2022-2023 Magic Trade and Free Agency Idea Thread III

[Blue_and_Whte]

Grady Dick is going to be better than Franz Wagner
Neither can play D
Franz lacks clutch and is intimidated
Grady is not as good at driving, but we don’t need that with Paulo

Are you high?

[drsd]

Grady Dick is going to be better than Franz Wagner
Neither can play D
Franz lacks clutch and is intimidated
Grady is not as good at driving, but we don’t need that with Paulo

Are you high?

And-1

At this point it seems a lock that F-Wagner will be a top-50 player in the NBA in his peak. Dick is projected to be a rotational player whose upside is to be a "glue-guy".

[JoshuaPotter]

Grady Dick is going to be better than Franz Wagner
Neither can play D
Franz lacks clutch and is intimidated
Grady is not as good at driving, but we don’t need that with Paulo

Are you high?

And-1

At this point it seems a lock that F-Wagner will be a top-50 player in the NBA in his peak. Dick is projected to be a rotational player whose upside is to be a "glue-guy".

Franz statistically was Mr 4th quarter for a good portion of the year. That's pretty clutch IMHO.

If Dick can play and guard SG better then Franz can then he fits in super well with this team. There is room enough on this team where Dick can be a 15-22 PPG player at his peak for sure.

Would not mind seeing this group potentially on the floor and seeing how they do....

PG Suggs
SG Dick
SF Franz
PF Paolo
C WCJ

I think Dick's ability to shoot will be respected day 1.

[jonbob17]

Grady Dick is going to be better than Franz Wagner
Neither can play D
Franz lacks clutch and is intimidated
Grady is not as good at driving, but we don’t need that with Paulo

Are you high?

And-1

At this point it seems a lock that F-Wagner will be a top-50 player in the NBA in his peak. Dick is projected to be a rotational player whose upside is to be a "glue-guy".

Franz is most likely a top 50 player right now, and if he were on a good team it would probably be obvious to everyone. He does all the things that help teams win basketball games. His biggest weakness is defense, and he's still a good defender.

advanced metrics are not the definitive end-all...but Franz finished 47th in RAPTOR WAR, and 10th in Real Plus-Minus.
RAPTOR box score metrics are influenced by the players on the court with you, the only guys ahead of Franz on bad teams were: Lillard, SGA, Porzingis, and Haliburton.

Real Plus Minus is an ESPN tool that estimates on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents and additional factors

If Franz were on the Warriors: A: Franz probably getting talked about as one of the best young players in the game, and maybe top 25 overall B: The Warriors might still be playing.

[eyriq]

Are you high?

And-1

At this point it seems a lock that F-Wagner will be a top-50 player in the NBA in his peak. Dick is projected to be a rotational player whose upside is to be a "glue-guy".

Franz is most likely a top 50 player right now, and if he were on a good team it would probably be obvious to everyone. He does all the things that help teams win basketball games. His biggest weakness is defense, and he's still a good defender.

advanced metrics are not the definitive end-all...but Franz finished 40th in RAPTOR, and 10th in Real Plus-Minus.
RAPTOR box score metrics are influenced by the players on the court with you, the only guys ahead of Franz on bad teams were: Lillard, SGA, Porzingis, and Haliburton.

Real Plus Minus is an ESPN tool that estimates on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents and additional factors

If Franz were on the Warriors: A: Franz probably getting talked about as one of the best young players in the game, and maybe top 25 overall B: The Warriors might still be playing.

What did you think about our boy Franz's DRPM?

It's historically high, implying he's already a super star defender.

[jonbob17]

And-1

At this point it seems a lock that F-Wagner will be a top-50 player in the NBA in his peak. Dick is projected to be a rotational player whose upside is to be a "glue-guy".

Franz is most likely a top 50 player right now, and if he were on a good team it would probably be obvious to everyone. He does all the things that help teams win basketball games. His biggest weakness is defense, and he's still a good defender.

advanced metrics are not the definitive end-all...but Franz finished 40th in RAPTOR, and 10th in Real Plus-Minus.
RAPTOR box score metrics are influenced by the players on the court with you, the only guys ahead of Franz on bad teams were: Lillard, SGA, Porzingis, and Haliburton.

