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Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread

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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#361 » by bsilver » Sun May 7, 2023 4:33 pm

NatP4 wrote:
bsilver wrote:
NatP4 wrote:
Pretty simple here, take the average ranking of the top 3 players from each team in the East.

Philly: 17
Milwaukee: 9.6
Boston: 13.6
Cleveland: 12.3
Toronto: 18.3
Knicks: 22.6
Brooklyn: 20

Chicago: 24.3
Washington: 23.3
Atlanta: 39
Miami: 29

Sure, the Wizards have a play-in level big 3, when healthy.

Please explain how you came up with these #s. Probably me, but I'm not seeing it.


I just took the average ranking(in the East) of the top 3 players from each of the listed teams, according to the metric that Nate has been using, EPM.

I see now. Nate’s discussion was about the NBA, and you're just about the East.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#362 » by payitforward » Sun May 7, 2023 8:04 pm

nate33 wrote:
payitforward wrote:As to the Wizards, here's a serious issue I'd love for you to take on: obviously, a team's record reflects how its players perform on the court. Now, some of that performance, good or bad, may reflect either good or bad ways the coach utilizes the player -- but, still, it's what happens on the court, what the players do, in 82 games that produces the team's record. Given where you rank KP (@24th to 28th best among the 450+ players in the league) & Beal (@ 40th best in the league if I remember rightly; otherwise, please correct me), how should one explain the Wizards 35-47 record?

It's not difficult at all.

There are 5 starters on each team, and 30 teams in the league, so, in a simplistic model, one would expect the top 150 players in the league to be starting. For argument's sake, let's assume a hypothetical player distribution as follows: the best player on each team is a top 30 player; the 2nd best player on each team ranks somewhere in the 31-60 range; the 3rd best player would rank in the 61-90 range, etc.

In that scenario, the best team in the league might have the 1st, 31st, 61st, 91st and 121st best players in the league as their starting lineup. They might not have those exact rankings, maybe they have the 60th best guy as their #2 player and the 92nd best guy as their #3, but on average, it looks something like that.

Likewise, the mid-tier team with a 41-41 record might have the 15th best player, the 45th best player, the 75th best player, the 105th best player and the 135th best player. You get the idea.

The Wizards were the 23rd best team in the league going by SRS (strength adjusted point differential). So in this model, I would expect our best player to be the 23rd best player in the league. Our 2nd best guy would be 53rd, our 3rd best is 83rd, etc.

Well, I think Porzingis is right around 23rd, maybe a little lower in the 24-28 range, but thereabouts. Beal is probably a bit better than 53rd. EPM has him 41st, so let's go with that. Our 3rd best guy, Kuzma, ranks 74th by EPM, which has him 9 slots better than what one would expect from the 3rd best guy on the 23rd best team in the league. We can see why Ted calls them the Big Three. They're actually pretty respectable relative to the league. The 26th, 41st and 74th best players should form a top 3 core good enough to be 17th best team in the league - an 8th/9th seed.

The problem like Dat2U pointed out several pages ago, is the depth. There is a huge gap behind our Big Three. Our 4th best starter, Gafford, ranks 135th by EPM. An average team's 4th and 5th best starter should rank 105th. Essentially, we don't have a 4th starter. We have a 5th starter masquerading as a 4th starter. That weakness is enough to pull down what should be a roughly league average team based on our top 3 guys. Morris ranks 142nd by EPM which is back in line with what one would expect from a 5th best starter.

Now factor that our 2nd best player missed almost half the season and our record is explained perfectly. I'll add that our bench is horrible by EPM. Wright is good (95th by EPM) but he played just 1200 minutes. The rest of our bench is really bad. Goodwin ranks 220 by EPM (played 1100 minutes). Avdija is 257th (played 2000 minutes), and Kispert is 293rd (played 2100 minutes).

I appreciate the thought & effort that went into this, nate, & the fact that you took my request seriously enough to undertake the effort. I don't agree with it, but I don't see much value in hashing it out. Or much likelihood that we'd be able to do so.

As you can imagine, the idea that Kyle Kuzma is the 74th best player in the league (i.e. in the top 16-17% of NBA players!) strikes me as ludicrous. A guy whose per 40-minutes are significantly below average for his position cannot even be in the top half of NBA players.

