The Official 2023 Draft Thread

[DCZards]

Let's look at the 10 drafts from 2011-2020.

Of the 70 players drafted from 4-10, how many turned out to be really good? I.e. either stars or at least close to being stars? Here's my list:

Kemba Walker,
Damian Lillard,
Lauri Markkanen (based on last season only),
De'Aaron Fox,
JJJ,
Trae Young,
Mikal Bridges,
Darius Garland

8 players of the 70 who were picked from 4-10 have turned out to be really good.
Feel free to take a look at those drafts yourself. I don't think I've missed anybody.

Here's a second list of players from the same 10 drafts who also turned out to be really good? -- either stars, or at least close to being stars:

Klay Thompson,
Steven Adams,
Zach LaVine,
Myles Turner,
Devin Booker,
Damontas Sabonis,
Donovan Mitchell,
Bam Adebayo,
Shai Gilgeous Alexander,
Miles Bridges,
Michael Porter, Jr.,
Cameron Johnson,
Devin Vassell,
Troy Haliburton

That's a list of 14 players all of whom were taken in the very same 10 drafts as the 8 on the previous list.

All 8 on the first list were taken in the 70 picks from 4-10.
All 14 of the players on the 2d list were taken from 11-14.

Btw, I'm sure some of you would have included Tyler Herro on that second list -- taking it to 15.

So much for your point, Loop. Sorry about that

Yo PIF, seems like if the Zards do trade down they shouldn't trade below the 14th pick. Do you agree?

I know we typically disagree on who has been "really good," but you left some notable names off that 4-10 list such as:
Jamal Murray
CJ McCollum
Julius Randle
Marcus Smart
Jonas Valanciunas
Kristas Porzingis
Aaron Gordon
Buddy Hield
Harrison Barnes
Andre Drummond

[Rafael122]

Bilal at 8 is a tough sell for me.

Based on the mocks? Or compared to the group that is projected to be available around 8?

Both, kid is super raw. I realize most of these kids are raw, but this kid is probably a bit behind everyone else in his age range. You might be able to put him in there for a few minutes just for the defense, but other than that, you're not expecting much.

[NatP4]

Bilal at 8 is a tough sell for me.

Based on the mocks? Or compared to the group that is projected to be available around 8?

Both, kid is super raw. I realize most of these kids are raw, but this kid is probably a bit behind everyone else in his age range. You might be able to put him in there for a few minutes just for the defense, but other than that, you're not expecting much.

No idea where that comes from. He’s an 18 year old putting up good numbers and contributing in the French pro league. 57% on 2s and 45% from 3.

On the u21 team he was averaging 22-6-2-3-1 on 61% from 2 and 33% from 3. He’s just way too good to play on the junior team. Well above 60% TS for both teams.

France is producing tons of NBA talent these days.

[payitforward]

But why stop there? How about picking below that level. From 15 down, including undrafted, from the same decade. How many "really good players -- some stars, some close, all quite good -- came from way down there?

2011:
Kawhi Leonard, Tobias Harris, Jimmy Butler, Bojan Bogdanovic, Isaiah Thomas.
Some other quite good players as well: Nikola Vucevic, Reggie Jackson, Cory Joseph, & E'Twaun Moore come to mind. Not a high pick among them -- in fact, Moore went at 55 (& if his name is unfamiliar, repeat after me: "I am a casual fan.")

2012:
In its way the weirdest draft ever: Satoransky, Crowder, Draymond, Middleton, Barton, O’Quinn were all R2 picks who turned out to be better than 6 of the top 10 guys picked in the draft that year! & better than almost all of the rest of Round 1 as well.

2013
Giannis, taken at 13, is better than any #1 pick since LeBron. & Rudy Gobert, taken at 27, is better than at least half of them. Dieng, Plumlee, Hardaway, Bullock, Roberson, & Ennis were also low picks who outperformed most taken above them.

2014
Nurkic (16), Harris (19), Capela (25), Bogdanovic (27), Dinwiddie (38), Grant (39), Jokic (41), Powell (45), Clarkson (46), -- all better than Jabari Parker (2), Dante Exum (5), Nik Stauskas (8), Noah Vonleh (9), Elfrid Payton (10), Doug McDermott (11), Dario Saric (12), & Adreian Payne (16).

& so on in pretty much every previous draft & every draft to come. Nor will it be different this year. There will be 3-5 guys taken in the lottery who turn out not to be nearly as good as 3-5 players taken from, say, 25 to 50.

[payitforward]

Bilal at 8 is a tough sell for me.

Based on the mocks? Or compared to the group that is projected to be available around 8?

Both, kid is super raw. I realize most of these kids are raw, but this kid is probably a bit behind everyone else in his age range. You might be able to put him in there for a few minutes just for the defense, but other than that, you're not expecting much.

Neither of these points of view make any sense to me. Neither seems to jibe with the way common sense (& other markets) suggest one ought to manage a draft:

1. You don't target a single player, you create tiers. At any pick you ought to have at least 2-3 candidates whom you see as on the same level.

2. You try never to pick a guy at #8 if you are pretty sure he'll be available at, say, #15. Instead you trade down.

Why do I think the above?

1. Anyone who imagines he can sequence 60 prospects individually with any accurate relation to how they're going to wind up playing is just being silly. Keep in mind that about 1/3 of all players taken from 1-3 don't live up to their billing! That's the top 3.

2. OTOH, a draft pick is the only thing the league gives every team, two to each team, for free. If you don't maximize what you get from using your picks (either by making a pick or by trading the pick), you are at a disadvantage vis a vis the other teams in the league.

