Historically how bad is Embiids playoff decline among superstar players?

[ty 4191]

His individual dropoff reminds me a lot of some of Wilt and David Robinsons dropoffs.

Much of Wilt's playoff decline was because half of those games he was going against Russell.

Exactly.

Wilt faced the best defenses, overall, in NBA history in the playoffs:

Hi, I've been collecting stats for a while and I decided to make this post here. I separated some superstars offensive production in playoffs based on defense (RS ORtg) faced. Here are my (random) criteria:

Over +2.0 rDRtg - Bad Defense
From +2.0 to -2.0 rDRtg - Average Defense
From -2.0 to -4.0 rDRtg - Good Defense
From -4.0 to -7.0 rDRtg - Elite Defense
Below -7.0 rDRtg - All-Time Great Defense

I started with centers (my favorite position) and I haven't finished yet, but here are some results:

Here are cumulative PEAK stats against -4.0 rDRtg defenses or better[/b]

Centers

Bill Russell (11.0% of playoffs games): 42.8 mpg, 26.2 rpg, 3.8 apg, 16.4 ppg on 42.7% FG, 60.9% FT, 45.4% TS (-1.90 rTS%)

Wilt Chamberlain (52.50% of playoffs games): 47.5 mpg, 28.5 rpg, 4.3 apg, 28.1 ppg on 50.8% FG, 50.6% FT, 52.2% TS (+3.84 rTS%)

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (26.60% of playoffs games): 44.1 mpg, 15.9 rpg, 4.1 apg, 33.3 ppg on 54.5% FG, 72.2% FT, 56.9% TS (+5.28 rTS%)

Moses Malone (14.29% of playoffs games): 40.5 mpg, 13.7 rpg,2.1 apg, 1.9 tov, 27.0 ppg on 48.7% FG, 81.9% FT and 55.5% TS (+1.79% rTS)

Shaquille O'Neal (30.38% of playoffs games): 41.1 mpg, 13.3 rpg, 2.9 apg, 3.3 tov, 26.9 ppg on 55.8% FG, 53.5% FT and 56.9% TS (+4.59% rTS)

Hakeem Olajuwon (15.45% of playoffs games): 42.0 mpg, 10.2 rpg, 3.1 apg, 3.4 tov, 24.1 ppg on 48.9% FG, 75.2% FT and 53.9% TS (+0.30% rTS)

David Robinson (0.00% of playoffs games):--

Artis Gilmore (5.13% of playoffs games): 45.3 mpg, 18.8 rpg, 3.5 apg, 3.5 tov, 15.3 ppg on 44.3% FG, 36.8% FT and 44.0% TS (-6.93% rTS)

Patrick Ewing (21.70% of playoffs games): 40.7 mpg, 11.3 rpg, 1.7 apg, 3.0 tov, 22.9 ppg on 43.7% FG, 80.0% FT and 49.0% TS (-4.48% rTS)[/spoiler]

Tell me what you think about it. I expect good discussion

Also, this, more objective proof:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PBH_Sb6IywvCQ8LDLtka4jOzuLdYRKIsvrjIyN67knM/edit#gid=96002192

(See "Career Rankings" Tab)

And finally, this:

Using 70s Fan's Exact Criteria, here we go:

Wilt, Entire Career, Playoffs:

Vs. Bad Defenses (15 games, 9.4% of total games):
47.6 mpg 26.5 ppg 22.2 rbg 7.5 ast/g 54.6 TS% 5.9 rTS%

Vs. Average Defenses (47 games, 29.4% of total games):
47.4 mpg 22.8 ppg 23.5 rbg 3.8 ast/g 54.5% TS% 5.2 rTS%

Vs. Good Defenses (26 games, 16.3% of total games):
47.1 mpg 18.6 ppg 24.7 rbg 4 ast/g 53.1 TS%. 4.9 rTS%

Vs. Elite Defenses (53 games, 33.1% of total games):
46.9 mpg 18.9 ppg 24.6 rbg 4.1 ast/g 50.7 TS% 2.1 tTS%

Vs. All Time Great Defenses (19 games, 11.9% of total games):
47.5 mpg 31 ppg 28.6 rbg 2.9 ast/g 53.3 TS 5.5 rTS%

45% of his career games were against Elite or All Time Great defenses. That's staggering; I'd be good money he's at the top, percentage wise, career, among all 25 players 70's Fan sampled!!

Greatest playoff defenses faced, career.

