2023 Draft Discussion Part 5

[BoyzNTheHood]

This is my last response to you because you’re absolutely clueless and happy about it. And no, you don’t any make sense, but I wouldn’t expect you to understand why. It’s funny how you’re calling me “goofy” when I haven’t called you any childish names, and then have the audacity to call me an “azzhole”. Again, make it make sense. Nice try avoiding the language filter, but reported.

Do you research next time. Alexander is right up there with Bufkin when it comes to everything except finishing at the rim. It’s arguable who had better teammates to take away from their production more, but Bufkin basically had 2 other pros in Dickinson and Howard, while Alexander was playing off of Kaluma, Kalkbrenner, Nembhard, and Baylor Scheierman.

Alexander was the better shooter statistically. Had better percentages across the board, except for at the rim which was previously mentioned. He’s just as disruptive as a defender, has a better TS%, a better BPM, etc etc. Personally, I’d take Bufkin in the lottery and Alexander in the 20’s because I think the pro game suits Bufkin more, but to say Alexander will be available in the 2nd round is laughably ignorant.

Nah he's right. You're being an ass for no reason. Is everything ok bro?

Sent from my LG-H873 using RealGM mobile app

Well to be fair, he kind of is...usually like that. I mean, look at his signature. Yeah, I said that. I was trying to poke the bear when I said it. But its been SEVEN YEARS and he hasn't let it go.

Reported.

And let’s be clear that you were dead serious. But if it hurts you this badly I can remove it. All you have to do is ask instead of being snarky. I post on my phone so I don’t see the signature, but clearly it gets under your skin.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

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Whitmore's chart looks promising while Jarace's doesn't tbh

Lots of people on this board saying Whitmore is gonna bust and it took me a while initially to really get a good read on him but given his output at his age playing against tough college competition and when you consider his physical attributes, ability to shoot the ball and willingness to attack the rim with violence everything is there for him. He had some outstanding rebounding performances for an SF (11 out of 26 games w 7+ rebounds), 2.4 stocks per 36 and solid enough shooting percentages that moderate improvement will get him to a very good level of efficiency.

I said earlier that his pullup game off the dribble is what will make or break him and that chart confirms it. No reason for me to believe he can't improve greatly in that area. I understand the Stanley Johnson type concerns but I don't see it with Whitmore.

[Son Goku 25]

Brandin Podziemski reminds me of like Derrick White at 0.85x speed right now.

Reminds me of raptors legend Dragic

[Los_29]

Yeah... Hood-Schifino has such a low BPM that if he managed to stick around after his rookie contract, he would be a outlier of truly epic proportions. Mind you, BPM is not a perfect indicator of NBA success but like... he's not even at 1.

IF everything falls right he MIGHT be a rotation guard but that's a huge if. He's firmly on my personal Do Not Draft list.

I don't rely completely on stats to evaluate talent , a lot of it is devoid of context , but I guess we will see , saving all this receipts lol I trust the eye test

Sent from my SM-S918W using RealGM mobile app

Are you a professional scout who has been trained/ been given guidance by others and has decades of experience? If not I suggest to change your tactics.

Here is a guy with Aspergers I think who decided to start trying to scout around a decade ago and trusts numbers a lot more than the eye test (he still uses the eye test a fair amount) and he has been way more successful at predicting NBA success than the other notable scouts like Ford/Vecenie/ random notable internet writer that ranks everyone almost the same as everyone else:

https://deanondraft.substack.com/

Old site:
https://deanondraft.com/

This guy is excellent. He's better than 95% of scouts working for NBA teams. lol.

[Dalek]

I don't rely completely on stats to evaluate talent , a lot of it is devoid of context , but I guess we will see , saving all this receipts lol I trust the eye test

Sent from my SM-S918W using RealGM mobile app

Are you a professional scout who has been trained/ been given guidance by others and has decades of experience? If not I suggest to change your tactics.

Here is a guy with Aspergers I think who decided to start trying to scout around a decade ago and trusts numbers a lot more than the eye test (he still uses the eye test a fair amount) and he has been way more successful at predicting NBA success than the other notable scouts like Ford/Vecenie/ random notable internet writer that ranks everyone almost the same as everyone else:

https://deanondraft.substack.com/

Old site:
https://deanondraft.com/

This guy is excellent. He's better than 95% of scouts working for NBA teams. lol.

Yup he is the best - he should be at least on ESPN. Let's see a couple gems. Look at his comp for Scottie back in the day in 2021:

SloMo has near identical dimensions to Barnes and was similarly disruptive on defense. The major difference is that Barnes moves in regular motion, and was able to self-create for himself and teammates better as a freshman, which is a fairly significant advantage.

