Are there any players that came into the league already in their prime?

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Are there any players that came into the league already in their prime? 

Post#1 » by SHAQ32 » Fri May 26, 2023 5:28 pm

Jordan, Shaq, and David Robinson come to mind. If you agree, are there any others?
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Re: Are there any players that came into the league already in their prime? 

Post#2 » by LukaTheGOAT » Fri May 26, 2023 5:53 pm

There is the possibility that Kareem was the best player in the world before he got to the NBA. He clearly got better as time went on, but you could argue he was already in his prime from the get-go.

In Kareem's rookie year,

1970 Abdul-Jabbar RS had Inflation Adjusted per 75 averages of:

22.4 points (rTS% of +4.1%), along with 11.3 rebounds, and 3.2 assists.

The Bucks had a +3.1 rORtg with Kareem being the clear best offensive player.

Kareem upped his game in the PS.

1970 Abdul-Jabbar PS had IA per 75 averages of 30.0 points(rTS% of +11), 14.6 rebounds, and 3.5 assists.

The Bucks improved their PS offense to +3.9 rORtg in the postseason.

The Bucks saw a 29-win improvement from the previous season with Kareem.

Ben Taylor writes on the matter as well:

"The ’69 expansion Bucks played at a 23-win pace when healthy (-6.4 SRS) in the first half of the season, and then a 31-win pace (-2.3) for the second half after a midseason trade. In 1970, they added Jabbar and (the historically underrated) Bobby Dandridge to complete the greatest rookie class in NBA history.4 The Bucks were aided by picture perfect health — their top eight players missed a combined 16 games — and as a result, the ’70 team catapulted to a 53-win pace (4.3 SRS) in Kareem’s rookie year."

Wilt also was incredible and has an argument for at least a top 2 GOAT rookie season.

To a lesser extent, I think Russell, Bird, and Oscar deserve a mention.

You might find this pod an interesting resource to shine some light on your question:

https://open.spotify.com/episode/1Uc4w69mhDt0LaGMKm9F98?si=md0kt2tPT_K_2OJ7WCnleg
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Re: Are there any players that came into the league already in their prime? 

Post#3 » by PistolPeteJR » Fri May 26, 2023 5:59 pm

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Re: Are there any players that came into the league already in their prime? 

Post#4 » by Owly » Fri May 26, 2023 6:07 pm

Depends on how one defines prime.

Jordan of the 3 noted is the least clear, IMO.

Some possibilities...
Unseld. Marques Johnson. Gilmore. Bird? Mikan. Baylor. Robertson? Duncan? Kareem (prob not, year 2 jump)? [edit: Bobby Jones]

Lesser guys ... Sampson, Walter Davis (maybe not so far off Marques, idk, just thinking top 100ish as cutoff, Marques seems plausible though haven't looked recently, Davis not so much).

Any number of much lower guys ... e.g. Carl Landry and Landry Fields both have their best productivity years in year 1.
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Re: Are there any players that came into the league already in their prime? 

Post#5 » by Colbinii » Fri May 26, 2023 6:33 pm

Carmelo Anthony was really close. He was a 25/6.5/3 player for most of his prime and averaged 21/6/3 his rookie season. He was -25.9 TS+ his rookie season and right around that for his career [average of about +10 TS+ for his prime].

Mitch Richmond was also in his prime his rookie season.
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Re: Are there any players that came into the league already in their prime? 

Post#6 » by wojoaderge » Fri May 26, 2023 6:34 pm

A bunch of ABA players
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Re: Are there any players that came into the league already in their prime? 

Post#7 » by prolific passer » Fri May 26, 2023 6:43 pm

Wilt and Unseld.
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Re: Are there any players that came into the league already in their prime? 

Post#8 » by kendogg » Fri May 26, 2023 6:51 pm

1. Larry Bird. Only 4th in MVP voting his rookie season, but 2nd in the next two, then 3 straight MVPs. I'm pretty sure he's the highest win total difference from one year to the next. His off the charts basketball IQ was in effect from day 1 and his overall game vaulted the Celtics from lottery team to contender.
2. Wilt Chamberlain. Won MVP his rookie season and led the league in PPG. Wilt's game evolved over his career but he was the best scorer and best rim protector from day 1.
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. 3rd in MVP voting his rookie season, then won MVP in the next 2 seasons. Had one of the most dominant college careers of all-time as well if not the most....he was NBA ready before he ever went to college.

I think these guys are the top 3 (not necessarily in this order). Your guys are somewhere between 4-8. With Oscar Robertson in that 4-8 mix as well. Magic and Duncan probably round out the top 10.
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Re: Are there any players that came into the league already in their prime? 

Post#9 » by Rich Michmond » Fri May 26, 2023 7:01 pm

I'd go with Alvan Adams. One of the most NBA-ready rookies ever.
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Re: Are there any players that came into the league already in their prime? 

Post#10 » by MiamiBulls » Fri May 26, 2023 7:12 pm

Tim Duncan, Top 5 in MVP voting

Vince Carter, his 2nd & 3rd years in the league were best years in the NBA.

Larry Bird, Grant Hill, Kareem, Dwyane Wade were all in their primes by their 2nd years.

Michael Jordan didn't hit his prime until the '87-'88 season.
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Re: Are there any players that came into the league already in their prime? 

Post#11 » by rk2023 » Fri May 26, 2023 7:17 pm

Oscar Robertson, David Robinson, Kareem are my three best nods.
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Re: Are there any players that came into the league already in their prime? 

Post#12 » by Eagle4 » Fri May 26, 2023 7:46 pm

Wade was Wade by his 2nd year.
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Re: Are there any players that came into the league already in their prime? 

