2023 Draft Discussion Part 5

[ItsDanger]

Despite all the media BS, what those players wanted that went back to college was guaranteed money. Maybe 2 years, maybe just 1 year guaranteed. All the GMs know that. So, look at those names, if they come back in 2024 draft ranked mid 1st round or wherever, all these teams could have had him cheap. Their agents can say don't draft their client, they got a deal with a team, this happens often. Not saying those guys are locks to work out, but odds are much higher than other options. But these GMs passed on it.

[Yallbecrazy]

:D

Toronto has some Hawaiin player named Kamaka Hepa in for a workout. Bobby working his almamater magic.

Read on Twitter

Would be nice if our media covered any of this. Also, who is this 23 YO guy?

LOL looking at this guy's stats they're wasting their time. If they're even considering a guy like this as a UDFA then maxwell lewis is on the table at 13 for Bobby boy.

Shameful.

Sometimes it's not even for who we are looking at for the Summer League or as UDFAs, but actually grabbing guys to fill out the workout when you're looking at the guys you are interested in.

[PhilBlackson]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

You can see he’s just scratching the surface of his potential. Still praying he’s our pick at 13.

I know that are some on here that think he's more of a SF but I see him as a swingman type. He can play both SG and SF positions. He showcased a developing handle in the junior leagues and is slowing showing it in these playoffs. The kid just glides to the rim. He's going to be a 5 year project but could be something special.

LOL I'm sorry I had to highlight this word because it's ironic to me that I said it awhile ago but PHYSICALLY (just his FRAME, not as explosive leaper & obviously not going to be as skilled as he likely took on the sport at a later age) but his body type, the way he moves with the ball in his hands & speed reminds a lot of CLYDE DREXLER (lite lol - not the level of dunker/explosive leaper)..

Watch on YouTube

Again, NOT saying he will be level of player but I see people throw out Mikal Bridges as a comparison, who just his frame didn't look as strong at the same age and who's game is more about his jumper where as Bilal likes to take it to the rim although he's adding a jumper to it. But at the HEIGHT of his potential, I think he'd be something like GLIDE-LITE lol...right now he's probably ultra-lite at best lol but it's something along those lines of the potential I see in him if he maxed out as a player & why to me he is THE potential steal in this draft for a team with a good developmental staff, it goes without saying that if I trusted any team to get some of that out of him, I think & pray it's us that can do it.

Bring the French Glide home! lol (as aside Drexler is criminally underrated all-time, people show Grant Hill love all the time of what he "could've been" but personally I think the Glyde was a similar level player, if not better)

[Yallbecrazy]

I didn’t see your post. Got a link?

Again, DBPM and BPM doesn’t ensure success but it pretty much guarantees who won’t succeed. That’s the key for me, it’s a filter. And like everything else there are exceptions to any rule, like Zach Lavine.

So any other stars or even 5+ year starters out there with low DBPM (<1) or BPM (<2) numbers?

I’m genuinely interested if anyone can find real players versus opinions.

Low DBPM has some very good players, still.

I didn't look at top 10, but here's just BPM all-stars:

NBA stars drafted beyond pick #10 draft year BPM, I bolded everyone under 8:

Siakam, 8.2
MItchell 11.2
Haliburton 11.7
Adebayo 8.2
SGA 9
Sabonis 8.2
LaVine 2.9
FVV 10.2
Jimmy Butler 9.4
Khris Middleton 6.2
Jarrett Allen 5.2
Devin Booker 9.4
D. Murray 3.6
Draymond Green 12.1
Vucevic 9.4
Kawhi Leonard 9.2
Klay Thompson 9.8
Isaiah Thomas 8.1

Worth noting that Khris Middleton was over 8 in his sophomore year and had some knee issues in his junior (draft) year. I think Jrue Holiday would likely qualify under 8, because he was pretty meh at UCLA. My thoughts are pretty obvious. If you're hunting for an all-star later on in the draft you need to look at >8s and consider Zach LaVine/D. Murray types as flukes.

Here's just solid players:

I went through every NBA player playing over 20 minutes a night (242 players, well over 100 NCAA players since they've counted BPM). Here's how many had a draft year BPM under 5.

