Rookie of the Year '22-23

[payitforward]

Paolo Banchero has been named RoY.
In which case the acronym should stand for "Ridiculous of the Year."

Here's a list of rookies who were MUCH better than Banchero:

Walker Kessler
Jalen Williams
Tari Eason
Jalen Duren
Dyson Daniels
Keegan Murray
Mark Williams
Christian Braun
(Note that 6 of those 8 players were taken in the dozen picks
that followed the Wizards' pick of Johnny Davis -- frustrating...)

Banchero shot .474 on 2pt attempts & .296 on 3pt attempts -- for an efg% of .466 & a TS% of .531.
All those numbers are just plain awful for a 4.

Kessler was better by far than any other rookie. But he came off the bench, & RoY almost always goes to someone who starts for at least part of the season.

Mark Williams, Jalen Duren & Tari Eason were all terrific, but none of them started (maybe Duren did, late in the season?) & none were in a class with Kessler numbers-wise.

Overall, without much doubt in my mind, the true RoY was Jalen Williams. He started, he played 30+ minutes a game, & he put up terrific numbers.

[nate33]

This is the same old argument PIF. There's a difference in being a high usage player and focus of the defense, versus having the luxury of being ignored by the defense so that you can focus on being efficient.

I'm not saying I'd have selected Banchero, but I'm confident that most coaches and GM's in the league would have characterized his season as significantly better than most of the guys on your list.

I do think Jalen Williams was probably better, and maybe Kessler. But that's about it.

[bsilver]

Results looked right to me. I was impressed by Banchero's growth from the beginning of the year. Much better decision making in last month or so. And he's a year younger than Williams and Kessler. And what Nate said about high usage players.

All of top 3 improved during the year, so much so, that it's hard to predict ceiling. If a re-draft, Banchero would be the top pick. Kessler was great, but with centers being de-valued, don't know where he would land.

[DCZards]

Based on their performance this season, my choice for ROY would have probably been Jalen Williams. He had a very good rookie season in a relatively high usage role.

But, as Nate points out, you really can’t compare Banchero’s season to that of the other rookies listed as having better seasons when Pancho’s role and usage was very different than that of any of them.

I’m pretty sure that if you asked GM’s today who they would have taken with the first pick in the 2022 draft the answer would still be Banchero. I think he's shown that he has the potential to someday be an NBA all-star.

[AFM]

Christian Braun? Really? Maybe I looked the wrong one up but his numbers don’t look impressive to me.

[pancakes3]

can't throw up Christian Braun and Dyson Daniels as better than Paolo when Braun's season high was 19 and Daniels' 18 - Paolo averaged 20.

but admire the consistency in not including Bennedict Mathurin who put up 17/4/1.5 bc he had similarly bad shooting splits (34/32/83; 49% efg, 56.6% TS)

[payitforward]

This is the same old argument PIF. There's a difference in being a high usage player and focus of the defense, versus having the luxury of being ignored by the defense so that you can focus on being efficient.

I'm not saying I'd have selected Banchero, but I'm confident that most coaches and GM's in the league would have characterized his season as significantly better than most of the guys on your list.

I do think Jalen Williams was probably better, and maybe Kessler. But that's about it.

Paolo Banchero, playing the 4, posted a TS% of .531.
How many of those coaches and GM's in the league would thinkthat TS% from a 4 would help them win games?

Points have no value independent of what it takes in FGAs/FTAs to record those points. I'm pretty sure coaches & GMs are able to grasp that unquestionable fact.

What it means to be "good" as a scorer is to be "a high usage player and focus of the defense" & still be efficient. If you're high usage & bad, that doesn't make you a good player.

Jaden Hardy scored more points than Banchero per 40 minutes. & he did it at a significantly higher TS% (especially impressive given he's a guard). Why no love for Jaden Hardy as RoY?

To score 10 more points than Walker Kessler, Paolo Banchero had to use @14 more possessions. On average, an NBA team gets about 16 points out of 14 possessions. The Magic were -2.6 ppg to the league.

Banchero was terrible. Period.

[nate33]

This is the same old argument PIF. There's a difference in being a high usage player and focus of the defense, versus having the luxury of being ignored by the defense so that you can focus on being efficient.

I'm not saying I'd have selected Banchero, but I'm confident that most coaches and GM's in the league would have characterized his season as significantly better than most of the guys on your list.

I do think Jalen Williams was probably better, and maybe Kessler. But that's about it.