Anderson had a better NCAA FT% (73.5 vs 62) which has finally translated into a decent 3 point shot this past season at age 27, but he was a decent rotation player before then and now solidly good. He also had a much better NCAA DREB% (23 vs 11.1) and had the better basketball IQ to help compensate for his slowness.

It’s not a lock that Barnes will be as good or better than Anderson in the NBA, but he is a clearly superior prospect and on average should be better than Anderson. Given that Anderson would likely be worth a top 10 pick in this draft, it’s not a bad soft floor to have.

https://deanondraft.com/2021/06/15/how-good-is-scottie-barnes/

Slo Mo top 10 pick in the 2021 draft. Amazing stuff.

How about 2018? RJ Barrett no. 1 Jontay Porter no. 2 and Nas Little no. 3.

3. Nassir Little 6’6″ SF, North Carolina

Little is being hyped as the #2 guy to challenge Barrett. He is extremely athletic with a long 7’2″ wingspan and has potential to be highly disruptive on defense.

https://deanondraft.com/2018/06/
His no. 9 was Ja Morant and no. 11 was Zion Williams.

Please don't quote Dean. Half the board could do better than this guy.

[C_Money]

I’m watching this Brandin Podziemski guy that you all have been hyping up and he looks like the real deal. At least offensively. If he played at a bigger school I think he would be higher on the mock drafts.

[DreamTeam09]

I don't rely completely on stats to evaluate talent , a lot of it is devoid of context , but I guess we will see , saving all this receipts lol I trust the eye test

Sent from my SM-S918W using RealGM mobile app

Are you a professional scout who has been trained/ been given guidance by others and has decades of experience? If not I suggest to change your tactics.

Here is a guy with Aspergers I think who decided to start trying to scout around a decade ago and trusts numbers a lot more than the eye test (he still uses the eye test a fair amount) and he has been way more successful at predicting NBA success than the other notable scouts like Ford/Vecenie/ random notable internet writer that ranks everyone almost the same as everyone else:

https://deanondraft.substack.com/

Old site:
https://deanondraft.com/

This guy is excellent. He's better than 95% of scouts working for NBA teams. lol.

His big board looks wild

[Dalek]

I’m watching this Brandin Podziemski guy that you all have been hyping up and he looks like the real deal. At least offensively. If he played at a bigger school I think he would be higher on the mock drafts.

Jalen Williams went to the same school and went lotto just last year.

Podz is good but he is not very athletic and not an elite playmaker but he is a pretty good shooter, timely rebounder and a smart player you want on the floor.

He is about a 6'5 SG with a small wingspan. So mid 20s sounds good because I am not sure of his upside. Like Derrick White sounds like a good comp. I don't think anyone takes White lotto.

[Dalek]

His big board looks wild

Dean is like an ear worm. You read his takes and they are so wild you laugh. Then after a few weeks or months you come back to them and they start making sense until in the end you find yourself singing his song.

[Los_29]

Are you a professional scout who has been trained/ been given guidance by others and has decades of experience? If not I suggest to change your tactics.

Here is a guy with Aspergers I think who decided to start trying to scout around a decade ago and trusts numbers a lot more than the eye test (he still uses the eye test a fair amount) and he has been way more successful at predicting NBA success than the other notable scouts like Ford/Vecenie/ random notable internet writer that ranks everyone almost the same as everyone else:

https://deanondraft.substack.com/

Old site:
https://deanondraft.com/

This guy is excellent. He's better than 95% of scouts working for NBA teams. lol.

Yup he is the best - he should be at least on ESPN. Let's see a couple gems. Look at his comp for Scottie back in the day in 2021:

SloMo has near identical dimensions to Barnes and was similarly disruptive on defense. The major difference is that Barnes moves in regular motion, and was able to self-create for himself and teammates better as a freshman, which is a fairly significant advantage.

Anderson had a better NCAA FT% (73.5 vs 62) which has finally translated into a decent 3 point shot this past season at age 27, but he was a decent rotation player before then and now solidly good. He also had a much better NCAA DREB% (23 vs 11.1) and had the better basketball IQ to help compensate for his slowness.

It’s not a lock that Barnes will be as good or better than Anderson in the NBA, but he is a clearly superior prospect and on average should be better than Anderson. Given that Anderson would likely be worth a top 10 pick in this draft, it’s not a bad soft floor to have.

https://deanondraft.com/2021/06/15/how-good-is-scottie-barnes/

Slo Mo top 10 pick in the 2021 draft. Amazing stuff.

