The Official 2023 Draft Thread

[Dat2U]

Doing a deeper dive into Bilal Coulibaly, he's like a rich man's Thabo Sefolosha to me. I don't see the shot creation or creativity to be a major scoring option. I see a good athlete who's a plus defender with raw ball-skills and jumper that one may or may not buy. His release doesn't look very fast to me either. I think he's probably a mid-1st rounder like Thabo was and he's certainly not a guy I'd be trading down for or sacrificing assets to get.

[NatP4]

I appreciate Nate throwing together the chart, but it was extremely flukey with 28 being the worst pick in the draft over a 15 year span, and 9 being the next worst pick in that span. Again, if you use 11/13/27, all of them have produced better results than the top overall pick.

The #9 pick was literally THE BEST pick in the draft relative to it's slot. It's flukey alright. But flukey in the other direction. It outperformed picks #4, #6, #7 and #8 despite being in the portion of the draft where the dropoff for each pick is precipitous.

Chart of the production of each pick since 1980 with win shares as the metric:



Utilizing All-Star appearances as the metric:



Data is from here:

https://thedatajocks.com/nba-draft-pick-values/

Note, this article was from 2021 so they probably ignored the couple of drafts just prior to that, but a handful of recent draft picks wouldn't seriously alter a chart based on data from the last 40 years.

Come on now. I looked at 2004-2021. The #9 pick WAS flukey in a negative manner. No idea before that. Obviously a different story. Flukey in the other direction, fine. Let’s label things accurately.

But again “all star selections” is so obviously an awful criteria. Win shares isn’t great either. I guess it just proves the point though. If you add the win share totals from 9/16/28, it’s significantly higher than #2. Of course, 9 was flukey from that timeframe, have to run an average of every pick that range.

[doclinkin]

...Wouldn’t someone need to come up with an evaluation for every single pick in the sample period, come up with some kind of score and average out the pick scores within the range of the discussed picks?. Once you do that, it’s going to be obvious that a pick in 9ish range, 16ish range, 28ish range, all added together, is worth a significantly higher score than #2, no?

I think that's essentially what Pelton did to get the following results: http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/2/kevin-pelton-2.

By the way, based on his pick-values, it looks like 2 wouldn't get you 9, 16 & 28. Not that his values are conclusive: far from it.

The #9 pick was literally THE BEST pick in the draft relative to it's slot. It's flukey alright. But flukey in the other direction. It outperformed picks #4, #6, #7 and #8 despite being in the portion of the draft where the dropoff for each pick is precipitous.

Chart of the production of each pick since 1980 with win shares as the metric:



Utilizing All-Star appearances as the metric:



Data is from here:

https://thedatajocks.com/nba-draft-pick-values/

Note, this article was from 2021 so they probably ignored the couple of drafts just prior to that, but a handful of recent draft picks wouldn't seriously alter a chart based on data from the last 40 years.

Which is the argument against the notion that there is an "extremely weak" correlation between pick position and player value. IIRC Kevin Pelton was using some adjusted plus/minus stat to come up with his rankings of pick position. The conclusion seems to be for any single pick in the lottery you have a greater chance of selecting a good player than you do with a pick outside of the lottery. But in the mid to late 1st round that chance flattens out.

Spoiler:

I recall some back and forth about it on the ABPRMetrics message board. If my memory isn't fuzzy he had a thread on it but removed it when he decided to write an article about it. But I haven't searched the archivesfor it).

Nate's chart makes the same case. Yes, there are always a few picks lower down that perform better than those picked before them. Still, earlier picks have a slightly better chance of being a hit than those later on.

In that respect "slightly better" goes both ways. If the correlation between pick and success is stronger at the top, then in some years it makes sense to trade up in the lottery to get that guy before he is gone, or if you miss on him, to still have a solid chance of a productive one with the pick you did take. There are more and bigger fish in the water, if you are spearfishing and miss, then you still have a chance to hit a good one with your overshoot

HOWEVER, if that option is not available then the Pelton chart suggests that the PIF method of spearfishing with a shotgun blast may also pan out. If you are caught near that elbow-bend where the chart slides off to the right then yeah you might risk a few extra shots at it to see who you can hit.

