brick hard and can't work together then we can blow it up and lose a middling lottery pick. We took a risk and a bad scenario turned into a worse one. The only thing that can be done now is write it off.

If Cissoko was doing this against kids in college, he'd be on the level of a Taylor Hendricks, Cam Whitmore, Jarace Walker, Anthony Black. Taylor Hendricks has risen from a fringe 1st round pick into the top 10 with his 3pt shooting and continued rim defense. I think he could be Myles Turner 2.0.

Back to Cissoko, I really see Luol Deng 2.0, if he grows another inch, with better passing. If Cissoko tops out at 6'8 legit without shoes like Barnes, looking back at their scouting, who would really draft Barnes over Cissoko? I wouldn't as Cissoko already shoots the NBA 3 better than Barnes at the college 3 and Cissoko being a junior national team PG, would have me think he's better suited as a point forward than Scottie. If Cissoko is working on conditioning with his new body pre-draft and shows well at the drills, he could be moved into the early teens on consensus mocks and not only 1 or 2.

[ATLTimekeeper]

I still like Miller in the mix at 13. Not concerned about long-term fit at all. Can he do Boucher or Precious' role next year? Probably. Unless there's major changes the bench is the available space. I don't really think there's much to add until we get some buzz out of the combine.

[Psubs]

I still like Miller in the mix at 13. Not concerned about long-term fit at all. Can he do Boucher or Precious' role next year? Probably. Unless there's major changes the bench is the available space. I don't really think there's much to add until we get some buzz out of the combine.

If that's the case, don't use #13. Trade Precious and Flynn for a late 1st (in the 20's) and filler, to draft Miller.

Indiana's #26 and Daniel Theis?

[ATLTimekeeper]

I still like Miller in the mix at 13. Not concerned about long-term fit at all. Can he do Boucher or Precious' role next year? Probably. Unless there's major changes the bench is the available space. I don't really think there's much to add until we get some buzz out of the combine.

If that's the case, don't use #13. Trade Precious and Flynn for a late 1st (in the 20's) and filler, to draft Miller.

Indiana's #26 and Daniel Theis?

What if he's taken higher? Just get the best player. Worry about fit when it becomes a problem.

[PoundTown]

I know the majority likes Sidy as the upside pick at 13, but how in good conscience do we select him over Canadian kid Leonard Miller who at 19 averaged 18/8/2 and 1 steal and 1 block playing on the same team?

Honestly, watching his film he is deceptively simple in what he does and shows better athleticism than I initially thought. Last year I thought this kid is too raw to play in the NBA and a year later he looks like this:

Read on Twitter

Swing skill for both is shooting, but Miller got pretty better as the season went on.

Also I just realized that one of the most underrated defenders I mentioned before, Emanuel Miller, is Leonard's older brother. It may be possible to get him undrafted.

Both TCU guys are great options as undrafted free agents. I think Mike Miles could be a very good backup PG too; he may or may not be drafted.

[Psubs]

Both TCU guys are great options as undrafted free agents. I think Mike Miles could be a very good backup PG too; he may or may not be drafted.

Isn't Mike Miles like Marcus Sasser that can't shoot as well?

[Psubs]

I still like Miller in the mix at 13. Not concerned about long-term fit at all. Can he do Boucher or Precious' role next year? Probably. Unless there's major changes the bench is the available space. I don't really think there's much to add until we get some buzz out of the combine.

If that's the case, don't use #13. Trade Precious and Flynn for a late 1st (in the 20's) and filler, to draft Miller.

Indiana's #26 and Daniel Theis?

What if he's taken higher? Just get the best player. Worry about fit when it becomes a problem.

It seems like after Wemby, there is Scoot and Brandon Miller, then like around 10 guys that may all be around the same calibre and then next group of 10 that have the same probability to suceed. If someone drops out of the earlier group of 10, maybe you take them, like Sacramento drafting Haliburton even though they have Fox (though Hali could be SG), then they drafted Davion Mitchell even though they had Fox and Haliburton. Then traded Haliburton for Sabonis. Otherwise you take combination of the best fit and BPA, since in the teens you're looking for at least a rotation player with potential to start and fill a need.

I think GG Jackson might be a better gamble than Miller, since he seems to have a closer skillset to TWac. Both might be gone by the 20's or they might not and you pull the trigger on a trade. More likely GG is gone by #13 than Miller. Teams in the teens likely need the young player rather than trading for help for the playoffs. Teams in the 20's could be looking to compete. The picks that have been traded should be looked at as that team may have a different direction.