Austin Rivers (4)
Troy Brown (3.7)
Cam Reddish (4.5)
Jalen McDaniels (3.3)
Torrey Craig (0.6!)
Gabe Vincent (2.6)
Max Strus (4.5)
Lu Dort (3.1)
Jaden McDaniels (2.6)
Jordan Clarkson (4.3)
Tyrese Maxey (4.4)
Kevin Porter (3.3)
Darius Garland (4.9)
Zach LaVine (2.9)
Jaylen Brown (3.6)
Dejounte Murray (3.6)

Teams should not draft anyone under 2, and should feel very confident passing on anyone under 3.

Anyway, from this you can see some all-star top 10 hits, Brown and Garland. Garland played like 4-5 games, so I don't even count that.

I think we are coming to the same conclusions here. Like I said, for me, I use DBPM and BPM as a filter. I actually put most emphasis on DBPM, then total BPM. My rationale is most players won't play in the NBA if they can't defend, except the truly elite scorers.

I played with the season filter on sport-reference for CBB. To answer my own question of any NBA player who was a star or had success with a BPM <2 and DBPM <1 (had to be eligible for PPG leaderboard), I realized not only weren't there stars, there were barely any players. So I looked through the results of the first 1100 player seasons looking for any players that I recognized from NBA. After 1100 I stopped because I had them sorted by total points scored and odds of anymore showing up were quite low imo. Anyways I found:

Kevin Murphy
Marcus Thorton
Torrey Craig
Johnny O'Bryant
Bryce McGowens
Blake Wesley.

Then I looked at <1 DBPM but >6 BPM (had to be eligible for PPG leaderboard) and out of 206 player season there were (again just looking for NBA players):
Jimmer
Dame
Doug McBuckets
Alec Burks
Jabari Parker
Cam Thomas
John Collins
Nik Staukas
Reggie Jackson
John Jenkins
Rodney Hood
Tyler Johnson
Delladova
Kyle Kuzma

Then I looked at >3 DBPM and >10 BPM (had to qualify for PPG Leaderboard) and again there were 206 player seasons but I only typed the first 100 because, well, there were a lot of NBA players there:
Kemba Walker
Norris Cole
KAT
Zion
Frank Kaminsky
Robert Williams
Mikal Bridges
Brogdon
D'Lo
Josh Hart
Keita Baites-Diop
Jevon Carter
Ben Simmons
Brandon CLarke
Obi Toppin
Tyler Zeller
Derrick White
Jae Crowder
Deandre Hunter
Anthony Davis
Kelly Olynyk
Marcus Smart
Evan Mobley
PJ Washington
KCP
Buddy Hield
Cam Johnson
Gary Harris
DOnovan Mitchell
Lonzo Ball
and about another 30 in the second 100

So does DBPM or BPM guarantee success? Hell no. But it almost guarantees failure. Coming out of college over the last 12 seasons, for the <2 BPM & <1DBPM there is literally almost no chance (less than 0.5%) of an NBA career. For <1 DBPM but >6 BPM, there is about a 7% chance of an NBA career, with Lillard being a legit superstar. But for >3DBPM and >10BPM coming out of college there is a greater than 30% chance of a player who will get a contract beyond their rookie deal.


So all this to say DBPM and BPM doesn't tell you who is going to be an NBA player. It tells you who isn't an NBA player.

If you're not a star offensive player you need defense to stick around the league. My only issue is dBPM can get inflated by defensive rebounds. I tend to ignore defensive rebounding numbers for bigs as it can be system related. Bosh got a ton of them when he was a Raptor despite being a meh rebounder simply because someone had to grab them.

[mademan]

I dont think we take Bilal tbh. I think the pressure of needing better fitting players will be too much. Unless we actually go in a rebuilding direction (trade Siakam) or move up with an OG trade that gets us a guard, i just dont see them taking a guy who will sparsely play next year while having no pick the year after.

Probably not the right way to look at it, but ultimately, some dudes FO jobs are gonna be on the line. I just see no way they bring back a similar roster and take a project. We only take coulibaly if there are massive changes coming, imo

[Kevin Willis]

Lively is moving and might end up in the lottery.

[BoyzNTheHood]

Lively is moving and might end up in the lottery.

I’ve been saying it. Dallas is perfect.

[ArthurVandelay]

Lively is moving and might end up in the lottery.

