The Official 2023 Draft Thread

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Zards... You just cherry picked 18 of the best out of 130 players taken from 8-20 in 10 drafts! & you didn't even include SGA. Oh, & of course you didn't include Jerome Robinson! Trading down, one would also have "miss out on the opportunity to draft" Jerome.

Yes, I cherry-picked, PIF. But isn’t that exactly what you do when you give us your lists of the good players the Zards could have drafted over the years if they had only traded down? I don’t recall you ever naming the awful players that they might have drafted if they had traded down....

Any more than someone would name the awful players they might have picked if they'd traded up!

...Yes, good players can be found when you’re drafting between 21-60 even an occasional all-star or all-NBA player. But most of the players drafted in that range turn out to be role players…at best....

Most players drafted in any range past 1-3 turn out to be role players, Zards.

......your chances/odds of drafting an all-star or all-NBA player are infinitely better when you’re drafting in the top 20. ...

Top 20...?
We're talking about trading down from #8 -- you might very well still have 1 pick in the top 20. In fact, any higher (say 7 or 6) you might get back two picks in the top 20.

In any case, I don't think you are right. Here are the 2020 all stars divided into 3 groups based on where they were picked:

A. picked from 1-3 (hence irrelevant to this discussion):
LeBron James -1
Anthony Davis -1
Ben Simmons - 1
Brandon Ingram - 2
Jayson Tatum - 3
Luka Dončić - 3
James Harden - 3
Joel Embiid - 3

B. picked between 4 & 10:
Chris Paul - 4
Damian Lillard - 6
Russell Westbrook - 8
Kemba Walker - 9

C. picked from 11 down:
Domantas Sabonis - 11
Giannis Antetokounmpo - 13
Donovan Mitchell – 13
Devin Booker - 13
Bam Adebayo - 14
Kawhi Leonard - 15
Kyle Lowry - 24
Rudy Gobert - 27
Pascal Siakam - 27
Jimmy Butler – 30
Khris Middleton - 38
Nikola Jokić - 41

Half 10 or above, half 11 or below.

How about this -- do you have a higher chance of picking the MVP if you have the #8 pick over the #41 pick?
Whoa -- how about if I have the #1 pick. Can't think of an MVP in the last dozen years who was a #1 pick. Clearly I should trade the #1 for the #3 & the #41.

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Depends on the precision of your scouting vs ability to develop talent. PIF is hunting with a shotgun, others are arguing a sniper rifle has better range and accuracy for hitting a high value target. ...

Last year I would have liked to trade back from 10 for 17 & 26. That's moving from a sniper rifle to a shotgun?

Depends on the precision of your scouting vs ability to develop talent...

Not an empty set, but I do think this is worth challenging, b/c of the phrase "depends on."

There is, pure & simple, an extremely large area of the unknowable. & a significant area of pure randomness. Even in picks 1-3, where you'd expect by far the highest certainty of outcome, there's a complete bust well more than 20% of the time.

As to "precision of scouting"... I don't buy it: they are scouting unfinished products!

[doclinkin]

Depends on the precision of your scouting vs ability to develop talent. PIF is hunting with a shotgun, others are arguing a sniper rifle has better range and accuracy for hitting a high value target. ...

Last year I would have liked to trade back from 10 for 17 & 26. That's moving from a sniper rifle to a shotgun?

Hah! Twice a month you orchestrate a potential six player draft with various trade downs and UDFA's. No point playing coy about it now.

Depends on the precision of your scouting vs ability to develop talent...

Not an empty set, but I do think this is worth challenging, b/c of the phrase "depends on."

There is, pure & simple, an extremely large area of the unknowable. & a significant area of pure randomness. Even in picks 1-3, where you'd expect by far the highest certainty of outcome, there's a complete bust well more than 20% of the time.

As to "precision of scouting"... I don't buy it: they are scouting unfinished products!

And yet there are execs and front offices who are better at it than others.

Interestingly by the measure of this site Tommy Sheppard has a pretty good score, if he is credited for some of Ernie's picks. The Wiz score is lifted by Garrison Mathews, Trevor Booker, Jordan Goodwin, Beal and others (Danuel House Jr) who outplayed their draft position. Where teams like LAL draft great, then trade away their gold for re-treads. That's got to be maddening to their scouting department.

If we are looking for front offices to poach, I'd look at the director of scouting for the Lakers... ANNND Google says nope: Jesse Buss.