[OakleyDokely]

Hendricks has a chance to be the 2nd best player out of this draft. A freshman who averaged nearly 2 blocks and 1 steal per 36 who also shot the ball as well as he did (47.8 FG / 39.4 3PT / 78.2 FT) has the chance to be a very special player at both ends. And he's 6'9, with a 7+ wingspan.

He's a guy I'd like to move up to get.

[Ell Curry]

I watched about half of Michigan's game this year (big fan, but depressing as hell team, literally nothing at the 4 and the tiny frosh PG did his best, but should have been a backup this year) and I'm not sure where I stand on Bufkin. Definitely not a no-brainer like Wagner was. Smart player. Inhibited by his lack of bulk at times. Couldn't really take over offensively but good off the ball and rarely did anything frustrating, so should look good as the 4th option offensively on the court or 3rd in bench lineups if he can get stronger (and he's young for his class, so probably should).

Sort of the anti-Poole, who clearly had great offensive potential but very raw in terms of bball IQ and all around game.

I'd lean towards optimistic because of his improvement, his age, his defence got solid and he can shoot it so should be fine in a medium usage role. But he also sort of lacked the obvious first step advantage that Wagner (length of strides) and Poole (shiftiness) had. But if he's going to be a 15+ point scorer, I think it will take most of or all of his entire rookie deal to get there. I don't really see him as an obvious Masai pick since he lacks the physical advantages that OG and Siakam had.

Nice insight. Would he be like in between a Tre Mann and Terrence Mann? Slightly taller than Tre and shoot but with same handles. Slightly shorter than Terrence Mann but finishes decently.

Terrence was a very, very physical player at FSU and Tre I think is just too weak to make plays inside the 3pt line but has that stepback game some of the stars do, so I'm not sure I see a ton of similarities.

Bufkin is so young and improved so much in a year that I don't want to cap his ceiling, but the vibe overall is a guy who will not create a ton at the NBA level (though again at his age that feels unfair to assume he can't keep improving his bag) but will do most things well off the catch and in transition. Maybe like Grayson Allen but quicker, which suggests a solid starter but not a star?

The case for Bufkin is that he has no huge red flags, he's the age of a freshman and he improved enough that he probably still has upside. The case against is that 6'4, 200 pound (let's say he adds 5 pounds) SGs who aren't as quick as PGs, don't really seem to have a place in starting lineups much anymore. I have no idea how to project his pick and roll ballhandling. He has good patience and can finish inside, but not the explosion of a Mitchell or Lillard. So, could he be another Flynn who does most things okay but just doesn't have a physical advantage and so struggles at the NBA level? Sure. But he's also 3 years younger than Flynn was when he was drafted, so he's not mostly finished developing.

[Psubs]

Hunter Dickinson is transferring to Kansas from Michigan! I guess too many guards gonna take shots.

With Dick turning pro and Jalen Wilson graduating, he will be able to be the #1 option like Luka Garza was at Iowa. Look for Hunter to shoot for over 20ppg. Maybe he plays like TJD and gets drafted in the 2nd round. He has better size a the C than TJD and showing glimpses of 3pt shooting where he might not get those looks at Michigan.

I guess Hunter is gunning to be like a 7'1 Luka Garza.

[Psubs]

Hendricks has a chance to be the 2nd best player out of this draft. A freshman who averaged nearly 2 blocks and 1 steal per 36 who also shot the ball as well as he did (47.8 FG / 39.4 3PT / 78.2 FT) has the chance to be a very special player at both ends. And he's 6'9, with a 7+ wingspan.

He's a guy I'd like to move up to get.

Don't know how this would work but does FVV opt in to be traded to Orlando so with no state taxes he nets a lot more?

FVV opts in. #13 and FVV for #6 Taylor Henricks and Cole Anthony? I would LOOOOOOOOOOVE this move. If Orlando wants to send Fultz instead we may have to include a 3rd team. Fultz and Boucher to Chicago for Lonzo Ball and Patrick Williams?

[Kevin Willis]

Watch on YouTube

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[Ell Curry]

It could be that Kobe looked nice because he's a sophomore, the physical profile and player skillset, I'd rank Keyonte George higher. Kobe put up the exact same percentages his freshman year as George this year.

That's what's workouts are for tho I guess. I'd lean more towards George tho, better handle and deeper bag and also bigger

They're 2 months apart in age. While Bufkin had a year to get used to college, George had a better team around him. But yeah, same age, Bufkin just took his lumps as a frosh at 18 while George dominated in HS.

