Are we overly penalizing guys on longevity based on era?

[NbaAllDay]

Using examples of outliers in the modern NBA doesn't really prove much of a point.

Lebron is an exterme outlier. Using two top 15 or do players all time in Curry and Durant also doesn't do much for the generalisation.

I'd be interested to see some actual data on it.

Pre 80s I cam absolutely see how you could conclude a difference however I don't really see a big difference over the past 30 years.

[Gooner]

It's easier to play longer now because the game is not physical and it's very easy to score on offense. LeBron at 37 and 38 averaged better numbers than he did in Miami. KD had the best numbers of his career at 33-34 age seasons and he did it after achilles injury. Steph Curry this season put carreer numbers, as did Damian Lillard, DeMar DeRozan, Jrue Holiday... Jimmy Butler is peaking right now at 33...Kawhi comes back at the age of 31 after ACL tear and dominates...Klay Thompson at the age of 32-33 had a very good season coming back from 2 devastating injuries... Chris Paul played his first final at the age of 36 as the team's starting point guard and arguably the best player... The standard for longevity has changed in sports and especially in the NBA. 30's are the new 20's.

[eminence]

Top 25 guys in games played and season they entered the league, as a proxy for elite longevity - it takes just short of 16 full seasons to crack the list:

Parish 1977
KAJ 1970
Carter 1999
Dirk 1999
Stockton 1985
K. Malone 1986
KG 1996
Moses 1975
Willis 1985
LeBron 2004
Terry 2000
Duncan 1998
Kidd 1995
Miller 1988
Uncle Cliffy 1990
Kobe 1997
Pierce 1999
Payton 1991
Gilmore 1972
Crawford 2001
Buck Williams 1982
Andre Miller 2000
Hayes 1969
Allen 1997
Caldwell Jones 1974

Doesn't seem like too many guys currently going likely to crack this list (CP3 is 75 games back, then Thad Young, Rudy Gay, Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook, and Kyle Lowry in the top 100 and played games last season and haven't retired). Harden/KD are 3 fully healthy seasons from cracking the list.

Overall I don't see much evidence longevity has gotten any more common from the 70s to now, maybe a slight uptick for guys who entered in the mid to late 90s.

Guys who entered prior to the late 60s/early 70s certainly had less longevity than their more modern counterparts, so it could be worth curving those guys up a bit.

[70sFan]

It's easier to play longer now because the game is not physical.

I don't understand how can anyone watch these playoffs and keep repeating such a bullsh*t claim...

[Owly]

Top 25 guys in games played and season they entered the league, as a proxy for elite longevity - it takes just short of 16 full seasons to crack the list:

Parish 1977
KAJ 1970
Carter 1999
Dirk 1999
Stockton 1985
K. Malone 1986
KG 1996
Moses 1975
Willis 1985
LeBron 2004
Terry 2000
Duncan 1998
Kidd 1995
Miller 1988
Uncle Cliffy 1990
Kobe 1997
Pierce 1999
Payton 1991
Gilmore 1972
Crawford 2001
Buck Williams 1982
Andre Miller 2000
Hayes 1969
Allen 1997
Caldwell Jones 1974

Doesn't seem like too many guys currently going likely to crack this list (CP3 is 75 games back, then Thad Young, Rudy Gay, Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook, and Kyle Lowry in the top 100 and played games last season and haven't retired). Harden/KD are 3 fully healthy seasons from cracking the list.

Overall I don't see much evidence longevity has gotten any more common from the 70s to now, maybe a slight uptick for guys who entered in the mid to late 90s.

Guys who entered prior to the late 60s/early 70s certainly had less longevity than their more modern counterparts, so it could be worth curving those guys up a bit.

Yeah it would seem harder for the 50s and into the 60s guys, both in terms of how long guys actually went and the reasons behind it.
Besides travel, equipment and medical stuff ...
Once the the NBA got going no joining until your class graduated (not entirely the case early on - e.g. Joe Grabowski) ...
Fewer games per season to get to those game totals ... (all else equal maybe you could argue it either way, based on the idea that a lesser load would allow you to make up those games later but irl ...)
Fewer playoff games ...
Maybe longer preseasons (idk about the reality, but my impression, probably more anecdotal rather than studying it, was a lot of preseason games to generate money for the teams) adding wear but not to the count ...

[Cavsfansince84]

Top 25 guys in games played and season they entered the league, as a proxy for elite longevity - it takes just short of 16 full seasons to crack the list:

Overall I don't see much evidence longevity has gotten any more common from the 70s to now, maybe a slight uptick for guys who entered in the mid to late 90s.