Real Plus Minus is an ESPN tool that estimates on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents and additional factors

If Franz were on the Warriors: A: Franz probably getting talked about as one of the best young players in the game, and maybe top 25 overall B: The Warriors might still be playing.

What did you think about our boy Franz's DRPM?

It's historically high, implying he's already a super star defender.

Yah, so I was very surprised that Franz ranked 10th over all in Real adjusted plus minus. I see that he is 5th overall on the defensive calculation.

I realize i said defense his biggest weakness, but also that he was a good defender. I have watched enough Magic games these last two years to stand by that evaluation. Nothing wrong with being a good defender...like he's definitely a positive, or above average. I just don't see him as the a lock down wing defender that I believe is what defines a great perimeter defender. Like OG is ranked 18th, yah, i don't think Franz is as good as OG, maybe not close.

Again, I don't think these advanced metrics are definitive, but I do think they at least capture the narrative, the one here is I am saying Franz is probably a top 50th overall level of production. These models are picking up things we don't always notice, as they are based on tracking systems and such, and opponents efficiency.

Certainly not suggesting Franz is top 10(yet)...lol. Not that big of a Stan.

[JoshuaPotter]

Spoiler:

Franz is most likely a top 50 player right now, and if he were on a good team it would probably be obvious to everyone. He does all the things that help teams win basketball games. His biggest weakness is defense, and he's still a good defender.

advanced metrics are not the definitive end-all...but Franz finished 40th in RAPTOR, and 10th in Real Plus-Minus.
RAPTOR box score metrics are influenced by the players on the court with you, the only guys ahead of Franz on bad teams were: Lillard, SGA, Porzingis, and Haliburton.

Real Plus Minus is an ESPN tool that estimates on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents and additional factors

If Franz were on the Warriors: A: Franz probably getting talked about as one of the best young players in the game, and maybe top 25 overall B: The Warriors might still be playing.

What did you think about our boy Franz's DRPM?

It's historically high, implying he's already a super star defender.

Yah, so I was very surprised that Franz ranked 10th over all in Real adjusted plus minus. I see that he is 5th overall on the defensive calculation.

I realize i said defense his biggest weakness, but also that he was a good defender. I have watched enough Magic games these last two years to stand by that evaluation. Nothing wrong with being a good defender...like he's definitely a positive, or above average. I just don't see him as the a lock down wing defender that I believe is what defines a great perimeter defender. Like OG is ranked 18th, yah, i don't think Franz is as good as OG, maybe not close.

Again, I don't think these advanced metrics are definitive, but I do think they at least capture the narrative, the one here is I am saying Franz is probably a top 50th overall level of production. These models are picking up things we don't always notice, as they are based on tracking systems and such, and opponents efficiency.

Certainly not suggesting Franz is top 10(yet)...lol. Not that big of a Stan.

I think what you are trying to describe is on court effectiveness, vs stats, vs game plan.

Statistically Franz is an excellent defender.

On the court, Franz doesn't really give anything to the opponent.

The game plan is Suggs is our lock down defensive specialist.

Therefore I conclude to you that Franz is NOT the defensive anchor but when combined with solid defenders around him and a defensive specialist in Isaac / Suggs, it propels him super high.

I really think we are under rating the defense our second unit of Mo, Franz, Cole, Suggs, almost anyone at the 5 had.

[Skybox]

Would not mind seeing this group potentially on the floor and seeing how they do....

PG Suggs
SG Dick
SF Franz
PF Paolo
C WCJ

At this point, it's pretty difficult to make a statistical case for Suggs at PG, but I see I'm not the only one that can't quit the idea. I think he's the QB. He's oozes tough leadership from the point of attack and makes big plays at big moments. Lots of intangibles that, admittedly, can be easily dissected for now. I really think we need a high-scoring SG (not just a spot up shooter) that can lead the offense, run the PnR with Paolo, create for himself and others...with Suggs next to him, keeping things under control defensively, hitting open 3's from a couple of spots, and pulling out the big plays when needed. Think Eric Snow to Iverson. Think BJ Armstrong or John Paxson to MJ. Or, last night we saw Christian Braun to Jamal Murray...When I'm throwing around Simons, Poole, Nick Smith, Keyonte George - I always imagine Suggs next to them, filling in the blanks....He's not classic CP3 or Stockton-it's a different era and, potentially a different role. Who's the perfect backcourt mate to a guy like prime Lead Guard Harden? (I don't want Harden, or Iverson...just making a point)

[eyriq]

Spoiler:

What did you think about our boy Franz's DRPM?

