LeBron vs Curry looking only at 14-15 season to now

[HeartBreakKid]

I think 2018 is clearly Lebron to me, I don't really see any credible argument in Curry's favor there honestly.

Consider it this way:

LeBron basically took the RS off, and in the Finals gave the Warriors less of a fight than any of their 3 West playoff opponents - each of whom had a better SRS than the Cavs.

So if you're giving LeBron the award for 2018, you're largely doing it on the basis of what he did in the Eastern playoffs where his team barely beat a young Boston team that wouldn't have a prayer against Boston last year or this year.

And I would suggest that there's probably no way you're doing this if you aren't already convinced that LeBron has the title belt for best player in the world going into the season, which is an approach I'm not comfortable with.

It would seem to me Curry took 2018 off, not the other way around.

[Doctor MJ]

I think 2018 is clearly Lebron to me, I don't really see any credible argument in Curry's favor there honestly.

Consider it this way:

LeBron basically took the RS off, and in the Finals gave the Warriors less of a fight than any of their 3 West playoff opponents - each of whom had a better SRS than the Cavs.

So if you're giving LeBron the award for 2018, you're largely doing it on the basis of what he did in the Eastern playoffs where his team barely beat a young Boston team that wouldn't have a prayer against Boston last year or this year.

And I would suggest that there's probably no way you're doing this if you aren't already convinced that LeBron has the title belt for best player in the world going into the season, which is an approach I'm not comfortable with.

LeBron played 82 games in 2018 and posted 27/8/9 with a roster that was messed up due to Kyrie Irving requesting out.

We all know this wasn't LeBron's fault, given the history Kyrie has shown since then.

I have a hard time seeing the argument for "LeBron basically took the RS off".

Did you not see game 1? How did LeBron not give the Warriors a fight? Oh, you mean the pathetic roster of Cleveland didn't give them a fight?

Okay, so some thing to take note of:

1. While the logic of "He had no Kyrie, so he had nobody!" seems to make sense superficially, the reality is that the Cavs did BETTER without LeBron in '17-18 than they did in '14-15, '15-16 or '16-17 - LeBron's 3 years with Kyrie.

The team got worse because of their LeBron minutes. The prior 3 years when LeBron was on the floor, they had the +/- of a title contender. In '17-18 that dropped down to +1.4, he had his worst On/Off of his entire career, and he didn't lead his team in +/- for the first time since '10-11.

This is not anything that can be explained by the loss of Kyrie directly.

2. I think we have to remember that LeBron pulled one of his "I'm done with these role players, get me a new team ASAP or else" moves. If my count is correct, the Cavs ended up trading 6 of their players and multiple draft picks away before the deadline to please LeBron.

If we divide that Cavs RS into 3 chunks, it looks like this:

23-8
7-12
20-10

So this wasn't a situation where the team was left utterly lost from the start of the year but LeBron scrapped them together and they made the playoffs. They started off for nearly half the season playing at a #1 seed pace (for the East), and only then did the wheels come off...only to be put back on again after the team did what LeBron wanted, trading half the team and those future assets.

What did they get for capitulating? A re-engaged LeBron and another finals appearance.
What would they have gotten if LeBron just kept playing hard with a good attitude all year? Probably a finals appearance, and a better set of assets in the years beyond after LeBron kicked the franchise to the curb.

3. How can he coast when putting up 27/8/9? The same way Doncic can put up 40/10/10 and not really lift his team all that much. These heliocentric guys rack up numbers like crazy even when they aren't playing their best, and of course this is particularly true on defense, where in '17-18 the Cavs were ranked 29th in DRtg, and had a considerably worse rating than that when LeBron was on the floor.

4. Did I not see Game 1 of the Finals? I did, and I also know that after giving the Warriors one good fight LeBron went and punched the wall because he was a mad at a teammate making a mistake and ended up breaking his hand, and essentially handing the rest of the series to the Warriors without challenge.

A Warriors' team that was full of negative KD energy that hadn't swept anyone in the playoffs to that point and was pushed to the brink in the previous round, nearly losing, and expending everything to win in 7. Simply put, this was not a team that should have won the Finals in a sweep, and had LeBron in the Cavs put up a stubborn fight extending the series, I'd see what they did as more of an accomplishment than I do.

The reality is that this in the end was a Cavs team that did better without LeBron than prior incarnations and with him amounted to 1st round West fodder in the playoffs, which also was forced to rip apart their team and their assets to please a superstar who then left them with that mess at year's end.

I completely understand seeing LeBron as still the most capable basketball player in the world and pointing to Game 1 as proof of that capability, but in terms of what he accomplished for his team that year, the best I can say is that I'd consider him the top player in the East.

[Doctor MJ]

It would seem to me Curry took 2018 off, not the other way around.

You mean because of Curry's missed time I'm sure.

Let's consider the top 2 players from the 2 great teams of the year and the Cavs by total +/-.

On the left is their rank relative to the rest of the league:

1. Steph Curry +630 (#1 on Warriors)
2. PJ Tucker +621 (#1 on Rockets)
3. James Harden +594 (#2 on Rockets)

6. Kevin Durant +558 (#2 on Warriors)
29. Kyle Korver +317 (#1 on Cavs)
103. LeBron James +80 (#2 on Cavs)

If there's a question of:

Is it possible to take the year off while having the best +/- in the league and winning a title?

Put me down as a firm "No".

On the other hand, with LeBron it's crystal clear that this was an underperformance of massive proportions compared to what we normally see from LeBron, and as I've laid out, the superficial explanation of the Cavs being so bad without Kyrie that this was all LeBron could possibly do doesn't hold up to further scrutiny.

[Doctor MJ]

I think 2018 is clearly Lebron to me, I don't really see any credible argument in Curry's favor there honestly.

Consider it this way:

LeBron basically took the RS off, and in the Finals gave the Warriors less of a fight than any of their 3 West playoff opponents - each of whom had a better SRS than the Cavs.

So if you're giving LeBron the award for 2018, you're largely doing it on the basis of what he did in the Eastern playoffs where his team barely beat a young Boston team that wouldn't have a prayer against Boston last year or this year.

And I would suggest that there's probably no way you're doing this if you aren't already convinced that LeBron has the title belt for best player in the world going into the season, which is an approach I'm not comfortable with.

Hard to make the case that someone took an entire regular season off when they played every single game lol.

I think the real summary of 2018 is that end to end LeBron simply played better than Steph. And for the people that want to dock him points for punching a whiteboard and destroying his jumper for the rest of the Finals (*cough* Nate Duncan *cough*), that's on you. But that's still a tough case to make that Curry outplayed him for the entire season.

Especially when one of the big talking points that playoff run was the Warriors going back to featuring KD primarily in their offense when he wasn't getting enough touches in early rounds. And the Warriors played better from there. Hard for me to give Curry points for this over LeBron when the team collectively decided they felt safer in the playoffs giving KD primacy

"that's on you". Heej, that's one of the most ridiculous statements I've ever heard and I think you know it.

Did I break LeBron's hands at a time when he really, really, really needed his hands to be fully functional?
No, he did that. It's obviously on him.

Re: felt safer giving KD primacy. A few things:

1. Let's keep in mind that in Game 7 against the Rockets Curry went for 27/9/10 playing more minutes than any of his teammates and leading all starters in +/-, and that it was that 3rd quarter that really won the Warriors the game, during which outscored, outrebounded, and out assisted Durant.

2. Let's remember that all year long the Warrior locker room had turned toxic because of KD's jealousy toward Curry. KD did not get primacy over Curry because there was a challenge match in which KD was named king of the Warriors. He got it because Curry was willing to let KD have it if it made him more content.