Jaden Hardy scored more points than Banchero per 40 minutes. & he did it at a significantly higher TS% (especially impressive given he's a guard). Why no love for Jaden Hardy as RoY?

That's factually untrue:



Banchero scored more per minute and per possession, with a lot fewer turnovers on essentially an identical TS%. And he did so on a somewhat relevant team who played a lot more meaningful minutes. Orlando finished with 34 wins and an SRS rating of just -2.39 (better than Indy). Detroit's entire season was basically garbage time (SRS of -7.73) with opposing defenses not even really caring because they had a 15 point lead.

[NatP4]

Jaden Hardy, not Jaden Ivey.

[nate33]

Jaden Hardy, not Jaden Ivey.

My bad.

Jaden Hardy has an even worse case. He played just 708 minutes, and most of them late in the season when Dallas was awful. In the 27 games this season when Hardy played 12:30 or more minutes, the Mavs went 6-21 - a worse winning percentage than the worst team in the league.

Basically, the only time the Mavs were willing to put him on the floor were when they were a horrible, horrible team.

I will say that the fact that he scored at volume with not-awful efficiency suggests he may have a future in this league. But he clearly wasn't contributing to any kind of winning basketball as a rookie.

[dckingsfan]

I think it should be whichever rookie plays meaningful minutes, starts and is on the team that goes furthest into the playoffs

[payitforward]

Jaden Hardy, not Jaden Ivey.

My bad.

Jaden Hardy has an even worse case. He played just 708 minutes, and most of them late in the season when Dallas was awful. In the 27 games this season when Hardy played 12:30 or more minutes, the Mavs went 6-21 - a worse winning percentage than the worst team in the league.

Basically, the only time the Mavs were willing to put him on the floor were when they were a horrible, horrible team.

I will say that the fact that he scored at volume with not-awful efficiency suggests he may have a future in this league. But he clearly wasn't contributing to any kind of winning basketball as a rookie.

I wasn't making a case for Jaden Hardy as RoY! I was using him as "evidence" against the case for Banchero.

But, in any case, we are going back & forth from different bases altogether without shedding much light on anything. In all, what I have to say comes down to 2 things: I don't see how one can give an award to a guy whose only conceivable claim on it is that he took a lot of shots. &, to me at least, there seems to have been a far better candidate -- Jalen Williams.

[closg00]

Paolo Banchero has been joined on the 22-23 NBA All-Rookie First Team by Jalen Williams, Walker Kessler, Bennedict Mathurin and Keegan Murray.

First Team
Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic
Walker Kessler, Utah Jazz
Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers
Keegan Murray, Sacramento Kings
Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder

Second Team
Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons
Tari Eason, Houston Rockets
Jaden Ivey, Detroit Pistons
Jabari Smith Jr., Houston Rockets
Jeremy Sochan, San Antonio Spurs

[payitforward]

Paolo Banchero has been joined on the 22-23 NBA All-Rookie First Team by Jalen Williams, Walker Kessler, Bennedict Mathurin and Keegan Murray.

First Team
Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic
Walker Kessler, Utah Jazz
Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers
Keegan Murray, Sacramento Kings
Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder

Second Team
Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons
Tari Eason, Houston Rockets
Jaden Ivey, Detroit Pistons
Jabari Smith Jr., Houston Rockets
Jeremy Sochan, San Antonio Spurs

Wow...
Duren & Eason seemed to have far better rookie years than Banchero, Mathurin & Murray....

[DCZards]

Paolo Banchero has been joined on the 22-23 NBA All-Rookie First Team by Jalen Williams, Walker Kessler, Bennedict Mathurin and Keegan Murray.

First Team
Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic
Walker Kessler, Utah Jazz
Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers
Keegan Murray, Sacramento Kings
Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder

Second Team
Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons
Tari Eason, Houston Rockets
Jaden Ivey, Detroit Pistons
Jabari Smith Jr., Houston Rockets
Jeremy Sochan, San Antonio Spurs

Wow...
Duren & Eason seemed to have far better rookie years than Banchero, Mathurin & Murray....

Duren and Eason played far fewer minutes than the other three and their teams were much worse. Those things were probably factors…and rightfully so, imo.

[bsilver]

Paolo Banchero has been joined on the 22-23 NBA All-Rookie First Team by Jalen Williams, Walker Kessler, Bennedict Mathurin and Keegan Murray.

