Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread

[nate33]

I’m not sure if Kuminga is even a NBA caliber player at this point. No thanks

Avdija is going to shine with a bigger role

Kuminga has I higher EPM, BPM, PER and WS/48. He posts a higher TS% on a higher usage. Deni is a better rebounder and gets a few more assists with a few less turnovers.

Kuminga has a substantially worse on/off differential, but that tends to happen in Golden State if you play the minutes that Curry isn't on the floor.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

An example of the type of deal I'm thinking about would be Deni for Kuminga. I think it makes pretty good sense for both teams. Deni would be a great fit as a passing forward and versatile defender in their system - sort of a Draymond Green understudy, though without the ability to guard centers.

But I want him to be our Draymond Green...

I just think Golden State's system leverages Deni's strengths while hiding his weaknesses more than our system does. I think he is a better fit there than here. Likewise, I think Golden State's system is too complicated for Kuminga. He just doesn't play the read/react game very well. But Kuminga does have some interesting basketball skills that might work better in a more traditional pick-and-roll type of system.

I'm not even advocating for such a trade. I'm just saying I don't consider Deni untouchable. Moving him isn't necessarily a departure from a rebuilding plan as long as he is being moved for a pick/prospect with similar upside.

Lol, Deni aside, what system is that? We are going down this path because we have no system, no identity.

[DCZards]

I don’t think GS makes the Kuminga for Avdija trade. Kuminga is almost a full 2 yrs younger than Deni and has shown enough in spurts to leave the impression that he has a fairly high upside.

I’m good with giving Deni another year. It may have been an outlier but I was impressed by the way he took over and pretty much dominated that Boston game near the end of the season.

[payitforward]

I’m not sure if Kuminga is even a NBA caliber player at this point. No thanks

Avdija is going to shine with a bigger role

Kuminga has I higher EPM, BPM, PER and WS/48. He posts a higher TS% on a higher usage. Deni is a better rebounder and gets a few more assists with a few less turnovers.

Kuminga has a substantially worse on/off differential, but that tends to happen in Golden State if you play the minutes that Curry isn't on the floor.

These two guys' overall production is extremely close; there's not much to choose between them. Being 21 months the younger, Kuminga has more runway, but that's as far as it goes in his favor.

Whatever one says about either guy's potential to improve, the most significant fact about them both is that they've been disappointing. I'd rather trade either of them for as much as I could get in picks than trade one for the other.

[nate33]

But I want him to be our Draymond Green...

I just think Golden State's system leverages Deni's strengths while hiding his weaknesses more than our system does. I think he is a better fit there than here. Likewise, I think Golden State's system is too complicated for Kuminga. He just doesn't play the read/react game very well. But Kuminga does have some interesting basketball skills that might work better in a more traditional pick-and-roll type of system.

I'm not even advocating for such a trade. I'm just saying I don't consider Deni untouchable. Moving him isn't necessarily a departure from a rebuilding plan as long as he is being moved for a pick/prospect with similar upside.

Lol, Deni aside, what system is that? We are going down this path because we have no system, no identity.

Well, I figure we're going to run a system that doesn't involve Steph Curry. And most systems that don't involve Steph Curry look about the same, with a lot of pick and rolls as the primary action. Guys like Kuminga get to play as a role player on the wing with a fairly simple and well-defined role: catching and shooting 3's, making backdoor cuts, and attacking close outs. Kuminga can do these things better than Avdija because he is a better shooter and a better finisher.

I don't know if an Avdija for Kuminga trade is fair. But I do think both players would play better on their new teams than they play now.

[nate33]

I don’t think GS makes the Kuminga for Avdija trade. Kuminga is almost a full 2 yrs younger than Deni and has shown enough in spurts to leave the impression that he has a fairly high upside.

Yeah, it would certainly go against conventional wisdom as Kuminga is considered a high upside guy with star potential, and Avdija looks like his destined to be more of a role player. But Golden State has a smart front office and a motivation to be good right now. I think, right now, Avdija is a better fit and may help Golden State win more games over the next 2-3 years than Kuminga.