None of this is to say that there weren't matchups where KD was better equipped to stand out, but frankly I would have hoped that the idea that KD was the unstoppable alpha and Curry was the cuck'ed beta would have been stamped out by watching KD fail, and fail, and fail, and fail, and fail, and fail, and fail to win titles without Curry while Curry won titles before and after KD was a Warrior.

[RCM88x]

Consider it this way:

LeBron basically took the RS off, and in the Finals gave the Warriors less of a fight than any of their 3 West playoff opponents - each of whom had a better SRS than the Cavs.

So if you're giving LeBron the award for 2018, you're largely doing it on the basis of what he did in the Eastern playoffs where his team barely beat a young Boston team that wouldn't have a prayer against Boston last year or this year.

And I would suggest that there's probably no way you're doing this if you aren't already convinced that LeBron has the title belt for best player in the world going into the season, which is an approach I'm not comfortable with.

LeBron played 82 games in 2018 and posted 27/8/9 with a roster that was messed up due to Kyrie Irving requesting out.

We all know this wasn't LeBron's fault, given the history Kyrie has shown since then.

I have a hard time seeing the argument for "LeBron basically took the RS off".

Did you not see game 1? How did LeBron not give the Warriors a fight? Oh, you mean the pathetic roster of Cleveland didn't give them a fight?

Okay, so some thing to take note of:

1. While the logic of "He had no Kyrie, so he had nobody!" seems to make sense superficially, the reality is that the Cavs did BETTER without LeBron in '17-18 than they did in '14-15, '15-16 or '16-17 - LeBron's 3 years with Kyrie.

The team got worse because of their LeBron minutes. The prior 3 years when LeBron was on the floor, they had the +/- of a title contender. In '17-18 that dropped down to +1.4, he had his worst On/Off of his entire career, and he didn't lead his team in +/- for the first time since '10-11.

This is not anything that can be explained by the loss of Kyrie directly.

2. I think we have to remember that LeBron pulled one of his "I'm done with these role players, get me a new team ASAP or else" moves. If my count is correct, the Cavs ended up trading 6 of their players and multiple draft picks away before the deadline to please LeBron.

If we divide that Cavs RS into 3 chunks, it looks like this:

23-8
7-12
20-10

So this wasn't a situation where the team was left utterly lost from the start of the year but LeBron scrapped them together and they made the playoffs. They started off for nearly half the season playing at a #1 seed pace (for the East), and only then did the wheels come off...only to be put back on again after the team did what LeBron wanted, trading half the team and those future assets.

What did they get for capitulating? A re-engaged LeBron and another finals appearance.
What would they have gotten if LeBron just kept playing hard with a good attitude all year? Probably a finals appearance, and a better set of assets in the years beyond after LeBron kicked the franchise to the curb.

3. How can he coast when putting up 27/8/9? The same way Doncic can put up 40/10/10 and not really lift his team all that much. These heliocentric guys rack up numbers like crazy even when they aren't playing their best, and of course this is particularly true on defense, where in '17-18 the Cavs were ranked 29th in DRtg, and had a considerably worse rating than that when LeBron was on the floor.

4. Did I not see Game 1 of the Finals? I did, and I also know that after giving the Warriors one good fight LeBron went and punched the wall because he was a mad at a teammate making a mistake and ended up breaking his hand, and essentially handing the rest of the series to the Warriors without challenge.

A Warriors' team that was full of negative KD energy that hadn't swept anyone in the playoffs to that point and was pushed to the brink in the previous round, nearly losing, and expending everything to win in 7. Simply put, this was not a team that should have won the Finals in a sweep, and had LeBron in the Cavs put up a stubborn fight extending the series, I'd see what they did as more of an accomplishment than I do.

The reality is that this in the end was a Cavs team that did better without LeBron than prior incarnations and with him amounted to 1st round West fodder in the playoffs, which also was forced to rip apart their team and their assets to please a superstar who then left them with that mess at year's end.

I completely understand seeing LeBron as still the most capable basketball player in the world and pointing to Game 1 as proof of that capability, but in terms of what he accomplished for his team that year, the best I can say is that I'd consider him the top player in the East.

What future assets did they spend? Pretty much on all fronts those moves midseason where eyed at the future post Lebron, they improved their collection future assets. They were way better off in 2019 having made those moves than they would have been otherwise. Trading a bunch of old role players on expiring deals for young guys who they could use in the future. If anything I think the team was probably worse post trade and probably would have ended up in the same spot regardless of those moves. Not sure why Lebron is to blame for that or how that effects his on court value. The Cavs were just acting in a sub-optimal way (as they often do) and seized the opportunity to punt on a season where they had a contending team to prepare for the future. They clearly though they still would be decent since they gave Kevin Love a massive contract that offseason that immediately made him un-tradeable, probably because the owner was acting out of spite and controlling a young GM.

I don't agree with your analysis of this situation at all, and I am not really interested in arguing about it more. If you're going to take the position that Lebron made that team worse, fine, I just think it's just completely ridiculous.

[Heej]

Consider it this way:

LeBron basically took the RS off, and in the Finals gave the Warriors less of a fight than any of their 3 West playoff opponents - each of whom had a better SRS than the Cavs.

So if you're giving LeBron the award for 2018, you're largely doing it on the basis of what he did in the Eastern playoffs where his team barely beat a young Boston team that wouldn't have a prayer against Boston last year or this year.

And I would suggest that there's probably no way you're doing this if you aren't already convinced that LeBron has the title belt for best player in the world going into the season, which is an approach I'm not comfortable with.

Hard to make the case that someone took an entire regular season off when they played every single game lol.

I think the real summary of 2018 is that end to end LeBron simply played better than Steph. And for the people that want to dock him points for punching a whiteboard and destroying his jumper for the rest of the Finals (*cough* Nate Duncan *cough*), that's on you. But that's still a tough case to make that Curry outplayed him for the entire season.

Especially when one of the big talking points that playoff run was the Warriors going back to featuring KD primarily in their offense when he wasn't getting enough touches in early rounds. And the Warriors played better from there. Hard for me to give Curry points for this over LeBron when the team collectively decided they felt safer in the playoffs giving KD primacy

"that's on you". Heej, that's one of the most ridiculous statements I've ever heard and I think you know it.

Did I break LeBron's hands at a time when he really, really, really needed his hands to be fully functional?
No, he did that. It's obviously on him.

Re: felt safer giving KD primacy. A few things:

1. Let's keep in mind that in Game 7 against the Rockets Curry went for 27/9/10 playing more minutes than any of his teammates and leading all starters in +/-, and that it was that 3rd quarter that really won the Warriors the game, during which outscored, outrebounded, and out assisted Durant.

2. Let's remember that all year long the Warrior locker room had turned toxic because of KD's jealousy toward Curry. KD did not get primacy over Curry because there was a challenge match in which KD was named king of the Warriors. He got it because Curry was willing to let KD have it if it made him more content.

None of this is to say that there weren't matchups where KD was better equipped to stand out, but frankly I would have hoped that the idea that KD was the unstoppable alpha and Curry was the cuck'ed beta would have been stamped out by watching KD fail, and fail, and fail, and fail, and fail, and fail, and fail to win titles without Curry while Curry won titles before and after KD was a Warrior.

Oh sorry, should've clarified that if you think that's enough to put LeBron below Curry like Nate Duncan did that's on you. I don't find that case compelling at all tho.

