Markelle Fultz ceiling ?

[Knightro]

All jokes aside, I don't hate Markelle at all. I don't even dislike him as much as some people on this board probably think.

I think he has a very good backup PG skill set. His ability to score from 15 feet and in is very good. I like his ability to make plays in transition and he's also shown ability to defend in spurts.

I just think he's badly miscast as a starter given his shortcomings and given the way the game is currently played.

Combine those shortcomings with the current limitation of our two young building blocks...

It's just not the right fit.

[VFX]

All jokes aside, I don't hate Markelle at all. I don't even dislike him as much as some people on this board probably think.

I think he has a very good backup PG skill set. His ability to score from 15 feet and in is very good. I like his ability to make plays in transition and he's also shown ability to defend in spurts.

I just think he's badly miscast as a starter given his shortcomings and given the way the game is currently played.

Combine those shortcomings with the current limitation of our two young building blocks...

It's just not the right fit.

This is where I am.

Markelle could be a starting point guard with some development, a good playmaking off guard, and a roster of capable shooters. That team isn’t Orlando.

I will absolutely dislike him if he is overpaid in Orlando for what he has shown. Hopefully that doesn’t happen.

[jjohns828]

All jokes aside, I don't hate Markelle at all. I don't even dislike him as much as some people on this board probably think.

I think he has a very good backup PG skill set. His ability to score from 15 feet and in is very good. I like his ability to make plays in transition and he's also shown ability to defend in spurts.

I just think he's badly miscast as a starter given his shortcomings and given the way the game is currently played.

Combine those shortcomings with the current limitation of our two young building blocks...

It's just not the right fit.

This is what it comes down to for me. I think Fultz could be a good fit for the right team but I just don't think that is a team that is built to maximize the skills of Wagner and Banchero.

[Bensational]

All jokes aside, I don't hate Markelle at all. I don't even dislike him as much as some people on this board probably think.

I think he has a very good backup PG skill set. His ability to score from 15 feet and in is very good. I like his ability to make plays in transition and he's also shown ability to defend in spurts.

I just think he's badly miscast as a starter given his shortcomings and given the way the game is currently played.

Combine those shortcomings with the current limitation of our two young building blocks...

It's just not the right fit.

I don’t think our young building blocks have limitations though, they’re just developing and from decent to above average baselines. They’ll both add more 3’s to their game and improve their efficiency. Having a PG with gravity in the paint helps them in that regard.

If Fultz returns with a 3, does that change your opinion on him as a starter? What level of competency from 3 does it need to be to move the needle?

Genuine question - who is the ‘ideal’ PG next to Paolo and Franz? Are we looking for a PG who can develop a 2-man game with Paolo to emulate Jokic/Murray? Because Paolo and Franz aren’t a ‘duo’ like that. What are we doing with those guys and their development as playmakers? How much will they be running point in comparison to the PG?

Not being facetious with those questions, but I think next season will be about answering some of them.

[GelbeWand09]

If Fultz returns with a 3, does that change your opinion on him as a starter? What level of competency from 3 does it need to be to move the needle?

There are probably at least 500-1000 professional basektball players who would be NBA players if they could improve a skill. There are probably 100 end of the bench NBA players who would be clear starters or even fringe all-stars if they could significantly improve a skill, but how many can do that in reality at 25 or older? How many positive examples exist out of all those thousands of negative ones over the the last 10, 20, 30... years? That's about the likelihood with Markelle. That's how realistic you have to be. He has to significantly increase his % while at the same time significantly increasing his volume. If you wanna bet on this this, your chance of winning that bet is pretty pretty low i guess.

Its like waiting for AG to develop a PG/T-Mac like handle. At one point you have to accept it wont happen and thats not his role (in Markelle's case our starting PG who can shoot)

+ expectations of Paolo's 3point shooting should not be too high too. It is much more likely that his realistic best case is slightly below leaque average at mid volume. You probably always need shooting around him, even if he becomes a great one, it still helps much more if your PG can shoot too.

[Bensational]

If Fultz returns with a 3, does that change your opinion on him as a starter? What level of competency from 3 does it need to be to move the needle?

There are probably at least 500-1000 professional basektball players who would be NBA players if they could improve a skill. There are probably 100 end of the bench NBA players who would be clear starters or even fringe all-stars if they could significantly improve a skill, but how many can do that in reality at 25 or older? How many positive examples exist out of all those thousands of negative ones over the the last 10, 20, 30... years? That's about the likelihood with Markelle. That's how realistic you have to be. He has to significantly increase his % while at the same time significantly increasing his volume. If you wanna bet on this this, your chance of winning that bet is pretty pretty low i guess.