In any case, the logic of your model would only work if the difference in productivity was always the same between a player at position "n" on the epm descending list & the guy just below him. Which, obviously, is altogether counter-intuitive. Pretty much inconceivable actually.... Moreover, even with the little I know about how epm is calculated, it's obviously way too complex for such a result.

Plenty of other things to talk about!
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#363 » by payitforward » Sun May 7, 2023 8:31 pm

NatP4 wrote:
gesa2 wrote:To add to Nate’s post, which I think is very accurate - the most important player ranking is your #1 player. It’s very hard to be a great team without one player that’s at least close to all NBA. And Porzingas’ season while much better than we expected, doesn’t come close to that. The 28th best #1 player doesn’t usually lead you to the playoffs.


Pretty simple here, take the average ranking of the top 3 players from each team in the East.

Philly: 17
Milwaukee: 9.6
Boston: 13.6
Cleveland: 12.3
Toronto: 18.3
Knicks: 22.6
Brooklyn: 20

Chicago: 24.3
Washington: 23.3
Atlanta: 39
Miami: 29

Sure, the Wizards have a play-in level big 3, when healthy.

First off, what does taking an average add to this? In any case, the average of our top 3 guys' position is 44.3 not 23.3.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#364 » by NatP4 » Sun May 7, 2023 8:44 pm

It’s the average of each individual players ranking within the East. With the goal of comparing the top end talent from each of the top teams in the East, according to EPM.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#365 » by payitforward » Sun May 7, 2023 8:49 pm

nate:
who do you think is better: Jalen Brunson or Spencer Dinwiddie? & how big a quality difference do you think there is between the two.

Now let me pick two at random.... Nic Claxton... & Brandon Ingram -- who's better, & how much difference do you think there is?

Plus, let me throw in a ringer -- Luka Garza: where would you rank him compared to the 2 just above?

Now, suppose we add Malcolm Brogdon? Is he better or worse than any of the 5 mentioned above?
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#366 » by payitforward » Sun May 7, 2023 8:56 pm

Rank the following 7 bigs:

Bam Adebayo
Jarrett Allen
Walker Kessler
Robert Williams III
Mitchell Robinson
Domantas Sabonis
Draymond Green

Of course, no one has to play this game! We can just say that epm is quite accurate, because... well, you know, because they say they are.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#367 » by payitforward » Sun May 7, 2023 9:04 pm

NatP4 wrote:It’s the average of each individual players ranking within the East. With the goal of comparing the top end talent from each of the top teams in the East, according to EPM.

I have no idea what you are talking about. Are you taking the top 3 from, say Philly, adding up their position in the epm ranking, & dividing by 3 to get an average?

If so, the top 3 Philly players listed are Embiid (2), Harden (13) & Maxey (57) -- unless I'm missing somebody (I don't think so) -- for an average of 24.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#368 » by NatP4 » Sun May 7, 2023 9:10 pm

payitforward wrote:
NatP4 wrote:It’s the average of each individual players ranking within the East. With the goal of comparing the top end talent from each of the top teams in the East, according to EPM.

I have no idea what you are talking about. Are you taking the top 3 from, say Philly, adding up their position in the epm ranking, & dividing by 3 to get an average?


Individual player rankings within the eastern conference.

I think I miscalculated Philly. Should be 12.3 not 17. LOL

Embiid 1, Harden 6, Maxey 30.

Wizards: Porzingis 7, Beal 22, Kuzma 41
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#369 » by dckingsfan » Sun May 7, 2023 9:43 pm

NatP4 wrote:
payitforward wrote:
NatP4 wrote:It’s the average of each individual players ranking within the East. With the goal of comparing the top end talent from each of the top teams in the East, according to EPM.

I have no idea what you are talking about. Are you taking the top 3 from, say Philly, adding up their position in the epm ranking, & dividing by 3 to get an average?


Individual player rankings within the eastern conference.

I think I miscalculated Philly. Should be 12.3 not 17. LOL

Embiid 1, Harden 6, Maxey 30.

Wizards: Porzingis 7, Beal 22, Kuzma 41

I think that those are pretty high ratings for our players. But, that is just an opinion.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#370 » by nate33 » Sun May 7, 2023 9:46 pm

payitforward wrote:nate:
who do you think is better: Jalen Brunson or Spencer Dinwiddie? & how big a quality difference do you think there is between the two.