And while jealousy may have been an issue, the fact of the matter was that the Warriors straight up played better overall as a team funnelling more high post touches to KD and getting guards switched onto him while letting Steph and Klay run off-ball.

We've seen this last playoff series that there's a lower ceiling to Steph heliocentrism than people are willing to admit. And LOL @ bringing up a specific game when these guys are good enough to be the best player in any particular game.

Still doesn't change the fact that the Warriors looked better when KD had more touches and plays called for him than Steph. LeBron punching a whiteboard is not enough to dock him such that Steph suddenly closes that gap for the entire year.

In regards to KD only failing after leaving Curry and Curry winning, if that's all you're going to take away from their career outcomes since then I'm afraid it's not even reasonably worth my time to pursue something that attempts to resemble a fruitful discussion if the name of the game is to set context on fire and throw it out the window entirely.

Btw KD was a straight up better player than Steph in his failed title run in 21 (shout-out Giannis injuring Kyrie and making KD wear shoes that were 2 sizes too big) than Steph was in 22.

[OhayoKD]

Bruh

I think 2018 is clearly Lebron to me, I don't really see any credible argument in Curry's favor there honestly.

Consider it this way:

LeBron basically took the RS off, and in the Finals gave the Warriors less of a fight than any of their 3 West playoff opponents - each of whom had a better SRS than the Cavs.

So if you're giving LeBron the award for 2018, you're largely doing it on the basis of what he did in the Eastern playoffs where his team barely beat a young Boston team that wouldn't have a prayer against Boston last year or this year.

And I would suggest that there's probably no way you're doing this if you aren't already convinced that LeBron has the title belt for best player in the world going into the season, which is an approach I'm not comfortable with.

It would seem to me Curry took 2018 off, not the other way around.

The teams that took a game from the Warriors were the 65-win harden+cp3+capela Rockets and the Pelicans and Spurs, when Curry wasn't in the lineup. The 2018 cavs played 19-win ball with a similar Lebron-less rotation with love(injured during the playoffs). Even if the 18 cavs were just a 50-ish win team in the postseason, it would reflect incredible lift from Lebron's part to go with a much more statistically dominant playoff performance(especially in the finals) after playing every game in the regular season(steph did not). The better question is why the Warriors were 3-2 down to the Rockets when healthy. The Warriors had a massive talent advantage(even without iggy) and were on-pace to choke in the conference finals with KD arguably outplaying Steph(higher via impact and box-metrics).

This is just lazy analysis. And even lazier is how you seem to be evaluating impact:

What analytical value does raw +/- have, Doc?

None. But Lebron smokes if you include the "off" bit, sooooo

Your cynicism is unhelpful. Please restrain yourself.

For the record, there's no intuitively obvious way to accumulate on/off across seasons maningfully - I don't consider anything with regression to be "obvious" for the average basketball fan - but if you want to just go by career average On/Off in general, Curry looks pretty monstrous.

Curry: RS On/Off +11.3, PS On/Off +12.0
LeBron: RS On/Off +10.8, PS On/Off +10.3

True. You know who also looks monstrous with unadjusted on/off?

Draymond: RS On/Off: +9.6, PS On/Off: +12.6

Gee. I wonder what would happen if we adjusted for lineups...



Huh? Lebron is #1 and Steph isn't close? Well okay, maybe that's a fluke. Different creators use different means of regression, blah, blah blah...


(Yeah it's not going to get better)

First, I want everyone to appreciate just how far ahead Lebron is, per possession. In the first set, if I count Embid, the gap between Lebron and #2 is about as big as the gap between #2 Embid and #5 Steph Curry. If I apply a 100000 possession filter, the gap between Lebron and #2 Garnett is bigger than the gap between #2 Garnett and #6 Tim Duncan.

Second, let's check the possession count. Keeping in mind, that averages tend to go down the longer you play, Lebron has maintained this large advantage having played 70,000 more minutes than #2(or 3) Garnett and nearly twice as much as #6(or 7) Steph Curry.

Again, with the second-set, Lebron is dominant per-possession, posting the best, 2nd best, and 4th best 5-year marks. But what happens when we also look at the # of possessions...



See that circle? It's the Lebron system. It has 3 planets. one of them is named "2013-2017 Lebron". "2013-2017 Lebron"'s climate has 3 unique seasons, 2015 Lebron, 2016 Lebron, and 2017 Lebron. If we switch to Elgee's data(where Lebron also "cooks")...



All 3 are at the tippity top, right there with the second best season on record

(disclaimer: getting the best, the second best, or the third best season isn't significant inofitself. At a certain treshold, adjusted stuff starts misattributing value, if you want to distingush between single-season, you need to get into the weeds. What's note-worthy is how frequently a player scores near or at the top, and how you look over extended samples. RAPM is great for establishing a baseline of value, not deciding if 2004 kg is more valuable than 2016 draymond)

Regardless, 2015-2017 consistently grades out as a top-tier 3-year stretch with the adjusted stuff. And yet...

15 - Curry(easily)
16 - LeBron(very close)
17 - Curry(very close)
18 - LeBron(very close)
19 - Curry
20 - LeBron(extra super duper easy)
21 - Curry(Very close)
22 - Curry
23- Curry


LeBron has this thing of having fringe MVP RS, .

It's surprising how close LeBron is here. I think he was better but I'd take Curry's career obviously (rings aside)

'15 Curry was clearly better
'16 LeBron had the higher series/single game peak; Curry had one of the ATG seasons, so it's kinda close
'17-'18 Curry's basically as good as '16, slightly better, but doesn't show cause of Durant; LeBron has asome all-time playoff performances
'19 duh
'20 duh
'21-'22 Curry clearly but it's mega injury marred
'23 uninjured LeBron somehow better than Curry and injured LeBron outplays him in critical moments in the playoffs...

Yeah it's tough. I think LeBron's the better player and can express that "betterness" maybe 20% of the time vs. Curry who can sustain ~95% of that level longer.

Curry probably overall (by a hair)
LeBron better player

This is insane you can exclude 11 seasons of LeBron (4x MVP, 2x Finals MVP) in the best days athletically of him and it's still very arguable that he was better than borderline top10 player ever (Curry) impact-wise.

Just longevity stats some people say...

Curry better RS performer, LeBron better PS performer is a comfortable assessment to make here.

Not only that, you’re also excluding all of his all defense selection seasons, two of which he was second in DPOY voting.

I think some people forget just how good LeBron was.

hmm...

Regular Season
Let's start with 2015. To set the table, the lebron-less cavs with kyrie and love are a bad defense and average offense if you go by net-rating(-1.73 overall, 30ish wins). This is also true in 2016(-1.7), 2017(-2.81) which adds up to -1.99 for all 3-seasons. Without any of the 3, the cavs are -14.62.

With Lebron and no kyrie or love, the Cavs are +6.79. With all 3 they're [b]+10.76[/b](PBPstats). with both and without both Lebron looks historically valuable.

But maybe this is just a matter of wonky lineups/rotations? Well, we can then look at WOWY, only including games where the Cavaliers knew they'd be playing without Lebron. In 2015 they were 3-10 without Lebron. Extending our sample the Cavs out to 2017 and the Cavs were 4-23. In games without Lebron and with Kyrie and Love, the cavs were 4-11, a 21-win pace.

With Lebron, the 2015 Cavs went 50-19(59-win). Without they went 3-10 going at a 19-win pace. With all three of Love, Kyrie, and Lebron, the Cavs were 42-5(73-win) improving from 4-11 with just kyrie and love 21-win(note that's a 3-year sample, not just 2015).

