The Official 2023 Draft Thread

[gambitx777]

Like I said all I see in black is an athletic kid who can't shoot well, has a terrible artist to turn over ratio and looks like the next Dante exum and at best MCW

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[Dat2U]

I mean the left overs from the front office who was all in on Johnny Davis last draft cycle is currently infatuated with Anthony Black. That's pretty damning evidence right there lol.

I'm honestly tired of these jack-of-all trade types who cannot shoot. The Wizards draft history is littered with these types of players who were busts. Every year its 'you can teach shooting' and like queridiculo said its complete garbage. Slight improvement is possible ... significant improvement is extremely unlikely. For every Kawhi there are probably another 1000 prospects that never improved.

[gambitx777]

I mean the left overs from the front office who was all in on Johnny Davis last draft cycle is currently infatuated with Anthony Black. That's pretty damning evidence right there lol.

I'm honestly tired of these jack-of-all trade types who cannot shoot. The Wizards draft history is littered with these types of players who were busts. Every year its 'you can teach shooting' and like queridiculo said its complete garbage. Slight improvement is possible ... significant improvement is extremely unlikely. For every Kawhi there are probably another 1000 prospects that never improved.

I can't agree more. Like these 6-6 to 6-8 hyper athletic point guards almost never work out or work out for long. MCW was good for like 3 seasons, signs of Ben Simmons imploding showed after about 5 way earlier than most people wanted to realise, dante exum never was and a million others just like him flopped. For every josh giddy(still time to implode) or magic Johnson there are a trillion who just don't work out. These guys aren't good investments unless they are more sure things.

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[gambitx777]

Honestly the entire scouting department needs to go the only thing this scouting department ever did really well was undrafted free agents.

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[payitforward]

My top 9 are pretty much locked into order at this point.

I would trade up for anyone in the top 4.

1. C Victor Wembanyama
2. G Scoot Henderson
3. F Brandon Miller
4. G Amen Thompson

I would love if either fell to 8 but I doubt I would sacrifice assets to move up to get either

5. F Cam Whitmore
6. G Ausur Thompson

I would be fine if any of these guys were our pick at 8 but I would not be against a slight trade down to obtain additional assets.

7. F Taylor Hendricks
8. F Gradey Dick
9. G Cason Wallace

Not much separation in this group to me. The first 5 are strong trade down candidates. The last 2 look like they'll be slightly overdrafted.

10. F Brice Sensabaugh
11. G Keyonte George
12. G Kobe Bufkin
13. F Bilal Coulibaly
14. C Dereck Lively II
15. F Jarace Walker
16. G Anthony Black

If we acquire an extra 1st, this is the group I'd love to choose from.

17. G Brandin Podziemski
18. G Jordan Hawkins
19. F Leonard Miller
20. F Jett Howard
21. G Nick Smith Jr
22. F Dariq Whitehead
23. F Maxwell Lewis
24. G Colby Jones
25. F Kris Murray

Strong group of 2nd round quality prospects. A solid one should be available at 42.

26. F Tristan Vukcevic
27. F Ben Sheppard
28. G Marcus Sasser
29. G Jalen Hood-Schifino
30. F Julian Strawther
31. F Jaime Jacquez Jr
32. G Amari Bailey
33. G Terquavion Smith
34. F Jordan Walsh
35. F Julian Phillips
36. C Trayce Jackson-Davis
37. C Noah Clowney
38. G Rayan Rupert
39. C James Nnaji
40. F Olivier-Maxence Prosper
41. F G.G. Jackson
42. F Kobe Brown

This is outstanding, dat! I only wish you were the one managing this draft!

[payitforward]

I look at black and see ...Dyson daniels. I would rather not grab a bust like that.

Dyson Daniels is a bust...?

[gambitx777]

I look at black and see ...Dyson daniels. I would rather not grab a bust like that.

Dyson Daniels is a bust...?

I believe I talked about exum and MCW first. But yeah I don't like Daniels out look and don't think he's gonna be what he was hyped to be.

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[Dat2U]

I look at black and see ...Dyson daniels. I would rather not grab a bust like that.

Dyson Daniels is a bust...?

