BrandHIM Miller: The Brandon Miller Thread

[JMAC3]

Wing prospects taken in the top 5 last few years.
RJ Barrett
De'Andre Hunter
Patrick Williams
Isaac Okoro
Scottie Barnes
Paolo Banchero

Brandon Miller skill level is far ahead of all these guys except maybe Paolo. Legit if any of those guys could shoot half as well as Miller, how much better would they be as players? Why are we acting like a 6-9 guys who can shoot, dribble and pass aren't super rare.

[yosemiteben]

He averaged 2 assists per game and had a 1:1 ATO ratio. Feels a little generous to act like he has outlier passing skills.

[wilson115]

Wing prospects taken in the top 5 last few years.
RJ Barrett
De'Andre Hunter
Patrick Williams
Isaac Okoro
Scottie Barnes
Paolo Banchero

Brandon Miller skill level is far ahead of all these guys except maybe Paolo. Legit if any of those guys could shoot half as well as Miller, how much better would they be as players? Why are we acting like a 6-9 guys who can shoot, dribble and pass aren't super rare.

Where's the data to support that take? For example, given you're saying Miller's on-track to become a Kawhi-level playmaking wing, what's the basis for saying Miller (12.7) is "far ahead" there seeing both Barrett (23.5) and Barnes (31.6) massively outperformed him in assist rate as NCAA players? And, unlike Miller, their shooting %s didn't plummet against superior competition.

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?year=2023&p=Brandon%20Miller&t=Alabama
https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?year=2019&p=R.J.%20Barrett&t=Duke
https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?year=2021&p=Scottie%20Barnes&t=Florida%20St.

[Snidely FC]

He averaged 2 assists per game and had a 1:1 ATO ratio. Feels a little generous to act like he has outlier passing skills.

If you want him to be a 2nd PG on the floor like Scoot Henderson then Miller may not be your guy. Miller is not a point guard.

But if you want a 6'9 SG who can make all the passes then take a moment to look at the playmaking highlights that start at 8:45 in Spinelli's video and decide whether you think he can bring high level positional passing for a 6'9 wing:

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

[yosemiteben]

Really I'm just bringing some perspective on these arguments that seem incredibly generous. Miller is a reliable scorer because even on his off nights he can score "double digit points" on poor efficiency, and he has outlier passing skills despite having very low assist numbers for a facilitating wing.

Feels like these sorts of characterizations would get mocked if they were made in support of Scoot.

[LofJ]

Miller seems like a PJ Washington level passer with the potential to develop into something more because of his better handle. PJ is a pretty good passer for his position/role, so definitely not a criticism.

[fatlever]

Wing prospects taken in the top 5 last few years.
RJ Barrett
De'Andre Hunter
Patrick Williams
Isaac Okoro
Scottie Barnes
Paolo Banchero

Brandon Miller skill level is far ahead of all these guys except maybe Paolo. Legit if any of those guys could shoot half as well as Miller, how much better would they be as players? Why are we acting like a 6-9 guys who can shoot, dribble and pass aren't super rare.

No doubt. Agreed I'd take draft day versions of Miller over all those guys based on where they were on draft day, maybe even Paolo who surprised me a little. That's why I think it's fair to say Miller has legit #1 pick potential in most drafts.

Of course I never understood the okoro hype or Williams hype.

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[JDR720]

The most assists Miller ever got was 5. He had 8 games when he had 0. He also had 5 games when he had 5+ turnovers.

[fatlever]

Really I'm just bringing some perspective on these arguments that seem incredibly generous. Miller is a reliable scorer because even on his off nights he can score "double digit points" on poor efficiency, and he has outlier passing skills despite having very low assist numbers for a facilitating wing.

Feels like these sorts of characterizations would get mocked if they were made in support of Scoot.

They would. It's a double standard, but whatever.



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[GoBobs]

Even if you don't believe that his handle and passing are above average for a 6'9'' NBA prospect, shooting ability is a super valuable skill to have. Ryan Anderson is a good NBA comp if the only standout skill is the shooting.

So do we want somebody that can really space the floor which would improve what LaMelo does well already, or do we want a guy who can take some of the pressure off of him to do it all every night over the course of a long NBA season and to run the show when he is resting on the bench?

[JMAC3]

Really I'm just bringing some perspective on these arguments that seem incredibly generous. Miller is a reliable scorer because even on his off nights he can score "double digit points" on poor efficiency, and he has outlier passing skills despite having very low assist numbers for a facilitating wing.