Not every draft has the same level of top talent, so it seems to me a calculation that might shift from year to year. I fully expect over the next few years the NIL/transfer portal era will drain some players away from an early leap to the Big Leagues. Seems to me that will make scouting easier in a few years, where you can clearly see a track record of development and success from the larger pool of players who choose to stick in school, or jump to a program that better suits their talents. Also seems to me the pool of players jumping to the Bigs might be watered down for a couple years, where the value of picks at the top of the draft will remain the same, but those lower down will be from a pool of players who were NOT able to earn top dollar from boosters etc looking to retain their skills.

If it's me in any trade I would be looking for extra picks that are 2-3 years away (especially from a win-now team who might be willing to pay a great deal for a Brad Beal or a playoff-tested Kuzma). You will be able to select among a larger pool of better seasoned players with honed fundamental skills, with more data to show who can play. 2nd round picks in those years will be more valuable, as there will always be prejudice to snatch at underdeveloped one-and-done hypertalents.

To me the chart also suggests that outside of the elite top talent (2? 3?) it might be a good gamble to trade down, but only to slip a slot or two. A Luka/Trae trade. Listen for offers in any draft, if someone just below you shows a sweet deal, consider it -- especially if you are ambivalent about the calibre of the players available at the spot.

Anyway, the point is there are a few different ways to shave the %'s in your favor. All of them though suggest you should be stockpiling picks, so you have ammo either for more opportunities to select, or to package them to trade up for the right guy at the right time in the right year. IF you have the right scouts and right GM.

Or a time machine, you know. Shrug.

[doclinkin]

http://godismyjudgeok.com/DStats/APBRmetrics_Old/

Neat to see our own WizardsKev in that archive. Plus Daniel Rosenbaum (nerd who published a few stat analysis articles then was snapped up by the Sonics I think) among others who pioneered efforts to Moneyball the NBA.

Eli Witus is another one. I think he is still with the Rockets. Also Ed Kupfer. Nice to see how many got jobs out of it.

Interesting if dated paper on the same topic:

http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/20180101_SSM_Intro.htm

[nate33]

Come on now. I looked at 2004-2021. The #9 pick WAS flukey in a negative manner. No idea before that. Obviously a different story. Flukey in the other direction, fine. Let’s label things accurately.

But again “all star selections” is so obviously an awful criteria. Win shares isn’t great either. I guess it just proves the point though. If you add the win share totals from 9/16/28, it’s significantly higher than #2. Of course, 9 was flukey from that timeframe, have to run an average of every pick that range.

This is a really minor issue, but I'm not going to let you get away with being totally wrong when trying to make your point. You said:

I appreciate Nate throwing together the chart, but it was extremely flukey with 28 being the worst pick in the draft over a 15 year span, and 9 being the next worst pick in that span.

And that is absolutely FALSE. The #9 pick was quite good. To call in the worst pick in that span is completely and totally wrong.

Since 2004, the #9 pick has included:
6 All Stars: Iguodala, Noah, DeRozan, Hayward, Kemba, Drummond
2 Solid Starters: Poeltl, Augustin
2 Useful rotation players: Rui, Kaminsky


By comparison, The #7 pick has produced:
4 All Stars: Markkanen, J.Randle, Curry, Deng
6 Solid Starters: W.Carter, J.Murray, Barnes, Biyombo, Monroe, E.Gordon
2 Useful Rotation Players: C.White, McLemore, Brewer, Foye, Villanueva

The #8 pick has produced:
0 All Stars:
3 Solid Starters: KCP, Aminu, Gay
5 Useful Rotation Players: Hayes, Sexton, Ross, Wright, Frye

