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Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread

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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#321 » by payitforward » Sat May 6, 2023 3:26 am

nate33 wrote:
payitforward wrote:At a certain point all this stuff just becomes a matter of assertion -- say it twice & it's more likely to be true than the first time; say it repeatedly & how can anyone doubt it? For that reason, I'm not going to respond by saying, "sorry, no. Porzingis wasn't as good as any of those guys." I'm just going to say that I would expect someone who claims that Porzingis is the 6th best Center in the game to back it up with numbers.

Not that there are no numbers at all to point to! KP scored a lot of points at an above average TS%. That was a very good thing to do, a thing very few players can do -- meaning that it's evidence of his being good. But once points & TS% are significant evidence, then so are other numbers that can be shown to have a relationship to game outcomes -- b/c good in a competitive sport is quantitative not qualitative. This ain't ballet.

Thus...

...which is better 6 offensive rebounds or 2.2 offensive rebounds? Over the same number of minutes. & which is better 13 defensive rebounds or 10 defensive rebounds?

If you don't think there's an obvious answer to that question, i.e. if you can't say which is better until you know the names involved, then no discussion of how good a player is compared to other players is possible -- people have to agree on the meaning of numbers to compare two players.

Those numbers & their differences have to count as ways that player A is better than player B -- assuming that A is the guy that got both the bigger numbers -- in the same sense that more points & a higher TS% count.

If they do, then great -- a discussion is possible. If they don't, i.e. if you have to know both A's & B's names first before you can decide whether & how much numbers matter, then no comparison of players is possible. In fact no assessment of an individual player is possible either unless the answer is in the numbers independent of the player's name.

If not, it's just assertion, as I wrote above. & if the assertion is taken seriously here on the Wizards Board, well... that doesn't add much to the evidential basis, does it?

I did back it up with numbers. I posted the EPM chart. EPM is the publicly available advanced stat that is highest regarding among NBA front offices.

The problem is, you don't believe any statistical analysis except your own hard-headed version of calculating possessions gained versus possessions lost on an individual basis and refusing to factor team effects like floor spacing and the diminishing returns in efficiency that comes with high usage. We're not going to make any headway in our disagreements so I'm not going to waste the time trying.

What? I waste my time trying -- why shouldn't you? :)

I'd love to learn more about EPM, nate, but I can't find the formula explaining how it's calculated.

I'm sure I'm not alone in being interested. Why don't you simply explain how to calculate a player's epm.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#322 » by AFM » Sat May 6, 2023 3:38 am

PIF, as an engineer, you are going to drive me crazy. I know you don't think that you HAVE to know the formula of a metric to know if it's valuable or not. It's more of a "Nice To Know".
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#323 » by nate33 » Sat May 6, 2023 2:20 pm

payitforward wrote:What? I waste my time trying -- why shouldn't you? :)

I'd love to learn more about EPM, nate, but I can't find the formula explaining how it's calculated.

I'm sure I'm not alone in being interested. Why don't you simply explain how to calculate a player's epm.

I don't know how it's calculated. What I do know is that it produces results that very much jibe with how smart GM's, front offices, and media guys rank players. The top 15-20 EPM guys are all guys who made All-NBA or would have made All-NBA if not for injuries. The top 10 guys include all the guys who are on most people's short list for top 7 players (Jokic, Embiid, Giannis, Curry, Luka, plus Durant, Davis and Kawhi if they could stay healthy) plus it includes the 1 other guy that SHOULD be on everyone's short list, Jimmy Butler. There are virtually no outliers and no guys who are inexplicably omitted from the top of the list. Here is a screenshot of the top of the list:
Image
Image


All the guys at the top of the list are also max players, suggesting that GM's and coaches value these guys. All the guys play heavy minutes when healthy, so you don't have to make convoluted justifications as to why there are a bunch of low-minute guys ranking at the top of the list. Compare this list to your favorite win's produced statistic and we see how ridiculous your favored system is:

Image

Why in the world has Brandon Clarke played just 1090 minutes? He's the 5th best player in the league and his idiot coach won't play him?

Why isn't Walker Kessler on the Mr. Rushmore of greatest rookies of all time? The guy is basically Bill Russell in his first year, yet nobody has heard of him and Utah only played him 1700 minutes.

