2023 Draft Discussion Part 5

[Rapsfan07]

Nbadraft has Colby Jones pick like 50.?? Can we drop Flynn and get this guy? I'm a fan. Also pass on George and sidy for pick 13.

I can assure you that Jones will be long gone by 50. But I do agree on passing on George and Sidy at #13

[BoyzNTheHood]

A lot of people are trashing on Poeltl forgetting that it’s unlikely there are 10, much less 14 players that will be better than him in next years draft. You re-sign the asset and if it comes down to it make a deal next season. He’s a top 10 Centre in a 30 team league. He has value.

[Rapsfan07]

Who was the guy that was getting mad at people for thinking Trey Alexander would be available in the second round lol.

He wasn't getting 1st round buzz so returning back to school was a great move for him. Should be able to secure a 1st round pick next year.

I believe he probably will.

But as I said, not a first rounder this year.

[BoyzNTheHood]

And he’ll be better than plenty of the first rounders taken this year

[Rapsfan07]

I didn’t see your post. Got a link?

Again, DBPM and BPM doesn’t ensure success but it pretty much guarantees who won’t succeed. That’s the key for me, it’s a filter. And like everything else there are exceptions to any rule, like Zach Lavine.

So any other stars or even 5+ year starters out there with low DBPM (<1) or BPM (<2) numbers?

I’m genuinely interested if anyone can find real players versus opinions.

Low DBPM has some very good players, still.

I didn't look at top 10, but here's just BPM all-stars:

NBA stars drafted beyond pick #10 draft year BPM, I bolded everyone under 8:

Siakam, 8.2
MItchell 11.2
Haliburton 11.7
Adebayo 8.2
SGA 9
Sabonis 8.2
LaVine 2.9
FVV 10.2
Jimmy Butler 9.4
Khris Middleton 6.2
Jarrett Allen 5.2
Devin Booker 9.4
D. Murray 3.6
Draymond Green 12.1
Vucevic 9.4
Kawhi Leonard 9.2
Klay Thompson 9.8
Isaiah Thomas 8.1

Worth noting that Khris Middleton was over 8 in his sophomore year and had some knee issues in his junior (draft) year. I think Jrue Holiday would likely qualify under 8, because he was pretty meh at UCLA. My thoughts are pretty obvious. If you're hunting for an all-star later on in the draft you need to look at >8s and consider Zach LaVine/D. Murray types as flukes.

Here's just solid players:

I went through every NBA player playing over 20 minutes a night (242 players, well over 100 NCAA players since they've counted BPM). Here's how many had a draft year BPM under 5.

Austin Rivers (4)
Troy Brown (3.7)
Cam Reddish (4.5)
Jalen McDaniels (3.3)
Torrey Craig (0.6!)
Gabe Vincent (2.6)
Max Strus (4.5)
Lu Dort (3.1)
Jaden McDaniels (2.6)
Jordan Clarkson (4.3)
Tyrese Maxey (4.4)
Kevin Porter (3.3)
Darius Garland (4.9)
Zach LaVine (2.9)
Jaylen Brown (3.6)
Dejounte Murray (3.6)

Teams should not draft anyone under 2, and should feel very confident passing on anyone under 3.

Anyway, from this you can see some all-star top 10 hits, Brown and Garland. Garland played like 4-5 games, so I don't even count that.

I think we are coming to the same conclusions here. Like I said, for me, I use DBPM and BPM as a filter. I actually put most emphasis on DBPM, then total BPM. My rationale is most players won't play in the NBA if they can't defend, except the truly elite scorers.

I played with the season filter on sport-reference for CBB. To answer my own question of any NBA player who was a star or had success with a BPM <2 and DBPM <1 (had to be eligible for PPG leaderboard), I realized not only weren't there stars, there were barely any players. So I looked through the results of the first 1100 player seasons looking for any players that I recognized from NBA. After 1100 I stopped because I had them sorted by total points scored and odds of anymore showing up were quite low imo. Anyways I found:

Kevin Murphy
Marcus Thorton
Torrey Craig
Johnny O'Bryant
Bryce McGowens
Blake Wesley.

Then I looked at <1 DBPM but >6 BPM (had to be eligible for PPG leaderboard) and out of 206 player season there were (again just looking for NBA players):
Jimmer
Dame
Doug McBuckets
Alec Burks
Jabari Parker
Cam Thomas
John Collins
Nik Staukas
Reggie Jackson
John Jenkins
Rodney Hood
Tyler Johnson
Delladova
Kyle Kuzma