How about 2018? RJ Barrett no. 1 Jontay Porter no. 2 and Nas Little no. 3.

3. Nassir Little 6’6″ SF, North Carolina

Little is being hyped as the #2 guy to challenge Barrett. He is extremely athletic with a long 7’2″ wingspan and has potential to be highly disruptive on defense.

https://deanondraft.com/2018/06/
His no. 9 was Ja Morant and no. 11 was Zion Williams.

Please don't quote Dean. Half the board could do better than this guy.

You need to look through his draft boards. Think he goes back to 2014. Lots of good stuff.

And he was a huge fan of Scottie and wrote a big piece on him. He didn’t say that SloMo was Scottie’s ceiling. He thought Scottie had a very high ceiling.

Dean has nailed the past few drafts. He loved Franz, Scottie, Mobley, Giddey, Sengun. Disliked Cade, Green and Kuminga.

The draft is a crapshoot. Of course he’s going to make mistakes. But he makes a lot less than these guys being paid big bucks in the NBA.

[Dalek]

This guy is excellent. He's better than 95% of scouts working for NBA teams. lol.

Yup he is the best - he should be at least on ESPN. Let's see a couple gems. Look at his comp for Scottie back in the day in 2021:

SloMo has near identical dimensions to Barnes and was similarly disruptive on defense. The major difference is that Barnes moves in regular motion, and was able to self-create for himself and teammates better as a freshman, which is a fairly significant advantage.

Anderson had a better NCAA FT% (73.5 vs 62) which has finally translated into a decent 3 point shot this past season at age 27, but he was a decent rotation player before then and now solidly good. He also had a much better NCAA DREB% (23 vs 11.1) and had the better basketball IQ to help compensate for his slowness.

It’s not a lock that Barnes will be as good or better than Anderson in the NBA, but he is a clearly superior prospect and on average should be better than Anderson. Given that Anderson would likely be worth a top 10 pick in this draft, it’s not a bad soft floor to have.

https://deanondraft.com/2021/06/15/how-good-is-scottie-barnes/

Slo Mo top 10 pick in the 2021 draft. Amazing stuff.

How about 2018? RJ Barrett no. 1 Jontay Porter no. 2 and Nas Little no. 3.

3. Nassir Little 6’6″ SF, North Carolina

Little is being hyped as the #2 guy to challenge Barrett. He is extremely athletic with a long 7’2″ wingspan and has potential to be highly disruptive on defense.

https://deanondraft.com/2018/06/
His no. 9 was Ja Morant and no. 11 was Zion Williams.

Please don't quote Dean. Half the board could do better than this guy.

You need to look through his draft boards. Think he goes back to 2014. Lots of good stuff.

And he was a huge fan of Scottie and wrote a big piece on him. He didn’t say that SloMo was Scottie’s ceiling. He thought Scottie had a very high ceiling.

Dean has nailed the past few drafts. He loved Franz, Scottie, Mobley, Giddey, Sengun. Disliked Cade, Green and Kuminga.

The draft is a crapshoot. Of course he’s going to make mistakes. But he makes a lot less than these guys being paid big bucks in the NBA.

He constantly make large obvious mistakes because he doesn't watch enough and relies and measurements and numbers.

Just because he figures out one or two role players he seems to hit each year. But he actually had Ja Morant and Zion Williams outside his top 5. Two legit franchise guys. Like how does one overlook that?

He was the same with Cade who hasn't been healthy but I still think he will end up close to 1 or 2 in the class. Dean is just hot takes.

[Yallbecrazy]

Are you a professional scout who has been trained/ been given guidance by others and has decades of experience? If not I suggest to change your tactics.

Here is a guy with Aspergers I think who decided to start trying to scout around a decade ago and trusts numbers a lot more than the eye test (he still uses the eye test a fair amount) and he has been way more successful at predicting NBA success than the other notable scouts like Ford/Vecenie/ random notable internet writer that ranks everyone almost the same as everyone else:

https://deanondraft.substack.com/

Old site:
https://deanondraft.com/

This guy is excellent. He's better than 95% of scouts working for NBA teams. lol.

Yup he is the best - he should be at least on ESPN. Let's see a couple gems. Look at his comp for Scottie back in the day in 2021:

SloMo has near identical dimensions to Barnes and was similarly disruptive on defense. The major difference is that Barnes moves in regular motion, and was able to self-create for himself and teammates better as a freshman, which is a fairly significant advantage.