Feels like these sorts of characterizations would get mocked if they were made in support of Scoot.

If you read my post, I said he is more skilled. Then specifically mentioned his shooting vs those other guys who went top 5.

I didn't say he is more skilled at every facet of the game then these guys, but rather that he is a 6-9 and can pass, shoot and dribble...Not sure why you are trying to make it sound like I said those guys had zero skills or trying to focus on passing specifically.

Miller assist and turnover rates were on the same level as Tatum, Ingram etc.. been through that. Do I need to rehash again? He has shown enough passing and running offense through him that I think it translates to NBA playmaking success.

[JMAC3]

Miller seems like a PJ Washington level passer with the potential to develop into something more because of his better handle. PJ is a pretty good passer for his position/role, so definitely not a criticism.

I like PJ passing as the short roll guy and maybe some high low stuff, but Miller is on another level as a guy that can pick you apart and make the right reads coming off pnr, transition, etc..

I have seen him make some great passes during film that aren't even in this clip, but idk how someone can watch this and not see him an avenue for him to be a good distributor as an NBA wing.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

[yosemiteben]

Really I'm just bringing some perspective on these arguments that seem incredibly generous. Miller is a reliable scorer because even on his off nights he can score "double digit points" on poor efficiency, and he has outlier passing skills despite having very low assist numbers for a facilitating wing.

Feels like these sorts of characterizations would get mocked if they were made in support of Scoot.

If you read my post, I said he is more skilled. Then specifically mentioned his shooting vs those other guys who went top 5.

I didn't say he is more skilled at every facet of the game then these guys, but rather that he is a 6-9 and can pass, shoot and dribble...Not sure why you are trying to make it sound like I said those guys had zero skills or trying to focus on passing specifically.

My point was more you are comparing Miller to guys who averaged double the assists and seem to be acting like they are on the same tier as far as passing / creation.

Just kind of a rehash of prior arguments, but by pointing to Ingram and Tatum you seem to be making the argument that it is common for guys who don't put up many assists in college to turn into plus facilitating wings in the league. For every Tatum and Ingram, there are probably 15 guys like Kevin Knox or Josh Jackson.

[SWedd523]

Really I'm just bringing some perspective on these arguments that seem incredibly generous. Miller is a reliable scorer because even on his off nights he can score "double digit points" on poor efficiency, and he has outlier passing skills despite having very low assist numbers for a facilitating wing.

Feels like these sorts of characterizations would get mocked if they were made in support of Scoot.

They would. It's a double standard, but whatever.



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The difference is in the language

"He's a reliable scorer" is nowhere near as hyperbolic as "He's going to average 12-14 assists per night" or "He's a Rose tier athlete"

If y'all can't see the difference then maybe it is a double standard.

I already made my post in the Scoot thread but I'll contrast it with Miller here.

The descriptors for Miller are "great shooter", "can play a bunch of positions", "fits well", "outlier skill for his size (I assume referring to him being more of a big guard than a forward)", "great fit", "plus defender", etc.

None of that seems hyperbolic to me. Nobody saying he has the rarest combination of traits seen by a PG in the history of the game. Nobody saying he's going to be a 30-10 guy who makes all-defense.

Definitely a double standard

[JMAC3]

Really I'm just bringing some perspective on these arguments that seem incredibly generous. Miller is a reliable scorer because even on his off nights he can score "double digit points" on poor efficiency, and he has outlier passing skills despite having very low assist numbers for a facilitating wing.

Feels like these sorts of characterizations would get mocked if they were made in support of Scoot.

If you read my post, I said he is more skilled. Then specifically mentioned his shooting vs those other guys who went top 5.

I didn't say he is more skilled at every facet of the game then these guys, but rather that he is a 6-9 and can pass, shoot and dribble...Not sure why you are trying to make it sound like I said those guys had zero skills or trying to focus on passing specifically.

My point was more you are comparing Miller to guys who averaged double the assists and seem to be acting like they are on the same tier as far as passing / creation.

Just kind of a rehash of prior arguments, but by pointing to Ingram and Tatum you seem to be making the argument that it is common for guys who don't put up many assists in college to turn into plus facilitating wings in the league. For every Tatum and Ingram, there are probably 15 guys like Kevin Knox or Josh Jackson.

