Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread

[Rafael122]

Can we group Monte Morris in a sign and trade involving Kuzma? Was thinking we ship out Morris and Kuzma to the Clippers for Covington and Mann.

I'd hope to get more than that; Mann is decent but Covington is a negative asset. If Morris and Mann have similar values then we're basically gifting them Kuzma and taking on a negative contract in return.

I don't hate the idea of a trade with the Clippers, though. Bones Hyland, Brandon Boston, and Jason Preston are all guys who I'd have some level of interest in.

Maybe something like:

Wizards give:
Morris
Kuzma

Wizards get:
Eric Gordon
Brandon Boston
Bones Hyland or Jason Preston?

I'd be willing to throw in a 2nd if it was Hyland.

Only hesitation is Eric Gordon's option deadline is the day before the free agency. I don't think he's willing to work with the Clippers and extend that b/c he could miss out on being a 1st or 2nd day signing (when the $ is flowing). Covington is an expiring, Mann is decent. Honestly, if they can do some wink/wink deal where they pick our player at 30, I think it's a good trade.

[NatP4]

I’ve been pushing for a deal with the Clippers for awhile. They can really use Morris. Preston has just been dominating in the G-league all year, 18-6-7.5 on 60% TS. 7.5 assists to 2.0 turnovers is crazy. Really impressive young player that needs an opportunity IMO.

I think you take back Covington and shoot for Preston+30 overall in the deal. Hyland and Boston are not very interesting to me, although I would take a flyer on Boston.

[nate33]

What's wrong with offensive RAPTOR? From what I understand it's a good all-in-one metric.

NatP4 was making a joke. PIF totally rejects any advanced stat as an argument unless the poster presenting the stat can write a detailed thesis explaining exactly how the stat is calculated. It's a convenient way for him to disregard any criticism of his player evaluations.

His criticism is even more pronounced against stats like RAPTOR and BPM which have a strong on/off component to their ranking.

[nate33]

Read on Twitter

Will any of these teams make a play for Porzingis?

Bear in mind, Porzingis' deadline for opting in is June 21st. So he has 3 choices:

1. Opt in on his player option and wait for Summer 2024 to enter free agency.

2. Arrange and opt-out-and-extend with Washington right now, landing him a long term deal at no risk.

3. Opt out on his player option and enter the free agency market in August. He can then hope one of the above teams will give him the contract he wants, but if none of them do, he could end up with substantially less than what he would have secured in Option 2 above. And theoretically at least, he is not permitted to talk to any of these teams until August 2nd. Arranging a deal ahead of time would be tampering.

[NatP4]

My prediction:

Beal traded
Kuzma S&T
Porzingis opts out and extends in Washington

[FAH1223]

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Will any of these teams make a play for Porzingis?

Bear in mind, Porzingis' deadline for opting in is June 21st. So he has 3 choices:

1. Opt in on his player option and wait for Summer 2024 to enter free agency.

2. Arrange and opt-out-and-extend with Washington right now, landing him a long term deal at no risk.

3. Opt out on his player option and enter the free agency market in August. He can then hope one of the above teams will give him the contract he wants, but if none of them do, he could end up with substantially less than what he would have secured in Option 2 above. And theoretically at least, he is not permitted to talk to any of these teams until July 2nd. Arranging a deal ahead of time would be tampering.

You mean July, right?

I think if KP goes to Dawkins and Winger and says he wants to stay, which I think is likely, he'll opt out and re-sign on a new deal that gives a little more breathing room under the tax.

As it stands, Houston is probably getting Harden back so that $59M is gone.

Utah is maintaining flexibility so I don't see them going after KP.

The Spurs trying to get KP to pair with Wemby would be hilarious and fun but I don't see it, I think they sign low cost vets for this year to surround their young core.

Pistons have a million centers now.

Indiana has Turner who they just extended with a team friendly deal.

And Orlando is probably looking at guard or wing help.

This also brings me to Kuzma, I don't see the wild $30M a year offer that Wizards twitter keeps floating. With the new CBA, I think he may top out under $25M per year.

I keep thinking he gets 4 years and $90M in that neighborhood. Kind of like DeAndre Hunter's deal.

[payitforward]

I'd hope to get more than that; Mann is decent but Covington is a negative asset. If Morris and Mann have similar values then we're basically gifting them Kuzma and taking on a negative contract in return.

I don't hate the idea of a trade with the Clippers, though. Bones Hyland, Brandon Boston, and Jason Preston are all guys who I'd have some level of interest in.

Maybe something like:

Wizards give:
Morris
Kuzma

Wizards get:
Eric Gordon
Brandon Boston
Bones Hyland or Jason Preston?

