JB7 wrote:While the score might be close, watching the game, it seemed like Florida and Toronto where on two different planets. Florida could pretty much do what they wanted. Same with Tampa. They just didn't have much luck against the Leafs (plus their D were all injured). While Toronto won the series, they only scored 2 more goals than Tampa.
I guess we have vastly different views on the Florida/Toronto series. I watched all the games and I never felt the Leafs being grossly outplayed in any of those games. They had good if not great scoring chances in most of those games and they were able to get into the Panther's zone and stay there easier than when they played Tampa. The difference in that series was Florida being more clutch, Bob playing great and coming up with timely saves and the Leafs making a few more mistakes than Florida did.
In the Tampa series in most games it seemed like the Lightning were outplaying the Leafs in most periods and it was hard for the Leafs to generate any offense and get decent shots on Vasi. The thing is they took advantage of what few chances they got and that was the difference between winning and losing to Tampa.
Look at the Canes/Florida series now. Watched every game so far and again I don't feel the Panthers are hugely outplaying the Canes and yet now they're up 3-0 against them because of 2 clutch overtime wins and the Panthers and Bob playing well and clutching out a 1-0 game. Sometimes you can have two teams playing pretty evenly and its just that one team wins by making a few less mistakes and/or being abit more clutch/lucky than the other team.
When a team has lost as much as the Leafs in the 1st round, eventually it is not about luck and more about the team.
Well for the Leafs I think some playoff series losses were them being outplayed, but definitely some of those other playoff series they were simply unlucky. 3 losses against the Panthers in OT is what I would call unlucky just as 3 OT wins against Tampa was luck going in favor of the Leafs.
Marner doesn't have a great shot, like a Nylander or Matthews. And since he is not as willing to go into the slot and take a beating to score (gritty goals), he is really not a player the Leafs can trust to score a big goal. At almost $11M, he needs to be a player they can trust to make the big play. And if that is just as him as a playmaker, then he needs a quality finisher beside him. Why pay two players, when you can pay just one. Focus the money on the players that have the most impact.
Marner has a decent shot and great moves. We've seen him score in close at the net so its not like he can't do it. Different players score in different ways and for a team to be successful you need to be able to score in a variety of different ways. Marner doesn't need to be the primary score when he's the primary playmaker. Again different players have different roles on the team and Marner is the guy who drives the play and sets up the shooter. If you can't get the puck to the shooter than the shooter isn't going to score.
Look at Brett Hull and Adam Oates one of the great all time duels in the NHL when they were playing together in St. Louis. Hull has his three best seasons of scoring when the two played together with 72, 86 and 70 goal seasons and when Oates was traded, Hull never reached those same heights again and he never scored more than 57 goals for the rest of his time in the NHL. Coincidence? Perhaps. Or maybe a great playmaker compliments a great goal scorer and vise versa.
Again, Matthews I think as way more value on the market, and could draw significant interest, in terms of young players/prospects and draft picks. Any team interested in signing him would probably like to have him for the year to try and convince him to sign.
Marner, it would all depend on what is offered. He is not worth just dumping. But if some team was willing to offer some talent back, I would move him. He is not worth $11M. Not on a Stanley Cup contender. So come contract time, if he is not willing to take a big paycut (down to ~$8M), I think they would have to let him walk.
I'd prefer to trade Matthews while his value is high. If he's asking for a major pay raise, definitely trade him before July 1st. Marner I would evaulate him for another season and then see how he does and what he's asking for on his next contract. I think its crazy to think he'll take a major pay cut and more realisticly if he only asks for a slight pay raise then maybe its worth keeping him and if he's asking for a major raise then move him out. With Tavares' contract ending at the same time at least the Leafs will have the cap space to re-sign Nylander and Marner and hopefully bring back Tavares at a steep discount if he wants to stay and still have some space left over.