Guys who entered prior to the late 60s/early 70s certainly had less longevity than their more modern counterparts, so it could be worth curving those guys up a bit.

I think games played is one way to look at it but the focus I had was more really on prime length and I'd agree that from the 90's to today there hasn't been much of a difference among top players. Though I think we may be on the verge of it changing in the coming 10+ years. At which point the gist of the thread would apply beyond guys who played in the 50's/60's who were the ones I had in mind with this thread.

[frica]

I don't think there's much if any statistical evidence that modern guys (last 15 years) have any advantage in longevity compared to players in the 90s.

https://www.thehoopsgeek.com/average-age-nba-players/

https://hoopshype.com/2018/12/31/nba-aging-curve-father-time-prime-lebron-james-decline/

In fact, with modern load managent you'd expect the league to skew older yet it's skewing younger.
The game has become much more lateral which is way harder on the body than the (claimed) more physical style of play in the 90s.
Then again, anyone who claims modern NBA isn't physical hasn't seen the playoffs.

[magicman1978]

I have no preconceptions here so just looking at some numbers. For me, when I evaluate players - I focus on how good they were in their prime so age or numbers of seasons played aren't really factor. Just going to pick some names and assess against certain prime/longevity criteria (years > or = 6bpm [all-NBA level] - rounding all 5.9 up):

Current Players
LeBron - 19 (of course an outlier)
Paul - 11
Durant - 11
Curry - 8
Harden - 7
Giannis - 7
Kawhi - 7
Jokic - 7
Davis - 6
Lillard - 5
Butler - 4
Westbrook - 4
Doncic - 4

I think we can agree, prior to the 90s, longevity wasn't great so lets look at what we have from the 90s-2000s

Stockton - 13
Jordan - 12
Magic - 10
Malone - 8
Robinson - 8
Barkley - 8
Garnett - 8
Shaq - 7
Bird - 7
Duncan - 6
McGrady - 6
Drexler - 6
Dirk - 5
Ginobili - 5
Pippen - 4
Kobe - 4
Wade - 4
Hakeem - 3

Based on that very cursory "analysis", I am concluding that the best players tend to still be very good later into their career.

[DonaldSanders]

I don't understand how can anyone watch these playoffs and keep repeating such a bullsh*t claim...

It just shows how few people actually go and watch old games, and either rely on memory or just look up stats. I have gotten into watching old games a bunch this past year and plan to devour more this offseason, it really was eye opening. A lot of what I remembered was wrong, and the stuff I never saw wasn't like the highlights or portrayals made it out to be. I wish they were easier to find.

There's less outright physical violence (e.g. new flagrant rules prohibit this) but there is a difference between physical contact and physical exertion. Players are much more intensely guarded on the perimeter for example. People love to talk about hand checking but you actually see far less defense outside the 3P line in older games. I think older games allowed some players to use up less energy, e.g. a Kareem being able to park himself down low and still be able to provide rim protection or a skyhook. In the modern game I don't think he would have been able to play as long as he did, and part of that is just being forced to space the court and cover more distance.

So while the modern guys do get the benefit of tech/science helping to extend their careers, the modern game requires a different kind of defense that to me requires more athletic movement demands (as opposed to low post skills which aged really well). Older players now will be aging out because they can't keep up with having to guard a bigger portion of the court.

[LA Bird]

Neither Curry nor Durant have exceptional longevity - this idea that the league today is full of longevity outliers just like LeBron is nothing but an attempt by his usual haters to diminish his career achievements. LeBron could have retired a decade ago and still have more career minutes than Curry as of now in both the regular season and playoffs. By the time he was 30, LeBron had logged more NBA mileage than Durant have in his entire career. He is on another level from anyone else in the NBA now.

That being said, I do think this board penalize older players too much for staying in college rather than turning professional earlier. For example, Bird was most likely an All-NBA caliber player during college and it doesn't make much sense to have Bird in those years as less valuable than say 97-99 Kobe just because it wasn't professional basketball.

[Owly]

Neither Curry nor Durant have exceptional longevity - this idea that the league today is full of longevity outliers just like LeBron is nothing but an attempt by his usual haters to diminish his career achievements. LeBron could have retired a decade ago and still have more career minutes than Curry as of now in both the regular season and playoffs. By the time he was 30, LeBron had logged more NBA mileage than Durant have in his entire career. He is on another level from anyone else in the NBA now.