Then I looked at >3 DBPM and >10 BPM (had to qualify for PPG Leaderboard) and again there were 206 player seasons but I only typed the first 100 because, well, there were a lot of NBA players there:
Kemba Walker
Norris Cole
KAT
Zion
Frank Kaminsky
Robert Williams
Mikal Bridges
Brogdon
D'Lo
Josh Hart
Keita Baites-Diop
Jevon Carter
Ben Simmons
Brandon CLarke
Obi Toppin
Tyler Zeller
Derrick White
Jae Crowder
Deandre Hunter
Anthony Davis
Kelly Olynyk
Marcus Smart
Evan Mobley
PJ Washington
KCP
Buddy Hield
Cam Johnson
Gary Harris
DOnovan Mitchell
Lonzo Ball
and about another 30 in the second 100

So does DBPM or BPM guarantee success? Hell no. But it almost guarantees failure. Coming out of college over the last 12 seasons, for the <2 BPM & <1DBPM there is literally almost no chance (less than 0.5%) of an NBA career. For <1 DBPM but >6 BPM, there is about a 7% chance of an NBA career, with Lillard being a legit superstar. But for >3DBPM and >10BPM coming out of college there is a greater than 30% chance of a player who will get a contract beyond their rookie deal.


So all this to say DBPM and BPM doesn't tell you who is going to be an NBA player. It tells you who isn't an NBA player.

Very well done. I agree completely with your conclusion.

[HumbleRen]

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yeah nah, that **** is busted lol

[Rapsfan07]

Lively is moving and might end up in the lottery.

I noted that a while back. Same thing likely happening with him as Mark Williams last year. Both were mocked in 20s in April and then rose to lottery by June.

Dallas, Orlando, OKC, New Orleans all have a use/need for a C like him.

Don't like him that much in NOP if Zion is healthy, they need a Myles Turner type of C so "Point Zion" can attack the paint BUT that's a massive IF Zion can stay healthy. Personally I didn't think he would coming into the league and everything I've seen so far gives me no hope that he will, he simply doesn't have the level of commitment to his diet/health but anywaaays....

Of course he makes sense in DAL since Powell is smaller yet is a lob threat for Luka as he would be but give them way more defence so I like it there, ORL could be a decent fit too - not sure I'd use it on Lively though when they already have WC Jr doing a decent job with Bol Bol looking for more time and they need shooting (ie/ Hawkins, Dick).

I'm doubtful Presti does it because he likes the Long Boiz even more than Masai (no cause for pause)...so I'd just personally be shocked if he passes on Miller & Bilal to take Lively BUT this would be just as a fit, my favorite landing spot for him if they did it because OKC's rim protection could be ridiculous with him & Chet. If OKC suddenly had elite rim protection & Chet takes off at some point as a scorer, OKC could be a problem within a few years. But likewise they could be if they got something out of Miller or Coulibaly which is why I think they take one of them instead lol but that's my take on Lively's fit -- I think if he fell far enough, could be a blessing for the Warriors.

I expect him to wind up in the lottery. I can't see how he makes it past Dallas at best or OKC at worst.

[S.W.A.N]

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I like everything about Bufkin except his lack of athleticism. His slight build and lack of vertical will limit his potential. I see Jordan Poole with good defense, which is a very good player, but he's not an elite shooter and he doesn't have the athleticism of a Donovan Mitchell.

I'm not too concerned with him not jumping out of the gym. He's got really good height and length at the position and he finishes inside at an insane rate 70%. Next level will be harder but that's a good indicator already. He's got to knock down shots, that will open his game a lot

His finishing rate really is the special sauce. Everything else about him screams competent role player.

Jordan Poole with good defense would be a fantastic result with 13th pick.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

A lot of people are trashing on Poeltl forgetting that it’s unlikely there are 10, much less 14 players that will be better than him in next years draft. You re-sign the asset and if it comes down to it make a deal next season. He’s a top 10 Centre in a 30 team league. He has value.

We can S&T but as a fit it has to do with fielding two bigs who can't shoot well. Barnes needs to take a giant leap in the coming years to make it work otherwise the offense really needs to be built around some kind of inside outside game with Barnes and Poeltl while the PG SG and SF are all top 50 three point shooters in the league. You're not winning anything with a Barnes Poeltl frontcourt until Barnes dramatically improves his shooting or you surround them with absolutely lights out shooters there's no room for mediocrity in the shooting department from the other players if those two are on the court together. It would be like playing Draymond and Looney together, Kerr can get away with it because of Curry Thompson and Wiggins.

What this does is leave little wiggle room for the type of traits that need to absolutely be present in the other 3 players we field and this makes team building even more complicated. Which is why a stretch 5 would be nice but I guess Masai is going to wait on Koloko.

This team is still so far away from being able to understand the direction it needs to go because Masai is banking on player improvement and development to a borderline insane degree.

[bboyskinnylegs]

A lot of people are trashing on Poeltl forgetting that it’s unlikely there are 10, much less 14 players that will be better than him in next years draft. You re-sign the asset and if it comes down to it make a deal next season. He’s a top 10 Centre in a 30 team league. He has value.

