2023 Draft Discussion Part 4

[ATLTimekeeper]

Bolded best results

# games over 20 points
Podziemski, 15
Bufkin, 7
Treq, 11
George, 12
JHS, 5
Jones, 9
Sasser, 13
Cissoko, 8

# games over 50 FG%
Podziemski, 13
Bufkin, 16
Terq, 8
George, 4
JHS, 11
Jones, 21
Sasser, 13
Cissoko, 12

# games under 40 FG%
Podziemski, 7
Bufkin, 9
Terq, 21
George, 18
JHS, 15
Jones, 9
Sasser, 13
Cissoko, 11

[Yallbecrazy]

There are so many players in this draft that have the potential to be quality role players with starter level upside.

This is such a good year to have multiple picks in the 15 to 25 range.

Make it happen Masai!

Every year people say this as secondary prospects get hyped or overhyped. In some years there are 20 guys like Dick, Wallace, Black, Podz, Bufkin, Leonard Miller, Cissoko, Coulibaly. Often only a handful find success in the pros. As much as I like Wallace, Dick, Cissoko, and Podz I think the line of positive starting players in that group is 1.5 as defined by a career BPM > 1.0.

I wouldn't mind trading the pick entirely, but Bobby and Masai have talked about the need for their scouts to feel involved in the team and if you are trading all your picks then they may check out in future years as their work is useless.

edit:
Normally guys who struggled as much as Nick Smith, GG Jackson, JHS did end up falling into the mid 20s to 2nd round range despite their high RSCI rankings coming into the season. The fact they are still being hyped as 1st round, let alone lottery guys shows you there haven't been guys to take their place.

[Dalek]

https://theboxandone.substack.com/p/leonard-miller-2023-nba-draft-scouting

Read on Twitter

I think Toronto needs to draft the best player they can and one that will fit their identity. Miller is going to defend, rebound, move the ball and score. He isn't a spacer which is a problem, but his IQ and touch make me think he is a high feel prospect.

Leonard Miller has really surprised me in adapting to his role as a rebounder and finisher with the Ignite because from his Fort Erie time he had much more point-forward playmaking. With his touch and halfcourt offensive awareness he reminds me of Kyle Anderson. In transition he is a lot like Pascal being a great runner and can handle the ball well.

The path for him to start is tough where we are at present, but he can play a bench role at first.

Rebounding isn't a real need with Poeltl grabbing drebs and Scottie on the orebs. Miller is going from forward to getting some guard play-making, but you know who was on the same team, was a PG that just grew to apparently 6'8.

I don't know if I can see Sidy as a lead guard. He looks like a fun passer and good size as a guard, but I don't have a terrific feel for his handle. Can this guy get low with his dribble and not be a turnover machine at the next level? Could he handle a double-team and not pick up his dribble or make the pass quickly enough? Can he guard quicker players? I remember Jeff Dowtin Jr. torturing the Ignite down the stretch and I don't think they used Sidy to guard him much.

To me, Miller can play either forward position right now and will be a connector type that could play over Boucher or Achuiwa. With Sidy he is like a Bruno type that might take a few years and is a mystery whether he ends up as a PG or a 3 and D forward.

[Smalltown]

But I'm also not one to think that an all-star nod means you're an integral piece of a team in contention for the championship.

I mean he already was?

[Spates]

But I'm also not one to think that an all-star nod means you're an integral piece of a team in contention for the championship.

I mean he already was?

What's your point? Mine is role dependent efficacy and efficiency.

[Smalltown]

But I'm also not one to think that an all-star nod means you're an integral piece of a team in contention for the championship.

I mean he already was?

What's your point? My is role dependent efficacy and efficiency.

Point is you're inferring he can't be an integral piece on a Championship Contender. The fact is he has already proved he can.

[ATLTimekeeper]

My larger point is that the blurbs you posted for "unathletic" players are just labels. Butler, Middleton, SGA, Booker, Brunson, Herro, etc are plenty athletic. Unless you're arguing that they are good despite their lack of athleticism. They may not be the most explosive but they have a solid base. Podz is different in that he has actual limitations. In watching him play he's noticeably less impressive physically than the names you listed.

Well, yeah, these are labels. These are scouting labels that get removed or dismissed 'after the fact.' You're arguing that what you're seeing is different with this player than what all those pro scouts and draftniks saw when they were drawing up their analysis. I'm arguing that it's a common underestimation of ability.

[Spates]

I mean he already was?

What's your point? My is role dependent efficacy and efficiency.

Point is you're inferring he can't be an integral piece on a Championship Contender. The fact is he has already proved he can.