What if we forget w-l and look at the o-rating and d-rating splits:




(it's probably not a matter of rotations

In summary, adjusted, lineup-splits, and wowy all seem to agree 2015 Lebron, back problems and all, was all-time valuable. It also seems that the Cavs improved dramatically on offense when he was on the floor while also significantly bolstering cleveland defensively. But how? Well, I think we can get a clue when we look at how Lebron's teammates shot with and without:


Lebron's teammates shoot dramatically more efficiently with Lebron on the floor. Incidentally, Lebron has an ast% of 36 to go with a tov% of 3:1. Lebron also isn't scoring inefficiently as he would in the playoffs(more on that later) scoring 25 points on +4.1 rTS. Finally their is the mental side of the game, and here we get back to Lebron having one of the highest bbal iq's ever:

Which is what makes LeBron so incredible because he's been the control tower on offense and defense for damn near his entire career. We've had coaches and teammates describe him as a coach on the floor. There was an article during the 2018 Finals I remember where JR Smith said LeBron's communication on the floor legitimately makes everyone one step faster on defense. And this is something he doesn't get nearly enough credit for. But this is a big deal to people who are actually in the game and around the game, because one of the major talking points about the Lakers acquiring Rondo for LeBron was about how helpful it would be for LeBron to have someone else think the game for him and organize sets and get guys to their spots.

All considered, if you combine strong scoring, great-playmaking, the ability to handle the ball and control pace alot more than anyone else(without commiting too many turnovers) and being a "control tower" like draymond is for the Warriors, it's not hard to see why Lebron can still look all-time-valuable even if he isn't at his physical peak. Combine that with still historically good non-big d, and you get an extremely yaluable regular season player, even in down year, and then we get to the...

Playoffs
For 2015-2017, the Cavs without lebron and with kyrie and love go from -1.99 to -5.05. the Cavs with none of the three go from -14.62 to -11.62. Frankly i'm not inclined to rely on these samples(a combined 280 minutes is covered here), and would recommend using the larger regular season stuff as an "off", regardless, whatever happens with the lebron-less teams, the lineups with lebron improve, The +6.79 no kyrie/love lineups from the regular season improve to +8.47(648 minutes) and the lebron and kyrie and love lineups improve from 10.76 to +14.50.

As importantly, this lineup-level improvement manifests in team-wide elevation:

Playoff Offensive Rating: +4.2 (63rd), Playoff Defensive Rating: -5.4 (44th)
Playoff SRS: +9.98 (65th), Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: +3.72 (26th)
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: +2.85 (32nd), Average Playoff Opponent Defense: -2.37 (41st)

(2015)

While Lebron's net-rating without kyrie and love drops to +4.83(doesn't adjust for opponent quality), the Cavs post an inciredible +10 PSRS with the two co-stars basically missing half of the postseason. Moreover, with kyrie barely playing, they sweep a 50ish win srs(60-win record) Hawks team and go 2-1 up on the 67-win Warriors forcing a switch to the 73-win inducing death-lineup. Again, you may ask, how? Didn't Lebron shoot bad?

His TS does plummet by 8 points, but he also goes from scoring 25ppg to 30ppg. And whatever you think of that scoring trade-off, lebron's creation improves:


Take a peep at Kyrie Irving. While he's basically unaffected by Lebron in the regular season, his playoff shooting spikes by 9 points when Lebron is on the floor.

As it so happens, Lebron puts up goat-level playmaking-box stuff(and the best of his playoff prime(, putting up an ast% of 45 to a tov% of only 11%. In the finals, against the best playoff defense of the era, Lebron puts up an ast% of 52 on a tov% of 8 in for, at least per box, one of the best playmaking series ever.

The Cavs also improve defensively, with Lebron anchoring a -5.4 playoff defense. Check who that defense performs best against:

Boston Celtics: +7.1 / -3.0
Chicago Bulls: +8.0 / -1.6
Atlanta Hawks: +10.9 / -9.1
Golden State Warriors: -1.7 / -4.3

Detroit Pistons: +14.9 / +4.4
Atlanta Hawks: +21.5 / +4.0
Toronto Raptors: +13.3 / -8.8
Golden State Warriors: +5.3 / -6.0

Overall, the 15/16 Cavs were elite playoff defenses, elevating significantly from "ok" in the regular season(bad without Lebron), and then turning all-time great against top 5 offenses(including the small-ball warriors). While they regress a bit in 2016 in the playoffs(kevin love and kyrie irving lineups consistently look worse defensively than lineups without the two), they remain elite overall and hit another gear in the last two rounds.

There's a narrative going around that Lebron "stopped giving effort". It's true he wasn't as active as he was in miami(and especially as active as he was in 2009/2010), but Lebron was still a historically great(for non-bigs) in the regular season...

Read on Twitter

(2014 is by far the worst scoring year of Lebron's prime defensively)

...to elite big-man level in the postseason. Narrowing down into the years in question, the idea that Lebron being great defensively was restricted to the playoffs is wholly baseless:

Spoiler:

The more and more I look at it, Lebron’s 2016 defensive season looks to be one the best ever for a #1 scoring option who’s not a center and one of the best wing defensive years regardless.

1. First of all, I know there has to be other seasons in which a player was in the top 40%-50% of each of the defensive play types but I have’t seen one other than LeBron. I haven’t looked extensively, but have looked at 2019 PG13, Giannis, Kawhi, Siakam, KD (not that I thought he was a DPOY type defensive force [he’s improved greatly] but for comparisons to LeBron and his supposed horrid defense), 2018 RoCo and Roberson, 2016 Kawhi, Draymond, and LeBron.

LeBron, 2016 was not only top 50% in everything but at worst was top 27% in post up defense. Yes, there may not be many possessions in certain play types so there’s less meaning there, but every other player falls short somewhere.

Top 12% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 3% in defending hand offs
Top 16% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Top 15% in defending off of screens
Top 7% in defending in ISO
Top 27% in post up defense
Top 13% in spot up defense

Compare these numbers with these:

Kawhi, 2016—DPOY on a GOATy defensive team and maybe co-#1 option with LMA

Top 10% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 22% in defending hand offs
Top 2% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Bottom 31% in defending off of screens
Top 17% in defending in ISO
Top 29% in post up defense
Top 25% in spot up defense

Draymond, 2016—2nd in DPOY voting on a GOAT team and not the #1 option on offense

Top 29% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Bottom 43% in defending hand offs
Top 25% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Top 2% in defending off of screens
Top 15% in defending in ISO
Top 11% in post up defense
Top 34% in spot up defense

PG13—2019 considered a DPOY candidate and co-#1 option with Westbrook

Top 12% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 23% in defending hand offs
Bottom 16% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Bottom 27% in defending off of screens
Top 13% in defending in ISO
Top 5% in post up defense
Top 19% in spot up defense

ISO defense

LeBron: .59 points per possession (PPP), 93rd percentile
Draymond: .68, 85th percentile
Kawhi: .69 PPP, 83rd percentile

Pick and roll ball handler

Kawhi: .65 PPP, 90th percentile
LeBron: .66 PPP, 88th percentile
Draymond: .88, 71st percentile

Pick and roll roll man

Kawhi: .50 PPP, 98th percentile
LeBron: .70 PPP, 84th percentile
Draymond: .77 PPP, 75th percentile

Post defense

Draymond: .65 PPP, 89th percentile
LeBron: .77 PPP, 73rd percentile
Kawhi: .77 PPP, 71st percentile (numbers are rounded so James might have been at .772 and Kawhi at .768 or something)

Spot up defense

LeBron: .80 PPP, 87th percentile
Kawhi: .88 PPP, 75th percentile
Draymond: .91 PPP, 66th percentile

Off screens defense

Draymond: .45 PPP, 98th percentile
LeBron: .74PPP, 85th percentile
Kawhi: 1.05 PPP, 31st percentile

Hand offs defense

LeBron: .49 97th percentile
Kawhi: .72 PPP, 78th percentile
Draymond: .91 PPP, 43rd percentile

No data available for transition defense, defense on cuts, and defense on offensive rebound out backs. In his thirteenth season playing on a team that's otherwise not that good defensively, James quietly out together a great, great defensive season because he had to since his team really had maybe three other plus defenders. Unlike Kawhi and Draymond who were subpar in some categories, James was at worst in the 73rd percentile.