And Delon Wright has had the greatest mid-career improvement of all time. It's amazing! He went from a nobody found in free agency for $8M and became a franchise player better than Giannis, SGA, and Curry! Why the heck was Sheppard fired? He just made the greatest free agency acquisition of all time!

And what the heck is all this buzz about for Joel Embiid? MVP? Hah! The guy isn't even as good as Thad Young and Javonte Green!

And look at Memphis! They have the greatest front line of all time that would put the 86 Celtics to shame! I mean, Xavier Tillman, Brandon Clarke and Steven Adams? What a trio! Oh wait. You're telling me that 2 of those guys come off the bench? And they also have 2 OTHER All-Stars (Morant and JJJ) but only managed 51 wins?

And I hope Jarred Vanderbilt never gets tired of carrying that scrub Lebron James through the playoffs.

I could go on and on. Kevon Looney is the best player on the Warriors. The Milwaukee Bucks, sporting the best record in the league have just one guy in the top 40, and he only ranks 14th. And except for the 805 minutes played by the legendary all time great Robert Williams, the next best Celtic, Tatum, ranks 48th on this list. How in the world did the Celtics finish with the 2nd best record?

So please, spare me this argument that because I don't understand exactly how EPM is calculated means I can't use the stat. You know exactly how Wins Produced is calculated yet the stat doesn't pass the smell test. Clearly, no coach or NBA executive values the metric or else minutes distribution and salary distribution would be entirely different in this league. Either everyone else is an idiot and you are the lone genius in the room, or just perhaps, you need to re-evaluate the way you look at things and stop being so smug when someone has the temerity to argue that Porzingis is better than Walker Kessler and Nikola Vucevic.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#324 » by payitforward » Sat May 6, 2023 2:22 pm

AFM wrote:PIF, as an engineer, you are going to drive me crazy. I know you don't think that you HAVE to know the formula of a metric to know if it's valuable or not. It's more of a "Nice To Know".

As you are using the term, a formula yields results in the real world.
Observation of the results, testing them against known realities & known goals, tells me the value of the formula.

If the results aren't what you seek & expect (the paint doesn't harden, the dam cannot resist the water, the valves are carbonized in 20K miles, you gain weight instead of losing it, etc...) you go back & change the formula.

A formula is good, in other words, because & only because it accords with reality; to the degree that it does, I mean. That's true for "2+2=4," & it's equally true for Fermat's last theorem.

In the case of any roll-up basketball metric, the results appear as an ordered list of how "good" players are. The way you test the results is by looking at team records. If the metric tells you that your team has the 25th best player in the league & the 40th best player in the league -- out of @500 players -- but your record in 35-47, it's likely (tho not certain of course) that there is something haywire in the formula. All the more when the overall productivity decline across those 500 is steep & non-linear.

In this or any case, knowing the formula allows you to figure out if there's a problem in it & what the problem is. Is there some baked-in starting point that's not directly based on data? Is one or another variable being over-valued or under-valued?

Of course, in a case like this, assessing nba players, we're not looking for the level of precision, reliability, predictability, etc. that we look for when we seek to compute the ability of a dam to resist water pressure! Hence, here's a simple roll-up I use to assess how good a player is compared to other players at his position. It's based on data easily available at basketballreference.com:

per 36 minutes (or 40 minutes) , add up the guy's...

points
rebounds
steals
1/2 of his assists
1/2 of his blocked shots

From the resultant number, subtract his...

FGAs
1/2 FTAs
turnovers
1/2 fouls

The numerical result is a reliable picture of how the guy performed overall when on the floor. Here's this year's 36-minute results for Brad & a couple of younger SGs:

7.85 Bradley Beal
8.45 Desmond Bane
7.65 Kevin Huerter

Note that this is not "how 'good' a player is whatshisname?" It's "how well did whatshisname perform per 36 minutes this year?" For example, you'll see that Bane's overall result is higher than Brad's. That's information about this year only. If, for example, if you compare 24 year old Brad to current Bane, you might see something altogether different, who knows? Claro?

Is this roll up a perfect match for or mirror of reality? No. Does it correlate well with results at the team level? Yes. In short, it's handy, like the 100-year old Barlow in my jeans pocket. Far as it goes.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#325 » by DCZards » Sat May 6, 2023 2:46 pm

This is all well and good, PIF. But when your formula ends up with you concluding/declaring that DeAndre Jordan had a better season than KP, then there is something very, very wrong with it.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#326 » by doclinkin » Sat May 6, 2023 3:08 pm

payitforward wrote:
nate33 wrote:[ We're not going to make any headway in our disagreements so I'm not going to waste the time trying.