[payitforward]

Zach Edey is going back for his senior year.
I was with Doc on his being a pretty good R2 target for us. Oh well....

[Rafael122]

What is this..

Read on Twitter

[80sballboy]

What is this..

Read on Twitter

Watch on YouTube

[CoreyVillains]

Hey guys, Corey here from No Ceilings. Being as though you guys are in position to potentially select Taylor Hendricks, I thought I'd stop by and post the film session that I recently filmed with him. Gives a great glimpse into his approach and skillset!

Watch on YouTube

[NatP4]

Apparently Coulibaly has a promise from a team in the top 13. Assuming it’s Toronto or OKC.

Again, NOT a reach at 8 at all. The mocks have been way behind on this guy all year.

[nate33]

What is this..

Read on Twitter

Man, that's an ugly shot.

[NatP4]

Podziemski is going to be a major steal in the 15-30 range:

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=brandin-podziemski--josh-hart--jalen-brunson--donte-divincenzo

4th or 5th best player in this draft when it’s all said and done.

[Jay81]

Podziemski is going to be a major steal in the 15-30 range:

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=brandin-podziemski--josh-hart--jalen-brunson--donte-divincenzo

4th or 5th best player in this draft when it’s all said and done.

Yoda has him 14th.

[doclinkin]

Isaiah Wong - Good shooter and scorer. Could turn into a Jordan MccRae-like bucket off of the bench.

...

Adama Sanogo - good 3pt and FT shooter for his size, can rebound, can score inside. Probably not going to be more than a 3rd center in the NBA. In my opinion, he's the best 2nd round big in the draft at this point.

With you on Wong and Sanogo. Wong is undersized, and the league is steering away from combo guards, but his assist #'s took a jump this year. I want him for the GoGo. He doesn't rush, can't be hurried, and his calm spreads to the team around him.

Sanogo is a catapult who can rebound. Solid solid player, the added range is a good thing. But what speaks best for him is his steady improvement in shooting stats in college. That, and you know, a national championship. Most important player on the winning team.

[doclinkin]

Zach Edey is going back for his senior year.
I was with Doc on his being a pretty good R2 target for us. Oh well....

As predicted. There is too much money in college now for him to pass it up. Hell, he may skip to China after college and really clean up.

[doclinkin]

With players like Cam Whitmore jumping up some draft boards, I see more mocks where Jarace Walker falls to the Wiz. Or past them if the mocks select Black for us.

Me personally, no way I'd take Anthony Black over Walker. Walker is a human hurricane on defense. Yeah it might be tough to play both Walker and Deni together (defensive facilitator glue guys with iffy jumpers). But double that for Black who shoots even worse. And Black is nice on defense, but Walker is another level:

Read on Twitter

Players like Monte and Kispert are noted as questionable defenders. Even Beal. But Walker can cover for everybody. He makes the rest of the team better on defense. Him stalling the point of attack or blowing up the Pick and Roll, allows Gafford or KP to get in position behind him. Deni fouls less if he is not the sole defender vs the opposing best player. Delon can risk more in crowding an opponent or swiping the ball.

Our offense might take a hit, but picture a Wizards team that can snuff opponents on D, then sprint to the other end and crush it through.

[NatP4]

Walker looks more like an energy 4/5 off the bench to me. I don’t see starting upside. He’s almost 20 years old posting a 53% TS as a PF on one of the best teams in the country(with an elite PG) playing mediocre competition. The rebounding is also questionable.

Reminds me of guys like Sochan and Achiuwa. 99 percentile outcome is like a Myles Turner.

[Dat2U]

Amen's shot needs alot of work. So much so he may slip to 8 if Houston & Orlando decide they need more shooting instead. Indy & Detroit are no threats to take him. At 8 I bite that his 99.9% tier athleticism at 6-7 covers for his shot defencies while they clean up his form. Don't let him become Ben Simmons and not take him at all. Russ was never a good shooter but his outlier athleticism, aggressiveness and willingness to fire up mid-range jumpers made him a supreme threat.

With Ausur's shot looking like its much further along as well as his established comfort level off the ball, you wonder if Houston, Orlando or Indiana doesn't consider him ahead of Amen.


Despite concerns about Taylor Hendrick's feel offensively and finishing ability, I don't have concerns about his work ethic or shot making ability.

Cam really does scream Jaylen Brown to me, good and the bad. Michael Porter III is another tunnel vision scoring F that's a comparable. His combo of athleticism, power & intriguing skill and something I'm willing to take a risk on.

My worst case scenario is if Amen, Ausur, Cam & Taylor all are gone which means Jarace & Black are there ... the two guys I think are solid but not clear starters to me without serious improvement in terms of outside shooting.

At that point, I'd entertain a trade down or decide between Gradey Dick & Cason Wallace.

[NatP4]

I really think Houston is the only option for Amen.

Still not a great fit there with Green+Harden rumors.

Top 3 is pretty set, after that:

Orlando: not a fit with Suggs
Detroit: not a fit with Cunningham+Ivey
Pacers: Haliburton has the ball most of the time

Ausar is an option for all of those teams.

I think the most likely landing spot for Amen is Washington, especially with us probably resigning our best player, a stretch big/floor spacing 5.

[gambitx777]

I've been sounding off on Bilal for a while now. He's gonna be really good! I wouldn't be too make reaching for him at 8 I think Carson Wallace is gonna fall pretty hard. We might be able to pick him up out side the loto. Podziemski might go late first at this rate but I'm still skeptical. If someone promised Bilal in the late loto it might be us.

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