The #10 pick has produced:
3 All Stars: Paul George, B. Lopez, A Bynum
2 Solid Starters: Mikal Bridges, McCollum
5 Useful Rotation Players: Reddish, Z Collins, Winslow, E.Payton, Jennings

The #11 pick has produced:
3 All Stars: SGA, Sabonis, Klay
3 Solid Starters: Cameron Johnson, Turner, Redick
6 Useful Rotation Players: Monk, McDermott, MCW, M.Leonard, T.Williams, J.Bayless

The #12 pick has produced:
0 All Stars:
4 Solid Starters: PJ Washingon, Miles Bridges, T.Prince, Adams
6 Useful Rotation Players: Kennard, Lyles, Saric, Lamb, Burks, Thad Young

The #9 pick is easily better than the #8 pick, and #12 pick. It's not even debatable.

The #7 pick was comparable, with fewer All-Stars but more solid starters and, of course, Curry. But one should expect the #7 pick to be better.

You might be able to squint at #10 and say it is equal to #9. Paul George is the best guy out of both picks. And McCollum and Bridges, though technically not All-Stars, are arguably better than #9 all stars Kemba and Hayward. But #10 has nobody behind their top 5 guys.

It's a reach, but maybe you can argue that #11 was comparable to #9 as well. Klay and SGA are probably better than all of the #9 guys. But the #11 pick has very little depth compared to #9.

But it's just absurd to argue that #9 was the second worst pick of all. Absolutely false.

[NatP4]

Yeah, I misspoke on 9. I did an evaluation on picks 1-30 from 2013-2018, not 2004-2019, and 9/17/18/21/26/28 were the worst picks. I don’t know why I thought I looked at 2005-2019, that obviously includes guys like Kemba, Hayward, Derozan. (Not Iguodala, as you cannot once again, randomly expand the sample to fit a narrative).

From 2013-2018, #8&#9 were much worse than 10/11/12/13/14/15. But that’s irrelevant, as your chart looked at 2005-2019.

However, if you expanded the chart to include 2020/2021, that would include James Wiseman and Jalen Green at #2 overall. Davion Mitchell/Deni Avdija/Isaiah Stewart/Alperen Sengun/Jaden McDaniels/Jaden Springer at 9/16/28.

[NatP4]

This would be insane.

Read on Twitter

[Rafael122]

I'm not trying to say that Cade or Ivey should prohibit the Pistons from taking Scoot, but it would be wild if they took another point/combo guard when there is a clear need for a wing.

I think Miller would go at 2 in that scenario, Scoot to Portland b/c Portland can't pass up on talent regardless of who's there.

[payitforward]

Yeah, I misspoke on 9. I did an evaluation on picks 1-30 from 2013-2018, not 2004-2019, and 9/17/18/21/26/28 were the worst picks. I don’t know why I thought I looked at 2005-2019, that obviously includes guys like Kemba, Hayward, Derozan. (Not Iguodala, as you cannot once again, randomly expand the sample to fit a narrative).

From 2013-2018, #8&#9 were much worse than 10/11/12/13/14/15. But that’s irrelevant, as your chart looked at 2005-2019.

However, if you expanded the chart to include 2020/2021, that would include James Wiseman and Jalen Green at #2 overall. Davion Mitchell/Deni Avdija/Isaiah Stewart/Alperen Sengun/Jaden McDaniels/Jaden Springer at 9/16/28.

Anyway, it's hard to see how these histories could be predictive. Would be pretty weird.

[NatP4]

I'm not trying to say that Cade or Ivey should prohibit the Pistons from taking Scoot, but it would be wild if they took another point/combo guard when there is a clear need for a wing.

I think Miller would go at 2 in that scenario, Scoot to Portland b/c Portland can't pass up on talent regardless of who's there.

Would be pretty hilarious if Detroit turned 4 consecutive top 10 picks into Scoot/Cunningham/Ivey/Hayes.