What? I waste my time trying -- why shouldn't you? :)


nate33 wrote: :onfire: :onfire: :onfire: :onfire: :onfire: :onfire: :onfire: :kissmybutt: :pityfool: :upset: :wordyo:


I guess he had the time. :clown:
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#327 » by NatP4 » Sat May 6, 2023 3:19 pm

Meh. EPM says Kuzma was better than Delon Wright.

Also has Luka Garza over Quickley, Sabonis, Middleton, Anthony Edwards, Jalen Brunson, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#328 » by Dat2U » Sat May 6, 2023 3:31 pm

nate33 wrote:
payitforward wrote:What? I waste my time trying -- why shouldn't you? :)

I'd love to learn more about EPM, nate, but I can't find the formula explaining how it's calculated.

I'm sure I'm not alone in being interested. Why don't you simply explain how to calculate a player's epm.

I don't know how it's calculated. What I do know is that it produces results that very much jibe with how smart GM's, front offices, and media guys rank players. The top 15-20 EPM guys are all guys who made All-NBA or would have made All-NBA if not for injuries. The top 10 guys include all the guys who are on most people's short list for top 7 players (Jokic, Embiid, Giannis, Curry, Luka, plus Durant, Davis and Kawhi if they could stay healthy) plus it includes the 1 other guy that SHOULD be on everyone's short list, Jimmy Butler. There are virtually no outliers and no guys who are inexplicably omitted from the top of the list. Here is a screenshot of the top of the list:
Image
Image


All the guys at the top of the list are also max players, suggesting that GM's and coaches value these guys. All the guys play heavy minutes when healthy, so you don't have to make convoluted justifications as to why there are a bunch of low-minute guys ranking at the top of the list. Compare this list to your favorite win's produced statistic and we see how ridiculous your favored system is:

Image

Why in the world has Brandon Clarke played just 1090 minutes? He's the 5th best player in the league and his idiot coach won't play him?

Why isn't Walker Kessler on the Mr. Rushmore of greatest rookies of all time? The guy is basically Bill Russell in his first year, yet nobody has heard of him and Utah only played him 1700 minutes.

And Delon Wright has had the greatest mid-career improvement of all time. It's amazing! He went from a nobody found in free agency for $8M and became a franchise player better than Giannis, SGA, and Curry! Why the heck was Sheppard fired? He just made the greatest free agency acquisition of all time!

And what the heck is all this buzz about for Joel Embiid? MVP? Hah! The guy isn't even as good as Thad Young and Javonte Green!

And look at Memphis! They have the greatest front line of all time that would put the 86 Celtics to shame! I mean, Xavier Tillman, Brandon Clarke and Steven Adams! What a trio? Oh wait. You're telling me that 2 of those guys come off the bench? And they also have 2 OTHER All-Stars (Morant and JJJ) but only managed 51 wins?

And I hope Jarred Vanderbilt never gets tired of carrying that scrub Lebron James through the playoffs.

I could go on and on. Kevon Looney is the best player on the Warriors. The Milwaukee Bucks, sporting the best record in the league have just one guy in the top 40, and he only ranks 14th. And except for the 805 minutes played by the legendary all time great Robert Williams, the next best Celtic, Tatum, ranks 48th on this list. How in the world did the Celtics finish with the 2nd best record?

So please, spare me this argument that because I don't understand exactly how EPM is calculated means I can't use the stat. You know exactly how Wins Produced is calculated yet the stat doesn't pass the smell test. Clearly, no coach or NBA executive values the metric or else minutes distribution and salary distribution would be entirely different in this league. Either everyone else is an idiot and you are the lone genius in the room, or just perhaps, you need to re-evaluate the way you look at things and stop being so smug when someone has the temerity to argue that Porzingis is better than Walker Kessler and Nikola Vucevic.


I nominate this for the HOF thread.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#329 » by doclinkin » Sat May 6, 2023 3:33 pm

Luka Garza is a player I'd love to steal. Suppressed value behind two big name Bigs. Productive and efficient in his minutes on court. Monster double doubles in the G-League.



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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#330 » by nate33 » Sat May 6, 2023 3:37 pm

NatP4 wrote:Meh. EPM says Kuzma was better than Delon Wright.