I'd be willing to throw in a 2nd if it was Hyland.

... Brandon Boston, he was terrible in 760 minutes as a rookie & then got only 250 minutes his 2d year & was even worse. He's unguaranteed for the coming year & seems unlikely to be brought back -- meaning that he has zero value in a trade. Pick him up for free if you like -- & I can imagine someone being tempted: coming out of high school he was #2 on the RSCI top 100 & went to Kentucky for a year. He also has good size. Still...

Why do you like Hyland? He got a little attention coming out of the '21 draft, but he certainly didn't play well as a rookie, & he didn't improve his 2d year either. As to Preston, he saw the floor for 120 minutes this rookie year & is also non-guaranteed.

& I really doubt they'd be eager to trade Terance Mann -- he was 3d on the team in minutes this year, & he put up quite good numbers (as he has all 4 years he's been in the league) & they have him on a high-value contract for the next two years.

Well, Kuzma would help the Clippers as he could play significant minutes in the regular season so they could load-manage Kawaii and PG. I don't know for sure that they'd want to do that, of course. These trades are all hypotheticals!

Covington or Eric Gordon are salary match (and both expiring). We can't do a trade without taking salary back from the Clippers.

I have to disagree that Boston was even worse this year. He only got 250 minutes this year because he's playing behind PG, Kawaii, Mann, and Powell (got his name right this time!). But this year in the NBA he shot 41.4% from 3 and 76.3% from the line. Limited volume for sure. But he was also good in the G-League: 22.7 ppg, 46.4 FG%, 33.3 3P%, 84.2 FT%. Still only 21 years old. I think he's got upside.

Hyland didn't play well as a rookie? I have to strongly disagree with that. He was in the rotation for a 48-win playoff team. For his NBA career: 36.8 3P%, 85 FT%, 20.4 PTS per 36. Only 22. In his rookie year, Bones had a +2.3 offensive RAPTOR and a 2.28 ORPM. Beal last season had a +2.5 and a 1.90.

Preston was injured his rookie year, but he did some encouraging things in the G-League this year. 16.7 PPG, .480/.365/.844, 5.4 rebounds, 6.9 assists, 1.8 turnovers. A 3.8 a/t ratio is very solid. Only 23. It wouldn't hurt to take a chance on him for a season; maybe he turns out to be decent.

The reason for the trade would be to get young prospects who have a chance to develop. Morris and Kuzma aren't part of our long-term plans. Boston, Bones, or Preston could be. They're all young and have shown some potential. Only Bones has played real NBA minutes. In the case of Bones, I couldn't disagree more that he didn't show anything his rookie year. The advanced stats support that he was good. The Nuggets traded Morris to us because they expected Bones to be their 6th-man of the future! By all accounts, the Clippers plan on keeping him and playing him.

The reasons why we should trade for Boston and Preston if they have non-guaranteed contracts is twofold:

a) if we trade for them, we can guarantee ourselves that we get them. Boston in particular would have significant interest if he were to be cut by the Clippers. If that happens, who's to say he would sign with us?

b) I don't think that the Clippers are cutting Boston. https://213hoops.com/2023-clippers-exit-interview-brandon-boston-jr/

Boston -- actually, if a guy only plays 250 minutes it's wrong to say he's worse or better -- sample is too small. My bad. Boston has good size & was a highly-regarded college recruit. Definitely a guy worth taking a chance on.

Hyland -- 1. Look at all his numbers w/o looking at scoring. All below average. 2. Now look at scoring: as a rookie he was average, 2d year his TS% went down to .532.
Is this definitive? Certainly not! But, I don't see any particular appeal.

All that said... you make an outstanding point: Hyland, Boston & Preston are young (& cheap). Definitely the category of player we should be looking at. & of course, giving Kuz an extended expensive guarantee as a Wizard is such a bad idea that just about anything experimental would be better!

But I wouldn't throw in a R2 pick for Hyland.
(I could be wrong.... Wouldn't be the first time!)

[payitforward]

What's wrong with offensive RAPTOR? From what I understand it's a good all-in-one metric.

I dislike so-called "stats" without published formulas. To me they are mystery meat, so I pay them no mind.

To me, everything you need to know about a player -- everything numbers-related, that is -- is in his boxscore data (& in the end every other metric is forced to rely on boxscore data in one way or another).

That said, numbers & persons are very different things. There is no metric -- certainly no single one -- that tells you all you need to know.

Hence, e.g., Bones Hyland may turn out to be a terrific player. In fact, I hope he does. Being a parent (& grandparent!) I like seeing kids succeed in life!

