Bilal Coulibaly

[Big J]

You’re not crazy. I’m moving him up to 2 on my board behind the French kid.

[EvanZ]

You're all sheep lol

[Hal14]

FYI, over his last 22 games, Coulibaly is shooting 39% from 3. Not crazy high volume (1.8 attempts per game) but not crazy low volume either.

So he's taken 40 3s? Are people seriously reading much into this?

41 shots isn't a huge sample size, but it's at least something. Shaedon Sharpe took 0 shots last year and was the 7th pick lol.

And those 41 shots are the most recent sample we have.

First 28 games this season: 31.5%
His last 22 games: 39% from 3

Not only is the 22 game sample the more recent one, but the 28 game sample is when he was bouncing back and forth between the Espoirs team in the U21 league and the main team in the LNB league (with Wemby on it). So not only was it challenging for him to find a rhythm bouncing back and forth between teams, but he often times was playing 1 game each for both teams, in the same day!

The 22 game sample from later in the season is after he was fully promoted onto the main team, no longer on the Espoirs team. So he was no longer playing 2 games in the same day and could finally get in a rhythm by playing all of his games with the same team.

That's why imo, the 22 game sample is more reflective of the kind of shooter he is, at this stage of his development.

It's not a huge sample size, but we're not typically working with huge sample sizes anyways when we're talking about a kid who is only 18 - and is a MUCH different player than he was a year ago - he's on a crazy development trajectory, last summer for France's U18 team he showed some flashes here and there but was coming off the bench behind Cissoko, Rupert and Kymany Houinsou, who was barely even in the rotation this season for Washington St. But just in the past 6 months or so, Coulibaly has passed all 3 of those guys and is still just scratching the surface of his potential.

[DOT]

The better indicator of NBA 3pt% has always been FT%

Good FT shooters correlate more with future good 3pt shooters than collegiate or international 3pt shooting numbers

I don't know where tankathon gets their numbers, but they're the only place I could find where his FT% is above 70% in any meaningful sample size

That isn't a death knell for his shooting, but it's more indicative than 16 made 3s over 22 games.

[Hal14]

The better indicator of NBA 3pt% has always been FT%

Good FT shooters correlate more with future good 3pt shooters than collegiate or international 3pt shooting numbers

I don't know where tankathon gets their numbers, but they're the only place I could find where his FT% is above 70% in any meaningful sample size

That isn't a death knell for his shooting, but it's more indicative than 16 made 3s over 22 games.

If you combine all the games he's played this season (between 2 different teams, 2 different leagues plus 1 Leaders Cup game) he's at 70.9% FT. Imo, a pretty good mark for an 18 year old who's 6'6"/6'7" and considering a bunch of those FT attempts came when he was exhausted from playing in his 2nd game of the day (for 2 different teams).

Also, this is a helpful article that talks about why the notion that FT shooting is the best indicator of future shooting success is kind of a myth:

https://theboxandone.substack.com/p/is-free-throw-success-an-indication

[DOT]

Also, this is a helpful article that talks about why the notion that FT shooting is the best indicator of future shooting success is kind of a myth:

https://theboxandone.substack.com/p/is-free-throw-success-an-indication

That's largely irrelevant to my point though

This article is about "good" FT shooters (I don't consider 67% to be the benchmark for "good" myself) who were poor 3pt shooters in college

What they're arguing is that having a "good" FT% does not mean you will develop your 3pt shot. Which is kind of an argument against your point, not mine, since Coulibaly fits their definition of "good" FT shooter

What I'm saying is that if a guy is below my qualifications on both FT shooting and 3pt shooting, I'm not bullish on his ability to develop a 3pt shot, and if I have 2 guys who are both very good 3pt shooters, if one is significantly better from the line I'll lean towards him.

[Catchall]

The problem with Bilal right now is that he shoots like Exum. He's got the rest of his game in order though.

[SeattleJazzFan]

You’re not crazy. I’m moving him up to 2 on my board behind the French kid.

he is the french kid. and evan's sheep comment is spot on.

[Hal14]

Also, this is a helpful article that talks about why the notion that FT shooting is the best indicator of future shooting success is kind of a myth:

https://theboxandone.substack.com/p/is-free-throw-success-an-indication

That's largely irrelevant to my point though

This article is about "good" FT shooters (I don't consider 67% to be the benchmark for "good" myself) who were poor 3pt shooters in college

What they're arguing is that having a "good" FT% does not mean you will develop your 3pt shot. Which is kind of an argument against your point, not mine, since Coulibaly fits their definition of "good" FT shooter

What I'm saying is that if a guy is below my qualifications on both FT shooting and 3pt shooting, I'm not bullish on his ability to develop a 3pt shot, and if I have 2 guys who are both very good 3pt shooters, if one is significantly better from the line I'll lean towards him.

It's a 1 year sample size, though. That's nothing. Especially for a kid who's still just 18 yrs old, playing in 1 of the top pro leagues in the world.

You gotta look at the context - not just the raw stats.

[DOT]

It's a 1 year sample size, though. That's nothing. Especially for a kid who's still just 18 yrs old, playing in 1 of the top pro leagues in the world.

You gotta look at the context - not just the raw stats.

Yeah, it's basically nothing

But it's not good, so I'm not bullish on his shooting

He could develop it, but I'm not betting a top 10 pick on it.

[Upperclass]

He clearly wont be a plus shooter, but should be decent enough.. He's plays a bit like young Andrew Wiggins

[EvanZ]

People keep citing this Spinella guy like he's the Maud'dib of the draft. DYODD people!

40 3PA isn't "something". It's literally nothing. It's like 5 or 6 NBA games for a typical shooter. It's maybe 2 games for Klay Thompson.

[Capn'O]

You're all sheep lol

Because we don't all agree with you?

[clyde21]

yeah, this talk is getting a bit over the top. i thought people having him in the 8-12 range is a bit too rich, not sure what has happened between then and now to bump him up to top 5.

[Capn'O]

yeah, this talk is getting a bit over the top. i thought people having him in the 8-12 range is a bit too rich, not sure what has happened between then and now to bump him up to top 5.

I'd have him 8-12.

I'm annoyed about it too as I was realistically angling to get him at 21 in my dynasty style league a few weeks ago before he decided to have this little playoff spurt

[Capn'O]

I think he's shown you have to respect his three which is helpful for his slashing game, the meat of what he does right now. Where he goes from here is alchemy but he's established that he's not a liability out there.

[EvanZ]

You're all sheep lol

Because we don't all agree with you?

Because you all agree with each other

[Hal14]

You're all sheep lol

Because we don't all agree with you?

Because you all agree with each other

That's not the case at all. These past 2 pages in this thread, the thoughts/opinions are all over the place.

[Big J]

You’re not crazy. I’m moving him up to 2 on my board behind the French kid.

he is the french kid. and evan's sheep comment is spot on.

Then who is Wemby?

[EvanZ]

Because we don't all agree with you?

Because you all agree with each other

That's not the case at all. These past 2 pages in this thread, the thoughts/opinions are all over the place.

Yes all over whether he should be 2 or 5