Plenty of players have added and improved their shooting over the years though, it’s not like handles or shot blocking instincts. But Fultz is a different case to me. He was a shooter and a good one. He had whatever issues with his shoulder and maybe the yips, plus other injuries. But at the end of the season he was looking fully healthy finally, and he showed glimpses of bringing his old form back. That’s worth a gamble from me for the next year or at least until the deadline - unless a mind blowing opportunity comes before then.

[Bensational]

+ expectations of Paolo's 3point shooting should not be too high too. It is much more likely that his realistic best case is slightly below leaque average at mid volume. You probably always need shooting around him, even if he becomes a great one, it still helps much more if your PG can shoot too.

I think it’s going to be a big part of his game because he’s a perimeter creator. He’s on 4 attempts already and I wouldn’t be surprised if it was double that within a couple of seasons like Julius Randle, Tatum, Brown.

But yeah, you want a PG who can shoot with him. This is Fultz’s time to grow into that PG or we look elsewhere.

[GelbeWand09]

If Fultz returns with a 3, does that change your opinion on him as a starter? What level of competency from 3 does it need to be to move the needle?

There are probably at least 500-1000 professional basektball players who would be NBA players if they could improve a skill. There are probably 100 end of the bench NBA players who would be clear starters or even fringe all-stars if they could significantly improve a skill, but how many can do that in reality at 25 or older? How many positive examples exist out of all those thousands of negative ones over the the last 10, 20, 30... years? That's about the likelihood with Markelle. That's how realistic you have to be. He has to significantly increase his % while at the same time significantly increasing his volume. If you wanna bet on this this, your chance of winning that bet is pretty pretty low i guess.

Plenty of players have added and improved their shooting over the years though, it’s not like handles or shot blocking instincts. But Fultz is a different case to me. He was a shooter and a good one. He had whatever issues with his shoulder and maybe the yips, plus other injuries. But at the end of the season he was looking fully healthy finally, and he showed glimpses of bringing his old form back. That’s worth a gamble from me for the next year or at least until the deadline - unless a mind blowing opportunity comes before then.

Sure they improve. Like AG, horrible shooter becomes below average shooter. You almost never find players that are so bad at it at such low volume like Markelle and become good shooters. It would be worth the gamble if he had other great skills. I can understand Philly waiting years for Ben, because he was elite at other stuff & still helped them win games despite his shooting, but i'm not willing to hope for a player, who is one of the worst starters at his position & is 25, to add something that is highly unlikely & hinders the development of the 2 important players, who need all the spacing they can get.

Edit: I have no problem with Markelle as a backup or a starter next year. My concern is mainly a looming big extension, which could waste years of the Paolo/Franz duo, if he doesnt magically become a leaque average shooter on mid volume.

[KillMonger]

don't know....if the jumper is real then it's higher than people think

[Knightro]

I don’t think our young building blocks have limitations though, they’re just developing and from decent to above average baselines. They’ll both add more 3’s to their game and improve their efficiency. Having a PG with gravity in the paint helps them in that regard.

If Fultz returns with a 3, does that change your opinion on him as a starter? What level of competency from 3 does it need to be to move the needle?

Genuine question - who is the ‘ideal’ PG next to Paolo and Franz? Are we looking for a PG who can develop a 2-man game with Paolo to emulate Jokic/Murray? Because Paolo and Franz aren’t a ‘duo’ like that. What are we doing with those guys and their development as playmakers? How much will they be running point in comparison to the PG?

Not being facetious with those questions, but I think next season will be about answering some of them.

To be fair, I did say current limitations.

I certainly don't expect Paolo to be a sub 30% 3PT shooter his entire career. Nor do I expect Franz to only be a 36% 3PT shooter. But development isn't always linear and these things do take time.

Now...

If Fultz returns with a 3, of course the whole calculus changes. If he shows next season he will consistently take and make threes at a volume that helps lead to a spike in offensive efficiency, then he obviously moves from a "do not resign" to a "must resign" - I don't want to put a firm number on what that is or isn't though. I think it will be clear once we see him play if it's enough.