No. However I think there are some legitimate concerns about his future on the ball due to his shooting/scoring issues. He may be able to transition to a 3/D wing succesfully if it can hit enough open shots.

[gambitx777]

If you put a gun to my head and ask.
Pick one.
Cason Wallace and his medical issues.
Or
Black and legit concerns he can transition to a legit NBA point guard with his advanced stats

I'm taking Wallace every time

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[pcbothwel]

I look at black and see ...Dyson daniels. I would rather not grab a bust like that.

Dyson Daniels is a bust...?

Im out on this convo as Im just repeating myself. Anthony Black has elite positional size and elite feel/IQ/vision.
He's Delon Wright with more vision/feel and better pop athletically. Or Derrick White with better passing.

Im not trying to rag on anyone, but I think people have been duped too much in recent history about versatile forwards with decent vision (I.E. Jalen Williams, Dalen Terry, Cunningham, Barnes, Franz Wagner, Deni, etc.). So people compare Black to these guys and worry about the shooting.
Black needs to be compared to Lonzo, Lamelo, Haliburton, and Giddey. Black is a TRUE PG. Im fascinated that everyone is quick to put the Thompson twins a tier or 2 above him. Black is the same size, but better vision, better defender, higher IQ/Feel, better spatial awareness, better touch/finishing... No tangible difference in shooting.
Taking a guy like Hendricks over Black is mind numbingly stupid.

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[pcbothwel]

I look at black and see ...Dyson daniels. I would rather not grab a bust like that.

Dyson Daniels is a bust...?

No. However I think there are some legitimate concerns about his future on the ball due to his shooting/scoring issues. He may be able to transition to a 3/D wing succesfully if it can hit enough open shots.

Agreed...but passing needs to be broken down into a few areas. Vision, processing/decision making, accuracy.
Some guys see the floor really well, but they dont quite process the right play quick enough... or they do, but their pass is slightly off target and causes shooter to reset.
Black is a plus/elite in all of these.

[Frichuela]

If you put a gun to my head and ask.
Pick one.
Cason Wallace and his medical issues.
Or
Black and legit concerns he can transition to a legit NBA point guard with his advanced stats

I'm taking Wallace every time

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I think gambitx is making a valid case here.

The injury concerns with Wallace are key and, for that, we have to trust the professionals in the field (i.e. Wizards medical team) to make the right assessment.

Other than that, his 1 and done statistical production shows promise:

* Compared to Black. Defensively, both are strong performers. Wallace had the statistical edge on steals and DBPM but Black has better rebounding and DWS. Offensively, Wallace had clearly better production: better 3pt %, FT % and assists and much better assists/TO ratio. Also Wallace has better EFG%, 3PA rate, OBPM and OWS. Offensively, Black is only better in his impressive FTA rate.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=anthony-black--cason-wallace

* Compared to former Kentucky guards. Wallace holds his own statistically, particularly defensively where he has arguably the best defensive stats compared to Maxey, Quickley, SGA and Wall. Wallace was best at steals and DBPM and tied as the best at blocks. Offensively, he is the worst at points/36 but is tied with SGA for the best EFG%.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=cason-wallace--john-wall--shai-gilgeous-alexander--tyrese-maxey--immanuel-quickley--tyty-washington

I think if Ausar drops his upside probably merits the pick but if the decision is between Black or Wallace, the latter looks like a better prospect (assuming the medical side is satisfactory). Black's inability to shoot well from 3 is worrying and fit-wise it would be a problem next to Deni.

Subjectively, I liked what I saw from Wallace in the games I watched last season. Pundits criticize his deficient first step but I like his poise and IQ, quite Jrue Holiday-like (not saying he is the same caliber player though!).

[Frichuela]

I look at black and see ...Dyson daniels. I would rather not grab a bust like that.

Dyson Daniels is a bust...?

Im out on this convo as Im just repeating myself. Anthony Black has elite positional size and elite feel/IQ/vision.
He's Delon Wright with more vision/feel and better pop athletically. Or Derrick White with better passing.