(Speaking of which...KAJ is up next! )

Kareem, Entire Career, Playoffs:

Vs. Bad Defenses (24 games, 9.7% of total games):
32 mpg. 20.8 ppg. 6.5 rbg 2.7 ast. 63 TS% 8.7 rTS%

Vs. Average Defenses (114 games, 48.1% of total games):
35.8 mpg. 23.9 ppg 10.4 rbg 3.1 ast. 59.6 TS% 6.9 rTS%

Vs. Good Defenses (67 games, 28.3% of total games):
38.4 mpg 22 ppg 10.2 rbg 3.6 ast 52.6 TS% 0.7 rTS%

Vs. Elite Defenses (33 games, 13.9% of total games):
42.1 mpg. 29.4 ppg 14.2 rbg 3.8 ast 56 TS% 4.8 tTS%

Vs. All Time Great Defenses (0 games, 0% of total games):
------

Lebron, Entire Career, Playoffs:

Vs. Bad Defenses (8.96% of total games):
40.4 mpg, 28.8/9.4/7.4 (rTS%: 5.9%)

Vs. Average Defenses (45.81% of total games):
40.4 mpg, 28.8/9.3/7.4 (rTS%: 5.1%)

Vs. Good Defenses (23.22% of total games):
43.6 mpg, 26.7/8.9/7.5 (rTS% 1.5%)

Vs. Elite Defenses (16.44% of total games):
42.6 mpg, 26.8/8.4/6.9 (rTS% -3.15%)

Vs. All Time Great Defenses (5.58% of total games):
42.0 mpg, 25.8/7.1/6.0 (rTS% 0.64)

Wilt vs. Elite + All Time Great Defenses:
45% of total playoff games played
47.2 MPG
25.0 PPG
26.6 RBG
3.5 AST/G
rTS%: +3.8%

Lebron vs. Elite + All Time Great Defenses:
22.1% of total playoff games played
42.3 MPG
26.3 PGG
7.8 RBG
rTS%: -1.3%

Kareem vs. Elite + All Time Great Defenses:
13.9% of total playoff games played
42.1 MPG
29.4 PPG
14.2 RBG
3.8 AST/G
rTS%: +4.8%

[FuShengTHEGreat]

Exactly.

Wilt faced the best defenses, overall, in NBA history in the playoffs:

Wilt faced overmatched teams in the playoffs in his career as well. Why isn't there the pity for the 67 warriors or 72 Knicks?

Oh of course not.

And he and his teams should've laid Boston to the sword in 68 & 69 with him having the talent alongside him to do so.

51% FT in the regular & and come playoff time only 46%. That doesn't have one iota to do with whatever team or defense Wilt was facing.....that was entirely 100% on Wilt.

Basically with Wilt and his abysmal FT shooting you were stuck with instances more often than not like Giannis in the 4th quarter of close games of the past the Miami series.

[70sFan]

Exactly.

Wilt faced the best defenses, overall, in NBA history in the playoffs:

Wilt faced overmatched teams in the playoffs in his career as well. Why isn't there the pity for the 67 warriors or 72 Knicks?

Oh of course not.

And he and his teams should've laid Boston to the sword in 68 & 69 with him having the talent alongside him to do so.

51% FT in the regular & and come playoff time only 46%. That doesn't have one iota to do with whatever team or defense Wilt was facing.....that was entirely 100% on Wilt.

Basically with Wilt and his abysmal FT shooting you were stuck with instances more often than not like Giannis in the 4th quarter of close games of the past the Miami series.

You really like this crusade, do you?

[ty 4191]

You really like this crusade, do you?

Don't even bother, man. He totally ignores/dismisses dozens of hours of our empirical research. Totally ignorant and superficial take from him.

[coastalmarker99]

Wilt played great in 1968 considering the amount of pain that he would have been in.

Wilt Chamberlain (tear of the calf muscle in his right leg, a strain in his right thigh and an injured right toe):

When Boston thumped the 76ers in the opening game of their playoffs here last Friday, some predicted a quick knockout of the injury-riddled champs.

But Philadelphia whacked Boston two straight, including Thursday where an injury actually helped the 76ers cause, points out Pollack.

How so?

"Well, Chamberlain was hurt and he couldn't turn around to score-so he kept feeding Greer, and he scored 31," explained the statistician.


So here was Chamberlain, playing every minute of a seven-game series, with multiple injuries, including the same exact injury that rendered Willis Reed a useless statue in the last three games of the '70 Finals...

hanging a 22-25-7 game series over Bill russell.