Anderson had a better NCAA FT% (73.5 vs 62) which has finally translated into a decent 3 point shot this past season at age 27, but he was a decent rotation player before then and now solidly good. He also had a much better NCAA DREB% (23 vs 11.1) and had the better basketball IQ to help compensate for his slowness.

It’s not a lock that Barnes will be as good or better than Anderson in the NBA, but he is a clearly superior prospect and on average should be better than Anderson. Given that Anderson would likely be worth a top 10 pick in this draft, it’s not a bad soft floor to have.

https://deanondraft.com/2021/06/15/how-good-is-scottie-barnes/

Slo Mo top 10 pick in the 2021 draft. Amazing stuff.

How about 2018? RJ Barrett no. 1 Jontay Porter no. 2 and Nas Little no. 3.

3. Nassir Little 6’6″ SF, North Carolina

Little is being hyped as the #2 guy to challenge Barrett. He is extremely athletic with a long 7’2″ wingspan and has potential to be highly disruptive on defense.

https://deanondraft.com/2018/06/
His no. 9 was Ja Morant and no. 11 was Zion Williams.

Please don't quote Dean. Half the board could do better than this guy.

His final 2021 draft board was 1. Mobley 2. Scottie Barnes which looks pretty damn good right about now.

You picked his 2019 rankings pre NCAA in June of 2018, he changed them as the season progressed.
Mid-season he had Zion #1, JA #2. I couldn't find his final 2019 rankings, unsure if he even did one.

I'm really not sure what you are trying to do here. He clearly has rankings that are very different from other scouts and some of those will be wrong and some will be right (and he's more right than wrong relatively), but the two examples you picked to say he was wrong was one where he was very right and another which was over a year before the draft where everyone's rankings are terrible. He actually had JA much higher than anyone else at that stage.

[ArthurVandelay]

Are you a professional scout who has been trained/ been given guidance by others and has decades of experience? If not I suggest to change your tactics.

Here is a guy with Aspergers I think who decided to start trying to scout around a decade ago and trusts numbers a lot more than the eye test (he still uses the eye test a fair amount) and he has been way more successful at predicting NBA success than the other notable scouts like Ford/Vecenie/ random notable internet writer that ranks everyone almost the same as everyone else:

https://deanondraft.substack.com/

Old site:
https://deanondraft.com/

This guy is excellent. He's better than 95% of scouts working for NBA teams. lol.

His big board looks wild

I appreciate that for the simple act of being different. Most popular mock drafts or websites are a giant exercise in group think. No one wants to be too different from the majority. Better to be wrong with everyone than stand out on your own.

[ATLTimekeeper]

I think there's a lot of draftniks that try to be the next Givony/Chad Ford and make a full-time living at it. As a result they might pander to agents/players in order for access. I don't think Dean is doing that.

[OakleyDokely]

This guy is excellent. He's better than 95% of scouts working for NBA teams. lol.

His big board looks wild

I appreciate that for the simple act of being different. Most popular mock drafts or websites are a giant exercise in group think. No one wants to be too different from the majority. Better to be wrong with everyone than stand out on your own.

Nice to see he's pretty high on Mo Gueye. He does feel like a Siakam-like sleeper.

[Psubs]

This guy is excellent. He's better than 95% of scouts working for NBA teams. lol.

Yup he is the best - he should be at least on ESPN. Let's see a couple gems. Look at his comp for Scottie back in the day in 2021:

SloMo has near identical dimensions to Barnes and was similarly disruptive on defense. The major difference is that Barnes moves in regular motion, and was able to self-create for himself and teammates better as a freshman, which is a fairly significant advantage.

Anderson had a better NCAA FT% (73.5 vs 62) which has finally translated into a decent 3 point shot this past season at age 27, but he was a decent rotation player before then and now solidly good. He also had a much better NCAA DREB% (23 vs 11.1) and had the better basketball IQ to help compensate for his slowness.

It’s not a lock that Barnes will be as good or better than Anderson in the NBA, but he is a clearly superior prospect and on average should be better than Anderson. Given that Anderson would likely be worth a top 10 pick in this draft, it’s not a bad soft floor to have.

https://deanondraft.com/2021/06/15/how-good-is-scottie-barnes/

Slo Mo top 10 pick in the 2021 draft. Amazing stuff.

How about 2018? RJ Barrett no. 1 Jontay Porter no. 2 and Nas Little no. 3.