Im not trying to rag on anyone, but I think people have been duped too much in recent history about versatile forwards with decent vision (I.E. Jalen Williams, Dalen Terry, Cunningham, Barnes, Franz Wagner, Deni, etc.). So people compare Black to these guys and worry about the shooting.
Black needs to be compared to Lonzo, Lamelo, Haliburton, and Giddey. Black is a TRUE PG. Im fascinated that everyone is quick to put the Thompson twins a tier or 2 above him. Black is the same size, but better vision, better defender, higher IQ/Feel, better spatial awareness, better touch/finishing... No tangible difference in shooting.
Taking a guy like Hendricks over Black is mind numbingly stupid.

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The stat on his mid-range shooting (17 ft to <3 pt per Synergy) is reassuring. Also, I have seen games when Black uses floaters effectively.

Also as I posted above I like his defense and I think he has underrated athleticism. However, his bad 3 pt shooting and reluctancy to pull the trigger worries me...

[joshuacf]

If you put a gun to my head and ask.
Pick one.
Cason Wallace and his medical issues.
Or
Black and legit concerns he can transition to a legit NBA point guard with his advanced stats

I'm taking Wallace every time

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I think gambitx is making a valid case here.

The injury concerns with Wallace are key and, for that, we have to trust the professionals in the field (i.e. Wizards medical team) to make the right assessment.

Other than that, his 1 and done statistical production shows promise:

* Compared to Black. Defensively, both are strong performers. Wallace had the statistical edge on steals and DBPM but Black has better rebounding and DWS. Offensively, Wallace had clearly better production: better 3pt %, FT % and assists and much better assists/TO ratio. Also Wallace has better EFG%, 3PA rate, OBPM and OWS. Offensively, Black is only better in his impressive FTA rate.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=anthony-black--cason-wallace

* Compared to former Kentucky guards. Wallace holds his own statistically, particularly defensively where he has arguably the best defensive stats compared to Maxey, Quickley, SGA and Wall. Wallace was best at steals and DBPM and tied as the best at blocks. Offensively, he is the worst at points/36 but is tied with SGA for the best EFG%.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=cason-wallace--john-wall--shai-gilgeous-alexander--tyrese-maxey--immanuel-quickley--tyty-washington

I think if Ausar drops his upside probably merits the pick but if the decision is between Black or Wallace, the latter looks like a better prospect (assuming the medical side is satisfactory). Black's inability to shoot well from 3 is worrying and fit-wise it would be a problem next to Deni.

Subjectively, I liked what I saw from Wallace in the games I watched last season. Pundits criticize his deficient first step but I like his poise and IQ, quite Jrue Holiday-like (not saying he is the same caliber player though!).

The Black vs. Wallace debate comes down to what a Franchise in our position should be looking for. I think we should be targeting potential over a safe floor.

Wallace might have the lowest ceiling of anyone in the lottery. He's certainly near the bottom. Black at least has middle-tier potential in terms of the lottery prospects.

We need a franchise cornerstone, not a safe pick whose 95% outcome is Jrue Holiday. Realistically, that means we shouldn't take Black either, but we really really shouldn't take Cason.

[gambitx777]

If you put a gun to my head and ask.
Pick one.
Cason Wallace and his medical issues.
Or
Black and legit concerns he can transition to a legit NBA point guard with his advanced stats

I'm taking Wallace every time

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I think gambitx is making a valid case here.

The injury concerns with Wallace are key and, for that, we have to trust the professionals in the field (i.e. Wizards medical team) to make the right assessment.

Other than that, his 1 and done statistical production shows promise:

* Compared to Black. Defensively, both are strong performers. Wallace had the statistical edge on steals and DBPM but Black has better rebounding and DWS. Offensively, Wallace had clearly better production: better 3pt %, FT % and assists and much better assists/TO ratio. Also Wallace has better EFG%, 3PA rate, OBPM and OWS. Offensively, Black is only better in his impressive FTA rate.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=anthony-black--cason-wallace

* Compared to former Kentucky guards. Wallace holds his own statistically, particularly defensively where he has arguably the best defensive stats compared to Maxey, Quickley, SGA and Wall. Wallace was best at steals and DBPM and tied as the best at blocks. Offensively, he is the worst at points/36 but is tied with SGA for the best EFG%.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=cason-wallace--john-wall--shai-gilgeous-alexander--tyrese-maxey--immanuel-quickley--tyty-washington

I think if Ausar drops his upside probably merits the pick but if the decision is between Black or Wallace, the latter looks like a better prospect (assuming the medical side is satisfactory). Black's inability to shoot well from 3 is worrying and fit-wise it would be a problem next to Deni.