[joshuacf]

Can we group Monte Morris in a sign and trade involving Kuzma? Was thinking we ship out Morris and Kuzma to the Clippers for Covington and Mann.

I'd hope to get more than that; Mann is decent but Covington is a negative asset. If Morris and Mann have similar values then we're basically gifting them Kuzma and taking on a negative contract in return.

I don't hate the idea of a trade with the Clippers, though. Bones Hyland, Brandon Boston, and Jason Preston are all guys who I'd have some level of interest in.

Maybe something like:

Wizards give:
Morris
Kuzma

Wizards get:
Eric Gordon
Brandon Boston
Bones Hyland or Jason Preston?

I'd be willing to throw in a 2nd if it was Hyland.

Only hesitation is Eric Gordon's option deadline is the day before the free agency. I don't think he's willing to work with the Clippers and extend that b/c he could miss out on being a 1st or 2nd day signing (when the $ is flowing). Covington is an expiring, Mann is decent. Honestly, if they can do some wink/wink deal where they pick our player at 30, I think it's a good trade.

The Eric Gordon option is a team option, no?

I think we can actually trade for Gordon now, and then cut him before the 6/28 deadline.

[pcbothwel]

Read on Twitter

Will any of these teams make a play for Porzingis?

Bear in mind, Porzingis' deadline for opting in is June 21st. So he has 3 choices:

1. Opt in on his player option and wait for Summer 2024 to enter free agency.

2. Arrange and opt-out-and-extend with Washington right now, landing him a long term deal at no risk.

3. Opt out on his player option and enter the free agency market in August. He can then hope one of the above teams will give him the contract he wants, but if none of them do, he could end up with substantially less than what he would have secured in Option 2 above. And theoretically at least, he is not permitted to talk to any of these teams until July 2nd. Arranging a deal ahead of time would be tampering.

You mean July, right?

I think if KP goes to Dawkins and Winger and says he wants to stay, which I think is likely, he'll opt out and re-sign on a new deal that gives a little more breathing room under the tax.

As it stands, Houston is probably getting Harden back so that $59M is gone.

Utah is maintaining flexibility so I don't see them going after KP.

The Spurs trying to get KP to pair with Wemby would be hilarious and fun but I don't see it, I think they sign low cost vets for this year to surround their young core.

Pistons have a million centers now.

Indiana has Turner who they just extended with a team friendly deal.

And Orlando is probably looking at guard or wing help.

This also brings me to Kuzma, I don't see the wild $30M a year offer that Wizards twitter keeps floating. With the new CBA, I think he may top out under $25M per year.

I keep thinking he gets 4 years and $90M in that neighborhood. Kind of like DeAndre Hunter's deal.

Dont forget fit.
Utah's best two players are bigs (Kessler and Markkanen)
Houston has Sengun and Jabari

To me, Its ONLY OKC and they have issues. It appears they only have ~30M if they keep their pick and cut 1-2 unguaranteed players.
That means the biggest contract they can offer is 4/130M, which I would easily match. I also dont see him loving OKC. OKC is a hell of a lot different than NY, Dallas, and DC, and he likes DC. They have also lost a ton of FO talent in the last few years, who we have coincidently hired.
I see him re-signing here at 4/140M contract with the last year being a PO.

[FAH1223]

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[nate33]

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I'm not too worried about statements like this. It's the right message to send out. If they announce "we want to blow this up and tear it to the ground", folks will smell blood in the water and start lowballing us on Beal - particularly if we don't manage to move Beal this offseason.

The last thing we want is for no Beal deal to materialize in the offseason, and then we have to start next season with Beal on the roster, after already announcing that we want to move him. Not only is it bad for negotiation leverage, but it will be bad in the locker room.

[nate33]

Dont forget fit.
Utah's best two players are bigs (Kessler and Markkanen)
Houston has Sengun and Jabari

To me, Its ONLY OKC and they have issues. It appears they only have ~30M if they keep their pick and cut 1-2 unguaranteed players.
That means the biggest contract they can offer is 4/130M, which I would easily match. I also dont see him loving OKC. OKC is a hell of a lot different than NY, Dallas, and DC, and he likes DC. They have also lost a ton of FO talent in the last few years, who we have coincidently hired.
I see him re-signing here at 4/140M contract with the last year being a PO.

Yeah, that's my sentiment too. It's really just OKC and maybe Detroit. That's why I don't think Porzingis will enter free agency. He's going to opt-out-and-extend before free agency starts.

