Doctor MJ wrote:So with 1st round in the books, some thoughts:
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When I think about the big'un, POY, I feel like I'm likely down to 7 top contenders based on the teams left:
Jokic
Embiid
Butler
Tatum
AD
Curry
Booker
It's certainly possible that someone else shining from those 7 teams (Jaylen, LeBron, Dray, KD, etc) re-shapes the dynamic within that team, but I think it's unlikely that someone already eliminated will grab one of the 5 slots.
Also, only team left with no representation here is the Knicks. No insult intended, just think this is more about a collective team than it is about any one player.
Looking back as I'm now forming my thoughts halfway into the second round, I think this is a sound list of ballot contenders.
Current order that I'm thinking about as things stand & for me to build off of later
1. Jokic
2. Butler
3. Tatum
4. Embiid
5. Davis
6. Antetokounmpo
7. Curry
8. Booker
Jokic at #1 feels pretty solid right now. Had the best regular season IMO, on the #1 seed, and has had a much stronger postseason than the other top MVP contenders (Embiid, Giannis).
Embiid had the 2nd best regular season behind Jokic, but both Butler & Tatum are having better postseasons after strong regular seasons impact-wise. Tatum also has a significant advantage in availability - 448 minutes over Embiid. Obviously, Tatum and Embiid are playing in a series against one another right now, which could affect the margins, but as it stands the 76ers have won two games in which Harden was the single biggest reason for the win.
Transcendent postseason from AD on the defensive end right now. He's been the best player for a Lakers team that beat the Grizzlies in 6 and are up 3-1 on the Warriors, both series they entered as underdogs (+140 and +130 respectively). I haven't seen a better playoff run from an individual defender in the modern NBA, and it isn't just the playoffs - he should've made the All-Defense 2nd team IMO. Looking ahead, the Lakers have a real shot at being the 2nd team ever ('95 rockets) to win a chip as the underdogs in every series they played. And AD is the driving force of that.
Elite regular season for Giannis (albeit below his standards) & a virtually nonexistent postseason. Not really any point putting him here because there's nothing that'll put him in the top 5, but this is where I think I'd have him if the season ended today.
I'm relatively low on Curry's regular season (just like last year). The Warriors underperformed and he went 30-26 as a starter. In a regular season ranking, I would have Lillard over Curry. Curry's best case would have to come from the postseason, where the Warriors have continued to underperform. They were favorites against Sacramento and got taken to 7 games and the offense was not as good as one may have expected against the worst playoff defense in the league - 118 DRTG, GSW put up a 113 ORTG on the series. Golden State entered Round 2 as favorites again and are now down 3-1. And I'm not so sure Steph has clearly outplayed LeBron in this series (obviously Davis has outplayed both of them, leaving this as the competition for 2nd best player).
Curry: 25/6/8, 55% TS%
LeBron: 23/9/5, 54% TS%
The box score metrics are pretty similar - beyond that, Steph's offensive impact has clearly been beyond LeBron's while LeBron's defense has been on another level. Given that LeBron's a 38-year-old with an injured foot who could be playing much better, Steph failing to clearly outplay him thus far in my eyes has been an underperformance in a Warriors season defined by underperformances. Of course, the season isn't over yet so we'll see if things change at all.
Booker had the worst regular season here which makes his placement tricky. He's obviously been immense in the postseason but
probably needs a Finals berth at minimum for me to have him on my ballot because of the other stars with much superior regular seasons and strong postseasons themselves.