[Ell Curry]

I just want a scoring guard who can shoot off of screens and create/shoot off of dribble handoffs. We have bigs who can pass and handle it and do that Sabonis/Draymond high post stuff in Barnes and Poeltl, but no Jamal Murray, Fox or Curry to profit off of it.

No idea if George, Smith or Bufkin can be that guy, but the number of star guards taken around #13 (Haliburton, Donovan Mitchell, Booker, Herro, Shai) suggests you roll the dice with whoever you like the most.

I can't believe Malik Monk isn't on this team. We could have signed him for 20M over 4 years when he left Charlotte in 2021. Ugh. That team is a mess and guys like the lesser McDaniels brother and Monk were worth picking up. I'd guess Houston has a guy like that too as they're consistently the worst coached team we've seen the last couple of years versus the Raptors (remember when they couldn't handle a full court press against us?), though not sure who.

[OakleyDokely]

My tiers


Tier 1 - Potential franchise player, #1 on championship team

Victor Wembanyama


Tier 2 - Potential all-star, #2/#3 on championship team

Taylor Hendricks
Brandon Miller
Scoot Henderson
Cam Whitmore


Tier 3 - Potential starter

Brandin Podziemski
Julian Strawther
Kobe Bufkin
Jordan Hawkins
Jarace Walker
Gradey Dick
Anthony Black
Rayan Rupert
Cason Wallace
Leonard Miller
Jett Howard
Sidy Cissoko
Brice Sensabaugh
Bilal Coulibaly
Colby Jones
Noah Clowney
Dereck Lively


Tier 4 - Potential rotation player

Donovan Clingan
Kyle Filipowski
Marcus Sasser
Trey Alexander
Kris Murray
Jalen Hood-Schifino
Maxwell Lewis
Trayce Jackson-Davis
Jalen Wilson
Dariq Whitehead
Andre Jackson
Amari Bailey
Keyontae Johnson
Ricky Council
Zach Edey
Jaime Jaquez Jr


Tier 5 - My Bust Picks (relative to draft position)

Amen Thompson
Ausar Thompson
GG Jackson
Nick Smith
Keyonte George
Terquavion Smith

[Ell Curry]

Hunter Dickinson is transferring to Kansas from Michigan! I guess too many guards gonna take shots.

With Dick turning pro and Jalen Wilson graduating, he will be able to be the #1 option like Luka Garza was at Iowa. Look for Hunter to shoot for over 20ppg. Maybe he plays like TJD and gets drafted in the 2nd round. He has better size a the C than TJD and showing glimpses of 3pt shooting where he might not get those looks at Michigan.

I guess Hunter is gunning to be like a 7'1 Luka Garza.

I just don't see it for Dickinson in the NBA. Doesn't move his feet well, best skill is his finishing and centres like that don't seem to make it anymore. Would have been a good player in the 80s, but nowadays guys like Tillman and Looney who can switch onto guards and do the little things and impact games without scoring are just better backup centers.

Like with TJD at least he can pass and move well enough to crash the offensive boards and maybe defend pick and rolls in time. Not sure Dickinson can do any of that, because of those things he can really only pass and he does that best in static post ups, though TJD might be the same, but his assist volume suggests it's not just post ups (though I don't watch Indy more than 2-3 times a years so can't really say for sure).

[PoundTown]

Both TCU guys are great options as undrafted free agents. I think Mike Miles could be a very good backup PG too; he may or may not be drafted.

Isn't Mike Miles like Marcus Sasser that can't shoot as well?

Only watched TCU a couple times this year, but yeah, he's an athletic 2 way guard that can shoot it, but definitely not like Sasser, and has a scorers mentality in a point guards body but he's tough as nails and very competetive.

[PoundTown]

Hunter Dickinson is transferring to Kansas from Michigan! I guess too many guards gonna take shots.

With Dick turning pro and Jalen Wilson graduating, he will be able to be the #1 option like Luka Garza was at Iowa. Look for Hunter to shoot for over 20ppg. Maybe he plays like TJD and gets drafted in the 2nd round. He has better size a the C than TJD and showing glimpses of 3pt shooting where he might not get those looks at Michigan.

I guess Hunter is gunning to be like a 7'1 Luka Garza.

I just don't see it for Dickinson in the NBA. Doesn't move his feet well, best skill is his finishing and centres like that don't seem to make it anymore. Would have been a good player in the 80s, but nowadays guys like Tillman and Looney who can switch onto guards and do the little things and impact games without scoring are just better backup centers.

