2023 NBA Draft Thread

[SWedd523]

3pt shooting tends to be quite a bit easier to make substantial improvements on than ball handling fwiw.

While I don't necessarily disagree with you, I'd like to see some data to back that claim up.

[JMAC3]

Just not seeing how a guy with a awkward low dip jump shot, mid athletics, and questionable handles is considered right up there with a PG that many are calling generational.

I'm doing my best to fall for Miller as he is likely our guy, but damn this is tough.

Do you think Paul George, Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler were just elite handles and playmakers in college but somehow slid outside the top 10?

Is that your argument from why we should take Miller at 2? Odd to point to other guys that didn't have these skills being drafted lower as evidence that we should draft Miller higher.

Would guess the stockpile of guys that didn't have these skills and never got them is going to be a lot higher.

Yeah, you are probably right, but were they SEC Player of the year as Freshman and projected top 2 picks? Why are we acting like we just expect this guy to be awful and not improve? Is this my argument? No. Obviously I have said 100 things in these threads, I don't feel the need to repost everything every single time.

Just pointing out that Paul George and Kawhi weren't Kevin Durant level and snatch crossing dudes ankles and dropping 30 in college with ease. In fact PG averaged like 7 points his rookie year, Miller is probably further along then PG was at this age. Probably the same for Kawhi who also averaged 8 ppg as a rookie. Why is the expectation that Miller needs to be as good as they were in their prime from day 1 to be worthy of the pick? He is 6-9 with a 7-1 wingspan and has deep range and shoots stepback threes off the dribble. Is that just what all 6-9 guys do? Why are we acting like this is just casual and not impressive.

[yosemiteben]

Do you think Paul George, Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler were just elite handles and playmakers in college but somehow slid outside the top 10?

Is that your argument from why we should take Miller at 2? Odd to point to other guys that didn't have these skills being drafted lower as evidence that we should draft Miller higher.

Would guess the stockpile of guys that didn't have these skills and never got them is going to be a lot higher.

Yeah, you are probably right, but were they SEC Player of the year as Freshman and projected top 2 picks? Why are we acting like we just expect this guy to be awful and not improve? Is this my argument? No. Obviously I have said 100 things in these threads, I don't feel the need to repost everything every single time.

Just pointing out that Paul George and Kawhi weren't Kevin Durant level and snatch crossing dudes ankles and dropping 30 in college with ease. In fact PG averaged like 7 points his rookie year, Miller is probably further along then PG was at this age. Probably the same for Kawhi who also averaged 8 ppg as a rookie. Why is the expectation that Miller needs to be as good as they were in their prime from day 1 to be worthy of the pick? He is 6-9 with a 7-1 wingspan and has deep range and shoots stepback threes off the dribble. Is that just what all 6-9 guys do? Why are we acting like this is just casual and not impressive.

My concern is he's just a specialist shooter, so miss me with that "can all 6'9" dudes shoot like that" nonsense.

It seems the juxtaposition with Scoot is both are currently lacking in skills that are necessary to justify taking them at 2 (or at least to be certain they'll return value justifying the pick). My current rationale is that Scoot has more impressive physical traits that make me think he is more likely to develop his skills. The major red flag for me with Miller is him being a below the rim guy with more limited athleticism. As much as trotting around PG and Kawhi as examples of how that can be developed, it seems like a much riskier bet to me.

To each his own. That's just where I am.

[yosemiteben]

3pt shooting tends to be quite a bit easier to make substantial improvements on than ball handling fwiw.

While I don't necessarily disagree with you, I'd like to see some data to back that claim up.

Me too, though I'm not sure how you'd be able to statistically show improved handles as a wing player unless you're just relying on assist and turnover stats.

[LofJ]

The shooting discussion with regards to Scoot makes no rational sense at all. He is shooting from NBA distance, while Miller is shooting a foot and a half shorter. And the G-league only shoots one free throw, and it has been proven beyond a doubt that most players shoot 4-6 percentage points lower on their first free throw compared to their second. If Scoot played in the NCAA he would have shot 80% on his free throws (at 18/19 years old). Edit. No need for that.. Edit. Or that.

Take that into account and THE FACT that Scoot is training with Steph freaking Curry aEdit. Or that.

Yes, I'm calling you out JMac, your argument does NOT hold water. Come up with something else if you want to argue against Scoot. Yes, Miller is an elite shooting prospect, but Scoot does NOT project as a bad shooter. Any argument otherwise is not based on facts.