Also has Luka Garza over Quickley, Sabonis, Middleton, Anthony Edwards, Jalen Brunson, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr.

Luka Garza played 243 minutes. No system can be very accurate on a sample size that small. Statistically, the guy was awesome. The dude averaged 27 points and 9 boards per 36 on a 65% TS%.

And Kuzma over Wright is exactly the type of thing that EPM gets right. I love Wright and think he is underrated, and I agree that Kuzma gets overrated by a lot of regular fans, but I guarantee you if both guys were available in an expansion draft and they had the exact same salary, Kuzma would be taken over Wright by every GM in the league.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#331 » by NatP4 » Sat May 6, 2023 5:15 pm

nate33 wrote:
NatP4 wrote:Meh. EPM says Kuzma was better than Delon Wright.

Also has Luka Garza over Quickley, Sabonis, Middleton, Anthony Edwards, Jalen Brunson, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr.

Luka Garza played 243 minutes. No system can be very accurate on a sample size that small. Statistically, the guy was awesome. The dude averaged 27 points and 9 boards per 36 on a 65% TS%.

And Kuzma over Wright is exactly the type of thing that EPM gets right. I love Wright and think he is underrated, and I agree that Kuzma gets overrated by a lot of regular fans, but I guarantee you if both guys were available in an expansion draft and they had the exact same salary, Kuzma would be taken over Wright by every GM in the league.


I wouldn’t disagree with that, I would take Kuzma as well, because he probably has higher trade value and is younger than Wright.

Has nothing to do with comparing the on court value of the two. Pretty sure EPM isn’t factoring in trade value/future contracts/how players are valued in NBA GM circles.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#332 » by FAH1223 » Sat May 6, 2023 5:34 pm

Wes is going to be given more power in the organization as per Ava Wallace and Ramona Shelburne.

This is crazy.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#333 » by Kanyewest » Sat May 6, 2023 5:48 pm

FAH1223 wrote:Wes is going to be given more power in the organization as per Ava Wallace and Ramona Shelburne.

This is crazy.


Wes Jr. may be going to the front office - like father, like son.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#334 » by DCZards » Sat May 6, 2023 5:57 pm

FAH1223 wrote:Wes is going to be given more power in the organization as per Ava Wallace and Ramona Shelburne.

This is crazy.

From what I read, Wes Jr. is going to have more a say as to who the assistant coaches are going to be. I don't have a problem with that.

The two asst. coaches let go--Oliver & McLean--were both holdovers who were there when Wes Jr. was hired.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#335 » by nate33 » Sat May 6, 2023 6:10 pm

NatP4 wrote:
nate33 wrote:
NatP4 wrote:Meh. EPM says Kuzma was better than Delon Wright.

Also has Luka Garza over Quickley, Sabonis, Middleton, Anthony Edwards, Jalen Brunson, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr.

Luka Garza played 243 minutes. No system can be very accurate on a sample size that small. Statistically, the guy was awesome. The dude averaged 27 points and 9 boards per 36 on a 65% TS%.

And Kuzma over Wright is exactly the type of thing that EPM gets right. I love Wright and think he is underrated, and I agree that Kuzma gets overrated by a lot of regular fans, but I guarantee you if both guys were available in an expansion draft and they had the exact same salary, Kuzma would be taken over Wright by every GM in the league.


I wouldn’t disagree with that, I would take Kuzma as well, because he probably has higher trade value and is younger than Wright.

Has nothing to do with comparing the on court value of the two. Pretty sure EPM isn’t factoring in trade value/future contracts/how players are valued in NBA GM circles.

Even regardless of perceived trade value. If GM's were drafting for an expansion draft in a league that lasts just 1 season, they would still take Kuzma over Wright. Kuzma is a better player, or rather, he does things that are at a greater premium in the modern NBA.

Doing lots of things pretty well, while in the body of an agile, long 6-9 wing, are just more useful than doing things well in the body of slight-framed, 6-4 guard. Kuzma's versatility allows you to get away with playing a wing that can't shoot (Avdija), or a wing that can't dribble (Kispert) or a guard that can't great his own shot in isolation (Morris and Wright).
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#336 » by NatP4 » Sat May 6, 2023 6:12 pm

Kanyewest wrote:
FAH1223 wrote:Wes is going to be given more power in the organization as per Ava Wallace and Ramona Shelburne.