Like with TJD at least he can pass and move well enough to crash the offensive boards and maybe defend pick and rolls in time. Not sure Dickinson can do any of that, because of those things he can really only pass and he does that best in static post ups, though TJD might be the same, but his assist volume suggests it's not just post ups (though I don't watch Indy more than 2-3 times a years so can't really say for sure).

Yeah, Hunter is going to have a really hard time defending in the NBA and I don't think he sticks. NBA calibre player on one end but not the other. Don't think he gives you enough on O to make up for the D and he's not dominant on the glass for a guy his size either. His ceiling is a bench role where he provides some offence against opposing team's benches in my opinion.

[Spates]

Gotcha, gotcha. When Terq looks amazing out there I'm coming to you with a **** grin.

165 tho... He's a paper weight lol.

Players like Terq are good for getting off to hot starts and then washing out. Legit talent, but maybe too many questions and not enough production:

Often when an NCAA player is a star after the top 10 picks there's some similar complaints pre-draft. Here's some quotes.

Jimmy Butler:

Not a great athlete... Lacks great quickness or explosiveness... A bit of a tweener?

Draymond Green:

“Isn't quick or athletic … Too small to play power forward ... Too slow to defend small forwards.”

Middleton:

Middleton's first step off the dribble is not very impressive and he rarely gets past his man in isolation situations

there are questions if he will can maintain similar success against the bigger, more athletic opponents he'll face on nearly every possession

Devin Booker:

Booker’s speed and athleticism is merely average. Though he is not poor, he isn’t gonna blow by anyone and will struggle to contain quicker players at the NBA level.

Sabonis:

Sabonis lacks both exciting athleticism and length. He doesn't bounce off the floor high, while his 6'10 ½" wingspan is unusually short for an interior-oriented player.

Brogdon:

Brodgon lacks a degree of shiftiness and explosiveness, making it difficult for him to turn the corner at times already at the college level.

An average athlete by NBA standards, the Greater Atlanta Christian product makes the most of his physical tools by playing with tremendous intensity

Fred VanVleet:

He isn't a great athlete either, as he doesn't possess a high top speed or a quick burst

SGA:

Gilgeous-Alexander doesn't blow by defenses.

Without the speed, athleticism or reliable three-ball, Gilgeous-Alexander projects as more of a role player than a star. He could start one day if given enough support, but low-end starter, like Payton, is his likeliest ceiling. Gilgeous-Alexander checks boxes for a guard—he just doesn't own any.

Wasserman.
Brunson:

is just an average athlete overall and won't blow anyone away with his quickness or explosiveness, even at the college level, and not certainly not the NBA.

Herro:

He lacks blow-by burst and explosiveness around the basket, where he shot just 49.0 percent.

Haliburton:

He's No. 10 for me because of concerns about his scoring potential since he doesn't have blow-by speed

Bane:

Not lengthy, with a wingspan of only 6 feet, 4 inches
Doesn’t have great athleticism; lacks blazing speed and an explosive first step

Those are fine examples but you've left out the many counter-examples where limited athleticism is problematic. We have Fred and Flynn as examples.

It's not that Podz can't play NBA basketball, the concern is that the entirety of his skillset wont translate. If you're only guaranteed to have his shooting translate is he worth the 13th pick if there are similarly prolific shooters available who also have defensive upside? My concern is that he's ball dominant and can't create separation easily at the college level, a lot of his shots are highly contested. Many players get labelled as unathletic unfairly but he's actually slow-footed with no leaping ability. So much rides on how consistently he can generate good possessions against higher level competition.

Terq is different in that he has the range, mobility, and quickness to easily pressure defenses. The key factor with him is refinement of process. His shooting splits are rough because of aimless possessions where he doesn't seem to have a plan.

As much as I like Terq he's not my favourite prospect in the draft. I just prefer his upside to a lot of the other guard/wings in the late lottery.

[DreamTeam09]

You guys might've talked me more into Kobe B. He's a lefty, I like that.
He can shoot, I like that.
He can dunk, and has long wingspan it appears, I like that
He can finish at the rim, them Lefty's just throw players rhythm off
He doesn't have a bag as of yet, but he is slithery when operating with the ball, that's cool too.

Just has to get stronger, become more creative.
When he gets trapped or doubled or pressed, he likes to pick up his dribble, that should be a deal breaker as a bad PG, but I suppose you can learn from that. Hopefully