[payitforward]

Yes, it seems likely we'll keep Porzingis for now, just as it also seems more likely that Beal goes at the next deadline than this off season.

Both are good decisions -- especially in that they make me feel more confident that we will move Kuzma.

[joshuacf]

I can see arguments for and against keeping Zingus.

Having one All-Star level player on the roster, especially one who can stretch the floor, will certainly help the young guys develop. Also, he's only 27 so he could fit the timeline of the rebuild. In 5 years if all goes well, we could be ready to compete and Zingus could very well still be a high-level player.

On the other hand, he's a big-time injury risk. This is someone who's played 50 games in 3 of the last 8 seasons. If he gets seriously injured, which he very well could, this contract could end up turning into an albatross. Also, assuming he doesn't get injured, he's going to add 5-10 wins to our season total. We need to be losing games to have the best odds of getting a top 3 pick. The top 3 picks are where you are most likely to find a future All-Star.

[nate33]

I can see arguments for and against keeping Zingus.

Having one All-Star level player on the roster, especially one who can stretch the floor, will certainly help the young guys develop. Also, he's only 27 so he could fit the timeline of the rebuild. In 5 years if all goes well, we could be ready to compete and Zingus could very well still be a high-level player.

On the other hand, he's a big-time injury risk. This is someone who's played 50 games in 3 of the last 8 seasons. If he gets seriously injured, which he very well could, this contract could end up turning into an albatross. Also, assuming he doesn't get injured, he's going to add 5-10 wins to our season total. We need to be losing games to have the best odds of getting a top 3 pick. The top 3 picks are where you are most likely to find a future All-Star.

You gotta pay somebody. Over the next few years we don't project to have any big-money guys on the roster, so if Porzingis is the one we keep, I'm fine with it.

High risk high reward guys are exactly the type of players a rebuilding team should spend their plentiful cap room on. If he stays healthy and plays well, we will have a very good trade asset. We can then trade him and tank. If he gets hurt and doesn't play, we will be unable to win games so we will tank. Either way, we tank, but it at least gives us a shot at adding more assets.

I think the same way about a guy like Ben Simmons.

[Wizardspride]

My prediction:

Beal traded
Kuzma S&T
Porzingis opts out and extends in Washington

I believe you're right...though if Beal is traded, I'd prefer to keep Kuzma.

[FAH1223]

I can see arguments for and against keeping Zingus.

Having one All-Star level player on the roster, especially one who can stretch the floor, will certainly help the young guys develop. Also, he's only 27 so he could fit the timeline of the rebuild. In 5 years if all goes well, we could be ready to compete and Zingus could very well still be a high-level player.

On the other hand, he's a big-time injury risk. This is someone who's played 50 games in 3 of the last 8 seasons. If he gets seriously injured, which he very well could, this contract could end up turning into an albatross. Also, assuming he doesn't get injured, he's going to add 5-10 wins to our season total. We need to be losing games to have the best odds of getting a top 3 pick. The top 3 picks are where you are most likely to find a future All-Star.

You gotta pay somebody. Over the next few years we don't project to have any big-money guys on the roster, so if Porzingis is the one we keep, I'm fine with it.

High risk high reward guys are exactly the type of players a rebuilding team should spend their plentiful cap room on. If he stays healthy and plays well, we will have a very good trade asset. We can then trade him and tank. If he gets hurt and doesn't play, we will be unable to win games so we will tank. Either way, we tank, but it at least gives us a shot at adding more assets.

I think the same way about a guy like Ben Simmons.

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[9 and 20]

There is zero percent chance a 7 foot man from eastern Europe that dresses like Zoolander wants to sign up for a move to Oklahoma City.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

My prediction:

Beal traded
Kuzma S&T
Porzingis opts out and extends in Washington

I believe you're right...though if Beal is traded, I'd prefer to keep Kuzma.

IMO the #1 move is to trade Beal. His contract in combination with his actual ability to impact a game or lack thereof is whats holding this team down.

If we trade Beal for some kind of mix of draft picks and short term salary, im all for retaining Kuzma and KP. Id try to keep them here in the ballpark of 5/100 each. I like their skill level, the work ethic, and the leadership abilities of both. Theyre still young enough with a good mix of experience to be valuable to a rebuild/retool. Those 2, with the likes of Deni, Gaff, Delon, Kispert, add in some good rookies this year like a Black or Wallace, etc, Johnny Davis, Goodwin, Huff... We have a foundation to build on, acquiring draft picks, opening up cap room for the right free agent, etc., while staying competitive/playoff potential while being up & coming at the same time.

But Beal has to go or this team isnt getting anywhere.