2023 Draft Discussion Part 5

[BoyzNTheHood]

You know who has a lot of dog in him? Jaime Jacquez Jr. Not at 13, but I wouldn’t mind adding a later pick to take him.

He always seems to step up in big games and hit huge shots. I remember last year a lot of people were riding with Juzang and that was cool, but Jacquez was the guy who stood out to me. I wonder if we can find his clutch stats because I’m willing to bet they’re pretty good.

[Yallbecrazy]

We need DOGS!!

Alright guys, who is the next Jimmy in this draft?

Where can we find crunch time stats for prospects, as well as stats versus the best competition, and matchups? That would be ideal.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/jimmy-butler-1.html

Look for a guy with a positive assist to turnover ratio so he has a good bbiq and a lot of offensive rebounds for his position. Drawing a lot of fouls helps too.

Anthony Black and Cissoko are the closest in terms of free throw rate, but even they lag well behind. Black also rebounds well, but not close to Jimmy...and his assist to turnover is positive, but he played the point so it's a little inflated and Jimmy didn't have nearly as many turnovers.

Cissoko doesn't rebound well.

Conclusion: there's only one Jimmy.
(Kyle Lowry and Marcus Smart also come to mind as guys with good passing, tons of offensive rebounds, and outlier free throw rate in college.)

[Yallbecrazy]

Those are the stats (+FT %) I value most when evaluating prospects. oRB for guards and wings, free throw rate, good passing /assists with few turnovers, steals+ blocks, and contested rim finishing %.

To a lesser extent I also value weight as strength is so important and foul rate (committed).

For Centres and PFs I have extra emphasis on assists, steals, fouls committed and standing reach.

[ATLTimekeeper]

I don't think that player is in the NCAA this year. You can appreciate him for what he is.

But, in general, targeting defense-DNA players gives you a baseline of competitiveness because those players don't 'break' as easily. That's not to say that some offense-only players aren't resilient (Steph), but they're always dominant college players.

[Kevin Willis]

We need DOGS!!

Alright guys, who is the next Jimmy in this draft?

VW. Not much else. VW doesn't play very nice, he talks and he stares people down.

[WuTang_CMB]

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[Zeno]

I hope that Leonard Miller is available at 13 but I think he’s going to be a late riser and go top 10.

[HumbleRen]

I hope that Leonard Miller is available at 13 but I think he’s going to be a late riser and go top 10.

I hope so, that means someone from the top 10 will fall out of it.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Those are the stats (+FT %) I value most when evaluating prospects. oRB for guards and wings, free throw rate, good passing /assists with few turnovers, steals+ blocks, and contested rim finishing %.

To a lesser extent I also value weight as strength is so important and foul rate (committed).

For Centres and PFs I have extra emphasis on assists, steals, fouls committed and standing reach.

Olivier Maxence-Prosper should be one of your favorite prospects then

[DG88]

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[gbball]

Alright guys, who is the next Jimmy in this draft?

Where can we find crunch time stats for prospects, as well as stats versus the best competition, and matchups? That would be ideal.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/jimmy-butler-1.html

Look for a guy with a positive assist to turnover ratio so he has a good bbiq and a lot of offensive rebounds for his position. Drawing a lot of fouls helps too.

Anthony Black and Cissoko are the closest in terms of free throw rate, but even they lag well behind. Black also rebounds well, but not close to Jimmy...and his assist to turnover is positive, but he played the point so it's a little inflated and Jimmy didn't have nearly as many turnovers.

Cissoko doesn't rebound well.

Conclusion: there's only one Jimmy.
(Kyle Lowry and Marcus Smart also come to mind as guys with good passing, tons of offensive rebounds, and outlier free throw rate in college.)

Rondo and Kawhi were interesting players too. I don't know if they had the same statistical profile, but I remember them as mystery box players who did things that didn't show as traditional skills and both were elite rebounders. It's like they found ways to impact the game in any way possible. Maybe that's a clue as to who is about winning period, the guys who are committed to doing the dirty work. That makes me sad we didn't find a way to keep Champagnie around since he had a good nose for the ball.

I think the assist to turnover ratio is interesting to look at because as you mentioned it speaks to good decision makers. Jamal Murray is another guy too. I could tell that he had it when I saw him in the Pan Am games. He raised his level when things got tight.

Guys currently on our team that have shown signs of raising their level in crunch time in college and g-league are Flynn and Harper jr. But we haven't really seen them in that position at the NBA level yet.

[Psubs]

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Damnit!!!! Now he's showing everything that I thought he was during the season. Cason should be the 2nd guard drafted after Scoot. He should be taken 5-9. No way Utah should let him slide past them at #9. Cason is better than Deron Williams who they drafted #3 (Chris Paul should've went to them or Charlotte at #2 lol)

[Psubs]

Those are the stats (+FT %) I value most when evaluating prospects. oRB for guards and wings, free throw rate, good passing /assists with few turnovers, steals+ blocks, and contested rim finishing %.