The argument, “well, LeBron didn’t match up against the opposition’s best scorers doesn’t really hold water because look at the overall FG% of Dray’s, Kawhi’s, and LeBron’s opposition.

Players Draymond defended: 45.5%
Players Kawhi defended: 44.8%
Players LeBron defunded: 44.7%

Regular season

Draymond Green:

Overall: 39.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 45.5%, -6.1%
Threes: 29.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 34.6%, -5.1%
Twos: 42.9 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 49.2%, -6.3%
<6ft: 51.9 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 60.6%, -8.7%

Kawhi

Overall: 39.2 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 44.8%, -5.6%
Threes: 33.7 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 34.9, -1.2%
Twos: 41.7 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 48.8%, -7.2%
<6ft: 53.5 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 60.5%, -7.0%

LeBron:

Overall: 37.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 44.7%, -7.3%
Threes: 32.1 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 34.6%, -2.6%
Twos: 40.8 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 49.0%, -8.2%
<6ft: 48.6 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 59.9%, -11.3%

Though you addressed the playoffs, LeBron’s defense alone in those playoffs/Finals are noteworthy because it indicates peak possible defense. Combine that with his offense and it’s the greatest of all time Finals performance.

Sideshow had an RPM estimate of +8 to +9 on offense and +5 to +6 on defense. That’s a +15 player and that’s bonkers. It’s like one of the crazy “How good would Magic Pippen” or “How good would Hakeem Curry” creations come to life.

LeBron’s defense In the playoffs was ridiculous:

Overall: 31.9 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 45.9%, -14.0%
Threes: 24.1 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 36.7%, -12. 6%
Twos: 36.6 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 50.5%, -13.9%
<6ft: 37.9 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 61.3%, -23.5%

LeBron In the finals was utterly ridiculous:

Overall: 31.6 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 47.9%, -16.3%
Threes: 29.0 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 39.6%, -10.6%
Twos: 33.3 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 53.6%, -20.3%
<6ft: 38.5 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 63.6%, -25.1%

LeBron In the finals’ last three games was I don’t know what:

Overall: 19.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 47.4, -28.4%
Threes: 12.5 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 40.7%, -28.2%
Twos: 25 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 52.4%, -27.4%
<6ft: 15.4 DFG%, opponents usually shoot 60.6%, -45.2

This was game 5 defense https://stats.nba.com/player/2544/defense-dash/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Playoffs&DateTo=06%2F13%2F2016&DateFrom=06%2F13%2F2016&PORound=4

This was game 6 defense https://stats.nba.com/player/2544/defense-dash/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Playoffs&DateTo=06%2F16%2F2016&DateFrom=06%2F16%2F2016&PORound=4

The Warriors shot 4 for 28 overall (3/17 in game 5, 1/11 in game 6) in those two games (14.3%) when going against LeBron and that doesn’t include his team defense, defensive rebounding, rotations, etc,

The Warriors shot 2/13 AT THE RIM against LeBron during the final three games. Had James not stopped those shots (everyone knows the blocked shot on Iggy), Warriors win.

The guy not only led them in scoring and creating offense for others, he led their perimeter defense AND was one of the best “rim protectors” in the 2016 NBA playoffs.

These were the best rim protectors in the 2016 NBA playoffs

https://stats.nba.com/players/defense-dash-lt6/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Playoffs&sort=PLUSMINUS&dir=-1&CF=FGA_LT_06*GE*3

NBA.com has stats going back to the 2014 playoffs. For players who who contested at least 3 shots per game at the rim and played at least 6 games in the playoffs, LeBron is tied with Duncan with the best single season rim protection that we have on record. He did that WHILE being 31, not at his athletic peak AND being tasked with creating his team’s offense.

These were the best defenders of three pointers in the 2016 playoffs (defended at least 3.8 threes per game, played at least 6 games)

https://stats.nba.com/players/defense-dash-3pt/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Playoffs&sort=PLUSMINUS&dir=-1&CF=FG3A*GE*3.8:GP*GE*6

[/quote]

At 31, Lebron looked was just as good as Kawhi in the regular season. Then he blew clear in the playoffs. Just because a guy isn't "guarding up" does not mean they aren't playing great defense:

The posts about LeBron not having enough traditional defensive counting stats pointing to a lack of activity is exactly what's wrong with basketball discourse when discussing defense. Unless you've played organized ball or have taken the time to watch professional level coaching videos on defense, you're not going to appreciate the fact that the most important thing a help defender can be on defense is a "yellow light".
Someone who's able to plug up the gaps or is far enough over on the weakside to "help the helper" and allow the closer weakside defender to fill the gap, or something as simple as tagging a roll man to fly out to a shooter and cause a record scratch is faaaaar more valuable over time than a flashy chest to chest lockdown guy.

The most valuable defensive possession is not a contest, it's when the opponent can't even shoot the ball or has to shoot the ball under awful conditions. A considerable portion of someone like Hakeem's defensive value is when opposing teams won't even attempt a shot because they know he'll be there.

LeBron is the best wing defender in NBA history at this type of defensive jiujitsu. And if he was a better man-to-man perimeter defender with better footwork and a lower offensive load he'd be the best wing defender of all time.

When LeBron studies and remembers your playbook, has the IQ and awarenesses to properly react to an offensive threat, and is either in a position to blow up the action or [u]communicate with his teammate so they can do it that provides incredible defensive value.

That the Cavs were consistent playoff-monsters...

Playoff Offensive Rating: +4.2 (63rd), Playoff Defensive Rating: -5.4 (44th)
Playoff SRS: +9.98 (65th), [b]Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: +3.72 (26th)
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: +2.85 (32nd), Average Playoff Opponent Defense: -2.37 (41st)

Playoff Offensive Rating: +11.43 (4th), Playoff Defensive Rating: -3.82 (68th)
Playoff SRS: +14.55 (8th), Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: +5.84 (5th)
Shooting Advantage: +3.1%, Possession Advantage: +2.7 shooting possessions per game
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: +3.42 (16th), Average Playoff Opponent Defense: -2.33 (43rd)

Playoff Offensive Rating: +13.17 (2nd), Playoff Defensive Rating: +0.01 (95th)
Playoff SRS: +13.74 (18th), Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: +6.59 (2nd)
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: +3.29 (19th), Average Playoff Opponent Defense: -1.67 (61st)

...does not mean Lebron was some rs sand-bagger with who was playing like a "fringe-mvp". Just because a metric like PER or BPm, which largely can't account for paint-protection, creation quality, ball-handling, or a player directing their teammates on both ends of the floor, puts steph up there as the "best regular season ever"(with Steph's defense apparently being on the same level as dikembe because he led the league as steals) does not mean there was some ginormous gap regarding the totality of what they offered. And what ever gap they may have been in the regular season, was wiped in the postseason:




While the Cavs consistently elevated, Curry's Warriors dropped before Durant and then turned into "playoff-risers" because Durant would actually sandbag the regular seasons in the way people act like Lebron did.