In fact, Russell commented later after the series had ended that a "Lessor man would not have played"...which of course meant no one else would have been playing.

[coastalmarker99]

In '68 Chamberlain was at his best - better than the season before

He had terrific confidence around him.



But no team wins a playoff series with serious injuries to 4 starters and their 6th man out.

That was one of the saddest playoffs in history, watching the Sixers explode with injuries, one after the other.


You didn't see the pure pain on Wilt's face while he was playing.

It's ludicrous to call that a choke job.


1969 I won't defend.

He choked in that series as he didn't show up in three out of the seven games in those finals.

[ty 4191]

Wilt played great in 1968 considering the amount of pain that he would have been in.

Wilt Chamberlain (tear of the calf muscle in his right leg, a strain in his right thigh and an injured right toe):

When Boston thumped the 76ers in the opening game of their playoffs here last Friday, some predicted a quick knockout of the injury-riddled champs.

But Philadelphia whacked Boston two straight, including Thursday where an injury actually helped the 76ers cause, points out Pollack.

How so?

"Well, Chamberlain was hurt and he couldn't turn around to score-so he kept feeding Greer, and he scored 31," explained the statistician.


So here was Chamberlain, playing every minute of a seven-game series, with multiple injuries, including the same exact injury that rendered Willis Reed a useless statue in the last three games of the '70 Finals...

hanging a 22-25-7 game series over Bill russell.

In fact, Russell commented later after the series had ended that a "Lessor man would not have played"...which of course meant no one else would have been playing.

Yeah, but look who you're arguing with. You think he cares about historical context?

[FuShengTHEGreat]

Exactly.

Wilt faced the best defenses, overall, in NBA history in the playoffs:

Wilt faced overmatched teams in the playoffs in his career as well. Why isn't there the pity for the 67 warriors or 72 Knicks?

Oh of course not.

And he and his teams should've laid Boston to the sword in 68 & 69 with him having the talent alongside him to do so.

51% FT in the regular & and come playoff time only 46%. That doesn't have one iota to do with whatever team or defense Wilt was facing.....that was entirely 100% on Wilt.

Basically with Wilt and his abysmal FT shooting you were stuck with instances more often than not like Giannis in the 4th quarter of close games of the past the Miami series.

You really like this crusade, do you?

Geez I was indirectly added in a quote....I'm not allowed to respond?

[ty 4191]

Geez I was indirectly added in a quote....I'm not allowed to respond?

You're a Wilt hater/basher.

E.g., I posted that Wilt faced the best defenses in NBA history in his career. Both for his prime (1960-1968) and his entire career. That is irrefutable. I took the time to post everything, which took dozens of hours to compile, and you completely ignored and dismissed all of it.

[70sFan]

Wilt faced overmatched teams in the playoffs in his career as well. Why isn't there the pity for the 67 warriors or 72 Knicks?

Oh of course not.

And he and his teams should've laid Boston to the sword in 68 & 69 with him having the talent alongside him to do so.

51% FT in the regular & and come playoff time only 46%. That doesn't have one iota to do with whatever team or defense Wilt was facing.....that was entirely 100% on Wilt.

Basically with Wilt and his abysmal FT shooting you were stuck with instances more often than not like Giannis in the 4th quarter of close games of the past the Miami series.

You really like this crusade, do you?

Geez I was indirectly added in a quote....I'm not allowed to respond?

I can't allow or disallow you anything. Note that it's not ty who started Wilt discussion in Embiid thread, but you.

[FuShengTHEGreat]

You really like this crusade, do you?

Geez I was indirectly added in a quote....I'm not allowed to respond?

I can't allow or disallow you anything. Note that it's not ty who started Wilt discussion in Embiid thread, but you.

Sigh...my response is pertinent to the OP's original question. I mentioned David Robinson in addition to Wilt Chamberlain. It was not a "Wilt discussion" or him singled out exclusively.

It's quite amusing i praised Wilt here for being the GOAT rebounding C and alongside Shaq as a finisher and that is skipped over in my "crusade" and "hate" of him.

As i think historically its only fair to compare to players at the same position when analyzing i have Embiid, Robinson & Chamberlain in the same category as those who don't translate well come playoff time.

[ty 4191]

As i think historically its only fair to compare to players at the same position when analyzing i have Embiid, Robinson & Chamberlain in the same category as those who don't translate well come playoff time.

Did you read anything posted about Wilt facing, by far, the greatest defenses in history, in his prime, and, overall?