[payitforward]

In my experience, & I don't just mean basketball, swapping my mistake for your mistake rarely leads to progress for either side.

Of course either of these guys might turn it around -- you don't close the door on guys their age. But... that's a selling point not a buying point if you follow me.

I'd a lot rather identify something I want (a player or a pick) & fold my mistake's "potential" (which is, after all, real in both cases) into what I'm offering to get it.

[nate33]

In my experience, & I don't just mean basketball, swapping my mistake for your mistake rarely leads to progress for either side.

Of course either of these guys might turn it around -- you don't close the door on guys their age. But... that's a selling point not a buying point if you follow me.

I'd a lot rather identify something I want (a player or a pick) & fold my mistake's "potential" (which is, after all, real in both cases) into what I'm offering to get it.

I think a 20-year-old Kuminga is a better prospect than the pick that we would get back if we traded Deni.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

I just think Golden State's system leverages Deni's strengths while hiding his weaknesses more than our system does. I think he is a better fit there than here. Likewise, I think Golden State's system is too complicated for Kuminga. He just doesn't play the read/react game very well. But Kuminga does have some interesting basketball skills that might work better in a more traditional pick-and-roll type of system.

I'm not even advocating for such a trade. I'm just saying I don't consider Deni untouchable. Moving him isn't necessarily a departure from a rebuilding plan as long as he is being moved for a pick/prospect with similar upside.

Lol, Deni aside, what system is that? We are going down this path because we have no system, no identity.

Well, I figure we're going to run a system that doesn't involve Steph Curry. And most systems that don't involve Steph Curry look about the same, with a lot of pick and rolls as the primary action. Guys like Kuminga get to play as a role player on the wing with a fairly simple and well-defined role: catching and shooting 3's, making backdoor cuts, and attacking close outs. Kuminga can do these things better than Avdija because he is a better shooter and a better finisher.

I don't know if an Avdija for Kuminga trade is fair. But I do think both players would play better on their new teams than they play now.

I don't think Deni is untouchable either, by stretch of the imagination, very, very few players fit that definition. With that said, if you are implying that Draymond Green really is only valuable in a system that employs the best shooter of all time, I disagree. While I think Curry and the rest the shooters that team has had (Thompson, Durant, etc.) has helped cover some of Green's weak areas, I still think he's a player any team could utilize.

[DCZards]

I don’t think GS makes the Kuminga for Avdija trade. Kuminga is almost a full 2 yrs younger than Deni and has shown enough in spurts to leave the impression that he has a fairly high upside.

Yeah, it would certainly go against conventional wisdom as Kuminga is considered a high upside guy with star potential, and Avdija looks like his destined to be more of a role player. But Golden State has a smart front office and a motivation to be good right now. I think, right now, Avdija is a better fit and may help Golden State win more games over the next 2-3 years than Kuminga.

That’s a good point. Deni would seem to fit better in the win-now mode that GS is in. Kuminga, on the other hand, is the kind of young, raw, athletic wing that a rebuilding team like the Zards should take a chance on.

[nate33]

Lol, Deni aside, what system is that? We are going down this path because we have no system, no identity.

Well, I figure we're going to run a system that doesn't involve Steph Curry. And most systems that don't involve Steph Curry look about the same, with a lot of pick and rolls as the primary action. Guys like Kuminga get to play as a role player on the wing with a fairly simple and well-defined role: catching and shooting 3's, making backdoor cuts, and attacking close outs. Kuminga can do these things better than Avdija because he is a better shooter and a better finisher.

I don't know if an Avdija for Kuminga trade is fair. But I do think both players would play better on their new teams than they play now.

I don't think Deni is untouchable either, by stretch of the imagination, very, very few players fit that definition. With that said, if you are implying that Draymond Green really is only valuable in a system that employs the best shooter of all time, I disagree. While I think Curry and the rest the shooters that team has had (Thompson, Durant, etc.) has helped cover some of Green's weak areas, I still think he's a player any team could utilize.