I mean maybe he would leave his family team to trade up in title from Asst GM, except that he is a co-owner of the whole dang thang. Oh well.

[payitforward]

Depends on the precision of your scouting vs ability to develop talent. PIF is hunting with a shotgun, others are arguing a sniper rifle has better range and accuracy for hitting a high value target. ...

Last year I would have liked to trade back from 10 for 17 & 26. That's moving from a sniper rifle to a shotgun?

Hah! Twice a month you orchestrate a potential six player draft with various trade downs and UDFA's. No point playing coy about it now.

I don't know about twice a month -- but for sure I try to do it at some point every pre-draft month! It's fun -- you should try it, you'll like it!

Depends on the precision of your scouting vs ability to develop talent...

Not an empty set, but I do think this is worth challenging, b/c of the phrase "depends on."

There is, pure & simple, an extremely large area of the unknowable. & a significant area of pure randomness. Even in picks 1-3, where you'd expect by far the highest certainty of outcome, there's a complete bust well more than 20% of the time.

As to "precision of scouting"... I don't buy it: they are scouting unfinished products!

And yet there are execs and front offices who are better at it than others.

I think it's probably more that there are some negative outliers. But, in our case, at least over Tommy's four drafts, I don't think it's been bad "scouting." More like bad decision processes -- Rui, Johnny, the '21 tradeaway of the Lakers pick, & under-valuing the importance of R2 decisions being the leading examples.

Interestingly by the measure of this site Tommy Sheppard has a pretty good score, if he is credited for some of Ernie's picks. The Wiz score is lifted by Garrison Mathews, Trevor Booker, Jordan Goodwin, Beal and others (Danuel House Jr) who outplayed their draft position.....

I question the weighting. Obviously, our overall rank is brought up by our undrafteds.
But... for example, Danuel House played exactly 1 minute for us!

That said, you know who I miss? I miss Sheldon Mac -- I wonder how many here even recall the name...?

If we are looking for front offices to poach, I'd look at the director of scouting for the Lakers... ANNND Google says nope: Jesse Buss.

I mean maybe he would leave his family team to trade up in title from Asst GM, except that he is a co-owner of the whole dang thang. Oh well.

google Jesse -- especially pics. Be hard to convince me he's the reason their scouts are effective. OTOH, he scouts the Mexican sex bomb actresses extremely effectively!

[dckingsfan]

I don't think it's been bad "scouting." More like bad decision processes...

Cutting to the chase...

[DCZards]

That said, you know who I miss? I miss Sheldon Mac -- I wonder how many here even recall the name...?

You mean Shelvin Mack?

[doclinkin]

google Jesse -- especially pics. Be hard to convince me he's the reason their scouts are effective. OTOH, he scouts the Mexican sex bomb actresses extremely effectively!

Ryan West then. Jerry West's son. Laker's director of player personnel. I encountered a couple articles on him when hunting info on his dad. He apparently was the talent spotter that tabbed Jordan Clarkson with the 46th pick. Hire that guy, he's been trained to spot talent since birth.

Looks like he left them in 2019 though. Currently working for the Pistons. Hmm.

[Endless Loop]

Half 10 or above, half 11 or below.

Just to point out the obvious:
There are 10 picks 10 or above
There are 50 picks 11 or below, PLUS an infinite number of undrafted free agents.

So if it's all about having more picks, statistically speaking you'd need a ton more picks below 10 to match the value of the top picks.

[gambitx777]

google Jesse -- especially pics. Be hard to convince me he's the reason their scouts are effective. OTOH, he scouts the Mexican sex bomb actresses extremely effectively!

Ryan West then. Jerry West's son. Laker's director of player personnel. I encountered a couple articles on him when hunting info on his dad. He apparently was the talent spotter that tabbed Jordan Clarkson with the 46th pick. Hire that guy, he's been trained to spot talent since birth.

Looks like he left them in 2019 though. Currently working for the Pistons. Hmm.

Two of wests sons have been middle level executives and scounts jonnie and Ryan
Jonnie was vp of pro personal for GS
Ryan's been a scout several places it wouldn't be bad to bring them both in and make one gm and the other head of something.

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[gambitx777]

My boy Grant Nelson returning to school and I'm really upset about it.

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[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

[gambitx777]

Can someone smarter than me tell me why I can always see the posted tweeta. Some times but most of the time it's just a code on the tweet brackets. ?

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[payitforward]

That said, you know who I miss? I miss Sheldon Mac -- I wonder how many here even recall the name...?