To a lesser extent I also value weight as strength is so important and foul rate (committed).

For Centres and PFs I have extra emphasis on assists, steals, fouls committed and standing reach.

Olivier Maxence-Prosper should be one of your favorite prospects then

This kid is like a lanky Kennth Faried!

[Psubs]

I hope that Leonard Miller is available at 13 but I think he’s going to be a late riser and go top 10.

I hope so, that means someone from the top 10 will fall out of it.

I hope things go like:

1. Wemby
2. Miller
3. Scoot
4. Amen
5. Hendricks
6. Dick
7. Whitmore
8. Jarace
9. Black
10. Ausar
11. Bilial
12. Leonard Miller
13. Raptors Pick.... Cason Wallace

It could happen. I could see all those players be drafted before Cason. Even someone might go for GG like TWac. Keyonte George and Bufkin may go before but shouldn't.

[Yallbecrazy]

Those are the stats (+FT %) I value most when evaluating prospects. oRB for guards and wings, free throw rate, good passing /assists with few turnovers, steals+ blocks, and contested rim finishing %.

To a lesser extent I also value weight as strength is so important and foul rate (committed).

For Centres and PFs I have extra emphasis on assists, steals, fouls committed and standing reach.

Olivier Maxence-Prosper should be one of your favorite prospects then

Very poor (red flag) passing and stocks suggest otherwise

[HumbleRen]

I hope that Leonard Miller is available at 13 but I think he’s going to be a late riser and go top 10.

I hope so, that means someone from the top 10 will fall out of it.

I hope things go like:

1. Wemby
2. Miller
3. Scoot
4. Amen
5. Hendricks
6. Dick
7. Whitmore
8. Jarace
9. Black
10. Ausar
11. Bilial
12. Leonard Miller
13. Raptors Pick.... Cason Wallace

It could happen. I could see all those players be drafted before Cason. Even someone might go for GG like TWac. Keyonte George and Bufkin may go before but shouldn't.

If everything goes according to plan (what i hope the FO pulls of)

We end up with Scoot or Miller and Bilal or Leonard Miller.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Those are the stats (+FT %) I value most when evaluating prospects. oRB for guards and wings, free throw rate, good passing /assists with few turnovers, steals+ blocks, and contested rim finishing %.

To a lesser extent I also value weight as strength is so important and foul rate (committed).

For Centres and PFs I have extra emphasis on assists, steals, fouls committed and standing reach.

Olivier Maxence-Prosper should be one of your favorite prospects then

Very poor (red flag) passing and stocks suggest otherwise

You're basically describing a superstar player, like "I want a guy who fills up the stat sheet in every way possible". Nothing like that is available this draft, every player is lacking in some regard. The first two stats you listed Prosper is great at over 2 oRBs per 36 and an insanely high ftR. That's a solid foundation for finding a gem.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Those are the stats (+FT %) I value most when evaluating prospects. oRB for guards and wings, free throw rate, good passing /assists with few turnovers, steals+ blocks, and contested rim finishing %.

To a lesser extent I also value weight as strength is so important and foul rate (committed).

For Centres and PFs I have extra emphasis on assists, steals, fouls committed and standing reach.

Olivier Maxence-Prosper should be one of your favorite prospects then

This kid is like a lanky Kennth Faried!

He is a very high energy player but doesn't play recklessly or out of control. Has to grow his game a lot but he has improved a ton every year and looks hungry as hell. His absolute floor might be an efficient energy wing off the bench but I think there's something more there and he looks 100% like an NBA player. This kid attacks the **** out of the bucket and his shot is improving. His ISO defense looks OK (very high effort defender) in the vid box and one just uploaded but I'm not really sure about his overall defensive upside. I'd take Prosper over a ton of other hyped up wings like Jett Howard.

[Yallbecrazy]

Olivier Maxence-Prosper should be one of your favorite prospects then

Very poor (red flag) passing and stocks suggest otherwise

You're basically describing a superstar player, like "I want a guy who fills up the stat sheet in every way possible". Nothing like that is available this draft, every player is lacking in some regard. The first two stats you listed Prosper is great at over 2 oRBs per 36 and an insanely high ftR. That's a solid foundation for finding a gem.

The assist rate is very poor, not just mediocre. The stocks and dBPM suggest a very poor defender. I understand you're not going to get a guy that is really good at all of them, I just don't want a guy that's really bad at some of them or as many that he is really good at. I value BBIQ a lot and he doesn't seem to have it.

[DG88]

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If Cason Wallace is available at 13 you have to take him.