[KingCat]

We have seen plenty of these long wings come into the NBA and just straight up fail as well. For every Tatum, Wagner and Ingram there is a KZ Okpala, Josh Jackson and Jarret Culver. (Tempted to add Jabari Smith to the list but he deserves more time)

If we were a young team blossoming with more than one exceptional young talent and just on the edge of competing long term, then sure Miller is a good pick.

That isn't us tho. We have Melo, Mark, a wife beater, and a bunch of mediocrity. We are on zero place to draft for fit. We aren't a team like the Kings who could have afforded to draft Keegan Murray over Jaden Ivey

[SWedd523]

3pt shooting tends to be quite a bit easier to make substantial improvements on than ball handling fwiw.

While I don't necessarily disagree with you, I'd like to see some data to back that claim up.

Me too, though I'm not sure how you'd be able to statistically show improved handles as a wing player unless you're just relying on assist and turnover stats.

3P rate and percentage should be easy enough to track. The ball handling would be more advanced metric based, but I'm sure somebody has figured it out

[SWedd523]

The shooting discussion with regards to Scoot makes no rational sense at all.

Why doesn't it? I mean, he's not hitting them.

It's wild to me that we're just saying "eh, whatever" to his lack of shooting. It is a very legitimate issue and troubling how we've spent the majority of the past 2, 3, 5, 10? years complaining every night because the team can't shoot, yet the response to adding another poor shooter is just "not an issue".

Bouknight shot 43% from three in the G League.

Take that into account and THE FACT that Scoot is training with Steph freaking Curry and you should not be taken seriously if you continue to question his shooting.

I don't see why that matters. I could train with Steph, but that doesn't guarantee that I'll hit 40% of my threes.

Yes, I'm calling you out JMac, your argument does NOT hold water. Come up with something else if you want to argue against Scoot. Yes, Miller is an elite shooting prospect, but Scoot does NOT project as a bad shooter. Any argument otherwise is not based on facts.

The facts are that he doesn't shoot often, and when he does, he doesn't make many of them.

There is no FACTUAL way you can look at his numbers and say, concretely, that he'll be a good shooter. You can make inferences based on his form, improvement over the season, etc. But to completely dismiss the notion that he's not a good shooting prospect is somewhere between asinine and head-in-the-sand.


I say all of this as someone who probably has Scoot a little ahead of Miller right now. But holy ****, the defense mechanisms on behalf of some of these guys is getting unreal this early in the draft process guys. Can we all just take a collective breath?

[LofJ]

The point I'm trying to make is that Scoot as a near 80% free throw shooter as an 18/19 year old does NOT project as a bad shooter. He at the very least projects as a mediocre one.

[amcoolio]

I think Scoot will get to the point where he launches deep 3's. He knows he needs it. He already has the step back moves and pull up midrange. I think his other traits are too good to pass up. He's not in the Jaden Ivey tier of prospect, he's in the Morant tier.

[JDR720]

Shooting is the easiest skill to improve as long as you don't have MKG level broken form or no touch.

Reaves shot 30% his last season in college for a recent example.

[vexco]

We aren't a team like the Kings who could have afforded to draft Keegan Murray over Jaden Ivey

Nobody thought the Kings were in that position either.

[JMAC3]

%

The point I'm trying to make is that Scoot as a near 80% free throw shooter as an 18/19 year old does NOT project as a bad shooter. He at the very least projects as a mediocre one.

He is a 75% free throw shooter.

And if you look at the last two years in the gleague combined he shot 29% on 121 attempts.

Miller shot 38.4% on 276 attempts. I would be willing to bet Miller has made more NBA range threes over that time frame than Scoot and shot a better % on such attempts.

[JMAC3]

We have seen plenty of these long wings come into the NBA and just straight up fail as well. For every Tatum, Wagner and Ingram there is a KZ Okpala, Josh Jackson and Jarret Culver. (Tempted to add Jabari Smith to the list but he deserves more time)

If we were a young team blossoming with more than one exceptional young talent and just on the edge of competing long term, then sure Miller is a good pick.

That isn't us tho. We have Melo, Mark, a wife beater, and a bunch of mediocrity. We are on zero place to draft for fit. We aren't a team like the Kings who could have afforded to draft Keegan Murray over Jaden Ivey

Really going to use KZ Okpala a 2nd round pick to attempt to sell your point?
Jabari Smith was also a big man in college, anyone who thought he was going to be project as a wing in the NBA didn't watch him. He legit couldn't dribble nor create his own shot.

[JMAC3]

Watch on YouTube

;t=336s

Anyone who watches this video and then claims they worry if he can be an offensive creator needs to rethink how they watch basketball.
Dude is flashing hezis, crossovers, shaking Anthony Black, throwing one hand passes to the big, hitting the corners off high pick and roll, making smart transition lead passes...... He is flashing all the high level skills you want to see out of a premier wing in the NBA.