That's not my point. The point I'm always trying to make is that you need an alignment of role and ability. Within the defined offensive parameters of the 2019 team, Fred was integral. Not because because of his ability to create but because of his shooting. He was actually terrible until his shot started falling. That alone speaks to his limitations. Current Fred is outside of his comfort zone and it impedes high level offense. My point isn't that Fred is some terrible player. My issue is concerned with his ideal role and future usage given his asking price. I'm keeping in mind the developmental opportunity cost of keeping the ball in his hands. The experiment should be over. But given the talk around role that he himself initiated, I question his desire and willingness to be offball.

[Smalltown]

What's your point? My is role dependent efficacy and efficiency.

Point is you're inferring he can't be an integral piece on a Championship Contender. The fact is he has already proved he can.

That's not my point. The point I'm always trying to make is that you need an alignment of role and ability. Within the defined offensive parameters of the 2019 team, Fred was integral. Not because because of his ability to create but because of his shooting. He was actually terrible until his shot started falling. That alone speaks to his limitations. Current Fred is outside of his comfort zone and it impedes high level offense. My point isn't that Fred is some terrible player. My issue is concerned with his ideal role and future usage given his asking price. I'm keeping in mind the developmental opportunity cost of keeping the ball in his hands. The experiment should be over. But given the talk around role that he himself initiated, I question his desire and willingness to be offball.

I get what you're trying to say. But he's already proven he can do it. So to say otherwise is not factual. There are plenty of arguments to make against keeping Fred. But him being able to be an integral piece on a Championship Contender isn't one of them.

[Dalek]

There are so many players in this draft that have the potential to be quality role players with starter level upside.

This is such a good year to have multiple picks in the 15 to 25 range.

Make it happen Masai!

Every year people say this as secondary prospects get hyped or overhyped. In some years there are 20 guys like Dick, Wallace, Black, Podz, Bufkin, Leonard Miller, Cissoko, Coulibaly. Often only a handful find success in the pros. As much as I like Wallace, Dick, Cissoko, and Podz I think the line of positive starting players in that group is 1.5 as defined by a career BPM > 1.0.

I wouldn't mind trading the pick entirely, but Bobby and Masai have talked about the need for their scouts to feel involved in the team and if you are trading all your picks then they may check out in future years as their work is useless.

edit:
Normally guys who struggled as much as Nick Smith, GG Jackson, JHS did end up falling into the mid 20s to 2nd round range despite their high RSCI rankings coming into the season. The fact they are still being hyped as 1st round, let alone lottery guys shows you there haven't been guys to take their place.

I have to admit I was extremely hyped about his class coming in and the big name guys were kind of disappointing, but overall there is a lot of good depth in this class. Getting a Sasser or Strawther at pick 30 is going to be great value. The first 11 picks I think you range from All-NBA potential to quality starters on playoff teams.

12-20 will be where you will see risk takers and probably where you will see some busts.

It is still early in the draft process given we don't even have a set lottery order. I kind of expect a lot of movement.

[Spates]

My larger point is that the blurbs you posted for "unathletic" players are just labels. Butler, Middleton, SGA, Booker, Brunson, Herro, etc are plenty athletic. Unless you're arguing that they are good despite their lack of athleticism. They may not be the most explosive but they have a solid base. Podz is different in that he has actual limitations. In watching him play he's noticeably less impressive physically than the names you listed.

Well, yeah, these are labels. These are scouting labels that get removed or dismissed 'after the fact.' You're arguing that what you're seeing is different with this player than what all those pro scouts and draftniks saw when they were drawing up their analysis. I'm arguing that it's a common underestimation of ability.

Honestly, when players are labelled unathletic they're typically being compared to the upper echelon NBA athletes rather than the majority. The guys mentioned earlier are more than functionally athletic enough for the NBA, but they might not be the twitchiest or best leapers.

I'm in complete agreement with scouts and draftniks on Podz. I think he's actually unathletic by average NBA standards. But I wholeheartedly agree with you that ability is frequently underestimated. Podz is just an example where we disagree. And simply on grounds of athleticism. I thinks he's skilled but too limited athletically to maintain his playstyle at the next level. First-step is important for smaller guards. And if you strip away his ability to do certain things on the court, what are you left with? Shooting certainly. But then why Podz or Hawkins or the Michigan guy?

For that matter athletic ability is often overestimated. You gotta watch tape and see combine numbers. You don't have to be a scout to identify someone's functional athleticism. We've all watched enough hoops, Olympics, or whatever else to identify these things. Maybe I'll change my tune after the combine.

[Yallbecrazy]

My larger point is that the blurbs you posted for "unathletic" players are just labels. Butler, Middleton, SGA, Booker, Brunson, Herro, etc are plenty athletic. Unless you're arguing that they are good despite their lack of athleticism. They may not be the most explosive but they have a solid base. Podz is different in that he has actual limitations. In watching him play he's noticeably less impressive physically than the names you listed.