[FuShengTHEGreat]

In '68 Chamberlain was at his best - better than the season before

He had terrific confidence around him.



But no team wins a playoff series with serious injuries to 4 starters and their 6th man out.

That was one of the saddest playoffs in history, watching the Sixers explode with injuries, one after the other.


You didn't see the pure pain on Wilt's face while he was playing.

It's ludicrous to call that a choke job.


1969 I won't defend.

Puhleeze.....they were good and healthy enough to be up 3-1. Part of the pain on Wilt's part probably had something to do with his FT shooting.

So this guy was healthy to have monster rebound games 6 and 7....but was so hurt he couldn't make a uncontested FT. And before anybody dares to falsely claim injuries caused that to happen, he was awful in the playoffs from there even when he won Finals MVP and the 2 years after that

Greer was hurting and shot poorly in game 7 but at least he tried scoring unlike passive Wilt who was roundly criticized for barely attempting a shot.

Then what does Wilt do after that loss?

Refuses to play another game with a stacked cast of HOF guys that went 54-28 without him the following season.

Current Embiid getting heavily criticized in the media today and pre-TD David Robinson that i mentioned in this thread would've thanked their lucky stars for that same cast that whiny crybaby Wilt left hanging dry.

[FuShengTHEGreat]

As i think historically its only fair to compare to players at the same position when analyzing i have Embiid, Robinson & Chamberlain in the same category as those who don't translate well come playoff time.

Did you read anything posted about Wilt facing, by far, the greatest defenses in history, in his prime, and, overall?

Imagine compiling a list including Ewing, Robinson & Olajuwon who spent large chunks of their prime starved of help.....especially compared to Wilt who had a who's who of 60s/70s HOF talent and bringing up defenses faced as if it was he alone going it against some army....lol.

I already posted Wilts playoff shrinkage in series vs Syracuse in both 61 and 62. He wasn't even all that impressive vs overmatched SF in the 67 Finals as far as I'm concerned. Go look at how awful he was from the FT line that series.

One year of his prime he was leading his team to a dreadful 31-49 record (what other prime elite HOF C missing 0 significant time ever led a team to such a awful record?) so that 60-68 period you posted of prime Wilts playoff stats needs a year reduced given he wasn't there in 63 Had he not gotten traded to Philly it'd have been another empty prime season for Wilt. 11-27 start despite being 1 half of the first Twin Tower duo in history with Nate Thurmond.

And he and his teams should've laid Boston to the sword in 68 & 69....so no it wasn't always him vs juggernaut Boston. His team were favorites and didn't get it done with him underpeforming.

He was right there alongside Embiid and Robinson as a playoff performer imho. Except scoring prime or even post 65-66 he had FAR more talent overall than either of them did.

[Chronz]

The 67 season is valid but he was facing quite possibly the goat post defender, what nate did to Wilt was nothing compared to what he did to kaj a few years later when he was honestly less of a force by then. And he faced russ before that finals. So yes, not much resiliency but the defensive gauntlet and winning the chip makes it understandable.

That high scoring season was the one I was referring to tho. If you give me some time, I'll rummage up the old newspaper clippings where they speak about his role change and the theory about why they did it.

To put it short, they basically pulled what Phil Jackson pulled with Kobe in that 7 game series against the Suns. Kobe most prolific scoring season was rather pedestrian come post season, not due to the defense but the role. Whether it was a good idea or not, they did push the higher seeded suns to the brink of elimination. Wilts coaching staff was trying to do something similar, iirc it was hannum but I'll check later

Oh please....Nate or no Nate, Wilt still had a ridiculously stacked cast in the 67 Finals to offset that. His starting 5 cast is as great as any NBA Finals MVP has ever had.

What excuse is there for Wilt shooting 30% FT from the line for the series....That was Nate too? .

Its funny how no one says how overmatched the 67 Warriors were and no sympathy for them, but everyone brings up losing to Russell/Boston.

As for the high scoring 61-62 season. Decline even in the first round vs Syracuse as well even before Boston so it wasn't solely vs them this happened against.

Embiid is roughly in the same tier as Robinson/Chamberlain as a high volume go to scorer in the playoffs performance wise imho. But at least the book isn't closed Embiids on career yet.

He did offset it, it's why his team won. Still doesn't change the influence of the goat post defender.

They implemented the strategy from the start of the playoffs iirc. Seriously, the coach talks about it and Wilt having mixed feelings