That being said, I do think this board penalize older players too much for staying in college rather than turning professional earlier. For example, Bird was most likely an All-NBA caliber player during college and it doesn't make much sense to have Bird in those years as less valuable than say 97-99 Kobe just because it wasn't professional basketball.

It doesn't make sense to say they're necessarily hypothetically worse.

It does make sense to say they aren't valuable to a pro team because he wasn't on one. And he could have been on one sooner, even just going up after four years. He was eligible for the 78 draft because he started at IU in 74-75. He chose to stay on as Robinson chose to remain at the Naval Academy after his sophormore year even though he knew there was a risk he couldn't get the service years deferred or waived or otherwise re-organized.

Fwiw, if he were that level of prospect and had wanted it ... there was an ABA team in Indiana, ABA teams were willing to take guys from high school, the ABA tried to direct guys local so they could be bigger draws, there's a three point line there ... it seems like it could have been mutually beneficial.

I don't know why it didn't happen with Bird.

I could get curving for it more if the question were under consideration were framed as such (best basketball player between 18 and ... 45, whatever) without an implicit or explicit focus on pro ball (which most discussions tend to be). Or in a situation where there were no opportunities to go early. Then again, more early pro-mileage probably doesn't come without a receipt on the back end anyhow.

I don't know that those Kobe years cited are huge value adds anyway, fwiw.

[Gooner]

Neither Curry nor Durant have exceptional longevity - this idea that the league today is full of longevity outliers just like LeBron is nothing but an attempt by his usual haters to diminish his career achievements. LeBron could have retired a decade ago and still have more career minutes than Curry as of now in both the regular season and playoffs. By the time he was 30, LeBron had logged more NBA mileage than Durant have in his entire career. He is on another level from anyone else in the NBA now.

That being said, I do think this board penalize older players too much for staying in college rather than turning professional earlier. For example, Bird was most likely an All-NBA caliber player during college and it doesn't make much sense to have Bird in those years as less valuable than say 97-99 Kobe just because it wasn't professional basketball.

You are ignoring the fact that KD had an achilles tear which used to be considered as career ending injury, and he came back and put up the best numbers of his career with the Nets at the age that was once considered "old" in professional sports.

[70sFan]

Neither Curry nor Durant have exceptional longevity - this idea that the league today is full of longevity outliers just like LeBron is nothing but an attempt by his usual haters to diminish his career achievements. LeBron could have retired a decade ago and still have more career minutes than Curry as of now in both the regular season and playoffs. By the time he was 30, LeBron had logged more NBA mileage than Durant have in his entire career. He is on another level from anyone else in the NBA now.

That being said, I do think this board penalize older players too much for staying in college rather than turning professional earlier. For example, Bird was most likely an All-NBA caliber player during college and it doesn't make much sense to have Bird in those years as less valuable than say 97-99 Kobe just because it wasn't professional basketball.

You are ignoring the fact that KD had an achilles tear which used to be considered as career ending injury, and he came back and put up the best numbers of his career with the Nets at the age that was once considered "old" in professional sports.

Durant doesn't "put up the best numbers of his career", he posted significantly better numbers all-around in his best seasons (2013-18). It's even clearer when you look at his postseason numbers from 2021-23 period, where he doesn't look even close to his peak self.

[Gooner]

Neither Curry nor Durant have exceptional longevity - this idea that the league today is full of longevity outliers just like LeBron is nothing but an attempt by his usual haters to diminish his career achievements. LeBron could have retired a decade ago and still have more career minutes than Curry as of now in both the regular season and playoffs. By the time he was 30, LeBron had logged more NBA mileage than Durant have in his entire career. He is on another level from anyone else in the NBA now.

That being said, I do think this board penalize older players too much for staying in college rather than turning professional earlier. For example, Bird was most likely an All-NBA caliber player during college and it doesn't make much sense to have Bird in those years as less valuable than say 97-99 Kobe just because it wasn't professional basketball.

You are ignoring the fact that KD had an achilles tear which used to be considered as career ending injury, and he came back and put up the best numbers of his career with the Nets at the age that was once considered "old" in professional sports.

Durant doesn't "put up the best numbers of his career", he posted significantly better numbers all-around in his best seasons (2013-18). It's even clearer when you look at his postseason numbers from 2021-23 period, where he doesn't look even close to his peak self.