Of course if we can retain him on a reasonable deal, we will, but does he still re-sign if we make a major Pascal trade for rebuilding assets at the draft? We have to be prepared for any possibilities

[Bruin]

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yeah nah, that **** is busted lol

God that is disgusting lol. Entire form needs work. Then again, if his shot was good right now he’d probably go 2nd overall

[WuTang_CMB]

theres a reason why he didnt do his pro day

[PhilBlackson]

I like everything about Bufkin except his lack of athleticism. His slight build and lack of vertical will limit his potential. I see Jordan Poole with good defense, which is a very good player, but he's not an elite shooter and he doesn't have the athleticism of a Donovan Mitchell.

I'm not too concerned with him not jumping out of the gym. He's got really good height and length at the position and he finishes inside at an insane rate 70%. Next level will be harder but that's a good indicator already. He's got to knock down shots, that will open his game a lot

His finishing rate really is the special sauce. Everything else about him screams competent role player.

Jordan Poole with good defense would be a fantastic result with 13th pick.

Bufkin’s handles aren’t close.

[Yallbecrazy]

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I like everything about Bufkin except his lack of athleticism. His slight build and lack of vertical will limit his potential. I see Jordan Poole with good defense, which is a very good player, but he's not an elite shooter and he doesn't have the athleticism of a Donovan Mitchell.

I'm not too concerned with him not jumping out of the gym. He's got really good height and length at the position and he finishes inside at an insane rate 70%. Next level will be harder but that's a good indicator already. He's got to knock down shots, that will open his game a lot

Does anyone have his contested rim finishing % in the halfcourt?

[Rapsfan07]

So far this how I think it shakes out

1. Spurs - Wemby
2. CHAR - Miller
3. POR - Scoot (keeping it)
4. HOU - Amen
5. DET - Hendricks
6. ORL - Ausur
7. Indy - Jarace
8. Wash - Whitmore
9. Utah - Dick
10. Dal - Cason
11. ORL - NSJ
12. OKC - Leonard M
13. TOR - Bufkin or Couli

No Black ?? NSJ to Orlando ???

This would be a wild draft lol.

oops lol

Black to ORL @ 11

NSJ to New Orleans

1. SPURS - Wemby
2. CHAR - Miller
3. POR - Scoot (keeping it)
4. HOU - Amen
5. DET - Whitmore
6. ORL - Ausur
7. INDY - Hendricks
8. WASH - Black
9. UTAH - Dick/Walker
10. DAL - Lively (I think this is likeliest pick to be traded)
11. ORL - NSJ/George/Wallace/Bufkin
12. OKC - Leonard M/Lively
13. TOR - Bufkin/Wallace(I am not a fan of Coulibaly in the lotto)
14. NOLA - George/NSJ/Wallace

Obviously not everyone is going to make into the lottery. This board of mine takes into account team need and BPA, as best I could possibly reconcile the two. If Dallas trades that pick, who gets taken there will largely depend on who that team needs, though they could take BPA into more of an account than I might think. Either way, I see Wallace as the big faller, though I still believe he's a lottery talent and NSJ is still available at 14 or 15, I believe someone will take him there at the absolute worst.

Leonard I have in the lotter ONLY because he's the kind of player OKC likes to take. If he isn't taken by OKC at 12, I think he ends up between 15-20.

Lively is also a huge riser for me. If Dallas doesn't trade the pick, I think he could be in play as early as 10 but if he makes it past them, I can't see him making it past OKC.

If Hendricks doesn't go 5th to Detroit, he's going to go 7th to Indiana. Perfect fit for them and Orlando will not take him, or at least, I would be surprised if they do. I expect Orlando to make a move if the draft plays out like this. Not enough minutes in the backcourt for Fultz, George/NSJ, Anthony, Suggs, Ausar & Harris. But they're already set in their frontcourt so...seems like they'll have to go with a backcourt player.

[Rapsfan07]

I like everything about Bufkin except his lack of athleticism. His slight build and lack of vertical will limit his potential. I see Jordan Poole with good defense, which is a very good player, but he's not an elite shooter and he doesn't have the athleticism of a Donovan Mitchell.

I'm not too concerned with him not jumping out of the gym. He's got really good height and length at the position and he finishes inside at an insane rate 70%. Next level will be harder but that's a good indicator already. He's got to knock down shots, that will open his game a lot

His finishing rate really is the special sauce. Everything else about him screams competent role player.

Jordan Poole with good defense would be a fantastic result with 13th pick.

Yep. I think Poole with good defense is an all-star/borderline all-star at worst.

IMO, Bufkin has to be the guy at #13

[Rapsfan07]

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yeah nah, that **** is busted lol

Holy... that's a mess man.

[HumbleRen]

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Who do you think it is ? OKC/Orlando or Raps.

[BoyzNTheHood]

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Who do you think it is ? OKC/Orlando or Raps.

Us or OKC

[HumbleRen]

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Who do you think it is ? OKC/Orlando or Raps.

Us or OKC

I think so too.