Subjectively, I liked what I saw from Wallace in the games I watched last season. Pundits criticize his deficient first step but I like his poise and IQ, quite Jrue Holiday-like (not saying he is the same caliber player though!).

The Black vs. Wallace debate comes down to what a Franchise in our position should be looking for. I think we should be targeting potential over a safe floor.

Wallace might have the lowest ceiling of anyone in the lottery. He's certainly near the bottom. Black at least has middle-tier potential in terms of the lottery prospects.

We need a franchise cornerstone, not a safe pick whose 95% outcome is Jrue Holiday. Realistically, that means we shouldn't take Black either, but we really really shouldn't take Cason.

Based on what though? Wallace is a really good defender. Has good offence numbers, can shoot. He's comparable to guards like SGA and Maxy. I don't think his potential is any less than blacks when blacks is all based on physical attributes that his advanced numbers don't back up as a PG. If you wanna claim he's a small forward that's a different conversation. But as a PG I don't see how you can take black over Wallace for anything other than medical concerns.

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[payitforward]

I have found it almost impossible to come to grips with this draft. Actually... forget the "almost."

Of the guys Dat has listed from 4 down to 16, the only ones about whom I have any confidence at all are Dereck Lively & Gradey Dick.

Some guys Dat has a ways down the list look like they might be solid: Strawther, T J-D, Colby Jones & Kobe Brown, for example.

Given our terrible roster, I'd trade down -- say with the Nets for 21, 22 & 51 & hope to bring home Potziemski & Jones, plus Strawther at 42, Kobe Brown at 51 Jordan Miller @57, and D'Moi Hodge undrafted.

Clear the deck & rebuild.

[joshuacf]

I think gambitx is making a valid case here.

The injury concerns with Wallace are key and, for that, we have to trust the professionals in the field (i.e. Wizards medical team) to make the right assessment.

Other than that, his 1 and done statistical production shows promise:

* Compared to Black. Defensively, both are strong performers. Wallace had the statistical edge on steals and DBPM but Black has better rebounding and DWS. Offensively, Wallace had clearly better production: better 3pt %, FT % and assists and much better assists/TO ratio. Also Wallace has better EFG%, 3PA rate, OBPM and OWS. Offensively, Black is only better in his impressive FTA rate.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=anthony-black--cason-wallace

* Compared to former Kentucky guards. Wallace holds his own statistically, particularly defensively where he has arguably the best defensive stats compared to Maxey, Quickley, SGA and Wall. Wallace was best at steals and DBPM and tied as the best at blocks. Offensively, he is the worst at points/36 but is tied with SGA for the best EFG%.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=cason-wallace--john-wall--shai-gilgeous-alexander--tyrese-maxey--immanuel-quickley--tyty-washington

I think if Ausar drops his upside probably merits the pick but if the decision is between Black or Wallace, the latter looks like a better prospect (assuming the medical side is satisfactory). Black's inability to shoot well from 3 is worrying and fit-wise it would be a problem next to Deni.

Subjectively, I liked what I saw from Wallace in the games I watched last season. Pundits criticize his deficient first step but I like his poise and IQ, quite Jrue Holiday-like (not saying he is the same caliber player though!).

The Black vs. Wallace debate comes down to what a Franchise in our position should be looking for. I think we should be targeting potential over a safe floor.

Wallace might have the lowest ceiling of anyone in the lottery. He's certainly near the bottom. Black at least has middle-tier potential in terms of the lottery prospects.

We need a franchise cornerstone, not a safe pick whose 95% outcome is Jrue Holiday. Realistically, that means we shouldn't take Black either, but we really really shouldn't take Cason.

Based on what though? Wallace is a really good defender. Has good offence numbers, can shoot. He's comparable to guards like SGA and Maxy. I don't think his potential is any less than blacks when blacks is all based on physical attributes that his advanced numbers don't back up as a PG. If you wanna claim he's a small forward that's a different conversation. But as a PG I don't see how you can take black over Wallace for anything other than medical concerns.