It's historically high, implying he's already a super star defender.

Yah, so I was very surprised that Franz ranked 10th over all in Real adjusted plus minus. I see that he is 5th overall on the defensive calculation.

I realize i said defense his biggest weakness, but also that he was a good defender. I have watched enough Magic games these last two years to stand by that evaluation. Nothing wrong with being a good defender...like he's definitely a positive, or above average. I just don't see him as the a lock down wing defender that I believe is what defines a great perimeter defender. Like OG is ranked 18th, yah, i don't think Franz is as good as OG, maybe not close.

Again, I don't think these advanced metrics are definitive, but I do think they at least capture the narrative, the one here is I am saying Franz is probably a top 50th overall level of production. These models are picking up things we don't always notice, as they are based on tracking systems and such, and opponents efficiency.

Certainly not suggesting Franz is top 10(yet)...lol. Not that big of a Stan.

I think what you are trying to describe is on court effectiveness, vs stats, vs game plan.

Statistically Franz is an excellent defender.

On the court, Franz doesn't really give anything to the opponent.

The game plan is Suggs is our lock down defensive specialist.

Therefore I conclude to you that Franz is NOT the defensive anchor but when combined with solid defenders around him and a defensive specialist in Isaac / Suggs, it propels him super high.

I really think we are under rating the defense our second unit of Mo, Franz, Cole, Suggs, almost anyone at the 5 had.

That makes a lot of sense. Interesting! These plus minus stats are really unstable on low sample sizes and our injury history and youth makes it a really tough eval.

[eyriq]

Holy moly, Hollinger loves him some FVV.
https://theathletic.com/4590137/2023/06/08/nba-top-free-agents-kyrie-irving-james-harden?source=user-shared-article

3. Fred VanVleet, PG, 29, Toronto (player option): $46,873,792
I sometimes wonder why there is such intense focus on Irving and the Lakers when VanVleet is nearly as good and vastly more reliable. This BORD$ valuation is slightly bloated by Nick Nurse’s insistence on playing his starters 47.9 minutes per game, resulting in VanVleet’s minutes estimate being unrealistically high for what he’s likely to face next season — whether under a new coach in Toronto or as a free agent.

The other twist here is that VanVleet only has seven years of experience, which means his max is “just” $40.2 million — a relative bargain, at least in the first year of a multi-year deal. A good deal structure for him would be three years with a fourth-year player option, which lets him cash in on a 10-year veteran max for 35 percent of the cap if he’s still playing at a high level in 2026.
VanVleet certainly will opt out of his final year at $22.8 million and has no incentive to sign an extension yet because even the revised extension rules in the new CBA won’t net him nearly enough.

[jonbob17]

Just thinking outloud...I wonder if the Bulls would be interested in:

Markelle Fultz for Lonzo Ball and 2024 Portland first round pick (top 14 protected for 4 years).

Reports are saying Bulls don't think Lonzo Ball will never play again, Bulls owe him 2/42, Bulls still seem like they want to compete.

Desperate for a tall guard that can shoot, pass, and play D.

We add a PG in the meantime, Chris Paul, Delon Wright, Tre Jones.

Also just like the idea of setting the Devos's pile of money on fire.

[jonbob17]

Holy moly, Hollinger loves him some FVV.

Hollinger doesn't love FVV...his model, Bord, does.

[pepe1991]

Just thinking outloud...I wonder if the Bulls would be interested in:

Markelle Fultz for Lonzo Ball and 2024 Portland first round pick (top 14 protected for 4 years).

Reports are saying Bulls don't think Lonzo Ball will never play again, Bulls owe him 2/42, Bulls still seem like they want to compete.