I noted that a while back. Same thing likely happening with him as Mark Williams last year. Both were mocked in 20s in April and then rose to lottery by June.

Dallas, Orlando, OKC, New Orleans all have a use/need for a C like him.

[PhilBlackson]

Lively is moving and might end up in the lottery.

I noted that a while back. Same thing likely happening with him as Mark Williams last year. Both were mocked in 20s in April and then rose to lottery by June.

Dallas, Orlando, OKC, New Orleans all have a use/need for a C like him.

Don't like him that much in NOP if Zion is healthy, they need a Myles Turner type of C so "Point Zion" can attack the paint BUT that's a massive IF Zion can stay healthy. Personally I didn't think he would coming into the league and everything I've seen so far gives me no hope that he will, he simply doesn't have the level of commitment to his diet/health but anywaaays....

Of course he makes sense in DAL since Powell is smaller yet is a lob threat for Luka as he would be but give them way more defence so I like it there, ORL could be a decent fit too - not sure I'd use it on Lively though when they already have WC Jr doing a decent job with Bol Bol looking for more time and they need shooting (ie/ Hawkins, Dick).

I'm doubtful Presti does it because he likes the Long Boiz even more than Masai (no cause for pause)...so I'd just personally be shocked if he passes on Miller & Bilal to take Lively BUT this would be just as a fit, my favorite landing spot for him if they did it because OKC's rim protection could be ridiculous with him & Chet. If OKC suddenly had elite rim protection & Chet takes off at some point as a scorer, OKC could be a problem within a few years. But likewise they could be if they got something out of Miller or Coulibaly which is why I think they take one of them instead lol but that's my take on Lively's fit -- I think if he fell far enough, could be a blessing for the Warriors.

[grant101]

Lively is moving and might end up in the lottery.

I noted that a while back. Same thing likely happening with him as Mark Williams last year. Both were mocked in 20s in April and then rose to lottery by June.

Dallas, Orlando, OKC, New Orleans all have a use/need for a C like him.

I'd be surprised if he wasn't in the lottery at this point. If I was confident he'd get minutes on this team, I wouldn't mind if he was our pick. But, our FO seems sold on Koloko for some reason (and we admittedly have much bigger holes)

[ATLTimekeeper]

If you're not a star offensive player you need defense to stick around the league. My only issue is dBPM can get inflated by defensive rebounds. I tend to ignore defensive rebounding numbers for bigs as it can be system related. Bosh got a ton of them when he was a Raptor despite being a meh rebounder simply because someone had to grab them.

with dBPM I think it's fairly accurate at placing defensive players in the NBA. There's some exceptions like KAT, Jaxson Hayes on the higher end, and then some guards that are just physically unable to compete at the NBA level. Guys like Seth Curry, Jordan Adams, Jordan Poole come to mind as high DBPM players that are turnstiles in the NBA for very obvious reasons.

So for bigs, I think it might bias to athleticism and hide bball IQ issues, and with smaller players it might bias to athletic/physicality issues.

[DG88]

I dont think we take Bilal tbh. I think the pressure of needing better fitting players will be too much. Unless we actually go in a rebuilding direction (trade Siakam) or move up with an OG trade that gets us a guard, i just dont see them taking a guy who will sparsely play next year while having no pick the year after.

Probably not the right way to look at it, but ultimately, some dudes FO jobs are gonna be on the line. I just see no way they bring back a similar roster and take a project. We only take coulibaly if there are massive changes coming, imo

That's never been their philosophy. Dan Tolzman said so in a recent article, that they go for the best talent even if it's not a positional fit. I don't think jobs are on the line they all got re-signed 2 years ago to extensions.

[ItsDanger]

I dont think we take Bilal tbh. I think the pressure of needing better fitting players will be too much. Unless we actually go in a rebuilding direction (trade Siakam) or move up with an OG trade that gets us a guard, i just dont see them taking a guy who will sparsely play next year while having no pick the year after.

Probably not the right way to look at it, but ultimately, some dudes FO jobs are gonna be on the line. I just see no way they bring back a similar roster and take a project. We only take coulibaly if there are massive changes coming, imo

If the roster is more or less the same, there aren't many minutes available for Coulibaly. And yes, jobs should be on the line given recent performance of this front office. Don't care what the public perception is, the reality of the business world says otherwise.