Post#13 » by prolific passer » Fri May 26, 2023 8:28 pm

Rich Michmond wrote:I'd go with Alvan Adams. One of the most NBA-ready rookies ever.

Underrated and forgotten all star type of the late 70s and early 80s.
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Re: Are there any players that came into the league already in their prime? 

Post#14 » by giberish » Fri May 26, 2023 9:55 pm

There's a bunch of minor Euro's who didn't come over until they were 25 or so that were in their primes - though obviously not Bird/Kareem level primes.
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Re: Are there any players that came into the league already in their prime? 

Post#15 » by Amare_1_Knicks » Fri May 26, 2023 10:07 pm

Larry Johnson and Glenn Robinson were the first two to come to mind. Blake Griffin became a more skillful player as time went on, but statistically, his rookie season was right in line with his prime numbers. Mark Jackson’s another. Duncan and Steve Francis probably aren’t too far off this.
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Re: Are there any players that came into the league already in their prime? 

Post#16 » by NO-KG-AI » Fri May 26, 2023 10:22 pm

I'm surprised Tim Duncan is getting so little burn here. The biggest difference in his numbers from his rookie year and his peak is basically due to there being more shots available with Robinson aging out. He already looked like he could handle that bigger role any time they shoved it on him.

Duncan was 21/12/2.5 with all NBA first team defense and 2.5 blocks to go with it from the jump. He didn't noticeably improve or change any particular area of his game, he just settled into the NBA and the speed of things it seems.
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Re: Are there any players that came into the league already in their prime? 

Post#17 » by prolific passer » Fri May 26, 2023 10:25 pm

Actually. Walt Bellamy actually peaked in his rookie season and got worse after.
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Re: Are there any players that came into the league already in their prime? 

Post#18 » by capfan33 » Fri May 26, 2023 11:51 pm

LukaTheGOAT wrote:There is the possibility that Kareem was the best player in the world before he got to the NBA. He clearly got better as time went on, but you could argue he was already in his prime from the get-go.

In Kareem's rookie year,

1970 Abdul-Jabbar RS had Inflation Adjusted per 75 averages of:

22.4 points (rTS% of +4.1%), along with 11.3 rebounds, and 3.2 assists.

The Bucks had a +3.1 rORtg with Kareem being the clear best offensive player.

Kareem upped his game in the PS.

1970 Abdul-Jabbar PS had IA per 75 averages of 30.0 points(rTS% of +11), 14.6 rebounds, and 3.5 assists.

The Bucks improved their PS offense to +3.9 rORtg in the postseason.

The Bucks saw a 29-win improvement from the previous season with Kareem.

Ben Taylor writes on the matter as well:

"The ’69 expansion Bucks played at a 23-win pace when healthy (-6.4 SRS) in the first half of the season, and then a 31-win pace (-2.3) for the second half after a midseason trade. In 1970, they added Jabbar and (the historically underrated) Bobby Dandridge to complete the greatest rookie class in NBA history.4 The Bucks were aided by picture perfect health — their top eight players missed a combined 16 games — and as a result, the ’70 team catapulted to a 53-win pace (4.3 SRS) in Kareem’s rookie year."

Wilt also was incredible and has an argument for at least a top 2 GOAT rookie season.

To a lesser extent, I think Russell, Bird, and Oscar deserve a mention.

You might find this pod an interesting resource to shine some light on your question:

https://open.spotify.com/episode/1Uc4w69mhDt0LaGMKm9F98?si=md0kt2tPT_K_2OJ7WCnleg


I'm too lazy to pull up the stats right now, but if you split the year in half roughly, Kareem's 2nd half in 1970 statistically is very similar to 1971. So I would say he was definitively in his prime by then.
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Re: Are there any players that came into the league already in their prime? 

Post#19 » by Owly » Sat May 27, 2023 6:23 am

Colbinii wrote:Carmelo Anthony was really close. He was a 25/6.5/3 player for most of his prime and averaged 21/6/3 his rookie season. He was -25.9 TS+ his rookie season and right around that for his career [average of about +10 TS+ for his prime].

Mitch Richmond was also in his prime his rookie season.

Anthony was given a big role ... and as noted "prime" is fuzzy ... (and most will define his prime as longer than the span around his two semi-outlier peak production [13-14] and on-of [14-15] years so his prime standard might not be that high.

Still ... year one and year 2 composites (probably could be thought of first one and a half years, numbers greatly improved at mid-season roughly around all-star break/Karl's arrival, iirc, but that would be too messy to figure out, though the gap would be greater) ... are pretty average (17.2 PER, .098 WS/48, -0.5 BPM), they take a jump at year 3 to a level which are more typical, if high end, of his prime (22, .153, 2.7).

It's not a Durantian gap where the (y1) efficiency is horrible, and the team is substantially worse with him on, but the hype around Carmelo ("He should be a Western Conference All-Star" [as a forward, at that time], was heard quite a bit) surpassed the reality.

As ever ... definitions etc ... it's not crazy but I would say the leap at year three (or during year 2) makes it a tough sell.
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Re: Are there any players that came into the league already in their prime? 

Post#20 » by Owly » Sat May 27, 2023 6:29 am

prolific passer wrote:Actually. Walt Bellamy actually peaked in his rookie season and got worse after.

Perhaps Zephyrs teammate Terry Dischinger too peaked around the start, though year 2 is unclear.

Geoff Petrie maybe (box composites are dinging him heavily for team D in '74 - if that's harsh then that year may well be better as he's significantly more efficient)?

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