While Curry's on/off may have gone up(dray says hi), when we adjust for lineups(somewhat muting the effects of draymond and steph always playing together), we see Draymond's value go up while Steph's goes down. Incidentally, in the playoffs, the Warriors turn into a defensive dynasty.

Lebron's per-possession's advantage is all the more impressive when you consider the minutes averaged:




While I know people like to bring up the per-possession **** from 2015 and 2017 to push Curry and Lebron as comparable, that parity collapses once you account for minutes played. Simply put, Lebron was clearly the more valuable postseason player. And honestly, that shouldn't be shocking, considering that in 4 straight finals, playing a much better defense, it was Lebron who put up the better numbers while having far more responsibility both offensively AND defensively, and receiving significantly more defensive attention:

Watch on YouTube

Just because it was easier for Durant does not mean it wasn't also easy for Steph. Yet there's no real evidentiary reason to think Steph was Lebron's equal besides him happening to win. As it so happens, when Lebron beat Steph on one leg last week, everyone clamored to tell me that Steph was better, even though there's a perfectly reasonable case to be made(or at least stronger than what I'm seeing for steph>bron) that Lebron(in year 20) was more valuable in the regular season and the playoffs:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=106209275#p106209275

That Lebron in his early 30's was up there should be no surprise considering that Lebron and Steph have graded out as comparably valuable regular season players(per-possession) over the last 3 seasons(with lebron in a sub-optimal situation):
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=105221155#p105221155

That Lebron in his early 30's was up there should also be no suprise considering he also had an all-time valuable regular season in 2020 in year 17.

To finish I'll let unibro sum things up:

As a quick overall encompassing TLDR:

Lebrons RS was all time level, brought a 20-25 win team considering health to a 57 win team, its just unimpressive relative to his own scoring efforts. This was mainly because he was better defensively, in terms of IQ rotations and breaking up plays covering for teammates mistakes etc etc. he wasnt as flashy doing it though so people have his miami defense above

In the playoffs, he led ATG offenses while he was on the court relative to when other players were on the court throughout the ECF, and his defense as a whole went from All NBA-first team tier in my opinion to DPOY level (With the caveat that Kawhi and Draymond are absurd defenders so he wouldnt get first team in the RS. I think he was the second best defender in the playoffs outside of Dray, who I think things point to being one of the absolute best playoff defenders in nba history) despite not getting out of third gear until the ECF (which in every way is a practical decision)

In the finals, he struggled offensively but as a whole id assume and especially through the last 3 games he more than made up for it defensively.I think his defense went from DPOY to DPOY Signature Series level in the last 3 games

I think the 2 way impact actual does pretty far exceed everyone elses, I think hes playoff offense impact is far closer to jordan than the defensive gap, which I dont think theres any evidence that Jordan was close to that on that end, which is supported by the defense when he left being exactly the same despite kukoc and kerr and payne being the main additions and alot of their core remaining the same.

In the finals, he "struggled" offensively (really only he was passive in 2-3 games out of the 7) but his defense got turnt up to an absurd degree, GOAT defensive series by a perimeter player in my opinion by a pretty large amount

TBH, it's not that close. Explain it away however you wish, but Lebron was very clearly the more valuable player from 15-20, and honestly, you'd be hard-pressed to make a concrete case that wasn't also true for 20-23. As we just saw, Lebron doesn't even need to dominate the ball to go toe to toe with Steph(on a potential season ender having played 65k minutes). He's just better, and I'm not sure why we're always grasping for reasons to pretend otherwise.

[tone wone]

Inflated +/- and fake intangible nonsense is all Curry ever had on James.

Since coming to LA LeBron has suffered 3 major leg injuries that wrecked 3 seasons, had Luke Walton as head coach and a season and a half of Russell Westbrook and despite this; Curry still hasn't put any separation between them. Isnt this proof he was never actually better.

I mean this season alone; LeBron had a preseason foot problem that lead to a terrible start; a rookie head coach going through growing pains with a bad roster due Westbrook still being the team; a mid-season roster overhaul and major foot injury and yet was flat out better than Steph full stop.

[Doctor MJ]

What future assets did they spend? Pretty much on all fronts those moves midseason where eyed at the future post Lebron, they improved their collection future assets. They were way better off in 2019 having made those moves than they would have been otherwise. Trading a bunch of old role players on expiring deals for young guys who they could use in the future. If anything I think the team was probably worse post trade and probably would have ended up in the same spot regardless of those moves. Not sure why Lebron is to blame for that or how that effects his on court value. The Cavs were just acting in a sub-optimal way (as they often do) and seized the opportunity to punt on a season where they had a contending team to prepare for the future. They clearly though they still would be decent since they gave Kevin Love a massive contract that offseason that immediately made him un-tradeable, probably because the owner was acting out of spite and controlling a young GM.

I don't agree with your analysis of this situation at all, and I am not really interested in arguing about it more. If you're going to take the position that Lebron made that team worse, fine, I just think it's just completely ridiculous.

Hmm, this post confuses me, but I know you know more about the Cavs than I do.

They gave up a 1st round pick. They didn't do that for the future...right?

[RCM88x]

What future assets did they spend? Pretty much on all fronts those moves midseason where eyed at the future post Lebron, they improved their collection future assets. They were way better off in 2019 having made those moves than they would have been otherwise. Trading a bunch of old role players on expiring deals for young guys who they could use in the future. If anything I think the team was probably worse post trade and probably would have ended up in the same spot regardless of those moves. Not sure why Lebron is to blame for that or how that effects his on court value. The Cavs were just acting in a sub-optimal way (as they often do) and seized the opportunity to punt on a season where they had a contending team to prepare for the future. They clearly though they still would be decent since they gave Kevin Love a massive contract that offseason that immediately made him un-tradeable, probably because the owner was acting out of spite and controlling a young GM.

I don't agree with your analysis of this situation at all, and I am not really interested in arguing about it more. If you're going to take the position that Lebron made that team worse, fine, I just think it's just completely ridiculous.

Hmm, this post confuses me, but I know you know more about the Cavs than I do.

They gave up a 1st round pick. They didn't do that for the future...right?

A first round pick (25th overall), for 2 solid starters under the age of 26 with multiple years left. I think that is definitely a future looking move. Cavs just were completely deluded into thinking that the team sans Lebron could contend after 2018 should he leave. If they tried to move those two guys after the season they surely could have gotten more draft capital back than #25 overall

[OhayoKD]

Inflated +/- and fake intangible nonsense is all Curry ever had on James.

Since coming to LA LeBron has suffered 3 major leg injuries that wrecked 3 seasons, had Luke Walton as head coach and a season and a half of Russell Westbrook and despite this; Curry still hasn't put any separation between them. Isnt this proof he was never actually better.

I mean this season alone; LeBron had a preseason foot problem that lead to a terrible start; a rookie head coach going through growing pains with a bad roster due Westbrook still being the team; a mid-season roster overhaul and major foot injury and yet was flat out better than Steph full stop.