This is crazy.


Wes Jr. may be going to the front office - like father, like son.


No thanks. Coach that played Kuzma 2200 minutes and allowed him to take 1100 shots.

Put him in charge of personnel decisions, first thing he’s doing is re-signing Kuz to a massive deal. Gotta be able to evaluate players better than that.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#337 » by NatP4 » Sat May 6, 2023 6:21 pm

nate33 wrote:
NatP4 wrote:
nate33 wrote:Luka Garza played 243 minutes. No system can be very accurate on a sample size that small. Statistically, the guy was awesome. The dude averaged 27 points and 9 boards per 36 on a 65% TS%.

And Kuzma over Wright is exactly the type of thing that EPM gets right. I love Wright and think he is underrated, and I agree that Kuzma gets overrated by a lot of regular fans, but I guarantee you if both guys were available in an expansion draft and they had the exact same salary, Kuzma would be taken over Wright by every GM in the league.


I wouldn’t disagree with that, I would take Kuzma as well, because he probably has higher trade value and is younger than Wright.

Has nothing to do with comparing the on court value of the two. Pretty sure EPM isn’t factoring in trade value/future contracts/how players are valued in NBA GM circles.

Even regardless of perceived trade value. If GM's were drafting for an expansion draft in a league that lasts just 1 season, they would still take Kuzma over Wright. Kuzma is a better player, or rather, he does things that are at a greater premium in the modern NBA.

Doing lots of things pretty well, while in the body of an agile, long 6-9 wing, are just more useful than doing things well in the body of slight-framed, 6-4 guard. Kuzma's versatility allows you to get away with playing a wing that can't shoot (Avdija), or a wing that can't dribble (Kispert) or a guard that can't great his own shot in isolation (Morris and Wright).


Yeah definitely, every team needs a power forward that plays mediocre defense, doesn’t get any steals or blocks or rebounds, and scores 21 points on 18 shots and 3 turnovers.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#338 » by payitforward » Sat May 6, 2023 6:47 pm

nate33 wrote:
payitforward wrote:...I'd love to learn more about EPM, nate,... how to calculate a player's epm.

I don't know how it's calculated....

My bad; I misunderstood & thought that you did....

nate33 wrote:What I do know is that it produces results that very much jibe with how smart GM's, front offices, and media guys rank players....

Not as a challenge, but... how do you know that? I.e. where do you come by the knowledge.

Don't get me wrong -- although I'm interested to know where you garnered the above, I don't question for a moment that they buy the research from whoever is vending epm. Of course they do -- these are unbelievably expensive decisions; the research is a cheap tool.

In fact, I'd be willing to bet that they buy all kinds of research -- including multiple competitive points of view, including research with whose conclusions they are pretty sure they're going to disagree -- even if only to test their own work against it. They'd be nuts not to! After all, the decisions all these sources feed into cost the 30 NBA teams NBA teams somewhere around $4.5 billion a year! Certainly, that's how pretty much every top business guy I've ever encountered or read about has operated.

OTOH, although the following is is unquestionably 100% correct --
nate33 wrote:The top 15-20 EPM guys are all guys who made All-NBA or would have made All-NBA if not for injuries. The top 10 guys include all the guys who are on most people's short list for top 7 players (Jokic, Embiid, Giannis, Curry, Luka, plus Durant, Davis and Kawhi if they could stay healthy) plus it includes the 1 other guy that SHOULD be on everyone's short list, Jimmy Butler. There are virtually no outliers and no guys who are inexplicably omitted from the top of the list. ....
-- it's probably not what front offices are buying! This they already know! :)
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#339 » by doclinkin » Sat May 6, 2023 6:56 pm

NatP4 wrote:Yeah definitely, every team needs a power forward that plays mediocre defense, doesn’t get any steals or blocks or rebounds, and scores 21 points on 18 shots and 3 turnovers.


Doesn't rebound? His numbers dipped with Porzingis sliding to the starting PF spot, but Kuzma has been a proficient rebounder. His defense is decent by on/off and line-up numbers. His numbers look better against SF's, which considering Deni's lack of an outside shot is a more fair comparison when those two share the court. Likewise when Gafford and KP are in the game together. His defense was a key factor in the Lakers' bubble championship. They faltered in that respect when he was shipped.