Now let me pick two at random.... Nic Claxton... & Brandon Ingram -- who's better, & how much difference do you think there is?

Plus, let me throw in a ringer -- Luka Garza: where would you rank him compared to the 2 just above?

Now, suppose we add Malcolm Brogdon? Is he better or worse than any of the 5 mentioned above?

I'm not playing this game with you. You always make me justify my position and you never justify yours except with the same tired old possession calculation.

Answer this question, one I asked several months ago and you never answered. Why does Brandon Clarke play just 20 minutes a game? He is the 5th best player in the whole freaking league yet his coach won't even start him. How is that possible? I mean, seriously. Please answer this. And I didn't have to comb the WP/48 list all the way down to the 59th slot to find a ranking that looks out of place. Clarke ranks 5th! Robert Williams ranks 2nd for cryin' out loud.

Delon Wright is the 7th best player in the league! Do you agree? And don't deflect with the old bs argument where you tell me that Delon Wright isn't necessarily the 7th best player but he is the 7th most productive. That's the same thing.

And while you are at it, please tell me if you think Joel Embiid is even a top 20 player in this league. He won MVP and was a unanimous top 3 finalist, but your system doesn't even rank him in the top 50! How can you possibly stand by this system? Is everybody in the world a complete idiot except you?
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#371 » by nate33 » Sun May 7, 2023 10:03 pm

payitforward wrote:Rank the following 7 bigs:

Bam Adebayo
Jarrett Allen
Walker Kessler
Robert Williams III
Mitchell Robinson
Domantas Sabonis
Draymond Green

Of course, no one has to play this game! We can just say that epm is quite accurate, because... well, you know, because they say they are.

Again, deflect my questions with more of yours.

IS BRANDON CLARKE THE 5TH BEST PLAYER IN THE NBA? ANSWER THE QUESTION!

But I don't mind answering your question. I'd rank them as follows:

1. Bam Adebayo (His regular season numbers are so-so because he's not really long enough to be a top tier rim-runner, and in Miami's system, he has to play a lot in the mid post where he has to shoot inefficient midrange jumpers. But his switchability on D makes and versatility on offense make him much more valuable in the playoffs.)
2. Draymond Green (Tough to evaluate. He is awesome in his system where he can negate his offensive deficiencies by setting screens for Curry and Klay. Teams still have to guard him because they have to show on those screens. But in another system, he might be a total liability of offense and really hurt his team's success.)
3. Domantas Sabonis (Great on offense, but only against mid-tier centers that he can bully. Against the best centers, he often looks really bad. Pretty bad on D.)
4. Jarrett Allen (Good in the regular season, but lack of versatility of offense and switchability on defense gets exploited in the playoffs.)
5. Mitchell Robinson (Good in the regular season, but lack of versatility of offense and switchability on defense gets exploited in the playoffs.)
6. Robert Williams III (Ranked this low mostly because of his injury problems. I can't rank him better than full time starters above because he can't log the minutes)
7. Walker Kessler (as of now, he's purely a regular season guy. Good teams that scout him will exploit his drop coverage and his offensive limitations).
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#372 » by FAH1223 » Sun May 7, 2023 11:10 pm

Read on Twitter


Porzingis and Kuzma expected to re-sign.

Porzingis is expected to get something around 4-years $135M or 5-years $170M by league executives by re-signing in DC.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#373 » by payitforward » Sun May 7, 2023 11:53 pm

nate33 wrote:I'm not playing this game with you....

Fair enough -- & to tell the truth, the whole thing is kind of stupid.... I mean what do we care whether a system ranks Herb Jones #65 or #165 or whatever.

We've got other things to think about, subjects that are actually relevant to the sad state of our franchise. & even beyond the issues of the Wizards, no ranking system is as interesting as basketball.

Not to mention that there is a whole lot of "flavor of the month" about every single one of these analytics systems. So, I apologize for extending the conversation about epm in this direction.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#374 » by nate33 » Mon May 8, 2023 12:38 pm

payitforward wrote:
nate33 wrote:I'm not playing this game with you....

Fair enough -- & to tell the truth, the whole thing is kind of stupid.... I mean what do we care whether a system ranks Herb Jones #65 or #165 or whatever.