[doclinkin]

The more I look at it, the more I'm comfortable with our draft chances. Basically even chance at jumping to the top 4, sticking at 8, or falling to 9.

Even at 8 or 9, it looks like one of Cam Whitmore, Taylor Hendricks, or Gradey Dick will be there. Each of whom looks to have a ready role in the league. There are few players in the draft range that I don't want (not so excited about Anthony Black) but there are players above this slot that look like they may have volatile draft possibilities, so I expect to be surprised with what names on the board by our pick.

No idea what happens when the Thompson brothers get into workouts and interviews. Jarace Walker look like he could slip into this range if someone explodes at the combine or a team falls in love with a guy at workouts. On defense I love his game if that is the direction the team chooses to go.

I'm comfortable sticking at our spot and listening to offers. I like players later down. I even like the idea of bouncing to 3 or 4 and dropping back a slot or two if a tempting deal materializes. With a new GM we have a re-set button on optimism, even if history suggests otherwise.

I'd love to trade up in the 2nd round, since it looks like there are talents that will slip out of the first but not as far as 42 and 59. Still, guys I like are still on the board in most mocks at that spot. Hell tankathon has us taking Andre Jackson Jr of Uconn with one of those picks. He's a solid guy. Multi position defender and facilitator, Tommy would have loved him. I don't like that his FT shooting has gotten worse over the years, needs a shooting guru, but otherwise he's intriguing. My guy Zach Edey is next on the board. Anyway. Right. Not hating this draft. There are strong chances to get a good one, if a new GM is any good at talent evaluation.

[dobrojim]

When I look at the Tankethon summary of Whitmore, it seems as though most of his
projection (of being a high pick) is a result of being young. His stat strengths vs stat
weaknesses leave me wondering. It's a stark contrast in that little box between the
results of Whitmore vs TDJ (to take one example). Being young and already good is
often a powerful indicator. Is it reliable safe indicator compared to demonstrated
production and results? IDK.

[badinage]

If I were the NBA commish, I would punish teams for being dishonorable and compromising the integrity of the league.

Detroit shut down CC way early, and basically stopped playing competitive ball before the all-star game. Houston didn’t really put forth an honest effort in trying to compete. Portland shamelessly gave up with about 25 games to go. Charlotte: see Detroit — they shut down Lamelo, and didn’t even try to disguise their shamelessness. Indiana, in the final month of the season, was clearly trying to lose.

Who does that leave with a chance to land the top pick, in Commissioner Badinage’s NBA?

San Antonio. Orlando. Washington. Utah. Dallas.

San Antonio, Orlando, Washington in the Top 3.

THAT, friends, is what a just and equitable league looks like.

[Dat2U]

I feel the Scoot wanting to be the 'Wizard' thing will be prophetic. Wizards get the #2 pick and go with the consensus choice which is probably the right one in this case.

[NatP4]

I feel the Scoot wanting to be the 'Wizard' thing will be prophetic. Wizards get the #2 pick and go with the consensus choice which is probably the right one in this case.

Huge mistake IMO. Thompson twins are both going to be better, especially Ausar.

[NatP4]

I think it’s

1. Wembanyama
2. Ausar
3. Amen
4. Miller
5. Scoot

Dreaming about landing pick #4 and taking a Thompson twin.

[gambitx777]

I wouldn't touch the Thompson's with a ten foot pole I'd trade back first



Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

[dobrojim]

Watching Wiggins have another solid game last night vs LAL left me wondering
if Miller is going to be the guy that causes regret to the team(s) that passed
on drafting him.

[NatP4]

Have seen a couple more mock drafts with Ausar dropping all the way to the wizards. Totally ridiculous, but would be a home run.

Don’t think the magic would really let that happen. I expect them to be competing for a top seed in the East as soon as next year if they land Ausar.

[DCZards]

Watching Wiggins have another solid game last night vs LAL left me wondering
if Miller is going to be the guy that causes regret to the team(s) that passed
on drafting him.

I expect Miller to be the second pick in the draft.