Desperate for a tall guard that can shoot, pass, and play D.

We add a PG in the meantime, Chris Paul, Delon Wright, Tre Jones.

Also just like the idea of setting the Devos's pile of money on fire.

If he is done than i think they can ask for medical retirement, pay him his money ( or insurence) but won't count on their cap.

[jonbob17]

Just thinking outloud...I wonder if the Bulls would be interested in:

Markelle Fultz for Lonzo Ball and 2024 Portland first round pick (top 14 protected for 4 years).

Reports are saying Bulls don't think Lonzo Ball will never play again, Bulls owe him 2/42, Bulls still seem like they want to compete.

Desperate for a tall guard that can shoot, pass, and play D.

We add a PG in the meantime, Chris Paul, Delon Wright, Tre Jones.

Also just like the idea of setting the Devos's pile of money on fire.

If he is done than i think they can ask for medical retirement, pay him his money ( or insurence) but won't count on their cap.

You are right, but the league will only make that exception if it is a certainty. If it is a certainty, than no reason to for the Magic to do it anyways, part of the allure of eating the money at least for this year would be some possibility of him coming back in 24-25, and having his bird rights.

Probably a bad idea, i just thought he was having another knee surgery...just read that he had some sort of experimental cartilage transplant, he'd be the first professional athlete to ever return from it, though they didn't say how many professionals have had the procedure, and that he is young to be having the surgery.

[MagicManMike]

Looking at the roster and the cap flexibility we need to wait and make push for a free agent or big trade next summer.

I really like our draft position of 6 and 11. I am thinking back to the year of heart and hustle where we barely missed the playoffs and we had a ton of cap room with and a ROY in Mike Miller.

I believe we do the following

1) Keep both picks
2) Draft a Euro with our second rounder and stash him
3) EXTEND FULTZ to a team friendly deal
4) Resign Mo and Bitadze
5) Trade Harris (he will stunt the growth of our draft picks)

Then go in to training camp letting everyone fight it out for minutes knowing that Pablo, Franz & Carter will get their minutes at any position.

It’s time to take the talent we have and maximize its value THIS SEASON so when we make the playoffs we have other players wanting to come here by trade or by free agency.

I think we have a group of players that really are on the cusp of either showing they have a lot more to offer or they have hit a ceiling. Those players being Isaac, Fultz, Suggs, Anthony, Bol, Houstan, Bitadze.

That’s 10 players plus our two draft picks. 9 of which it’s their year to show what they can add to this team AND ALSO MOSELY TO SHOW HE CAN COACH AND GROW THIS TALENT.

Because next offseason not only do you have the free agents you have the unhappy potential free agents of 2025 and 2026. If we have a great year and develop this half of these guys we have maximized our trade assets and in a much better position to know what this team really needs.

With Fultz extended we would have 80 million in contracts which would give us 50-60 million under the cap to throw at Jalen Brown.

One more year of Boston choking and he will want a fresh start.

It also gives us the expirings of Cole, Harris, Chuma and Bol to trade IN SEASON

[eyriq]

Holy moly, Hollinger loves him some FVV.

Hollinger doesn't love FVV...his model, Bord, does.

Yeah, fair point. I'm shocked that his models values him so highly given his lack of efficiency.

[Redwood]

Looking at the roster and the cap flexibility we need to wait and make push for a free agent or big trade next summer.

I really like our draft position of 6 and 11. I am thinking back to the year of heart and hustle where we barely missed the playoffs and we had a ton of cap room with and a ROY in Mike Miller.

I believe we do the following

1) Keep both picks
2) Draft a Euro with our second rounder and stash him
3) EXTEND FULTZ to a team friendly deal
4) Resign Mo and Bitadze
5) Trade Harris (he will stunt the growth of our draft picks)

Then go in to training camp letting everyone fight it out for minutes knowing that Pablo, Franz & Carter will get their minutes at any position.

It’s time to take the talent we have and maximize its value THIS SEASON so when we make the playoffs we have other players wanting to come here by trade or by free agency.

