2023 Draft Discussion Part 4

[ItsDanger]

Bufkin wasn't the lead guard at Michigan, he played SG. He's more of a combo guard, his handle in traffic or under pressure wasn't great. Good shooter, potential upside player but at 13?, that's a risk. Kind of undecided on him.

[Dalek]

I know the majority likes Sidy as the upside pick at 13, but how in good conscience do we select him over Canadian kid Leonard Miller who at 19 averaged 18/8/2 and 1 steal and 1 block playing on the same team?

Honestly, watching his film he is deceptively simple in what he does and shows better athleticism than I initially thought. Last year I thought this kid is too raw to play in the NBA and a year later he looks like this:

Read on Twitter

Swing skill for both is shooting, but Miller got pretty better as the season went on.

Also I just realized that one of the most underrated defenders I mentioned before, Emanuel Miller, is Leonard's older brother. It may be possible to get him undrafted.

Both TCU guys are great options as undrafted free agents. I think Mike Miles could be a very good backup PG too; he may or may not be drafted.

Miller is the guy I drool over if we can get him undrafted. He is an elite defender and just has incredible technique for contesting without fouling which explains his surreal block and steal numbers.

Read on Twitter

Both Leonard and Emanuel have elite motors in my opinion. I'd love to see Miller Time with both coming off the bench. That is a pretty good defensive combo.

Mike Miles will get snapped up. I am not sure why he would go undrafted unless he preferred to pick his situation and asks teams in the second round not to draft him. He is going to play in the NBA and be a back-up - no doubt because he is too smart and crafty not to make a team.

[raincityraptors]

There are so many players in this draft that have the potential to be quality role players with starter level upside.

This is such a good year to have multiple picks in the 15 to 25 range.

Make it happen Masai!

[DreamTeam09]

Maxwell Lewis is interesting as well, safe pick with some upside potential, wish he was stronger and a better ball handler but he's a pro for sure

[ruckus]

I only really pick up on draft prospects during the offseason.

Anyone have any thoughts on Nikola Durisic? Biggest knock on him is his athleticism but we've seen with other "non-athletic" players that their bbiq makes up for it.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Those are fine examples but you've left out the many counter-examples where limited athleticism is problematic. We have Fred and Flynn as examples.

What? Fred's a one time all-star. That's a success story. You might be mistaking some limitation within the NBA for it being a hindrance to any success in the NBA. My point was to state that 'being athletic enough' is a question that followed a greater portion of successful players drafted later on. It's not to say that athleticism doesn't matter at all or that there aren't scads of players that aren't above average NBA athletes that don't make it in each draft. If they're good enough, it won't stop them.

It's not that Podz can't play NBA basketball, the concern is that the entirety of his skillset wont translate. If you're only guaranteed to have his shooting translate is he worth the 13th pick if there are similarly prolific shooters available who also have defensive upside? My concern is that he's ball dominant and can't create separation easily at the college level, a lot of his shots are highly contested. Many players get labelled as unathletic unfairly but he's actually slow-footed with no leaping ability. So much rides on how consistently he can generate good possessions against higher level competition.

There doesn't appear to be any prolific scorers available at 13 that have defensive upside. The only one that really sticks out is Kobe Bufkin, but he wasn't a prolific scorer at Michigan and there aren't too many scrawny 'plus' defenders in the NBA. To me the concern is the same, but Podziemski was the more complete offensive player this year at roughly the same age.

[WuTang_CMB]

Maxwell Lewis is interesting as well, safe pick with some upside potential, wish he was stronger and a better ball handler but he's a pro for sure

Complete garbage

[Psubs]

I just want a scoring guard who can shoot off of screens and create/shoot off of dribble handoffs. We have bigs who can pass and handle it and do that Sabonis/Draymond high post stuff in Barnes and Poeltl, but no Jamal Murray, Fox or Curry to profit off of it.

No idea if George, Smith or Bufkin can be that guy, but the number of star guards taken around #13 (Haliburton, Donovan Mitchell, Booker, Herro, Shai) suggests you roll the dice with whoever you like the most.

I can't believe Malik Monk isn't on this team. We could have signed him for 20M over 4 years when he left Charlotte in 2021. Ugh. That team is a mess and guys like the lesser McDaniels brother and Monk were worth picking up. I'd guess Houston has a guy like that too as they're consistently the worst coached team we've seen the last couple of years versus the Raptors (remember when they couldn't handle a full court press against us?), though not sure who.

Lakers should've kept Monk.

[Psubs]

Maxwell Lewis is interesting as well, safe pick with some upside potential, wish he was stronger and a better ball handler but he's a pro for sure

Complete garbage

Right. He's probably as much a "pro" as Patrick Baldwin. Not sure if either will crack a regular rotation.

[ArthurVandelay]

I’d much rather go with a player who produces incredible numbers while people continue to point to their limitations (like Podz, or previously Josh Giddey, etc) versus someone who hasn’t produced but has everyone drooling over their “potential” (like Lewis or Smith).