You mean Shelvin Mack?

No, although I liked Mack.
I meant Sheldon who started out as McClellan -- https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1627815/career.

He played 287 minutes for us in 2016-17, then he was injured in a '17 pre-season game. Bounced around a little bit thereafter. These days he's playing pro ball in Puerto Rico & averaging 20+ points a game.

[gambitx777]

Some low key late seconds or UDF for us.

Jake Stephens super Sr from Chattanooga. 7-0 280 mountain of a man. Good rim protector and shoots 40% from 3.

Nadir Hifi 6-3 guard from France 16 points a game, decent handles 46 % shooting and 34 from 3 at 20 years old is an interesting prospect.

Zvonimir Ivisic- Croatia 19 advanced stats like him ok enough. 7-3 has a nice shooting touch.

Jaylen Clark - from ucla. Decent athlete. Good defense, decent shooting percentages, advanced stats are kind to him. Good rebounder for 6-5.

Ricky Council IV Arkansas can get buckets gives offs glenn rice Jr vibes with out the nut job qualities.

Jazian Gortman from OTE? Hard to find stats on him but he's 20 young can jump and move, good speed and a nice looking jumper.

Azuolas Tubelis from Arizona. Good size at 6-11, talented scorer, really smooth handles. Almost reminds you of a baby jotic.

Malachi Smith Gonzaga, 23 but was a star at Chattanooga but his number fell off after transfer. Advanced stats and percentages are still good.

Justin Powell from 27 colleges lol Washington state. Looked good at auburn as a freshman, **** the bed at Tennessee and then came back and looked pretty good at WS to turn the so slump around. Knock down low volume shooter, really good 3pt shooter.

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[joshuacf]

Isaiah Wong - Good shooter and scorer. Could turn into a Jordan MccRae-like bucket off of the bench.

Keyonte Johnson - Was on his way to being a FRP before the heart condition. Athletic, can shoot.

Emoni Bates - Lot of shot making ability, good handle. Still only 19 years old and doesn't turn 20 until next January. Very rare for players that young to have two years of college experience. Would likely need a decent amount of time in the G-League.

Adama Sanogo - good 3pt and FT shooter for his size, can rebound, can score inside. Probably not going to be more than a 3rd center in the NBA. In my opinion, he's the best 2nd round big in the draft at this point.

[payitforward]

Half 10 or above, half 11 or below.

Just to point out the obvious:
There are 10 picks 10 or above
There are 50 picks 11 or below, PLUS an infinite number of undrafted free agents.

So if it's all about having more picks, statistically speaking you'd need a ton more picks below 10 to match the value of the top picks.

In your last sentence: if by "so," you mean something like "and therefore," then you'd need to supply some evidence & some logic to support your conclusion.

Thing is... don't waste your time trying.
It just isn't true. It isn't even close to being true!

Let's look at the 10 drafts from 2011-2020.

Of the 70 players drafted from 4-10, how many turned out to be really good? I.e. either stars or at least close to being stars? Here's my list:

Kemba Walker,
Damian Lillard,
Lauri Markkanen (based on last season only),
De'Aaron Fox,
JJJ,
Trae Young,
Mikal Bridges,
Darius Garland

8 players of the 70 who were picked from 4-10 have turned out to be really good.
Feel free to take a look at those drafts yourself. I don't think I've missed anybody.

Here's a second list of players from the same 10 drafts who also turned out to be really good? -- either stars, or at least close to being stars:

Klay Thompson,
Steven Adams,
Zach LaVine,
Myles Turner,
Devin Booker,
Damontas Sabonis,
Donovan Mitchell,
Bam Adebayo,
Shai Gilgeous Alexander,
Miles Bridges,
Michael Porter, Jr.,
Cameron Johnson,
Devin Vassell,
Troy Haliburton

That's a list of 14 players all of whom were taken in the very same 10 drafts as the 8 on the previous list.

All 8 on the first list were taken in the 70 picks from 4-10.
All 14 of the players on the 2d list were taken from 11-14.

Btw, I'm sure some of you would have included Tyler Herro on that second list -- taking it to 15.

So much for your point, Loop. Sorry about that

[Jay81]

Bilal #2 on yoda

[NatP4]

Bilal #2 on yoda

[Rafael122]

Bilal at 8 is a tough sell for me.

[NatP4]

Bilal at 8 is a tough sell for me.

Based on the mocks? Or compared to the group that is projected to be available around 8?