That's simply not true. In 129 games with the Nets KD had the highest ppg, field goal percentage, 3 point percentage, free throw percentage, rpg and apg. I'm not making it up, it's easy to check. 29 ppg on 50/40/90 shooting with 7.1 rpg and 5.8 apg, to be exact. Best numbers of his career on a team in the regular season. It's true that in the last 2 postseaons he hasn't been the best, but he had statistically the best one in 2021.

[70sFan]

You are ignoring the fact that KD had an achilles tear which used to be considered as career ending injury, and he came back and put up the best numbers of his career with the Nets at the age that was once considered "old" in professional sports.

Durant doesn't "put up the best numbers of his career", he posted significantly better numbers all-around in his best seasons (2013-18). It's even clearer when you look at his postseason numbers from 2021-23 period, where he doesn't look even close to his peak self.

That's simply not true. In 129 games with the Nets KD had the highest ppg, field goal percentage, 3 point percentage, free throw percentage, rpg and apg. I'm not making it up, it's easy to check. 29 ppg on 50/40/90 shooting with 7.1 rpg and 5.8 apg, to be exact. Best numbers of his career on a team in the regular season. It's true that in the last 2 postseaons he hasn't been the best, but he had statistically the best one in 2021.

Raw numbers:

2013-16 Durant: 29.1 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 4.9 apg, 1.2 spg, 1.0 bpg, 3.4 tov, 50.6 FG%, 39.7 3P%, 63.8 TS%
2021-23 Durant: 28.8 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 5.7 apg, 0.8 spg, 1.2 bpg, 3.4 tov, 53.7 FG%, 40.8 3P%, 65.6 TS%

"Advanced" numbers:

2013-16 Durant: 28.7 PER, .283 WS/48, 8.3 OBPM
2021-23 Durant: 25.9 PER, .199 WS/48, 6.3 OBPM

The only advantage Brooklyn KD has over OKC version is his improved passing. OKC Durant posted higher ppg in much slower pace and comparable efficiency in far less efficient league. He also posted higher rebounding numbers despite playing more at SF.

You compare 3 years in Nets vs 6 seasons in OKC that include KD's rookie and sophomore seasons, which downgrades his averages. By all accounts, 2013-16 Durant was more productive RS player than Brooklyn KD.

[LA Bird]

Neither Curry nor Durant have exceptional longevity - this idea that the league today is full of longevity outliers just like LeBron is nothing but an attempt by his usual haters to diminish his career achievements. LeBron could have retired a decade ago and still have more career minutes than Curry as of now in both the regular season and playoffs. By the time he was 30, LeBron had logged more NBA mileage than Durant have in his entire career. He is on another level from anyone else in the NBA now.

That being said, I do think this board penalize older players too much for staying in college rather than turning professional earlier. For example, Bird was most likely an All-NBA caliber player during college and it doesn't make much sense to have Bird in those years as less valuable than say 97-99 Kobe just because it wasn't professional basketball.

You are ignoring the fact that KD had an achilles tear which used to be considered as career ending injury, and he came back and put up the best numbers of his career with the Nets at the age that was once considered "old" in professional sports.

Dominique Wilkins came back from an achilles rupture at an older age in half the time and put up a season that was statistically the second best of his entire career by PER, WS/48, BPM. Durant's Nets seasons have not been top 5 by his standard in any advanced metric and he has not had a full healthy season since coming back either.

Regardless, any one player coming back from a devastating injury does not make it the norm in an era. DeMarcus Cousins suffered an achilles injury around the same time as Durant and he is playing in Puerto Rico now.

That's simply not true. In 129 games with the Nets KD had the highest ppg, field goal percentage, 3 point percentage, free throw percentage, rpg and apg. I'm not making it up, it's easy to check. 29 ppg on 50/40/90 shooting with 7.1 rpg and 5.8 apg, to be exact. Best numbers of his career on a team in the regular season. It's true that in the last 2 postseaons he hasn't been the best, but he had statistically the best one in 2021.

Using raw unadjusted box sores when it's convenient for you to push a narrative, LOL. Nets Durant is not peak Durant, just like how 2022 LeBron is not better than 1992 Jordan despite having higher ppg, rpg, apg, FG%, 3P% (unless you want to argue otherwise )

[TheGOATRises007]

Interesting point.

In football/soccer, I often make the point that it was almost impossible for older players to have longevity of certain current players.

Though I think the landscape in that sport has more changes than basketball.