Posted a video with the flashes, the stats are in line with other guys who have done it, Bama already used him in a ton of playmaking actions..... I don't think it is a stretch. He was the teams leading scorer and rebounder.. I mean how dare he not lead them in assists too. I still think RJ Barrett could be good in a Wiggins role somewhere else, but I am sure Miller would have averaged more assists if he played with the Wemby and Grady Dick this season... Barrett played with Zion and Reddish.

[yosemiteben]

If you read my post, I said he is more skilled. Then specifically mentioned his shooting vs those other guys who went top 5.

I didn't say he is more skilled at every facet of the game then these guys, but rather that he is a 6-9 and can pass, shoot and dribble...Not sure why you are trying to make it sound like I said those guys had zero skills or trying to focus on passing specifically.

My point was more you are comparing Miller to guys who averaged double the assists and seem to be acting like they are on the same tier as far as passing / creation.

Just kind of a rehash of prior arguments, but by pointing to Ingram and Tatum you seem to be making the argument that it is common for guys who don't put up many assists in college to turn into plus facilitating wings in the league. For every Tatum and Ingram, there are probably 15 guys like Kevin Knox or Josh Jackson.

Posted a video with the flashes, the stats are in line with other guys who have done it, Bama already used him in a ton of playmaking actions..... I don't think it is a stretch. He was the teams leading scorer and rebounder.. I mean how dare he not lead them in assists too.

This sort of entrenched over the top response is what doesn't make sense to me. He averaged 2 APG. Saying "the stats are in line with other guys who have done it" is kind of a silly comment - the vast majority of guys who average few assists in college also don't average many assists in the NBA. Pointing out a couple major outlier players is not a compelling argument for me.

No one said the issue is he didn't lead them in assists. The issue for me is he was not a plus facilitator in college and would need to make a massive leap to do so in the league.

Showing some highlights to counter that observation has about as much effect on me as I assume showing you highlights of Scoot hitting threes has on your perception of his ability to turn into a reliable three point shooter in the league.

[JMAC3]

My point was more you are comparing Miller to guys who averaged double the assists and seem to be acting like they are on the same tier as far as passing / creation.

Just kind of a rehash of prior arguments, but by pointing to Ingram and Tatum you seem to be making the argument that it is common for guys who don't put up many assists in college to turn into plus facilitating wings in the league. For every Tatum and Ingram, there are probably 15 guys like Kevin Knox or Josh Jackson.

Posted a video with the flashes, the stats are in line with other guys who have done it, Bama already used him in a ton of playmaking actions..... I don't think it is a stretch. He was the teams leading scorer and rebounder.. I mean how dare he not lead them in assists too.

This sort of entrenched over the top response is what doesn't make sense to me. He averaged 2 APG. Saying "the stats are in line with other guys who have done it" is kind of a silly comment - the vast majority of guys who average few assists in college also don't average many assists in the NBA. Pointing out a couple major outlier players is not a compelling argument for me.

No one said the issue is he didn't lead them in assists. The issue for me is he was not a plus facilitator in college and would need to make a massive leap to do so in the league.

Showing some highlights to counter that observation has about as much effect on me as I assume showing you highlights of Scoot hitting threes has on your perception of his ability to turn into a reliable three point shooter in the league.

You are lost my guy... we can look at Scoot lack of three attempts, his number of misses to tell the story. Playmaking is a bit different. You can make a great pass, but if guys miss the shot it doesn't show on the stat sheet. Bama players not named Miller shot 31.8% from three.

Most assists among forwards in NBA this year. (Rank in paranthesis) exclude LeBron, Giannis because no college stats.

(1) - Draymond- hard to judge him as a 4 yr player, but wasn't a scorer until senior.
(2) Pascal (2 yr avg)- 1.5 apg in college, 11.1% a%, 12% to, 25.4 usage, 16.6 ppg
(3)Brandon Ingram 2 apg, 11.4 assist %, 11.3 turnover %, 25.5 Usage %, 17.3 ppg
(4) Jimmy Butler (junior yr) 2.3 apg, 13.2 ass%, 9.8 turnover %, 21 usage %, 15.7 ppg
(5)Barnes- was higher, but he also was not a scorer at all at 10ppg.
(6)Jayson Tatum 2.1 apg, 12.4 assist %, 15% turnover %, 26.2 Usage %, 16.9 ppg
(7)Julius Randle- 1.4 apg, 10% ass%, 16.1% turnover, 25.4 usage % 15 ppg
(8) Gordon Hayward - 1.8 apg, 12.9 ass %, 14.8 turnover%, 22.3 usage %, 14.4 ppg
Kawhi (2 yr avg) 2.2 apg, 14.4 ass %, 13.7% turnover %, 26 usage %, 14.1 ppg

Brandon Miller 2.1 apg, 12.9 assist %, 12% turnover%, 26.2 usage %, 18.8 ppg

So 7 of the top 9 in assists for forwards were pretty similar to Miller college production.
Seems like it is more than just Tatum and Ingram he projects similarly to....

