Which Player Had The Greatest 3 Year Offensive Peak In History?

[ty 4191]

I'll start with Jokic....

How many players, period, have had a 3 year offensive peak like Jokic? Not (just) centers:

Updated:

Consider that in the past 240 games (including the playoffs, dating back to the beginning of 2020-2021), Jokic has put up a slash line of:

26.5/12.2/8.5 on +8.7 rTS% (while also, incidentally, leading all centers in steals by a massive margin):

The only player in NBA history to put up a slash line of 26.5/12.2/8.5 in ANY 82 game season is Oscar Robertson, all the way back in 61'-62', and he did it in a game that featured *127* possessions per game, playing *44* MPG.

Jokic, on the other hand, has done this in a league averaging only *99* possessions per game, and while playing only 34.1 MPG.

And, he's sustained it for nearly 3 full seasons, including the playoffs.

That is truly astounding.

For those who prefer advanced metrics (that we have for all eras of the NBA), here are a few objective things to consider:

1. His 31.8 PER across the last 240 games stacks up against the best (single) seasons of Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain, and Lebron James.

2. His BPM the last 3 seasons is 11.9, which stacks up against anything Michael Jordan ever did in a (single) season. It falls top 6 all time among *single season* BPM totals.

3. His TS% of .660 would be third all time among all high volume 3 point shooters, such as himself (3+ 3PA/G). And again, that's compared to only an 82 game sample for the other players.

He's done all of this while shooting an outstanding .829 from the line, an incredible .370 from three point range on very high volume for a big man. 



Consider, too, that he's a 7 foot, 275+ lb center, not a small, adroit, shooting focused guard.

Let's compare centers three year primes/peaks. All numbers include the playoffs:

Shaq 2000-2002:
278 games
28.9/12.9/3.4 on +5.6 rTS%

Jokic 2021-2023:
241 games
26.5/12.2/8.5 on +9.0 rTS%

Kareem 1976-1978:
240 games
27.0/14.6/4.4 on +7.9 rTS%

Wilt 1966-1968:
275 games
26.8/24.6/7.2 on +7.6 rTS%

[OhayoKD]

I'll start with Jokic....

How many players, period, have had a 3 year offensive peak like Jokic? Not (just) centers:

Updated:

Consider that in the past 240 games (including the playoffs, dating back to the beginning of 2020-2021), Jokic has put up a slash line of:

26.5/12.2/8.5 on +8.7 rTS% (while also, incidentally, leading all centers in steals by a massive margin):

The only player in NBA history to put up a slash line of 26.5/12.2/8.5 in ANY 82 game season is Oscar Robertson, all the way back in 61'-62', and he did it in a game that featured *127* possessions per game, playing *44* MPG.

Jokic, on the other hand, has done this in a league averaging only *99* possessions per game, and while playing only 34.1 MPG.

And, he's sustained it for nearly 3 full seasons, including the playoffs.

That is truly astounding.

For those who prefer advanced metrics (that we have for all eras of the NBA), here are a few objective things to consider:

1. His 31.8 PER across the last 240 games stacks up against the best (single) seasons of Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain, and Lebron James.

2. His BPM the last 3 seasons is 11.9, which stacks up against anything Michael Jordan ever did in a (single) season. It falls top 6 all time among *single season* BPM totals.

3. His TS% of .660 would be third all time among all high volume 3 point shooters, such as himself (3+ 3PA/G). And again, that's compared to only an 82 game sample for the other players.

He's done all of this while shooting an outstanding .829 from the line, an incredible .370 from three point range on very high volume for a big man. 



Consider, too, that he's a 7 foot, 275+ lb center, not a small, adroit, shooting focused guard.

Let's compare centers three year primes/peaks. All numbers include the playoffs:

Shaq 2000-2002:
278 games
28.9/12.9/3.4 on +5.6 rTS%

Jokic 2021-2023:
241 games
26.5/12.2/8.5 on +9.0 rTS%

Kareem 1976-1978:
240 games
27.0/14.6/4.4 on +7.9 rTS%

Wilt 1966-1968:
275 games
26.8/24.6/7.2 on +7.6 rTS%

Pretty neat starting point for Jokic as the best offensive big ever. He's still operating at a pretty big disadvantage defensively relative to Kareem, Wilt and Lebron

[ty 4191]

Pretty neat starting point for Jokic as the best offensive big ever. He's still operating at a pretty big disadvantage defensively relative to Kareem, Wilt and Lebron

Agreed. Well said.

Where do you rank Jokic's three year peak (offensively) compared to all other centers in history? How about all other players, period?

[OhayoKD]

Pretty neat starting point for Jokic as the best offensive big ever. He's still operating at a pretty big disadvantage defensively relative to Kareem, Wilt and Lebron

Agreed. Well said.

Where do you rank Jokic's three year peak (offensively) compared to all other centers in history? How about all other players, period?

In terms of skill-set and how I'd expect him to perform across eras he's quite easily the best. Would not be shocked if he also looks the best in terms of relative-to-era offensive value(he does obliterate offensive box stuff) but I wouldn't be shocked if Shaq looks similar given he led all-time playoff offenses. Wouldn't rule out Kareem either. That said, Jokic was a much more consistent regular season player(than shaq) and I'd put any value gap(Shaq or Kareem) to era. he can score in anyway and has a case as the best passer ever. His only weakness really is his(relative to the lebrons and magics and nashes of the world) handle.

Overall is interesting. Him needing a ball-handler doesn't show up in box-stuff. When you use something like usage rate or even ben's variant "offensive load", all that's really being tracked is "how often is a player involved at the end of a possession". In the actual game, being the primary ball-handler makes it easier for teams to double you, harder to keep your turnover economy low, and is a physical burden than can wear on you for the game. It also makes it easier for players to impact winning via controlling the pace/tempo and deciding which routes to run. Being able to control everything and do so effeciently can be very valuable. And a stat like PER or BPM can't really capture that. EX: 2009 Lebron and 1990 MJ may have similar usage rates, but Jordan faced far less defensive attention and wasn't actually nearly as involved physically or mentally. That Lebron has similar turnover economy should be seen as a big advantage, but a box-metric simply can't capture that.

That said, I think Jokic is a better passer(maybe best passer ever), and I think he has better shot-selection. Additionally positions aren't irrelevant. As much as not being a clear defensive plus as a big can be a weakness(though tbf jokic actually hasn't been abused there to the degree i was expecting), what Jokic offers, as a center can be an extra strength. As bigs are the most valuable defenders, being able to torch one offensively for a game has a hidden value that a lebron or magic or nash may not be able to access.

So for now, I'm unclear. Jokic is finally going to be playing an elite defense now so things may clarify. I'd tentatively say Jokic is in the discussion for best offensive player ever, but I'm still murky on where exactly he lands up. If you recall, I actually went a bit into depth in a response to a thread you made with a projection for Jokic at the bottom:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=105158719#p105158719
Torching the lakers would solidify his spot in my top tier. If something else happens then maybe I reassess.