We've got other things to think about, subjects that are actually relevant to the sad state of our franchise. & even beyond the issues of the Wizards, no ranking system is as interesting as basketball.

Not to mention that there is a whole lot of "flavor of the month" about every single one of these analytics systems. So, I apologize for extending the conversation about epm in this direction.

Amazing. You still won't answer the question.

Is Brandon Clarke the 5th best player in the league?

Since you won't answer, I'm going to assume your answer is yes. And I will take that into consideration whenever you critique my player evaluations.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#375 » by payitforward » Mon May 8, 2023 3:12 pm

nate33 wrote:...
Amazing. You still won't answer the question.

Is Brandon Clarke the 5th best player in the league?

Since you won't answer, I'm going to assume your answer is yes. And I will take that into consideration whenever you offer you critique my player rankings.

Ooops, sorry -- I didn't see your post.

Of course Brandon Clarke is not the 5th best player in the game, nate.
Nor is Robert Williams a better NBA player than Nikola Jokic (from the same list, or so I presume). :)

For that matter, great though he is, Jimmy Butler (who's at #1 on the same list) isn't better than Nikola Jokic.

As I've written many times, schemas like PER, WP48, Win Shares, etc. compare sets of numbers not people. They're only useful if you keep that in mind.

As I've also written many times, no such schema, applied to a player, encompasses the whole truth about that player. How much less, then, can it be wholly accurate about a list of hundreds of them!

The only thing you compare one analytical framework to is another analytical framework, not to "reality." & you only do it based on what you're trying to learn by using either of them. Above all, you don't ask any analytical framework focused on human performance to be adequate to reality in individual cases, nate. Only fools & ideologues do that. In fact, if we could do that, there would be no need to play the games!

If I compare the tensile strength of two pieces of steel, the results I get can be applied in building or making something tomorrow. Nor will they change the following day or the following week. If I make a knife blade out of CPM S110V, I can predict its characteristics & compare outcomes to what I'd get with, let's say, VG10 steel instead. & those differences, because they actually inhere in the substance, will remain & never change.

Even epm, which is trying to do something quite different from what wp48 tries to do, btw, can't begin to accomplish w/ human beings (nba players) what the analysis of steel accomplishes.

I've got a 100-year old Barlow in my right-hand jeans pocket. It'll do today exactly what it did yesterday -- & what it wouldn't do yesterday it won't do today.

On the other hand, Spencer Dinwiddie may be a better player than Jalen Brunson & Lamelo Ball, yet who knows? The order may change as the seasons pass.

For that matter, although Spence is also better than Bam Adebayo, Draymond Green, & Marcus Smart, even thatmay not last.

Same thing with Kyle Kuzma being a better player than Andrew Wiggins. Who knows, maybe Wiggins will improve & actually surpass Kuz. Maybe even Klay Thompson also has a shot to become as good as Kuz -- who knows?

After all, in none of the above cases would anyone have to improve nearly as much as, let's say, Domantas Sabonis or Pascal Siakam or Mikal Bridges or Tyrese Maxey has to if any of them hopes to rise all the way up to the level of Luka Garza! :)

Finally... nate you're one of my favorite contributors here. Have I ever taken a tone with you like the one you're taking with me in this thread? I don't think so -- in any case I certainly hope not! But, if I have, it's to be regretted, & I won't do it again.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#376 » by dckingsfan » Tue May 9, 2023 12:05 am

FAH1223 wrote:...Kuzma expected to re-sign...

:cry:
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#377 » by JWizmentality » Tue May 9, 2023 1:14 am

dckingsfan wrote:
FAH1223 wrote:...Kuzma expected to re-sign...

:cry:


Not possible. Surely they realize this is madness. :banghead:
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#378 » by nate33 » Tue May 9, 2023 2:05 pm

payitforward wrote:Finally... nate you're one of my favorite contributors here. Have I ever taken a tone with you like the one you're taking with me in this thread? I don't think so -- in any case I certainly hope not! But, if I have, it's to be regretted, & I won't do it again.

Yes, you do take on a condescending tone. You do it constantly. For example:

payitforward wrote:At a certain point all this stuff just becomes a matter of assertion -- say it twice & it's more likely to be true than the first time; say it repeatedly & how can anyone doubt it? For that reason, I'm not going to respond by saying, "sorry, no. Porzingis wasn't as good as any of those guys." I'm just going to say that I would expect someone who claims that Porzingis is the 6th best Center in the game to back it up with numbers.