I think we have a group of players that really are on the cusp of either showing they have a lot more to offer or they have hit a ceiling. Those players being Isaac, Fultz, Suggs, Anthony, Bol, Houstan, Bitadze.

That’s 10 players plus our two draft picks. 9 of which it’s their year to show what they can add to this team AND ALSO MOSELY TO SHOW HE CAN COACH AND GROW THIS TALENT.

Because next offseason not only do you have the free agents you have the unhappy potential free agents of 2025 and 2026. If we have a great year and develop this half of these guys we have maximized our trade assets and in a much better position to know what this team really needs.

With Fultz extended we would have 80 million in contracts which would give us 50-60 million under the cap to throw at Jalen Brown.

One more year of Boston choking and he will want a fresh start.

It also gives us the expirings of Cole, Harris, Chuma and Bol to trade IN SEASON

There's no logical reason to extend Fultz right now. His game needs major improvement and of course his injury risk. If we extend Fultz we're showing we have no standards and no vision for the future. He has to earn the extension, which so far he objectively has not. "You can't make the club in the tub" and "The best ability is availability", or whatever other cliche you want to use, you absolutely cannot extend someone who sits on the bench with injuries more than he plays, who can't provide spacing or draw fouls, with poor defense mixed in. He's the most obvious player to not extend on this entire roster.

[Knightro]

Yeah, fair point. I'm shocked that his models values him so highly given his lack of efficiency.

I'll continue to stress this because it's relevant. VanVleet is one of the lowest turnover point guards in the entire NBA and that's a huge reason why advanced metrics love him so much. Turnover avoidance is part of offensive efficiency.

The Raptors were 27th in the NBA in FG% and 28th in 3PT% as a team, one of the worst in the league at actually putting the ball in the basket.

Yet, in spite of all that, they were still 13th in ORTG.

How was that possible? Because they were the lowest turnover team in the league by a mile (and they were very good at OREB).

The Magic were 27th in turnover rate.

[jonbob17]

Holy moly, Hollinger loves him some FVV.

Hollinger doesn't love FVV...his model, Bord, does.

Yeah, fair point. I'm shocked that his models values him so highly given his lack of efficiency.

Its the volume of threes, and the fact that the Raptors are much worse on offense when FVV is off the floor. They don't have another PG on the team. They are kind of like the Magic were early in the season when FVV is off the floor, Barnes and Siakam running the offense. Trent is no help.
If they aren't changing things up might be a reason they match any offer.

[Black and Blue]

Looking at the roster and the cap flexibility we need to wait and make push for a free agent or big trade next summer.

I really like our draft position of 6 and 11. I am thinking back to the year of heart and hustle where we barely missed the playoffs and we had a ton of cap room with and a ROY in Mike Miller.

I believe we do the following

1) Keep both picks
2) Draft a Euro with our second rounder and stash him
3) EXTEND FULTZ to a team friendly deal
4) Resign Mo and Bitadze
5) Trade Harris (he will stunt the growth of our draft picks)

Then go in to training camp letting everyone fight it out for minutes knowing that Pablo, Franz & Carter will get their minutes at any position.

It’s time to take the talent we have and maximize its value THIS SEASON so when we make the playoffs we have other players wanting to come here by trade or by free agency.

I think we have a group of players that really are on the cusp of either showing they have a lot more to offer or they have hit a ceiling. Those players being Isaac, Fultz, Suggs, Anthony, Bol, Houstan, Bitadze.

That’s 10 players plus our two draft picks. 9 of which it’s their year to show what they can add to this team AND ALSO MOSELY TO SHOW HE CAN COACH AND GROW THIS TALENT.

Because next offseason not only do you have the free agents you have the unhappy potential free agents of 2025 and 2026. If we have a great year and develop this half of these guys we have maximized our trade assets and in a much better position to know what this team really needs.

With Fultz extended we would have 80 million in contracts which would give us 50-60 million under the cap to throw at Jalen Brown.

One more year of Boston choking and he will want a fresh start.

It also gives us the expirings of Cole, Harris, Chuma and Bol to trade IN SEASON

You made me log in just so I could and 1 your comment. This is a great, rational, smart bit of writing here.