[Mark_83]

Lively is moving and might end up in the lottery.

I’ve been saying it. Dallas is perfect.

They did have Tyson Chandler during their championship run. Lively is like Chandler with potential stretch ability.

[gbball]

Digging around Big West conference is a sign of desperation. Hawaii? Really Bobby?

ya, it's not like anyone from a smaller school ever worked out.

Imagine thinking that working out a bunch of prospects in all ranges is a bad thing...

The Raptors operate in a pretty methodical way and do their homework. I agree with leaving no stone unturned. That's how you find gems.

[gbball]

I wonder who'd be looking at drafting if we didn't trade for Poeltl. He really filled a hole on this team for the foreseeable future. Now we can likely focus on filling in the holes at the guard position.

[HumbleRen]

I wonder who'd be looking at drafting if we didn't trade for Poeltl. He really filled a hole on this team for the foreseeable future. Now we can likely focus on filling in the holes at the guard position.

If we didn't trade for Poeltl, we'd have a top 10 pick right now. Doubt they would use it on a center.

[gbball]

I wonder who'd be looking at drafting if we didn't trade for Poeltl. He really filled a hole on this team for the foreseeable future. Now we can likely focus on filling in the holes at the guard position.

If we didn't trade for Poeltl, we'd have a top 10 pick right now. Doubt they would use it on a center.

If we were picking 10th, I'd still want Coulibaly. He has a chance to be the best player in the draft for a team that's patient.

Edit: top 10 is probably too much of a reach for him. So I'm looking at the bright side. Had we had a top 5 pick in Giannis' year do we risk taking him that high? We're in a perfect draft range to have a good shot a high upside project. Not too high to take him, not so low that there's a high chance of missing him.

We had two major holes on the team, now it's just one. It doesn't matter how you get the pieces, so long as you get them. Masai thinks Peoltl can be a starting Center on a championship team. Now we have a chance to add a high ceiling 3 level scorer with athleticism and defense.

A player like Coulibaly will bring some much needed optimism to the team.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Nobody wants to work out for them so they're looking at circus freaks.

Being Hawaiian/Indigenous, old and short doesn't make someone a circus freak. They look at a lot of players every year, most of them won't make the NBA. Some might make their Gleague team or summer league. This kid overcame some crazy odds to make it from a northernmost community in Alaska to play division 1 basketball. Most people would look at this workout as a feel good story, not an opportunity to take cheap shots at the player and the front office.

It would be silly to overlook players possibly available in the undrafted market.

It sure would. That's why you bring in players projected to be UDFA's who don't suck as much as Hepa with the limited amount of workouts you can schedule. The guy is 23 years old went up against awful competition and all he could do was hit 3's and grab boards solidly.

And all those guys are circus freak prospects by NBA standards, nobody brought race into this but you ATL. Go cuddle with them.

[mademan]

I dont think we take Bilal tbh. I think the pressure of needing better fitting players will be too much. Unless we actually go in a rebuilding direction (trade Siakam) or move up with an OG trade that gets us a guard, i just dont see them taking a guy who will sparsely play next year while having no pick the year after.

Probably not the right way to look at it, but ultimately, some dudes FO jobs are gonna be on the line. I just see no way they bring back a similar roster and take a project. We only take coulibaly if there are massive changes coming, imo

That's never been their philosophy. Dan Tolzman said so in a recent article, that they go for the best talent even if it's not a positional fit. I don't think jobs are on the line they all got re-signed 2 years ago to extensions.

eh, ill believe it if i see it. The title gave them a lot of leeway, but eventually, there will be expectations again. We trade our pick last year and got a project in Koloko (who wouldnt play on any team with an average C rotation), missed the playoffs and then drafted another project who wont be a guy for at least a couple seasons?

Ya i just dont see it. If it was a 2nd first rounder, sure. If the Raps went to a youth movement and traded Siakam, sure. But if we're bringing back our 3 forwards that we start, i just see no way we add another forward project. You can have an overarching philosophy, but in practice, this is a hard pick to make. And projects are inherently riskier (lower floor, higher ceiling). Besides Scottie, we havent really hit on the draft since like 2017. There's an entire scouting department and Masai got his name as a scout...they cant keep missing.