Not even:

Steph: +3442 from 2015-18
Warriors: +3154 from 2015-18
NET: +288
Lebron: +1744 from 2015-18
Cavaliers: +1197 from 2015-18
NET: +547

Steph: +1017 from 2021-23
Warriors: +678 from 2021-23
NET: +339
Lebron: +384 from 2021-23
Lakers: -2 from 2021-23
NET: +386

[Doctor MJ]

What future assets did they spend? Pretty much on all fronts those moves midseason where eyed at the future post Lebron, they improved their collection future assets. They were way better off in 2019 having made those moves than they would have been otherwise. Trading a bunch of old role players on expiring deals for young guys who they could use in the future. If anything I think the team was probably worse post trade and probably would have ended up in the same spot regardless of those moves. Not sure why Lebron is to blame for that or how that effects his on court value. The Cavs were just acting in a sub-optimal way (as they often do) and seized the opportunity to punt on a season where they had a contending team to prepare for the future. They clearly though they still would be decent since they gave Kevin Love a massive contract that offseason that immediately made him un-tradeable, probably because the owner was acting out of spite and controlling a young GM.

I don't agree with your analysis of this situation at all, and I am not really interested in arguing about it more. If you're going to take the position that Lebron made that team worse, fine, I just think it's just completely ridiculous.

Hmm, this post confuses me, but I know you know more about the Cavs than I do.

They gave up a 1st round pick. They didn't do that for the future...right?

A first round pick (25th overall), for 2 solid starters under the age of 26 with multiple years left. I think that is definitely a future looking move. Cavs just were completely deluded into thinking that the team sans Lebron could contend after 2018 should he leave. If they tried to move those two guys after the season they surely could have gotten more draft capital back than #25 overall

I'm skeptical. These were two guys who played as bench players in those playoffs. I generally don't expect teams to be able to package bench guys and get a 1st rounder for it. Am I misinformed?

[eminence]

I'd say you should really primarily look at seasons from '15 to now to compare '15 to now, but maybe I'm old-fashioned.

[OhayoKD]

I’ve said very recently I have LeBron as my GOAT, mostly on the basis of his career in Cleveland (first stint) and Miami, and given how long he’s been a top 5 player. Doesn’t mean I have to think he’s better post-peak than peak Curry, who I have as a borderline top five player all-time.

What lead you to pushing up Lebron as your GOAT? I think you had Bill Russell #1 for a time if I am correct?

My criteria has always been performance in today’s league. What Russell did was incredible, but I don’t think he would be able to have the same impact in the 2023 NBA.

LeBron has more top 5 seasons than anybody in NBA history. I don’t think there’s a realistic case having him below #1 at this point.

I mean this just begs more questions. Whether you go by adjusted stuff, net, or wowy/indirect(scroll up a couple of posts to see, the most valuable players are Lebron(a wing who can emulate like a big). KG(big), Duncan(big) and if you apply a lower minutes filter Draymond(the big who played with Steph). Those first three players have a gigantic minutes advantage over Steph and the first on the list mantains that advantage during 15-23(and it's pretty sizable for 15-17) in his alleged post-prime(3 all-time value regular seasons followed by hakeem-esque playoff elevation). With 5-year sets, Shaq generally is 3rd or 4th with duncan with kg and lebron consistently 1 and 2(also tracks with a raw impact approach)

The most winningest player of this era is Tim Duncan(big), the top 3 mvp candidates were Giannis, Embid, and Jokic(all-bigs), and the two players to win titles with the least help in the last 10 years are Lebron(2016, was basically a big-man vs Steph's Warriors) and Giannis(2022, big). The most valuable playoff players currently are probably Jokic(big) and AD(big).

As mentioned before, historically bigs have mantained their value the best, players who can protect the paint stack better than wing scorers, two-way bigs see the biggest drop offs, and two-way bigs replicate that "impact" the most consistently with Lebron being the only non-big really up at the top-tier in terms of peak signals, consistency, or replication(russ and kareem are the other two).

What has made you go lower on bigs? And if you're lower on bigs, how do you explain all of the above. Steph doesn't really look all that close once we make adjustments(and he happens to play with an impact-topping big)

[OhayoKD]

I'd say you should really primarily look at seasons from '15 to now to compare '15 to now, but maybe I'm old-fashioned.

Is this in reference to my post? The vast majority of it specifically looks at 15-17(I put the wrong graph somewhere, but i replaced it with one focusing on 15-17 data). I open with "career" stuff because the post i originally responded to brought up career on/off

[ceiling raiser]

What lead you to pushing up Lebron as your GOAT? I think you had Bill Russell #1 for a time if I am correct?

My criteria has always been performance in today’s league. What Russell did was incredible, but I don’t think he would be able to have the same impact in the 2023 NBA.

LeBron has more top 5 seasons than anybody in NBA history. I don’t think there’s a realistic case having him below #1 at this point.

I mean this just begs more questions. Whether you go by adjusted stuff, net, or wowy/indirect(scroll up a couple of posts to see, the most valuable players are Lebron(a wing who can emulate like a big). KG(big), Duncan(big) and if you apply a lower minutes filter Draymond(the big who played with Steph). Those first three players have a gigantic minutes advantage over Steph and the first on the list mantains that advantage during 15-23(and it's pretty sizable for 15-17) in his alleged post-prime(3 all-time value regular seasons followed by hakeem-esque playoff elevation). With 5-year sets, Shaq generally is 3rd or 4th with duncan with kg and lebron consistently 1 and 2(also tracks with a raw impact approach)

The most winningest player of this era is Tim Duncan(big), the top 3 mvp candidates were Giannis, Embid, and Jokic(all-bigs), and the two players to win titles with the least help in the last 10 years are Lebron(2016, was basically a big-man vs Steph's Warriors) and Giannis(2022, big). The most valuable playoff players currently are probably Jokic(big) and AD(big).

As mentioned before, historically bigs have mantained their value the best, players who can protect the paint stack better than wing scorers, two-way bigs see the biggest drop offs, and two-way bigs replicate that "impact" the most consistently with Lebron being the only non-big really up at the top-tier in terms of peak signals, consistency, or replication(russ and kareem are the other two).

What has made you go lower on bigs? And if you're lower on bigs, how do you explain all of the above. Steph doesn't really look all that close once we make adjustments(and he happens to play with an impact-topping big)

To be clear, not lower on all bigs. Just on Russell (portability to 2023 NBA - I think he worked well through say the Heat/Spurs era), Wilt (half court scoring), Shaq (see below), Hakeem (passing plus not incredibly scoring) for different reasons. I’m actually higher on Kareem than I used to be. Any position can have an elite player — I’m just not convinced of a big who isn’t a dominant passer and/or defender, unless they’re an outlier scorer. Shaq was, but I have dropped him a bit because of concerns of his defense. I’m higher on Dirk recently for a similar reason.

KG is tough. Easily top ten but the top five is crowded. I can see it some days.

[ceiling raiser]

I really miss the old fpliii who was fun, logical, and someone I wanted to have a beer with.

I’ve said very recently I have LeBron as my GOAT, mostly on the basis of his career in Cleveland (first stint) and Miami, and given how long he’s been a top 5 player. Doesn’t mean I have to think he’s better post-peak than peak Curry, who I have as a borderline top five player all-time.

I don't see 2016-2018 LeBron as post-peak LeBron and I think LeBron was considerably better than him in 2016-2018 that's why your list took my be surprise.

If you genuinely feel that way, then it's fine. Just wasn't sure if this was the real you or you just messing around.

One thing about me that’s an issue with my player evaluation - I think the newest thing is the best, and that the league is evolving in single direction toward idealized basketball.

I don’t prejudice older players out of hand, but Russell for me the last 3 or so years especially is just in a rough situation if you want MVP-plus level impact.

I am still enamored with Curry, but I the second a new shiny toy comes around I’ll move on. I have warmed up a bit to Jokic who seems to be an evolutionary Walton (worse defense).