Not that there are no numbers at all to point to! KP scored a lot of points at an above average TS%. That was a very good thing to do, a thing very few players can do -- meaning that it's evidence of his being good. But once points & TS% are significant evidence, then so are other numbers that can be shown to have a relationship to game outcomes -- b/c good in a competitive sport is quantitative not qualitative. This ain't ballet.

Thus...

...which is better 6 offensive rebounds or 2.2 offensive rebounds? Over the same number of minutes. & which is better 13 defensive rebounds or 10 defensive rebounds?

If you don't think there's an obvious answer to that question, i.e. if you can't say which is better until you know the names involved, then no discussion of how good a player is compared to other players is possible -- people have to agree on the meaning of numbers to compare two players.

Those numbers & their differences have to count as ways that player A is better than player B -- assuming that A is the guy that got both the bigger numbers -- in the same sense that more points & a higher TS% count.

If they do, then great -- a discussion is possible. If they don't, i.e. if you have to know both A's & B's names first before you can decide whether & how much numbers matter, then no comparison of players is possible. In fact no assessment of an individual player is possible either unless the answer is in the numbers independent of the player's name.

If not, it's just assertion, as I wrote above. & if the assertion is taken seriously here on the Wizards Board, well... that doesn't add much to the evidential basis, does it?

You try to hide it with word salad, but all you are really saying is "my ranking system is logical and reasonable because I can get out my calculator and add up possessions directly from box score data. Your ranking system is illogical and worthless because you can't quantify it as clearly, so I am always right and you are always wrong."

I finally got fed up with this argument and was forced to clearly demonstrate how your system is clearly and obviously wrong, way more wrong than my system if we use actual minutes distribution, player salary, and All-NBA voting as a metric. You still do nothing to justify the actual rankings of your wins produced metric. How in the world can you continue to defend a system that ranks Robert Williams, Brandon Clarke and Dorell Wright as top 10 players when none of them are even starters? You don't even acknowledge the absurdity of it. There is no introspection at all. I had to ask you 3 times if Brandon Clarke was actually the 5th best player in the league before you responded. You finally said he wasn't, which is a step in the right direction, but now I need you to explain WHY he isn't the 5th best player. Because if you can explain that to yourself, maybe you would have a little more understanding when someone such as myself says that Porzingis is better than Walker Kessler.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#379 » by pcbothwel » Tue May 9, 2023 3:19 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
FAH1223 wrote:...Kuzma expected to re-sign...

:cry:


Its not going to happen. Lets say we resign KP for 4/140M. He would count ~30M against the cap, and leave us about <25M below the Lux tax.
There is no way Ted will pay the tax with this team, which makes bringing back Kuz all but impossible. Also, a new GM would give up their ability to use the Non Tax MLE & Bi-annual. That is 11M and 4M respectively and gives any new GM an opportunity to add a valuable piece and mold the team to his liking.

My guess is they move Kuz via SnT for marginal asset (2nd), expiring filler, and possibly TPE. I could also see us moving either Delon Wright or Morris as well.
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Re: Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread 

Post#380 » by payitforward » Tue May 9, 2023 3:30 pm

Well, first off, thanks for being in dialogue with me about this. It's thoughtful & generous of you, & I appreciate it.

I'd certainly say that my tone is confident in the paragraphs you quote above, but I would never have identified them as condescending. The fact that you do tells me I'm wrong.

Part of the problem likely comes from the fact that I have lived a long life in a world (i.e. a social & professional context) where people talk like that all the time, & no one takes offense. In a group setting, say a conference, someone might find such a set of remarks challenging, maybe even feel challenged personally. Typically he (usually) or she would attempt a response that knocked the previous on its ass!

Whereupon, a 3d person might proceed to explain all the ways that the two previous were both all wrong -- two sides of a counterfeit coin as it were -- & proceed to redefine whatever subject was at question.

But the fact that I am habituated to something doesn't make it appropriate.

Thus, it is on me to find a different way to write, a way that can communicate what's on my mind without making it seem like I think I'm the Pope issuing Catholic doctrine! I'll do my best, I promise -- feel free to call me on my failures! :)

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