Kuzma's biggest shortfall is his unreliable game. He is streaky. Those streaks go both ways. Some days he is incandescent. Others he gives up all he gets for you. He can be streaky even within the same game. He can miss for most of the game then hit key shots in the 4th that win the game. HIs triple doubles are not entirely a fluke. Leastways they tend to be on games where he both scores well and rebounds with effort. He does turn the ball over more than he should, but teams will look for him as an auxiliary passer, and other players appreciate that the ball doesn't stick with him. He makes quick decisions to attack or give up the ball, even if his attacks miss or he gives the ball to the opponent. He's a good teammate, rarely has bad body language, talks to his guys, does not argue with refs. His worst trait is that he thinks he is better than his in game effect. Irrational confidence not based on overall results. And because of those factors, confidence, team play, and occasional first-option production, coaches will give him too much leeway. They will trust him and feed him the ball, hoping for one of those games where he can't be stopped.

The big if with Kuzma: if his 3pt ball were reliable. If he could consistently hit his at least his career best (.366 as a rookie, .361 a few years later) then he would be a net positive. As it is he is all too often, empty stats, empty possessions.

And will be expensive on his next contract. Not worth it. BUT potentially solid value on a sign and trade. He is among the most significant and known names in this FA class. Has a championship, puts up strings of double/doubles, averaged 20 pts next to two 20pt scorers, hit clutch shots, is well liked. Agreed he has better value to teams than Delon Wright. And his next contract will make that evident in the literal sense.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#340 » by nate33 » Sat May 6, 2023 7:05 pm

NatP4 wrote:
nate33 wrote:
NatP4 wrote:
I wouldn’t disagree with that, I would take Kuzma as well, because he probably has higher trade value and is younger than Wright.

Has nothing to do with comparing the on court value of the two. Pretty sure EPM isn’t factoring in trade value/future contracts/how players are valued in NBA GM circles.

Even regardless of perceived trade value. If GM's were drafting for an expansion draft in a league that lasts just 1 season, they would still take Kuzma over Wright. Kuzma is a better player, or rather, he does things that are at a greater premium in the modern NBA.

Doing lots of things pretty well, while in the body of an agile, long 6-9 wing, are just more useful than doing things well in the body of slight-framed, 6-4 guard. Kuzma's versatility allows you to get away with playing a wing that can't shoot (Avdija), or a wing that can't dribble (Kispert) or a guard that can't great his own shot in isolation (Morris and Wright).


Yeah definitely, every team needs a power forward that plays mediocre defense, doesn’t get any steals or blocks or rebounds, and scores 21 points on 18 shots and 3 turnovers.

I won't dispute that he is an inefficient player but I will disagree that he is a mediocre defender and poor rebounder. I think he is a modestly above-average defender with the added ability of being switchable 1 through 5, which makes him a valuable defender. He is definitely one of the 5 guys I would want on the floor in late-game defensive possession. And his rebounding took a dip this year, but it is still average or better for his position. In the 2 previous seasons, he was one of the best rebounders in the league at the forward position.

But my point about his versatility having value still stands. Regardless of his inefficient offense, he makes up for a lot of the holes in his teammates' games. If you look at the lineup data, everybody in our top 8 except Wright posts better on/off numbers when paired with Kuzma than they do overall.

Porzingis lineups are +1.6 overall and +3.5 with Kuzma
Beal lineups are +0.8 overall and +2.8 with Kuzma
Morris lineups are +0.1 overall and +2.0 with Kuzma
Kispert lineups are -3.4 overall and -3.3 with Kuzma
Avdija lineups are -0.6 overall and +2.8 with Kuzma
Gafford lineups are -2.1 overall and +0.2 with Kuzma

Wright, the exception, is +2.4 overall and only +1.2 with Kuzma (and the sample size with Wright is, by far, the lowest and therefore the "noisiest")

Look, I'm not blind to Kuzma's inefficiency. In an ideal world, he would take a lot less shots, and the possibility exists that his ego is too big for him to do so. And this weakness might well mean that Kuzma is not an ideal teammate on a very good team with a lot of well-rounded players. But I think there is a pretty good argument to be made that Kuzma is significantly helpful to a team with a lot of incomplete players (or one-dimensional specialists), because Kuzma's above-average versatility can provide flexibility in what lineups the coach can put on the floor. That has real value. There's a reason why he highly likely to get a significant raise this offseason.

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