[ceiling raiser]

Not to triple post, but my current top 10 (more of a who would I draft in todays league rather than “greatest”):

LeBron
Jordan
Duncan
Kareem
Magic
Curry
Garnett
Shaq
Bird
Dirk/Hakeem

[Jaivl]

LeBron
Curry
Giannis

are my pretty clear top 3 from 2015 to 2022*. Pretty clear order, too.

*nothing's really gonna change including 2023.

[McBubbles]

Consider it this way:

LeBron basically took the RS off, and in the Finals gave the Warriors less of a fight than any of their 3 West playoff opponents - each of whom had a better SRS than the Cavs.

So if you're giving LeBron the award for 2018, you're largely doing it on the basis of what he did in the Eastern playoffs where his team barely beat a young Boston team that wouldn't have a prayer against Boston last year or this year.

And I would suggest that there's probably no way you're doing this if you aren't already convinced that LeBron has the title belt for best player in the world going into the season, which is an approach I'm not comfortable with.

LeBron played 82 games in 2018 and posted 27/8/9 with a roster that was messed up due to Kyrie Irving requesting out.

We all know this wasn't LeBron's fault, given the history Kyrie has shown since then.

I have a hard time seeing the argument for "LeBron basically took the RS off".

Did you not see game 1? How did LeBron not give the Warriors a fight? Oh, you mean the pathetic roster of Cleveland didn't give them a fight?

Okay, so some thing to take note of:

1. While the logic of "He had no Kyrie, so he had nobody!" seems to make sense superficially, the reality is that the Cavs did BETTER without LeBron in '17-18 than they did in '14-15, '15-16 or '16-17 - LeBron's 3 years with Kyrie.

The team got worse because of their LeBron minutes. The prior 3 years when LeBron was on the floor, they had the +/- of a title contender. In '17-18 that dropped down to +1.4, he had his worst On/Off of his entire career, and he didn't lead his team in +/- for the first time since '10-11.

This is not anything that can be explained by the loss of Kyrie directly.

2. I think we have to remember that LeBron pulled one of his "I'm done with these role players, get me a new team ASAP or else" moves. If my count is correct, the Cavs ended up trading 6 of their players and multiple draft picks away before the deadline to please LeBron.

If we divide that Cavs RS into 3 chunks, it looks like this:

23-8
7-12
20-10

So this wasn't a situation where the team was left utterly lost from the start of the year but LeBron scrapped them together and they made the playoffs. They started off for nearly half the season playing at a #1 seed pace (for the East), and only then did the wheels come off...only to be put back on again after the team did what LeBron wanted, trading half the team and those future assets.

What did they get for capitulating? A re-engaged LeBron and another finals appearance.
What would they have gotten if LeBron just kept playing hard with a good attitude all year? Probably a finals appearance, and a better set of assets in the years beyond after LeBron kicked the franchise to the curb.

3. How can he coast when putting up 27/8/9? The same way Doncic can put up 40/10/10 and not really lift his team all that much. These heliocentric guys rack up numbers like crazy even when they aren't playing their best, and of course this is particularly true on defense, where in '17-18 the Cavs were ranked 29th in DRtg, and had a considerably worse rating than that when LeBron was on the floor.

4. Did I not see Game 1 of the Finals? I did, and I also know that after giving the Warriors one good fight LeBron went and punched the wall because he was a mad at a teammate making a mistake and ended up breaking his hand, and essentially handing the rest of the series to the Warriors without challenge.

A Warriors' team that was full of negative KD energy that hadn't swept anyone in the playoffs to that point and was pushed to the brink in the previous round, nearly losing, and expending everything to win in 7. Simply put, this was not a team that should have won the Finals in a sweep, and had LeBron in the Cavs put up a stubborn fight extending the series, I'd see what they did as more of an accomplishment than I do.

The reality is that this in the end was a Cavs team that did better without LeBron than prior incarnations and with him amounted to 1st round West fodder in the playoffs, which also was forced to rip apart their team and their assets to please a superstar who then left them with that mess at year's end.

I completely understand seeing LeBron as still the most capable basketball player in the world and pointing to Game 1 as proof of that capability, but in terms of what he accomplished for his team that year, the best I can say is that I'd consider him the top player in the East.

Not gonna address off the court issues, only the bolded.

1. I don't put much stock into the defence being ranked 29th on account of the Cavs having the worst defence in NBA history (at that point) the following year. Also a large bulk of your argument seems to be that the 2018 Cavs supporting cast is actually better than the 2017 Cavs and maybe even previous supporting cast, which I highly doubt. I typically hate when people ignore useful stats on favour of eye test but I saw nothing that suggested that sans Lebron's the 2018 Cavs are a better playoff team with better Championship odds than their predecessors. Their core was the same as the previous years but just worse (especially on defence) and Kyrie-less. Jr Smith, Thompson and Korver regressed massively whilst regular season improvements like Clarkson were disastrous in the playoffs. They might have for a single season, performed better, but they weren't better.

2. "The reality is that this in the end was a Cavs team that did better without LeBron than prior incarnations and with him amounted to 1st round West fodder in the playoffs".

Again this is a very very oddly constructed statement. The 18 Cavs doing better without Lebron than previous teams doesn't mean much of anything, cuz the previous Cavs are sucked without Lebron. A 2/10 is better than a 1/10, but still trash. Hell they sucked WITH Lebron let alone without him. And again the implication is that Lebron's supporting cast improved but his team results didn't, therefore Lebron made his team worse, which is ridiculous because in reality his supporting cast clearly got worse from the years before, a single season worth of on-off data doesn't change that. So it's not even a 2/10 being better than a 1/10, it's a 0/10 temporarily performing like a 2/10 against worse competition.

Then you say that the 2018 Cavs shouldn't have gotten swept by the 2018 Warriors because this Warriors team was underachieving, evidence for this being that they didn't sweep everyone for second year in a row , and then got pushed to a game 7 by one of the best teams in NBA history? Wat??? The Warriors went from a 10/10 to a 9/10. Why would the Warriors going from a 10/10 to a 9/10 mean that Lebron taking a game from them with his 2/10 supporting cast is something that should have happened?

+/- showing that the 2018 Cavs performed better without Lebron in a season Lebron missed zero games with the smallest sample size up to that point than the other Cavs teams doesn't mean much, they still sucked, especially compared to the 2018 Warriors and compared to all the competition the 2018 Warriors faced. That's like me going from not being able to defeat a tank with a sword, to me still not being able to defeat a tank with a bigger sword, and then saying I underachieved, as if that negligible improvement should have been enough to overcome the odds. This is also after seeing that tank blow up another tank. Lebron's supporting cast was so ass that they barely got out of the first round of the Eastern Conference WITH him whilst Curry's supporting cast was so incredible that they likely could have won the Finals without him, and we're talking about "Lebron shouldn't have gotten swept cuz the 2018 Warriors were worse and cuz +/- suggests the 2018 Cavs should have actually been better than the 15-17 Cavs", what?

+ Once again isn't this a Curry comparison? Lebron lost a game in which he put up a 51 point near triple double and Curry won a game whilst getting hunted on defence and putting up 11 points on 31.0TS%. Curry missing 31 more games than Lebron, an entire round of the playoffs and having, when taking into account the degree of difficulty, one of the worst games in Finals history = better than Lebron that year?

Curry in 2018 played 66 games compared to Lebron's 104, meaning Lebron played an extra 58% of the season lmao. So Curry playing MUCH fewer games, less minutes a game, whilst on one of the most stacked teams of all time, and with much less responsibility looked better than Lebron? Ok ? Am I supposed to take that at face value? I can't think of a player who would come out looking worse than Lebron in those comparable circumstances.