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You keep going back to defense. Defense doesn't make a player high potential. Offense makes a player high potential. Look at the top 10 players in the league at any given time. With very few exceptions, all of them have very developed offensive games, and defense is considered a plus.

Black has more potential than Cason. It's as simple as that. Black is more athletic and has much better size. Those things are in general what makes a player high potential, especially when you consider Cason doesn't have a developed "bag" a la Trae Young or Curry.

In regards to Maxey and Shai, Shai's potential was considered to be much much higher than Cason's. Shai was 6'6 with a 7-foot wingspan. Maxey is a nice player who isn't and will never be a franchise cornerstone.

[payitforward]

The Wallace vs. Black debate just above suffers from the problem of all such, which is that it winds up hiding exactly 50% of the possible solutions to the debate -- they might both be bad, or they might both be good.

[machu46]

I don't hate Anthony Black and think he has a decent floor as rotation level wing who can guard 3 positions but I struggle getting excited about his on-the-ball prospects being guard who isn't an outside shooter and lacks a degree of explosiveness to offset it. Nor is he an aggressive scorer. I liked Josh Giddey coming out because he was a willing shooter even if the percentages weren't great but his PG skill at 6-8 was high level. Black strikes me more as a 'straw that stirs the drink' type of connector - what we hope Deni would become. He also made less than (1) college 3 a game so he's a long way from being guarded tightly at the NBA 3 pt line. I also would not think highly of Black & Avdija playing together due to obvious spacing concerns.

In most drafts, Black's fast processor, ball-handling and skill should guarantee him a late lottery pick. I have him in that 12 to 15 range. Drafting him at 8 isn't the worst thing in the world but I'm confident they'd be leaving better players on the board.

If you adjust for the pace of play of Adelaide vs. Arkansas, he really didn't attempt all that many more 3's than Black was attempting at Arkansas, and like Black, they were mainly of the "nobody is guarding me" variety. Black was also more aggressive in terms of getting shots up inside the 3 point line compared to Giddey as well.

Edit: I was pretty down on Giddey as a prospect though and while he's exceeded expectations, I still think he's generally overrated in league circles. And yet I find myself kinda high on Black this year, though I think that's at least in part due to the draft class. I do think Black's ability to get to the rim and the foul line maybe gives him a better chance of being a respectable scorer relative to what I thought of Giddey at the time. At any rate, I don't view Black as a slam dunk by any means but I think he's a relatively safe prospect and good value at 8.

[doclinkin]

I have found it almost impossible to come to grips with this draft. Actually... forget the "almost."

Of the guys Dat has listed from 4 down to 16, the only ones about whom I have any confidence at all are Dereck Lively & Gradey Dick.

I would agree while adding Taylor Hendricks to the list. Chiefly by asking the question if their skill or talent directly translates.

Dereck Lively is a tall remarkably athletic player in the NCAA and will be a tall athletic player in the NBA. Prior to a reduced role in college, he has shown other complete game skills that suggest he is not slow of mind on court. I don't see him suffering from the syndrome of players like Wiseman, JaVale, Jaxson Hayes who are similar outliers in size and athleticism, but who never developed a complete game and could not defend out to the FT line. This last point earns Lively playing time. You can sub him in on defense and he won't be game-planned off the floor by teams that force a switch on every play.

Gradey Dick is a tall sharpshooter with a bit of a handle and a quick trigger. He moves well both off the ball and attacking close-outs to pull up. These skills translate to the NBA. A player like this bends defenses and requires adjustments by opposing coaches.

Taylor Hendricks is also a tall shooter with outside range. He will still be a tall shooter with range in the NBA. He adds shotblocking and steals, lob threat, a 9 foot reach, rim running, is active on both ends of the court, doesn't foul. Shooting, activity and height will earn him playing time. If Daniel Gafford could shoot from outside he'd be a starter at PF.

(Knock the AAC if you want but UCF played a tougher strength of schedule than 23 of the teams that played in March Madness, including against the #1 defense in the NCAA in Houston. Taylor played well).

For whatever reason these players are mostly not in the discussion at 8. Mostly due to upside. Still, I think Dick and Hendricks fall into the category of players who are swiftly productive on their first contract. Lively, well, Bigs often take a bit longer to develop, so who knows.