[JMAC3]

Posted a video with the flashes, the stats are in line with other guys who have done it, Bama already used him in a ton of playmaking actions..... I don't think it is a stretch. He was the teams leading scorer and rebounder.. I mean how dare he not lead them in assists too.

This sort of entrenched over the top response is what doesn't make sense to me. He averaged 2 APG. Saying "the stats are in line with other guys who have done it" is kind of a silly comment - the vast majority of guys who average few assists in college also don't average many assists in the NBA. Pointing out a couple major outlier players is not a compelling argument for me.

No one said the issue is he didn't lead them in assists. The issue for me is he was not a plus facilitator in college and would need to make a massive leap to do so in the league.

Showing some highlights to counter that observation has about as much effect on me as I assume showing you highlights of Scoot hitting threes has on your perception of his ability to turn into a reliable three point shooter in the league.

You are lost my guy... we can look at Scoot lack of three attempts, his number of misses to tell the story. Playmaking is a bit different. You can make a great pass, but if guys miss the shot it doesn't show on the stat sheet. Bama players not named Miller shot 31.8% from three.

Most assists among forwards in NBA this year. (Rank in paranthesis) exclude LeBron, Giannis because no college stats.

(1) - Draymond- hard to judge him as a 4 yr player, but wasn't a scorer until senior.
(2) Pascal (2 yr avg)- 1.5 apg in college, 11.1% a%, 12% to, 25.4 usage, 16.6 ppg
(3)Brandon Ingram 2 apg, 11.4 assist %, 11.3 turnover %, 25.5 Usage %, 17.3 ppg
(4) Jimmy Butler (junior yr) 2.3 apg, 13.2 ass%, 9.8 turnover %, 21 usage %, 15.7 ppg
(5)Barnes- was higher, but he also was not a scorer at all at 10ppg.
(6)Jayson Tatum 2.1 apg, 12.4 assist %, 15% turnover %, 26.2 Usage %, 16.9 ppg
(7)Julius Randle- 1.4 apg, 10% ass%, 16.1% turnover, 25.4 usage % 15 ppg
(8) Gordon Hayward - 1.8 apg, 12.9 ass %, 14.8 turnover%, 22.3 usage %, 14.4 ppg
Kawhi (2 yr avg) 2.2 apg, 14.4 ass %, 13.7% turnover %, 26 usage %, 14.1 ppg

Brandon Miller 2.1 apg, 12.9 assist %, 12% turnover%, 26.2 usage %, 18.8 ppg

So 7 of the top 9 in assists for forwards were pretty similar to Miller college production.
Seems like it is more than just Tatum and Ingram he projects similarly to....

You can also add Derozan to this list, averaged 1.5 apg in college.

So yeah, nobody is projecting Miller to averaged 10 apg in the NBA, but it doesn't seem crazy at all to me for him to develop into a 4-5 apg guy. Clearly being an elite passer in college isn't necessary to do that, doesn't guarantee Miller becomes these guys but I personally think he showed enough to give me hope he can do that. Especially if he is going to be a big time scorer, he will have ball and teams will be geared up to stop him and I think he has the skills to find the open shooters.

A LOT more evidence for scoring wings to add playmaking in NBA that performed like Miller... then guys that shot the ball like Scoot that became great shooters in the NBA.

[yosemiteben]

There's also tons of evidence of college scorers with low assists not being either reliable scorers or creators in the league. It's all about who you choose to believe in. That's kind of my point.

[Bassman]

I think there are some Scoot fans who are crossing into the confirmational bias trap. Possibly some Miller fans also. Once you believe in someone as the right choice, you tend to favor bits of info or details that confirm your choice and/or find the weaknesses in alternative choices. It’s human nature but also very close to the right process for judgement, so easy to do.

I am admittedly a Miller advocate. I love what I see. The Box And One scouting report video linked by Snidley is a very balanced breakdown. SO MANY good qualities. The kid is a tremendous prospect. If Wemby wasn’t in (and he has his issues too) Miller would be ranked first by most.