First Team
Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic
Walker Kessler, Utah Jazz
Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers
Keegan Murray, Sacramento Kings
Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder

Second Team
Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons
Tari Eason, Houston Rockets
Jaden Ivey, Detroit Pistons
Jabari Smith Jr., Houston Rockets
Jeremy Sochan, San Antonio Spurs

Wow...
Duren & Eason seemed to have far better rookie years than Banchero, Mathurin & Murray....

So, I hear you’re under consideration for Wiz GM. First question, what’s your draft board top 10 for a redo of the 2022 draft.
Not your opinion of the results of the all rookie teams.

[payitforward]

Paolo Banchero has been joined on the 22-23 NBA All-Rookie First Team by Jalen Williams, Walker Kessler, Bennedict Mathurin and Keegan Murray.

First Team
Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic
Walker Kessler, Utah Jazz
Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers
Keegan Murray, Sacramento Kings
Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder

Second Team
Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons
Tari Eason, Houston Rockets
Jaden Ivey, Detroit Pistons
Jabari Smith Jr., Houston Rockets
Jeremy Sochan, San Antonio Spurs

Wow...
Duren & Eason seemed to have far better rookie years than Banchero, Mathurin & Murray....

Duren and Eason played far fewer minutes than the other three and their teams were much worse. Those things were probably factors…and rightfully so, imo.

Fair point....

[payitforward]

Paolo Banchero has been joined on the 22-23 NBA All-Rookie First Team by Jalen Williams, Walker Kessler, Bennedict Mathurin and Keegan Murray.

First Team
Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic
Walker Kessler, Utah Jazz
Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers
Keegan Murray, Sacramento Kings
Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder

Second Team
Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons
Tari Eason, Houston Rockets
Jaden Ivey, Detroit Pistons
Jabari Smith Jr., Houston Rockets
Jeremy Sochan, San Antonio Spurs

Wow...
Duren & Eason seemed to have far better rookie years than Banchero, Mathurin & Murray....

So, I hear you’re under consideration for Wiz GM.

I don't recall whether I've ever told the story of my attempt to become GM of the Warriors in the mid-1970s when I was in my early 30s & most of you weren't even born yet....

...what’s your draft board top 10 for a redo of the 2022 draft....

Are you asking for my opinion of who the top 10 rookies were? I think I've already given that. Still, the top 8 were Walker Kessler, Mark Williams, Jalen Duren, Tari Eason, Jalen Williams, Keegan Murray, Dyson Daniels, & Christian Braun. Worth mentioning that Mark Williams, Daniels & Braun played fewer minutes than the other 5.

If it has to go to 10, then add AJ Griffin &... actually, I really don''t have another candidate who was good enough to warrant typing his name.

Of course, opinions being free, anyone can have any opinion he or she wants. All the same, I think it would be ludicrous to put Banchero, Mathurin, Ivey, Jabari Smith, or Sochan on any list of guys who were actually good -- i.e. to suggest that maybe they put up numbers which ranked them anywhere near average NBA productivity.

Of course, that doesn't mean they won't ever be good. That's very different, & it's not what I'm saying.

[AFM]

PIF you are old as hell my guy. Pretty impressed dementia or Alzheimer's hasn't taken over yet. God bless.

[bsilver]

Wow...
Duren & Eason seemed to have far better rookie years than Banchero, Mathurin & Murray....

So, I hear you’re under consideration for Wiz GM.

I don't recall whether I've ever told the story of my attempt to become GM of the Warriors in the mid-1970s when I was in my early 30s & most of you weren't even born yet....

...what’s your draft board top 10 for a redo of the 2022 draft....

Are you asking for my opinion of who the top 10 rookies were? I think I've already given that. Still, the top 8 were Walker Kessler, Mark Williams, Jalen Duren, Tari Eason, Jalen Williams, Keegan Murray, Dyson Daniels, & Christian Braun. Worth mentioning that Mark Williams, Daniels & Braun played fewer minutes than the other 5.

If it has to go to 10, then add AJ Griffin &... actually, I really don''t have another candidate who was good enough to warrant typing his name.

Of course, opinions being free, anyone can have any opinion he or she wants. All the same, I think it would be ludicrous to put Banchero, Mathurin, Ivey, Jabari Smith, or Sochan on any list of guys who were actually good -- i.e. to suggest that maybe they put up numbers which ranked them anywhere near average NBA productivity.

Of course, that doesn't mean they won't ever be good. That's very different, & it's not what I'm saying.

Great Warrior teams in the mid 70s. Saw them beat the Knicks in MSG. Some similarity to recent Warrior teams. My question was who would you draft as opposed to who should be on all rookie teams. But I guess you’re saying they’re the same.