I don't recall saying anything about Draymond Green, but since you brought it up, I actually do think that Draymond would be substantially worse in a lot of other systems. The problem with Green is that he can't shoot, post up, or finish in traffic as a roll man. In most systems, teams would just ignore him and use his defender to provide help defense. But what's unique about Golden State is that they have two of the best shooters in history who are amazing coming off screens and only need a sliver of daylight to get their shot off. If someone leaves Draymond alone, he just goes and sets a screen for Curry or Klay. Without Green's defender in the frame to hedge the screen, Curry and Klay get open looks. Ultimately, teams decide they can't leave Green alone to play help defense.

I don't think there are very many teams that could hide Green's offensive weakness like this.

[joshuacf]

I don't think GS even considers a Deni for Kuminga trade. Kuminga is two years younger, has played one less NBA season than Deni, and has played less minutes per season than Deni has. Kuminga hasn't gotten a as much of a chance to show what he can do.

From our perspective, the upside on Deni is better than whatever paltry returns we could get for him. Let him play 30+ mpg a game this season without Kuzma around and let's see what happens. Worst case scenario he isn't good, helps us with the tank, and walks in '24.

[doclinkin]

Well, I figure we're going to run a system that doesn't involve Steph Curry. And most systems that don't involve Steph Curry look about the same, with a lot of pick and rolls as the primary action.

if you are implying that Draymond Green really is only valuable in a system that employs the best shooter of all time, I disagree. While I think Curry and the rest the shooters that team has had (Thompson, Durant, etc.) has helped cover some of Green's weak areas, I still think he's a player any team could utilize.

I think these Finals illustrate the utility of a Draymond Green. Here we have 2 of the other best High Post centers in the league contending for championship hardware.

In Wes we have a coach who understands the utility of the empty paint where the Center initiates offense from the top of the key. He helped input it in Denver, advocated for it under the guise of the 'Princeton Offense' for the Wizards. Though we never got the right jumpshooting Big to make it work no matter how many draft picks we wasted (Hilton Necklong. Stewie Pecherov, etc.). Still, posting Jamison on the wing to shoot 3's initiated the small ball era that Curry and Draymond ultimately rode to a mini dynasty.

Long before that however Bill Russell carried the Celtics to a true dynasty playing the same role: directing the action from the Pivot. Where various HOF guards wheeled around him in constant motion, looking for backdoor cuts and getting loose from off ball screens. I wasn't alive then, but dived deep into it one year when the Main Board had an All-Time Draft and I got curious how and why Russ was able to win even against one of the best athletes of all time in Wilt Chamberlain. Then the Wiz started playing a hybrid Princeton offense under Eddie F Jordan with Gilbert and come to find out the offense was built off the principles of those Celtics.

Immaterial for the discussion of Deni vs Kuminga. But I do think it is a workable play model. In KP we have a guy who can approximate some of that skill set: a jump shooting Big who can defend on the interior, is a willing passer, has reliable range to above the free throw line, though is inconsistent outside of that.

Personally I think the post LeBJ era will show more of that. We see an influx of face-up Bigs who have morphed the small ball concept into the Tall Ball version. In these finals we see two non-Draymond teams making it work. Following the defensive rules emphasis that siphoned away the utility of driving into traffic to force fouls, or jacking up shots from outside hoping to induce a 4-point play, I expect the high percentage plays available will be: interior scoring, outside shooting by tall players unbothered by traffic. In that respect, passes from big to big will be available and productive options. Bigs that have to be guarded outside open up off ball motion and passing lanes for attacks into empty paint.

If Deni could shoot even a little bit, he'd serve well as a facilitator in these sets. If he learned to set a heavy screen or pick, even better. He and Kispert both understand when to cut, and how to take advantage of a split second opening. I still think we need a back up for KP, for whether he chooses to leave, if he struggles to stay healthy, or even to play with a 2nd ranged big to open up even more aerial passing lanes.