Stats aren’t the be all and end all but they do help paint a picture. Can anyone find an extremely inefficient NCAA scorer with less than 1 or negative DBPM who became a solid NBA player? Because by taking a guy like Smith or Lewis, you’re essentially hoping they will be the first one.

Fwiw I’m really high on Podz and think he’d be incredible next to Scottie.

[Psubs]

I only really pick up on draft prospects during the offseason.

Anyone have any thoughts on Nikola Durisic? Biggest knock on him is his athleticism but we've seen with other "non-athletic" players that their bbiq makes up for it.

I think I looked him up and he can't shoot the 3 at all. Oh actually before he was decent a couple of years ago.

Who's that pro that actually shot the 3 well and then got worse? Giannis!!! Maybe he tinkered and now shoots under 25% from 3 last season.

[Psubs]

I’d much rather go with a player who produces incredible numbers while people continue to point to their limitations (like Podz, or previously Josh Giddey, etc) versus someone who hasn’t produced but has everyone drooling over their “potential” (like Lewis or Smith).

Stats aren’t the be all and end all but they do help paint a picture. Can anyone find an extremely inefficient NCAA scorer with less than 1 or negative DBPM who became a solid NBA player? Because by taking a guy like Smith or Lewis, you’re essentially hoping they will be the first one.

Fwiw I’m really high on Podz and think he’d be incredible next to Scottie.

Sensabaugh produced incredible offensive numbers but so did Aaron Nesmith.

[WuTang_CMB]

Hawkins has sneaky athleticism that I think we can crack into for defensive upside. Also getting into the lane and trying to create/finish will be important for him to go from just a shooter to a real nba player that you can count on. He's definitely in the mix for me.

[Dalek]

I know the majority likes Sidy as the upside pick at 13, but how in good conscience do we select him over Canadian kid Leonard Miller who at 19 averaged 18/8/2 and 1 steal and 1 block playing on the same team?

Honestly, watching his film he is deceptively simple in what he does and shows better athleticism than I initially thought. Last year I thought this kid is too raw to play in the NBA and a year later he looks like this:

Read on Twitter

Swing skill for both is shooting, but Miller got pretty better as the season went on.

Also I just realized that one of the most underrated defenders I mentioned before, Emanuel Miller, is Leonard's older brother. It may be possible to get him undrafted.

Even if he's Chris Bosh lite, there's no real route to starting unless Siakam is traded, as Barnes is being built around. Sure if the Raptors got another pick in the 20's draft him.

Do you think he could be as good as Jeremy Sochan? Really the Raptors need shooting, playmaking and a POA defender (so Barnes isn't doing it). Thus the like for Cissoko who looks like he can do all 3, though shooting needs a lot of reps and may take 3-4 years. Can buy a shooter with the fulll MLE, like Eric Gordon, if they want to compete next year.

Sochan is a special defender and I would have a hard time putting him in that class. Miller plays with a very high motor and is a really impressive defender for a guy so inexperienced. Good feet and effort is there, but like anyone 6'10 you are going to have some trouble with fast athletic guards at times.

Spinella likes his defensive upside:

Miller’s real versatility and upside, in my eyes, comes on the defensive end. With his physical profile and natural strength, he can be a really important piece for an NBA team locking down opposing star wings, rotating as a help defender to protect the basket, and using his great rebounding prowess

https://theboxandone.substack.com/p/leonard-miller-2023-nba-draft-scouting

Read on Twitter

I think Toronto needs to draft the best player they can and one that will fit their identity. Miller is going to defend, rebound, move the ball and score. He isn't a spacer which is a problem, but his IQ and touch make me think he is a high feel prospect.

Leonard Miller has really surprised me in adapting to his role as a rebounder and finisher with the Ignite because from his Fort Erie time he had much more point-forward playmaking. With his touch and halfcourt offensive awareness he reminds me of Kyle Anderson. In transition he is a lot like Pascal being a great runner and can handle the ball well.

The path for him to start is tough where we are at present, but he can play a bench role at first.

[Psubs]

Terrence was a very, very physical player at FSU and Tre I think is just too weak to make plays inside the 3pt line but has that stepback game some of the stars do, so I'm not sure I see a ton of similarities.

Bufkin is so young and improved so much in a year that I don't want to cap his ceiling, but the vibe overall is a guy who will not create a ton at the NBA level (though again at his age that feels unfair to assume he can't keep improving his bag) but will do most things well off the catch and in transition. Maybe like Grayson Allen but quicker, which suggests a solid starter but not a star?

The case for Bufkin is that he has no huge red flags, he's the age of a freshman and he improved enough that he probably still has upside. The case against is that 6'4, 200 pound (let's say he adds 5 pounds) SGs who aren't as quick as PGs, don't really seem to have a place in starting lineups much anymore. I have no idea how to project his pick and roll ballhandling. He has good patience and can finish inside, but not the explosion of a Mitchell or Lillard. So, could he be another Flynn who does most things okay but just doesn't have a physical advantage and so struggles at the NBA level? Sure. But he's also 3 years younger than Flynn was when he was drafted, so he's not mostly finished developing.

I would say that Bufkin would be a bench combo guard unless gets into a perfect situation (like Anfernee Simons). Bufkin is better defensively but it took Simons 4 years. Maybe Malik Monk?