Well, yeah, these are labels. These are scouting labels that get removed or dismissed 'after the fact.' You're arguing that what you're seeing is different with this player than what all those pro scouts and draftniks saw when they were drawing up their analysis. I'm arguing that it's a common underestimation of ability.

I mean if an unathletic player has the same impact as a very athletic player that means the unathletic guy is much more skilled. We tend to think that skilled players can't improve their skills a lot more, but they often do. In fact an underclassmen 35% 3 pt shooter in college on high volume can become a 40% 3pt shooter in the pros more frequently than a 55% college free throw shooter who doesn't take 3s can become a 30% 3 pt shooter in the pros.

Podz isn't outlier skilled, but he is one of the most skilled guys in the draft and he shows a high IQ, and outlier rebounding which shows an incredible determination / competitive nature. I wouldn't bet against players like that.

[Spates]

Point is you're inferring he can't be an integral piece on a Championship Contender. The fact is he has already proved he can.

That's not my point. The point I'm always trying to make is that you need an alignment of role and ability. Within the defined offensive parameters of the 2019 team, Fred was integral. Not because because of his ability to create but because of his shooting. He was actually terrible until his shot started falling. That alone speaks to his limitations. Current Fred is outside of his comfort zone and it impedes high level offense. My point isn't that Fred is some terrible player. My issue is concerned with his ideal role and future usage given his asking price. I'm keeping in mind the developmental opportunity cost of keeping the ball in his hands. The experiment should be over. But given the talk around role that he himself initiated, I question his desire and willingness to be offball.

I get what you're trying to say. But he's already proven he can do it. So to say otherwise is not factual. There are plenty of arguments to make against keeping Fred. But him being able to be an integral piece on a Championship Contender isn't one of them.

I never said Fred isn't capable of being an integral piece of a championship team. I said being an all-star doesn't guarantee being an integral part of a championship team.

[Spates]

My larger point is that the blurbs you posted for "unathletic" players are just labels. Butler, Middleton, SGA, Booker, Brunson, Herro, etc are plenty athletic. Unless you're arguing that they are good despite their lack of athleticism. They may not be the most explosive but they have a solid base. Podz is different in that he has actual limitations. In watching him play he's noticeably less impressive physically than the names you listed.

Well, yeah, these are labels. These are scouting labels that get removed or dismissed 'after the fact.' You're arguing that what you're seeing is different with this player than what all those pro scouts and draftniks saw when they were drawing up their analysis. I'm arguing that it's a common underestimation of ability.

I mean if an unathletic player has the same impact as a very athletic player that means the unathletic guy is much more skilled. We tend to think that skilled players can't improve their skills a lot more, but they often do. In fact an underclassmen 35% 3 pt shooter in college on high volume can become a 40% 3pt shooter in the pros more frequently than a 55% college free throw shooter who doesn't take 3s can become a 30% 3 pt shooter in the pros.

Podz isn't outlier skilled, but he is one of the most skilled guys in the draft and he shows a high IQ, and outlier rebounding which shows an incredible determination / competitive nature. I wouldn't bet against players like that.

Sure. That's one way to look at it. He's definitely skilled. But athleticism determines what you're able to do in the court. Some effective "unathletic" playrs have their limitations factored into their game. Kyle Anderson for example. Some players are more rely more heavily on it —Ja Morant. It's all about creating space. And what I don't see is a high level of space creation for Podz at his current level. For all his talent when the players get stronger, longer and faster it's hard to picture him keeping up.

[OakleyDokely]

People tend to go with the "he's athletic" description when there's not much else positive to point to. Easiest way to explain away poor shooting or poor efficiency -- but he's athletic! if he ever develops a shot watch out!

[Steelo Green]

Masai is probably looking for someone closer to the age of 30 who has experience that trumps talent.

[OakleyDokely]

Ya, Masai's history at the draft suggests he goes for experience over talent. Great observation.

[DreamTeam09]

Maxwell Lewis is interesting as well, safe pick with some upside potential, wish he was stronger and a better ball handler but he's a pro for sure

Complete garbage

Right. He's probably as much a "pro" as Patrick Baldwin. Not sure if either will crack a regular rotation.

Why is he complete garbage, and wont be a rotational player?

[ArthurVandelay]

Remember when Doncic wouldn’t succeed in the nba because lack of athletic ability, inability to create space, inability to get past defender, weak first step?

Ayton
Bagley
Young
JJJr
Doncic


It’s a pretty extreme example but sometimes we put a lot of effort convincing ourselves something isn’t what it clearly is, whether it be an extremely impactful basketball player or an inefficient chucker.

[WuTang_CMB]

Another pro for Podz is that he didnt start playing ball unti the 8th grade. So another late bloomer in the works? Made a good decision transfering to SC. Impressive numbers