3. Nassir Little 6’6″ SF, North Carolina

Little is being hyped as the #2 guy to challenge Barrett. He is extremely athletic with a long 7’2″ wingspan and has potential to be highly disruptive on defense.

https://deanondraft.com/2018/06/
His no. 9 was Ja Morant and no. 11 was Zion Williams.

Please don't quote Dean. Half the board could do better than this guy.

His final 2021 draft board was 1. Mobley 2. Scottie Barnes which looks pretty damn good right about now.

You picked his 2019 rankings pre NCAA in June of 2018, he changed them as the season progressed.
Mid-season he had Zion #1, JA #2. I couldn't find his final 2019 rankings, unsure if he even did one.

I'm really not sure what you are trying to do here. He clearly has rankings that are very different from other scouts and some of those will be wrong and some will be right (and he's more right than wrong relatively), but the two examples you picked to say he was wrong was one where he was very right and another which was over a year before the draft where everyone's rankings are terrible. He actually had JA much higher than anyone else at that stage.

Nice work!

[Dalek]

I'm really not sure what you are trying to do here. He clearly has rankings that are very different from other scouts and some of those will be wrong and some will be right (and he's more right than wrong relatively), but the two examples you picked to say he was wrong was one where he was very right and another which was over a year before the draft where everyone's rankings are terrible. He actually had JA much higher than anyone else at that stage.

He has a ton of bad takes over the years and a few good ones. He just bugs me because he can be outright dismissive of players if he can't find numbers he likes. He almost solely relies on size and age and shooting numbers of past prospects to determine predictability of prospects. Often outright leaving out the eye test and high school rankings.

This year, the Thompson twins are not draftable for him because he doesn't think it is fair to evaluate these 20 YOs in their league. Nick Smith is also terrible in his eyes while Jaime Jaquez is within the top 10. It maybe early draftboards but those takes often inform a lot of opinions here for months.

I do think there are many new pathways for players and they often don't treat college or other leagues like OTE other than training steps for the NBA. Also systems and players around them, injuries and parity in leagues influence their situation and can mean they don't hit is number thresholds.

[BoyzNTheHood]

I'm really not sure what you are trying to do here. He clearly has rankings that are very different from other scouts and some of those will be wrong and some will be right (and he's more right than wrong relatively), but the two examples you picked to say he was wrong was one where he was very right and another which was over a year before the draft where everyone's rankings are terrible. He actually had JA much higher than anyone else at that stage.

He has a ton of bad takes over the years and a few good ones. He just bugs me because he can be outright dismissive of players if he can't find numbers he likes. He almost solely relies on size and age and shooting numbers of past prospects to determine predictability of prospects. Often outright leaving out the eye test and high school rankings.

This year, the Thompson twins are not draftable for him because he doesn't think it is fair to evaluate these 20 YOs in their league. Nick Smith is also terrible in his eyes while Jaime Jaquez is within the top 10. It maybe early draftboards but those takes often inform a lot of opinions here for months.

I do think there are many new pathways for players and they often don't treat college or other leagues like OTE other than training steps for the NBA. Also systems and players around them, injuries and parity in leagues influence their situation and can mean they don't hit is number thresholds.

Dean sounds like me! The Thompson twins are walking red flags, NSJ is terrible, and Jaime Jaquez is super underrated! I will have to check out more of this Dean and his draft content.

[Rodrickle]

Dean has a lot of good takes and a some of bad takes, just like other scouts, Not sure what his hit rate is, but his bad takes seem really bad. Nico Mannion at #7, Keon Johnson top 10, Wiseman top 3. I don't think anyone can comment on success rate compared to other scouts without data. Scottie, Franz, Giddy and Mobley were all good takes but obviously very consensus among many front offices, so no ground breaking takes there. Jalen Green has his flaws but is still averaging really good numbers for a 2nd year. Sengun was a good take, but lots of posters were high on him as well due to success in Europe.

[BoyzNTheHood]

Dean has a lot of good takes and a some of bad takes, just like other scouts, Not sure what his hit rate is, but his bad takes seem really bad. Nico Mannion at #7, Keon Johnson top 10, Wiseman top 3. I don't think anyone can comment on success rate compared to other scouts without data. Scottie, Franz, Giddy and Mobley were all good takes but obviously very consensus among many front offices, so no ground breaking takes there. Jalen Green has his flaws but is still averaging really good numbers for a 2nd year. Sengun was a good take, but lots of posters were high on him as well due to success in Europe.

Yikes. Nico Mannion and Keon Johnson in the top 10 is a really bad take, even beforehand. Most of us in here preferred Keon’s teammate Jaden Springer to him. And Nico Mannion was a straight up no.