[Dalek]

Hawkins has sneaky athleticism that I think we can crack into for defensive upside. Also getting into the lane and trying to create/finish will be important for him to go from just a shooter to a real nba player that you can count on. He's definitely in the mix for me.

I want to really like the kid because the shooting is so good and he does have some hops. But, I don't think he will ever be combo guard because his playmaking has not been developed. My worry is he was on an elite college team that gave him a perfect role and he won't have the same opportunity in the NBA.

A guy like Podz who is a much more advanced shooter can also pass and his rebounding was elite for his size. Hawkins seems so one-dimensional.

Honestly, Toronto has traditionally struggled with bringing in shooters. If Hawkins struggles he just doesn't have anything else to get playing time. If we go guard we need at least secondary playmaking and defensive upside to go with the scoring. It seems like a given to me.

[Psubs]

https://theboxandone.substack.com/p/leonard-miller-2023-nba-draft-scouting

Read on Twitter

I think Toronto needs to draft the best player they can and one that will fit their identity. Miller is going to defend, rebound, move the ball and score. He isn't a spacer which is a problem, but his IQ and touch make me think he is a high feel prospect.

Leonard Miller has really surprised me in adapting to his role as a rebounder and finisher with the Ignite because from his Fort Erie time he had much more point-forward playmaking. With his touch and halfcourt offensive awareness he reminds me of Kyle Anderson. In transition he is a lot like Pascal being a great runner and can handle the ball well.

The path for him to start is tough where we are at present, but he can play a bench role at first.

Rebounding isn't a real need with Poeltl grabbing drebs and Scottie on the orebs. Miller is going from forward to getting some guard play-making, but you know who was on the same team, was a PG that just grew to apparently 6'8.

Who had more dunks, Miller or Cissoko?

[Spates]

Fred is a success story, I'm not discounting that. But I'm also not one to think that an all-star nod means you're an integral piece of a team in contention for the championship. I'm pointing towards limitations affecting ceiling and impact. Fred's limitations make him a terrible finisher at the rim. His largest contribution isn't in being a lead ball handlers, it was in point of attack defense and 3pt shooting.

My larger point is that the blurbs you posted for "unathletic" players are just labels. Butler, Middleton, SGA, Booker, Brunson, Herro, etc are plenty athletic. Unless you're arguing that they are good despite their lack of athleticism. They may not be the most explosive but they have a solid base. Podz is different in that he has actual limitations. In watching him play he's noticeably less impressive physically than the names you listed.

Also, I was referring to prolific shooters, not scorers @ 13. Based on what I've seen I can't see him being any more than a shooter. JJ Reddick syndrome. And actually JJ is a pretty impressive athlete in his own right. He was quick and had insane endurance. But yes, Podz is a more complete player, I personally doubt his abilities scale.

Playstyle exposes limitations. Depending on how players choose to play they're are defined by what they can't do as much as they are defined by what they can. Our chorus on Fred was much quieter when he had less creation responsibilities.

[Psubs]

Hawkins has sneaky athleticism that I think we can crack into for defensive upside. Also getting into the lane and trying to create/finish will be important for him to go from just a shooter to a real nba player that you can count on. He's definitely in the mix for me.

I want to really like the kid because the shooting is so good and he does have some hops. But, I don't think he will ever be combo guard because his playmaking has not been developed. My worry is he was on an elite college team that gave him a perfect role and he won't have the same opportunity in the NBA.

A guy like Podz who is a much more advanced shooter can also pass and his rebounding was elite for his size. Hawkins seems so one-dimensional.

Honestly, Toronto has traditionally struggled with bringing in shooters. If Hawkins struggles he just doesn't have anything else to get playing time. If we go guard we need at least secondary playmaking and defensive upside to go with the scoring. It seems like a given to me.

Hawkins is like a fitter Cam Thomas.

[WuTang_CMB]

Hawkins has sneaky athleticism that I think we can crack into for defensive upside. Also getting into the lane and trying to create/finish will be important for him to go from just a shooter to a real nba player that you can count on. He's definitely in the mix for me.

I want to really like the kid because the shooting is so good and he does have some hops. But, I don't think he will ever be combo guard because his playmaking has not been developed. My worry is he was on an elite college team that gave him a perfect role and he won't have the same opportunity in the NBA.

A guy like Podz who is a much more advanced shooter can also pass and his rebounding was elite for his size. Hawkins seems so one-dimensional.

Honestly, Toronto has traditionally struggled with bringing in shooters. If Hawkins struggles he just doesn't have anything else to get playing time. If we go guard we need at least secondary playmaking and defensive upside to go with the scoring. It seems like a given to me.

If the defense can get there and I don't see why it can't (he's not a terrible defender by any means), he'll get consistent minutes with us cuz the shooting is just too good to pass up on. Hurley ran real offensive sets that were dynamic and it worked. If he's defending and running all over in a real offensive system and hitting shots, that's a big plus and you take that all day at 13. Raps are way behind the NBA in shooting. If we are running it back, we need to improve somewhere. And I still see upside in other areas for JH