In terms of the "ideal" PG to play next to Paolo and Franz - I naturally expect both guys, but Paolo especially, as they get more experience to shoulder even heavier playmaking responsibilities to take advantage of their passing skill and willingness to pass as well as their gravity as slashers.

That IMO puts an even bigger premium on having capable (and ideally dynamic) shooting at both starting guard spots as well as throughout the roster.

I agree with you that we *should* have a pretty firm answer on what Fultz is, what he isn't, and what he can or can't still become by the end of next season. I just hope the Magic don't extend him first.

[Bergmaniac]

don't know....if the jumper is real then it's higher than people think

How is this even possible? Half of this board is convinced he'd be an automatic all-star with a half-decent 3 ball.

[three3d]

Sorry not trying to change subject in this thread so I’ll try to ask it in a way that goes with it. Would Gradey Dick and Jordan Hawkins be complementary to Markell’s game? The push back on Fultz is his age/development, 3 point FG % and willingness to pull up, and his PnR game. Drafting two capable 3 point shooters is a must if we indeed keep both picks. Im impressed by Jordan Hawkins tape, the screens he runs off of to get open looks and the offense UConn ran is pro ready. Having a point guard that can run pick and roll with a cutting/slashing to the rim Paolo, and Franz running to the elbow/wing , and a 3 point threat coming of back cuts and down screens that can make those type of shots (Jordan Hawkins?) IMO this would be the best way to run the offense for us. That being said it still leaves me thinking Josh Giddey is the guy to run this offense for us. At 6’8” he also can attack the rim off PnR action and is already a great passer.

[Audi]

Considering one of the first roster moves Weham made when taking the reigns was send Elfrid Payton packing, the best indication of Fultz’s realistic ceiling will be revealed in whatever the FO decides to do with him in the very near future. Weltman on why we moved on from Payton:

”Three-point shooting has become increasingly important … and this is where the league is going. You can design teams in certain ways that aren’t the norm, but in the NBA right now – and it’s only going in that (shooting) direction even more – it’s to have off-the-bounce shooters in the backcourt.”

So we can rest assured our FO is aware of the fit issue right now. We are likely on the same page there. But unlike us, they also get to talk to him, watch him in the gym, have access to his medicals, talk with his teammates and trainers, any specialists they bring in, etc. Weham may be “patient” (painfully slow at times), but they’ve made no indication that they are stupid.

[eyriq]

Considering one of the first roster moves Weham made when taking the reigns was send Elfrid Payton packing, the best indication of Fultz’s realistic ceiling will be revealed in whatever the FO a decided to do with him in the very near future. Weltman on why we moved on from Payton:

”Three-point shooting has become increasingly important … and this is where the league is going. You can design teams in certain ways that aren’t the norm, but in the NBA right now – and it’s only going in that (shooting) direction even more – it’s to have off-the-bounce shooters in the backcourt.”

This is great insight into this process. It would seem to almost guarantee Fultz isn't extended. He is literally a Payton clone right now. In a world where he is extended, I would have to assume that their evaluation of his 3-point shot is very optimistic.

[basketballRob]

Considering one of the first roster moves Weham made when taking the reigns was send Elfrid Payton packing, the best indication of Fultz’s realistic ceiling will be revealed in whatever the FO a decided to do with him in the very near future. Weltman on why we moved on from Payton:

”Three-point shooting has become increasingly important … and this is where the league is going. You can design teams in certain ways that aren’t the norm, but in the NBA right now – and it’s only going in that (shooting) direction even more – it’s to have off-the-bounce shooters in the backcourt.”

This is great insight into this process. It would seem to almost guarantee Fultz isn't extended. He is literally a Payton clone right now. In a world where he is extended, I would have to assume that their evaluation of his 3-point shot is very optimistic.

Fultz has shown the ability to improve his shooting, and Payton never did. Fultz can shoot a lot better than Payton already and doesn't appear to have plateued yet.

I still think we probably draft Black, and Fultz gets moved in a deal around the deadline for a player like Beal. Fultz, Harris, and JI plus 2 picks for Beal.

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[Audi]

Considering one of the first roster moves Weham made when taking the reigns was send Elfrid Payton packing, the best indication of Fultz’s realistic ceiling will be revealed in whatever the FO a decided to do with him in the very near future. Weltman on why we moved on from Payton:

This is great insight into this process. It would seem to almost guarantee Fultz isn't extended. He is literally a Payton clone right now. In a world where he is extended, I would have to assume that their evaluation of his 3-point shot is very optimistic.