[KingCat]

Watch on YouTube

;t=336s

Anyone who watches this video and then claims they worry if he can be an offensive creator needs to rethink how they watch basketball.
Dude is flashing hezis, crossovers, shaking Anthony Black, throwing one hand passes to the big, hitting the corners off high pick and roll, making smart transition lead passes...... He is flashing all the high level skills you want to see out of a premier wing in the NBA.

Believe it or not, it is harder to score vs professionals than college kids. He struggles to create distance vs college athletes thanks to his poor first step. If that doesnt concern you, then nothing about him will. He isn't at all the athlete that guys like PG13 or Tatum are.

[Ozymandias]

We have seen plenty of these long wings come into the NBA and just straight up fail as well. For every Tatum, Wagner and Ingram there is a KZ Okpala, Josh Jackson and Jarret Culver. (Tempted to add Jabari Smith to the list but he deserves more time)

If we were a young team blossoming with more than one exceptional young talent and just on the edge of competing long term, then sure Miller is a good pick.

That isn't us tho. We have Melo, Mark, a wife beater, and a bunch of mediocrity. We are on zero place to draft for fit. We aren't a team like the Kings who could have afforded to draft Keegan Murray over Jaden Ivey

Really going to use KZ Okpala a 2nd round pick to attempt to sell your point?
Jabari Smith was also a big man in college, anyone who thought he was going to be project as a wing in the NBA didn't watch him. He legit couldn't dribble nor create his own shot.

The Josh Jackson and Jarrett Culver comparisons are also puzzling. Both of their predraft scouting reports read entirely different to Miller's. Neither profiled as elite shooters. In fact, jump shooting was the biggest question mark Josh Jackson had when he came into the league. Jarrett Culver was a guy that profiled adequate at everything, but possessed no elite skill. They play the same position as Miller and that's where the comparison ends.

[KingCat]

We have seen plenty of these long wings come into the NBA and just straight up fail as well. For every Tatum, Wagner and Ingram there is a KZ Okpala, Josh Jackson and Jarret Culver. (Tempted to add Jabari Smith to the list but he deserves more time)

If we were a young team blossoming with more than one exceptional young talent and just on the edge of competing long term, then sure Miller is a good pick.

That isn't us tho. We have Melo, Mark, a wife beater, and a bunch of mediocrity. We are on zero place to draft for fit. We aren't a team like the Kings who could have afforded to draft Keegan Murray over Jaden Ivey

Really going to use KZ Okpala a 2nd round pick to attempt to sell your point?
Jabari Smith was also a big man in college, anyone who thought he was going to be project as a wing in the NBA didn't watch him. He legit couldn't dribble nor create his own shot.

The Josh Jackson and Jarrett Culver comparisons are also puzzling. Both of their predraft scouting reports read entirely different to Miller's. Neither profiled as elite shooters. In fact, jump shooting was the biggest question mark Josh Jackson had when he came into the league. Jarrett Culver was a guy that profiled adequate at everything, but possessed no elite skill. They play the same position as Miller and that's where the comparison ends.

https://nbadraftroom.com/jarett-culver/

"Has an overall great feel for the game and plays both ends.
An elite level shooter who can knock down shots from anywhere on the floor and is very efficient. Scores from three levels and has a pure stroke.
A crafty ball handler and play maker who moves the ball well after collapsing the defense with the dribble. He’s a really high level passer.
Has a soft touch around the rim and a natural feel for putting the ball in the bucket.
Knows how to move without the ball to find space for his shot.
Can guard nearly every position and is a real menace in the passing lanes and on the ball.
Struggles from the FT line.
Has somewhat of a slow wind-up on his jumper (but the ball goes in the basket)."

Found this Culver report within a few seconds. A lot of similarities to what we are hearing for Miller. A lot of these skills that wing players display in college rarely translate to the NBA.

[Braggins]

Culver is 6'5" and shot 34% from 3pt and 69% from the line in college.

[JDR720]

The biggest red flag with Scoot is he is only 6'2 or so. If we didn't have Melo already, I wouldn't want us to take Scoot. It's really hard to win with your best player being a smaller PG. Especially one that isn't a great shooter.

However, Melo is well above average height so he and Scoot would probably be an average to slightly above average sized backcourt.

Miller has great shooting talent, but I think it's a bad idea to draft him that high because of potential off-court issues and his terrible tournament play.

If we want to draft for fit + great shooting, we should trade down and draft Grady Dick. Who is a better shooter than Miller and doesn't have baggage.