[Gooner]

Durant doesn't "put up the best numbers of his career", he posted significantly better numbers all-around in his best seasons (2013-18). It's even clearer when you look at his postseason numbers from 2021-23 period, where he doesn't look even close to his peak self.

That's simply not true. In 129 games with the Nets KD had the highest ppg, field goal percentage, 3 point percentage, free throw percentage, rpg and apg. I'm not making it up, it's easy to check. 29 ppg on 50/40/90 shooting with 7.1 rpg and 5.8 apg, to be exact. Best numbers of his career on a team in the regular season. It's true that in the last 2 postseaons he hasn't been the best, but he had statistically the best one in 2021.

Raw numbers:

2013-16 Durant: 29.1 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 4.9 apg, 1.2 spg, 1.0 bpg, 3.4 tov, 50.6 FG%, 39.7 3P%, 63.8 TS%
2021-23 Durant: 28.8 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 5.7 apg, 0.8 spg, 1.2 bpg, 3.4 tov, 53.7 FG%, 40.8 3P%, 65.6 TS%

"Advanced" numbers:

2013-16 Durant: 28.7 PER, .283 WS/48, 8.3 OBPM
2021-23 Durant: 25.9 PER, .199 WS/48, 6.3 OBPM

The only advantage Brooklyn KD has over OKC version is his improved passing. OKC Durant posted higher ppg in much slower pace and comparable efficiency in far less efficient league. He also posted higher rebounding numbers despite playing more at SF.

You compare 3 years in Nets vs 6 seasons in OKC that include KD's rookie and sophomore seasons, which downgrades his averages. By all accounts, 2013-16 Durant was more productive RS player than Brooklyn KD.

Improved passing should be considered when you talk about "all-around" game. You used the term "comparable efficiency". That's more appropriate for his ppg compared in those 2 periods. Efficiency gap is bigger. Overall, KD's stats with the Nets are the best clearly.

[Gooner]

Neither Curry nor Durant have exceptional longevity - this idea that the league today is full of longevity outliers just like LeBron is nothing but an attempt by his usual haters to diminish his career achievements. LeBron could have retired a decade ago and still have more career minutes than Curry as of now in both the regular season and playoffs. By the time he was 30, LeBron had logged more NBA mileage than Durant have in his entire career. He is on another level from anyone else in the NBA now.

That being said, I do think this board penalize older players too much for staying in college rather than turning professional earlier. For example, Bird was most likely an All-NBA caliber player during college and it doesn't make much sense to have Bird in those years as less valuable than say 97-99 Kobe just because it wasn't professional basketball.

You are ignoring the fact that KD had an achilles tear which used to be considered as career ending injury, and he came back and put up the best numbers of his career with the Nets at the age that was once considered "old" in professional sports.

Dominique Wilkins came back from an achilles rupture at an older age in half the time and put up a season that was statistically the second best of his entire career by PER, WS/48, BPM. Durant's Nets seasons have not been top 5 by his standard in any advanced metric and he has not had a full healthy season since coming back either.

Regardless, any one player coming back from a devastating injury does not make it the norm in an era. DeMarcus Cousins suffered an achilles injury around the same time as Durant and he is playing in Puerto Rico now.

That's simply not true. In 129 games with the Nets KD had the highest ppg, field goal percentage, 3 point percentage, free throw percentage, rpg and apg. I'm not making it up, it's easy to check. 29 ppg on 50/40/90 shooting with 7.1 rpg and 5.8 apg, to be exact. Best numbers of his career on a team in the regular season. It's true that in the last 2 postseaons he hasn't been the best, but he had statistically the best one in 2021.

Using raw unadjusted box sores when it's convenient for you to push a narrative, LOL. Nets Durant is not peak Durant, just like how 2022 LeBron is not better than 1992 Jordan despite having higher ppg, rpg, apg, FG%, 3P% (unless you want to argue otherwise )

I'm not saying that stats tell the whole story, I'm the last to believe that. But when you talk about longevity, people will look at how the player's stats held up over the years, that's just the reality. The reason why people praise LBJ for his longevity is primarily because of his stats. Nobody is talking about the fact that his team has had terrible results without Anthony Davis, which kinda puts LBJ's impact into perspective.

[LA Bird]

Nobody is talking about the fact that his team has had terrible results without Anthony Davis, which kinda puts LBJ's impact into perspective.

Lakers with LeBron without Davis: +3.98 Net in 4340 minutes
Lakers with Davis without LeBron: -0.83 Net in 3083 minutes

What's this you were saying about impact?