Fultz has shown the ability to improve his shooting, and Payton never did. Fultz can shoot a lot better than Payton already and doesn't appear to have plateued yet.

I still think we probably draft Black, and Fultz gets moved in a deal around the deadline for a player like Beal. Fultz, Harris, and JI plus 2 picks for Beal.

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Exactly. For me the low volume of 3s at a low %, pretty much where the similarity ends. Fultz, with well less than half the career (500 vs 191 games), is more efficient, much better FT shooter, and most importantly - once had a good 3pt shot. Elfrid never did. The hope for him when he was drafted was that his elite college defense, passing, and finishing could make up for the lack of perimeter shooting but he never became that guy on a high level…only showed glimpses.

[RichCollab]

Does Fultz fit the suns? They are in the market for a new PG. Do the Suns have anything that would make us better?

[VFX]

Sorry not trying to change subject in this thread so I’ll try to ask it in a way that goes with it. Would Gradey Dick and Jordan Hawkins be complementary to Markell’s game? The push back on Fultz is his age/development, 3 point FG % and willingness to pull up, and his PnR game. Drafting two capable 3 point shooters is a must if we indeed keep both picks. Im impressed by Jordan Hawkins tape, the screens he runs off of to get open looks and the offense UConn ran is pro ready. Having a point guard that can run pick and roll with a cutting/slashing to the rim Paolo, and Franz running to the elbow/wing , and a 3 point threat coming of back cuts and down screens that can make those type of shots (Jordan Hawkins?) IMO this would be the best way to run the offense for us. That being said it still leaves me thinking Josh Giddey is the guy to run this offense for us. At 6’8” he also can attack the rim off PnR action and is already a great passer.

No.

The problem is that Paolo and Franz aren’t going anywhere for the foreseeable future. The offense has to open up, especially for Paolo. That means that one guy on the perimeter isn’t going to solve all of the spacing issues even if that guy is Gradey Dick or Jordan Hawkins.

Paolo needs to be in an efficient PnR game. The guy is monster sized with 2/3 level scoring ability. Fultz simply doesn’t run that effectively without a shot. The floor shrinks with Fultz/doesn’t matter/Franz/Paolo. Both guards need to have an average shot.

The premise to your second question about Giddey doesn’t solve any of those issues with Fultz spacing. Yes Giddey is a better passer in a PnR. Regardless, I don’t believe a 1:1 trade is possible (highly unlikely) due to the money and value involved in such a trade.

[basketballRob]

Sorry not trying to change subject in this thread so I’ll try to ask it in a way that goes with it. Would Gradey Dick and Jordan Hawkins be complementary to Markell’s game? The push back on Fultz is his age/development, 3 point FG % and willingness to pull up, and his PnR game. Drafting two capable 3 point shooters is a must if we indeed keep both picks. Im impressed by Jordan Hawkins tape, the screens he runs off of to get open looks and the offense UConn ran is pro ready. Having a point guard that can run pick and roll with a cutting/slashing to the rim Paolo, and Franz running to the elbow/wing , and a 3 point threat coming of back cuts and down screens that can make those type of shots (Jordan Hawkins?) IMO this would be the best way to run the offense for us. That being said it still leaves me thinking Josh Giddey is the guy to run this offense for us. At 6’8” he also can attack the rim off PnR action and is already a great passer.

No.

The problem is that Paolo and Franz aren’t going anywhere for the foreseeable future. The offense has to open up, especially for Paolo. That means that one guy on the perimeter isn’t going to solve all of the spacing issues even if that guy is Gradey Dick or Jordan Hawkins.

Paolo needs to be in an efficient PnR game. The guy is monster sized with 2/3 level scoring ability. Fultz simply doesn’t run that effectively without a shot.

The premise to your second question about Giddey doesn’t solve any of those issues with Fultz spacing. Yes Giddey is a better passer in a PnR. Regardless, I don’t believe a 1:1 trade is possible (highly unlikely) due to the money and value involved in such a trade.

Giddey also can't guard guards. That leaves you with Franz guarding the SG.

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[RichCollab]

Does Fultz fit the suns? They are in the market for a new PG. Do the Suns have anything that would make us better?

I just checked their roster… they have nothing beyond their top 3. Maybe multiple team trade with Suns where they send Ayton somewhere and we get something from the 3rd team.