That's one reason why I amplified the potential of players like Dereck Lively or Zach Edey in this draft. Both pass well for their size, score efficiently inside. Lively shows range. I think the ability to play tall ball with an inverted court will be a significant weapon. IF we can stockpile players who fit that style, then we will have trading pieces that other teams will pay heavily for.

[nate33]

Well, I figure we're going to run a system that doesn't involve Steph Curry. And most systems that don't involve Steph Curry look about the same, with a lot of pick and rolls as the primary action.

if you are implying that Draymond Green really is only valuable in a system that employs the best shooter of all time, I disagree. While I think Curry and the rest the shooters that team has had (Thompson, Durant, etc.) has helped cover some of Green's weak areas, I still think he's a player any team could utilize.

I think these Finals illustrate the utility of a Draymond Green. Here we have 2 of the other best High Post centers in the league contending for championship hardware.

In Wes we have a coach who understands the utility of the empty paint where the Center initiates offense from the top of the key. He helped input it in Denver, advocated for it under the guise of the 'Princeton Offense' for the Wizards. Though we never got the right jumpshooting Big to make it work no matter how many draft picks we wasted (Hilton Necklong. Stewie Pecherov, etc.). Still, posting Jamison on the wing to shoot 3's initiated the small ball era that Curry and Draymond ultimately rode to a mini dynasty.

Long before that however Bill Russell carried the Celtics to a true dynasty playing the same role: directing the action from the Pivot. Where various HOF guards wheeled around him in constant motion, looking for backdoor cuts and getting loose from off ball screens. I wasn't alive then, but dived deep into it one year when the Main Board had an All-Time Draft and I got curious how and why Russ was able to win even against one of the best athletes of all time in Wilt Chamberlain. Then the Wiz started playing a hybrid Princeton offense under Eddie F Jordan with Gilbert and come to find out the offense was built off the principles of those Celtics.

Immaterial for the discussion of Deni vs Kuminga. But I do think it is a workable play model. In KP we have a guy who can approximate some of that skill set: a jump shooting Big who can defend on the interior, is a willing passer, has reliable range to above the free throw line, though is inconsistent outside of that.

Personally I think the post LeBJ era will show more of that. We see an influx of face-up Bigs who have morphed the small ball concept into the Tall Ball version. In these finals we see two non-Draymond teams making it work. Following the defensive rules emphasis that siphoned away the utility of driving into traffic to force fouls, or jacking up shots from outside hoping to induce a 4-point play, I expect the high percentage plays available will be: interior scoring, outside shooting by tall players unbothered by traffic. In that respect, passes from big to big will be available and productive options. Bigs that have to be guarded outside open up off ball motion and passing lanes for attacks into empty paint.

If Deni could shoot even a little bit, he'd serve well as a facilitator in these sets. If he learned to set a heavy screen or pick, even better. He and Kispert both understand when to cut, and how to take advantage of a split second opening. I still think we need a back up for KP, for whether he chooses to leave, if he struggles to stay healthy, or even to play with a 2nd ranged big to open up even more aerial passing lanes.

That's one reason why I amplified the potential of players like Dereck Lively or Zach Edey in this draft. Both pass well for their size, score efficiently inside. Lively shows range. I think the ability to play tall ball with an inverted court will be a significant weapon. IF we can stockpile players who fit that style, then we will have trading pieces that other teams will pay heavily for.

I agree that running an offense through a high post 5 is looking more and more like a very effective strategy in today's NBA. (Miami also does it a lot through Bam.) I'm not really sure how this relates to Draymond or Deni though. Those guys are too short and don't shoot well enough to be the high post focal point.

The really neat thing about running the offense through your 5 is because all four other players are likely to be threats to shoot and drive past a close out. If you run the high post offense through your 4, you are still stuck with a low-skill 5 who teams will sag off of and use that help defender to jam up all the back door cuts.

Draymond can make it work while playing the 4 in Golden State to some degree because Curry has such insane gravity, but I don't think it's a blueprint that Deni can follow here.

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